Werewolf CXII - Dueling Wizards III - The Living Thread

[Nogrod]

Originally Posted by Kuruharan

Sure.
And I'm afraid that is as much of an answer as I can give to Nog's question too.

The answer to that question is baked into the geography of the game.

I know it may be frustrating and seem like I don't understand the question, but I could not possibly answer that particular question. It is part of the game. The most definitive statement I can make is that the game is still going on right now. The Party has not won. Everyone can make of that what they will.

Okay.

That makes one think indeed...

When there is not a clear-cut answer, something is tricksy.

Without any major light bulbs immediately flashing over my head I'll pull back to reading how D1 went, but this sure is interesting indeed. We need to thinks about this as well.

[Lalaith]

I've read over today's posts. Brinn, Legate and Mith are offering opinions that are both trenchant and sensible and thus to me feeling non-wolfish.

Well...Kuru's "clarification" is interesting. However despite this I'm still feeling a bit concerned about the people who are arguing that there might have been no wolf created on Night One. Maybe I'm just a simple uncomplicated sort of girl but I maintain that it seems such a weird and risky strategy for a EW to adopt that as a theory it's exactly the sort of bone a bunch of wolves might concoct to throw to the crowd to get them off the scent. So Nerwen, Eomer, Boro, ho hum to y'all. Nogs is coming up with lots of theories all scattergun-like, including the no-wolf-on-N1, but that's his way, as I recall, and so I'll hold off there for a while.

[Nogrod]

Originally Posted by Lalaith

Nogs is coming up with lots of theories all scattergun-like, including the no-wolf-on-N1, but that's his way, as I recall, and so I'll hold off there for a while.

I've been thinking it most probable that there was a wolf already on D1 - why would I have spent the last hour reading the posts from yesterDay if I didn't think there was?

If there was only the EW on D1 the D1 was mostly futile as there is no relations to read - as there were none. But if there was a wolf and an EW, then it becomes at least theoretically possible to find something.

I asked about it because I wanted to know whether we could actually KNOW it or whether we could only think it probable. I mean if N2 kill is impossible with a wolf turned only on that very same Night, then it is a proven thing there was a wolf on D1 in the game (as there was a confirmed kill) - if it is possible for the EW to make her first wolf and make a kill during the same Night, then it would be only probable there still was a wolf among us on D1.

The only thing that now kind of troubles me is the way Kuru has avoided answering that question... but without any better leads I'lll stick to the idea that there was a wolf on D1 and I'm currently looking for any jackpots on D1 voting which ended in a tie - so is there anything looking like a helping hand -situation where a baddie helped another to avoid the gallows?

Hope that cleared my meaning...

[Boromir88]

Originally Posted by Nogrod

The only thing that now kind of troubles me is the way Kuru has avoided answering that question... but without any better leads I'lll stick to the idea that there was a wolf on D1 and I'm currently looking for any jackpots on D1 voting which ended in a tie - so is there anything looking like a helping hand -situation where a baddie helped another to avoid the gallows?

Hope that cleared my meaning...

Well clearly I was helping Lottie. Take it or leave it by me saying it wasn't intentional...it happened in a mess of day 1 deadline voting fury where I thought I was finally going to have some time all to myself for a little while. And it turns out to actually helping Lottie. Sort of like Gollum and the ring episode? His actions in forcibly taking the Ring, and the Ring being destroyed was merely an unintended effect by Gollum's taking the Ring.

That doesn't mean other people voting last night weren't trying to help for other reasons. Mine were unintentional.

[Lalaith]

Originally Posted by Nogrod

I


The only thing that now kind of troubles me is the way Kuru has avoided answering that question... but without any better leads I'lll stick to the idea that there was a wolf on D1 and I'm currently looking for any jackpots on D1 voting which ended in a tie - so is there anything looking like a helping hand -situation where a baddie helped another to avoid the gallows?

Hope that cleared my meaning...

Yep - fair 'nuff

[Eönwë]

Originally Posted by Nogrod

ithout any better leads I'lll stick to the idea that there was a wolf on D1 and I'm currently looking for any jackpots on D1 voting which ended in a tie - so is there anything looking like a helping hand -situation where a baddie helped another to avoid the gallows?

Ok, semi-crazy conspiracy theory incoming: What about a Boro-wolf and EW-Lottie? In this scenario, Lottie does genuinely agree that a no-lynch is better for the side of good and decided to sacrifice Boro, who goes with it.

Pros (for the side of evil):
- EW-Lottie doesn't get found out as EW as soon.
- Strong wolf presence in the Dead Thread in the form of Boro (with 3 more future potential-wolves to spare!).
- Lottie manages to distance herself from Boro (if he gets found out as a wolf).

Cons (for the side of evil):
- Does actually mean that a wolf gets killed (but in this case Boro would be the spare one).

edit: x-posted with Legate

[Loslote]

Originally Posted by Eönwë

Ok, semi-crazy conspiracy theory incoming: What about a Boro-wolf and EW-Lottie? In this scenario, Lottie does genuinely agree that a no-lynch is better for the side of good and decided to sacrifice Boro, who goes with it.

Interesting idea. While we're throwing out ideas that have been (I assume) percolating all Day, I would like to say that out of everyone here, you're the one who feels the most different compared to yesterDay. Also, that you would have been a great candidate to have been turned last Night, since as far as I can tell you were vaguely trusted by a majority of the village - and that killing Morsul offered you pretty good cover. With everyone's eyes on me as the major proponent of the no lynch, your involvement didn't garner any discussion at all. Whereas yesterDay you were at the front of discussion, toDay I feel like you've been trying to blend into the background more.

Now, I'm not saying you *were* turned last Night, but I am saying that if we're floating insubstantial theories, I'd like this one to be out there, too. I'd still rather vote for Zil toDay. I'm much more confident in my suspicion of him than I am in this theory about you. But I'd like to point out the vibes I'm picking up now, just to have them out there in the case that I continue to find you suspicious later on.

To summarize: I don't want to forget that on Day 2, your posts felt more cautious than they did on Day 1. I suspect you might have been turned last Night, but I have no proof, and therefore I simply want to quickly jot that down.

EDIT: xed with Legate

[Eomer of the Rohirrim]

I'm beginning to suspect Loslote, which has surprised me somewhat because I liked her posts on Day 1.

Go back to the Nerwen/Inzil spat - I had to read this 3 times (and get Cailin to explain it to me ) before I understood what the issue was. It seemed very minor to me. Yet Loslote picked up on (post #186) and repeated the term 'slip' in a non-committal way. Also, she criticises Inzil for voting Nerwen with no justification (I agree, but he's not the only one with a vapid Day 1 vote) and focusing on game mechanics (also something which many of us have done today and yesterday).

Then (post #197), it's pretty minor but there's just something about it - she returns to the attack on Inzil but seems to balance it out by 'feeling better about Nog' at the same time. 'Wouldn't mind voting for Zil today" indeed. I dunno - it's just the first time so far I've read something and thought there might be something behind it.

[Thinlómien]

Originally Posted by Eomer of the Rohirrim

Go back to the Nerwen/Inzil spat - I had to read this 3 times (and get Cailin to explain it to me ) before I understood what the issue was. It seemed very minor to me.

Now can someone please explain it to me too. I have read it 2 times and I still didn't see Zil saying anything weird.

Originally Posted by Nogrod

Of those who did not vote in the end (but participated) Nerwen is kind of a hard one to say: she has her own timezone quite afar from others and her not appearing at the DL is not unusual – she was quite vague with her attitude towards the no-lynch policy though so that + not voting might be a nice lay-low tactics.

You mean, Nerwen never votes on Day1 anyway.

Originally Posted by Lottie

He also kept a lower profile on Day 1 than some others, though - he didn't actually vote, I don't think, and kept out of the actual fray for the most part.

That could be considered fishy, but given that he loudly advocated no lynch on Day1 it's not half as shady as you make it sound.

I'd like to go to bed soon, and avoid the voing chaos this time, so I'm gonna vote soon. And please everyone, remember to keep track of the general situation before you vote, we don't want another tie. That novel you want to write to back up your vote can wait until you've voted. You don't want to crosspost with everyone, trust me.


edit: xed with the last trio

[Thinlómien]

Eönwë -

1) good. That makes sense.

2) let's not debate this now when the dl is in an hour and a bit but rather during the first half of toMorrow.

[Loslote]

Originally Posted by Thinlómien

That could be considered fishy, but given that he loudly advocated no lynch on Day1 it's not half as shady as you make it sound.

I didn't mean it to seem shady, I just meant that of the people advocating for no lynch, he was probably least likely to face scrutiny the next Day, which might have made him a more appealing person to turn. Again, all wild speculation.

[Eönwë]

Originally Posted by Thinlómien

Now can someone please explain it to me too. I have read it 2 times and I still didn't see Zil saying anything weird.

Basically, I think it's the bit I bolded below:

Originally Posted by Inziladun

x/d with the Mod- so the EW and wolves might have had some benefit to going after a possible GW Morsul- except they didn't have this clarification at that time.

[Mithalwen]

I know she hasn't been posting but it maybe would be nice to get Pervinca's name right..

[Nogrod]

Just looking at Eönwe's plan makes me more confident about not even thinking about that kind of a "deal". There's everything to go wrong and be misinterpreted.

Also it ties the hands of people in the Dead thread, making being there totally redundant (there can be situations where it would be more crucial to know someone else's than the "oldest" residents role)- or nauseatingly infuriating when things even can't go like "decided" (like there are several kills at a time and then there is no communication at all as to which one is checked).

Unless the game ends very suddenly and fast, most of us are going to be there and wouldn't you like to play as well after death? The Dead can't pass any reliable information - as facts to be used in proofs -but they see more. And well you'll be there soon too with all your wits and capabilities of organizing things and seeing what is the best for the villagers you have here in the living thread - but then you will be empowered with lots of other stuff as well the living here have no clue.

The reasonable way - to me - would be that the Dead play the game there and sort things out as best they can and then empower a vote for anyone who is to them the most suspicious-looking. And trust me - "been there, done that" - when you get there yourself, you understand what I mean. If the game lasts any longer than a few Days, the actual game will be there, not here.

Okay. End of my rant. Sorry.

[Boromir88]

Originally Posted by Thinlómien

Now can someone please explain it to me too. I have read it 2 times and I still didn't see Zil saying anything weird.

x/d with the Mod- so the EW and wolves might have had some benefit to going after a possible GW Morsul- except they didn't have this clarification at that time.~Inzil #158

It comes off as Inzil saying he knows for sure the EW and wolves were not aware of the question whether the GW would be revealed if the EW/wolves tried to kill the GW.

Nerwen asks later how Inzil knows this...for myself it's not the possible "slip" itself, but the posts and reactions afterwards.

Inzil 176:

Ahem. Because Kuru just said it toDay?

Inzil 177:

And yes, I know the baddies could have asked Kuru themselves, but I don't think it likely.

Nerwen's response 178:

Actually, I'd have thought it very likely... and you were so certain a moment ago...

[Thinlómien]

Originally Posted by Legate

Are you shocked by Nerwen, shocked by that Morsul seems innocent to you, shocked by that he was killed if he seemed like an ordinary villager, or?

The last.

Originally Posted by Eönwë

Ok, semi-crazy conspiracy theory incoming: What about a Boro-wolf and EW-Lottie? In this scenario, Lottie does genuinely agree that a no-lynch is better for the side of good and decided to sacrifice Boro, who goes with it.

I think that's not semi-crazy, that's actually one of the few theories that makes sense. It just seems quite unlikely that our top lynch candidates would have been the wolf and the EW, and bold of them to play it this way. But that's one of the reasons I haven't been too keen on scrutinizing Boro and Lottie toDay - we shouldn't get fixated on this logical but rather wild scenario.

And I agree very much with Lottie about Eönwë. There's something about him that's different, and he would have been a good (but obviously also short-sighted) pick from the EW. I mean picking the villager that is the most widely trusted/ considered reasonable/productive is great if it works but not exactly sneaky. But in this case I wouldn't be surprised... which kinda sucks for Eönwë of course if it's true - imagine being such a good good guy that you're turned evil and then lynched because you were the obvious choice because you were so good?

edit: xed with Eomer

[Loslote]

Originally Posted by Thinlómien

And I agree very much with Lottie about Eönwë. There's something about him that's different, and he would have been a good (but obviously also short-sighted) pick from the EW. I mean picking the villager that is the most widely trusted/ considered reasonable/productive is great if it works but not exactly sneaky. But in this case I wouldn't be surprised... which kinda sucks for Eönwë of course if it's true - imagine being such a good good guy that you're turned evil and then lynched because you were the obvious choice because you were so good?

He also kept a lower profile on Day 1 than some others, though - he didn't actually vote, I don't think, and kept out of the actual fray for the most part. I'm not absolutely convinced, but I wanted to mention it in part because I'm going to have to leave for an hour or so soon, I'm not sure I'll be back in time to do much, and if I end up lynched (which is always a possibility), I didn't want to go to the Dead Thread without ever having said something.

EDIT: xed with Nog

[Nerwen]

Back. Will post when I've caught up.

[satansaloser2005]

....I need a drink. I'm home though, so there's that.

[Eönwë]

Just to clarify how the empowering thing would work (since there's been some discussion):

1. Let's assume we start with today's living as the options. First of all, we alphabetise the list (toDay is an even Day so it's in Z->A order). That gives us:

Thinlómien
Shastanis Althreduin
satansaloser2005
Pervencia Took
Nogrod
Nerwen
Mithalwen
Loslote
Legate of Amon Lanc
Lalaith
Inziladun
Eönwë
Eomer of the Rohirrim
Brinniel
Boromir88

2. Now, if someone is selected from the first half of the names (which includes the person exactly in the middle), then the person is PREY (to use Kuru's terms), i.e., good, and if they are in the second half, they are a PREDATOR (also Kuru's term), i.e., evil. This gives us:

If the person is PREY:
Thinlómien
Shastanis Althreduin
satansaloser2005
Pervencia Took
Nogrod
Nerwen
Mithalwen
Loslote

If the person is a PREDATOR:
Legate of Amon Lanc
Lalaith
Inziladun
Eönwë
Eomer of the Rohirrim
Brinniel
Boromir88


3. Then, based on whether the Target (i.e. the person whose role was found out the Night before) is innocent or guilty, someone who is a known innocent (i.e. someone genuinely found out to be an innocent, or if no such person appears, a Night kill, e.g. Morsul - I assume the Dead Thread can come up with a system, but my suggestion would be to cycle through those lynched and definitively proven to be innocent) picks which of the people in the appropriate PREDATOR or PREY list is voted.

Of course, if we want to be particularly careful about the list (and possibly EW attempts at manipulation), we could, for example, after Day 4 (since this will only start on Day 3), decide to use a different ordering, e.g. Kuru's narration order (forwards one day, backwards the next), and so on.

edit: x-ed since my last.

[Eönwë]

Also, just to clarify the other part, the idea was that the Target would be the non-Night-killed-person in the Dead Thread who has been there the longest and has not had their role revealed should be picked.

I say non-Night-killed because while it's an interesting idea, it seems pretty crazy to imagine the EW Night-killing one of their own, and even if they did, it seems even more unlikely that it could happen more than once (once they're down to non-replenishable wolves), and one wouldn't screw up the system enough to make much a difference.

edit: x-ed since my last.

[Legate of Amon Lanc]

Originally Posted by Eönwë

Ok, semi-crazy conspiracy theory incoming: What about a Boro-wolf and EW-Lottie? In this scenario, Lottie does genuinely agree that a no-lynch is better for the side of good and decided to sacrifice Boro, who goes with it.

Pros (for the side of evil):
- EW-Lottie doesn't get found out as EW as soon.
- Strong wolf presence in the Dead Thread in the form of Boro (with 3 more future potential-wolves to spare!).

It is not so crazy a theory, although would be really bold. The "strong presence in the form of Boro" would make sense in terms of how Boro has been acting here (and I am sure he would be quite a presence), but that is very little to base the whole thing on, in my opinion.

Originally Posted by Loslote

Interesting idea. While we're throwing out ideas that have been (I assume) percolating all Day, I would like to say that out of everyone here, you're the one who feels the most different compared to yesterDay. Also, that you would have been a great candidate to have been turned last Night, since as far as I can tell you were vaguely trusted by a majority of the village - and that killing Morsul offered you pretty good cover. With everyone's eyes on me as the major proponent of the no lynch, your involvement didn't garner any discussion at all. Whereas yesterDay you were at the front of discussion, toDay I feel like you've been trying to blend into the background more.

Originally Posted by Thinlómien

And I agree very much with Lottie about Eönwë. There's something about him that's different, and he would have been a good (but obviously also short-sighted) pick from the EW. I mean picking the villager that is the most widely trusted/ considered reasonable/productive is great if it works but not exactly sneaky. But in this case I wouldn't be surprised... which kinda sucks for Eönwë of course if it's true - imagine being such a good good guy that you're turned evil and then lynched because you were the obvious choice because you were so good?

I wanted to respond to Lottie, but basically Lommy said it pretty well. It is true that yesterDay, he was much more all over the place posting his suggestions. I think Lommy also has a point in that if he really seemed to be trusted, he would be an obvious pick to make a Wolf out of, but exactly the question is if that would have been too obvious. But also upon re-reading his posts, I am not sure if there is such a big difference in his style. He re-posted some of his yesterDay's charts, then he commented here and there on the proceedings. That style does not differ so much in my opinion.

Originally Posted by Eönwë

2. Now, if someone is selected from the first half of the names (which includes the person exactly in the middle), then the person is PREY (to use Kuru's terms), i.e., good, and if they are in the second half, they are a PREDATOR (also Kuru's term), i.e., evil.

Ok, I really don't want to talk about this this little before DL, but just a note - are we sure "prey" and "predator" equal "good" and "evil"? Because if so, why not use such terms. (In other words, like what might e.g. a Ranger, or even more a Hunter identify as. That's a very "predatory" role.)

Ok! Off to finish going through toDay's posts and then I will try to also figure out something sensible out of this and vote.

EDIT: x-ed with some bunch of people somewhere around since my last probably

[Nerwen]

I need to think some more about this Dead Thread situation. Can we make it work?

[Thinlómien]

Okay okay.

Boro and Nerwen, thanks for the clarifications. I actually think Zil looks better not worse because of this. But I also think Nerwen looks a bit more innocent. It starts to look like an innocent-on-innocent spat to me. Argghh.


edit: xed with Boro and Nerwen

[Nogrod]

What are you (Lommy & Legate) talking about the immediate DL? Isn't in 1 hour and 40 minutes from now, not 40 minutes from now?

[Nerwen]

Well, Steve, here's your plan from yesterDay.

Originally Posted by Eönwë

Just to clarify how the empowering thing would work (since there's been some discussion):

1. Let's assume we start with today's living as the options. First of all, we alphabetise the list (toDay is an even Day so it's in Z->A order). That gives us:

Thinlómien
Shastanis Althreduin
satansaloser2005
Pervencia Took
Nogrod
Nerwen
Mithalwen
Loslote
Legate of Amon Lanc
Lalaith
Inziladun
Eönwë
Eomer of the Rohirrim
Brinniel
Boromir88

2. Now, if someone is selected from the first half of the names (which includes the person exactly in the middle), then the person is PREY (to use Kuru's terms), i.e., good, and if they are in the second half, they are a PREDATOR (also Kuru's term), i.e., evil. This gives us:

If the person is PREY:
Thinlómien
Shastanis Althreduin
satansaloser2005
Pervencia Took
Nogrod
Nerwen
Mithalwen
Loslote

If the person is a PREDATOR:
Legate of Amon Lanc
Lalaith
Inziladun
Eönwë
Eomer of the Rohirrim
Brinniel
Boromir88


3. Then, based on whether the Target (i.e. the person whose role was found out the Night before) is innocent or guilty, someone who is a known innocent (i.e. someone genuinely found out to be an innocent, or if no such person appears, a Night kill, e.g. Morsul - I assume the Dead Thread can come up with a system, but my suggestion would be to cycle through those lynched and definitively proven to be innocent) picks which of the people in the appropriate PREDATOR or PREY list is voted.

Of course, if we want to be particularly careful about the list (and possibly EW attempts at manipulation), we could, for example, after Day 4 (since this will only start on Day 3), decide to use a different ordering, e.g. Kuru's narration order (forwards one day, backwards the next), and so on.

edit: x-ed since my last.

As I said, I think we should stipulate that the Dead should check lynchees only (except in the case of a Hunter kill). The idea being floated about yesterDay that the wolves might kill one of their own just to have a wolf in the Dead Thread... well, it could happen as a sort of extreme outlier, but I feel that planning around such a possibility means that half the information we get from the Dead will be effectively useless. What do other people think?

[satansaloser2005]

Quoting is being problematic from my phone, but I agree with your above post, Nerwen. The idea of the villain(s) doing that is hard to swallow. Even Phantom wouldn't consider such a gambit.

Hang on. Phantom's not secretly playing, is he?!

[Eönwë]

Originally Posted by Nerwen

As I said, I think we should stipulate that the Dead should check lynchees only (except in the case of a Hunter kill). The idea being floated about yesterDay that the wolves might kill one of their own just to have a wolf in the Dead Thread... well, it could happen as a sort of extreme outlier, but I feel that planning around such a possibility means that half the information we get from the Dead will be effectively useless. What do other people think?

Hey could you tell me where you mentioned this before? I know I was pushing for it quite heavily, but I don't remember getting any support on the issue:

Originally Posted by Eönwë

Also, just to clarify the other part, the idea was that the Target would be the non-Night-killed-person in the Dead Thread who has been there the longest and has not had their role revealed should be picked.

I say non-Night-killed because while it's an interesting idea, it seems pretty crazy to imagine the EW Night-killing one of their own, and even if they did, it seems even more unlikely that it could happen more than once (once they're down to non-replenishable wolves), and one wouldn't screw up the system enough to make much a difference.

Originally Posted by Eönwë

Yes, but for my second post what I was getting at was that for toNight, both people should vote for toDay's lynchee (so we don't have a wasted Night on that thread).

[Nerwen]

Originally Posted by Lalaith

I've read over today's posts. Brinn, Legate and Mith are offering opinions that are both trenchant and sensible and thus to me feeling non-wolfish.

Well...Kuru's "clarification" is interesting. However despite this I'm still feeling a bit concerned about the people who are arguing that there might have been no wolf created on Night One. Maybe I'm just a simple uncomplicated sort of girl but I maintain that it seems such a weird and risky strategy for a EW to adopt that as a theory it's exactly the sort of bone a bunch of wolves might concoct to throw to the crowd to get them off the scent. So Nerwen, Eomer, Boro, ho hum to y'all. Nogs is coming up with lots of theories all scattergun-like, including the no-wolf-on-N1, but that's his way, as I recall, and so I'll hold off there for a while.

Except I, for one, am not arguing it. I began by saying that I believed we could now be certain that a wolf had been created Night One, then realised we technically couldn't be [I]certain[I]. And I believe you'll find this is so of other people you list. The only one I recall actually promoting the idea is Boro- who has been generally weird, sure.

Edit: x'd with many.

[Nerwen]

Originally Posted by Eonwe

Basically, I think it's the bit I bolded below:

Correct, and also his reaction to my pointing it out strikes me as pretty "off". I mean it's not like I immediately started screaming A SLIP A SLIP OH SO EEEEVVIILLLL, but... he almost seems to act like I did.

Edit: x'd since my last.