Werewolf CXII - Dueling Wizards III - The Living Thread

[Loslote]

This is a much more interesting Day One than most, I think, with a lot of variables to take into consideration.

1. Has the wolf had a change to talk to the Evil Wizard yet? They can pm during the Night phase, but the choice is also made during the Night phase. If the wolf is flying blind, we might look to see shifts in behavior or attitude toMorrow, after the Evils have had a chance to talk to one another. We should be keeping an eye out for shifts in attitude towards other players in general, actually - the Gifteds probably won't have as much reason to change how they behave towards specific individuals.

2. Our chances of hitting either a baddie or a Gifted are really low toDay, which means this might be one of the few situations in which a no lynch Day One makes sense. Plus, since there aren't many wolves, they'll have to be a lot less careful about pack behavior, which means one of our standby clues won't come into play at first.

3. That being said, I have the feeling the Good Wizard will populate the Gifteds faster than the Evil Wizard will populate the wolves. Unless the Evil Wizard themself is in danger, I wouldn't be surprised if they stuck with just one wolf for a few Nights, to give themselves a chance to get the lay of the land before making their other two choices. Whereas one wolf is just as good as three, if the Evil Wizard can just make another when the first dies, the Gifteds are individually valuable, so I think the Good Wizard is a more motivated seller, so to speak. In which case, our odds of hitting a wolf might not increase after Day One, whereas our odds of hitting a Gifted might.

I haven't played a Dueling Wizards game before, so I've probably missed several crucial implications, but I'm excited to see how this game plays out.

[Morsul the Dark]

Originally Posted by Loslote

2. Our chances of hitting either a baddie or a Gifted are really low toDay, which means this might be one of the few situations in which a no lynch Day One makes sense. Plus, since there aren't many wolves, they'll have to be a lot less careful about pack behavior, which means one of our standby clues won't come into play at first.


I haven't played a Dueling Wizards game before, so I've probably missed several crucial implications, but I'm excited to see how this game plays out.

Certainly a good thought process, but the other side of the coin is a no lynch vote is in itself a bandwagon to easily hide in. It discourages suspicions and allegations and other information that can be dissected Day two.

[Loslote]

Originally Posted by Morsul the Dark

Certainly a good thought process, but the other side of the coin is a no lynch vote is in itself a bandwagon to easily hide in. It discourages suspicions and allegations and other information that can be dissected Day two.

True, I'm just not sure if there will be any information on Day Two regardless. There's MAYBE two baddies, and only one of them actually matters. No way the Evil Wizard sticks their head out for the wolf, so the only way we might get info is if we happen to hit on the Evil Wizard and the wolf tries to come to their rescue - 1/16 shot to draw anyone out, instead of the 1/4 chance we would have if we had a pack of four normal wolves. Suspect and throw accusations all you want - but I'm concerned that there's just not enough at stake for the wolves to actually act like wolves. I would almost call what we have toDay a werebear and an intelligent cobbler rather than a true wolf pack, and I think we need to strategize with that in mind.

I have a question, also - what happens if we try to lynch a Wizard? Do they just die, no chance for a Duel?

[Morsul the Dark]

Chance of getting a baddie with no lynch 0/16

Don't get me wrong mathematically I get the logic.

Then again I'm not entirely sure I get the whole wizard deal.

[Morsul the Dark]

*old man voice
Back in my day we had wolves and gifted not these new fangled wizards

[Loslote]

Originally Posted by Morsul the Dark

*old man voice
Back in my day we had wolves and gifted not these new fangled wizards

Actually, the Wizards predate the both of us.

[Morsul the Dark]

I've certainly never played a game with them. But time to pretend to be serious since my posts are mostly banter.

1. My last thought on lynch no lynch. If my math is correct we have a 6.25% of getting bad wizard today. If we forego lynching and lose a friend overnight that leaves 1/15. 6.66666% not going to lie seems to me we could easily have the same exact debate tomorrow which is one reason I'm not a fan of the policy.

2. The dead thread. Even if we make a few mistakes the dead thread could be a little Kharmic power to help us later on.

3. For clarification since the dead thread gives a voter a double vote does that change victory parameters for wolves? Usually it's wolves=innocents but in theory if it got to 1/1 the dead thread could break that tie?

4. I'm going to sleep.

[Inziladun]

Originally Posted by Morsul the Dark

Chance of getting a baddie with no lynch 0/16

Don't get me wrong mathematically I get the logic.

Then again I'm not entirely sure I get the whole wizard deal.

I'm usually averse to a no-lynch on general principles. As it is, we have, presumably, a Good Wizard, a Gifted, an Evil Wizard, and a wolf. A 2/16 chance of hitting one of the baddies or one of the good guys. Better than usual chance of innocent blood on Day One.

x/d with Morsul again

[Inziladun]

Originally Posted by Inziladun

A 2/16 chance of hitting one of the baddies or one of the good guys. Better than usual chance of innocent blood on Day One.

I meant, a 2/16 chance of hitting either Wizard or his minion. That's what being up for 17 hours does.

[Inziladun]

Originally Posted by Loslote

1. Has the wolf had a change to talk to the Evil Wizard yet? They can pm during the Night phase, but the choice is also made during the Night phase. If the wolf is flying blind, we might look to see shifts in behavior or attitude toMorrow, after the Evils have had a chance to talk to one another. We should be keeping an eye out for shifts in attitude towards other players in general, actually - the Gifteds probably won't have as much reason to change how they behave towards specific individuals.

I wouldn't think the wolf and the Wizard can have been in contact yet. The next Day though the wolf will know the Evil Wizard.

Originally Posted by Loslote

2. Our chances of hitting either a baddie or a Gifted are really low toDay, which means this might be one of the few situations in which a no lynch Day One makes sense. Plus, since there aren't many wolves, they'll have to be a lot less careful about pack behavior, which means one of our standby clues won't come into play at first.

Indeed. It would be a seriously lucky break to hit the Evil Wizard or the wolf now.
We have one good Seer here, the Good Wizard, but they're presumably at least going to create the Ranger before scrying.

Originally Posted by Loslote

I have the feeling the Good Wizard will populate the Gifteds faster than the Evil Wizard will populate the wolves. Unless the Evil Wizard themself is in danger, I wouldn't be surprised if they stuck with just one wolf for a few Nights, to give themselves a chance to get the lay of the land before making their other two choices. Whereas one wolf is just as good as three, if the Evil Wizard can just make another when the first dies, the Gifteds are individually valuable, so I think the Good Wizard is a more motivated seller, so to speak. In which case, our odds of hitting a wolf might not increase after Day One, whereas our odds of hitting a Gifted might.

Hmm. The more wolves, the better the odds one of them dies through lynching, or from the Hunter. I can see the attraction of not creating them all back-to-back. Both Wizards will be hiding from one another early on, I would think, so they're also not going to want to put themselves forward as scrying targets until they'e made their minions.

x/d with Morsul and Lottie