Ten Year Anniversary Game: Living Thread

[mormegil]

Originally Posted by Firefoot

Anyone else think Mac responded really defensively to what I thought was at best a rather half-hearted accusation? (referencing posts 280 and 281)?

Yes, and I've felt odd about Mac since early yesterday, hence my vote. Something feels very off. It seems a very forced attempt at being normal. Too much effort into it if that makes sense. To quote Frodo:

"Well, if he was one of the enemy, he would look fairer and...well, feel fouler, if you see what I mean."

He seems opposite to me, he's attempting to look fair but feels foul.


Mac and Sally top my list of suspects. Agan is a third because of the reaction yesterday to what I considered a bit of a joke but she is working at acquitting herself and I feel slightly better. There are others such as Eomer and Boro that I'd like to hear more from.

[Nerwen]

So I got caught up with things and haven't had time to do the more detailed analysis of yesterDay I'd planned. So just a few comments.

The Agan-Lommy spat. Why did so *many* people claim it "looked like wolf-on-wolf", "one of them must be a wolf", etc. I mean, yeah, it's possible, but reading it toDay it looks like just, well, a spat. And I've too often seen wolves circling a brawl between innocents...

Then we have the Nog-voters. Did Boro or Sally ever give reasons for their votes at all? If they did I missed it.

Then we have Form Nilping himself- some seem to think this looks innocent, but really I cannot imagine why anyone, good or evil, would give himself the third vote at that point.

Originally Posted by Firefoot

Anyone else think Mac responded really defensively to what I thought was at best a rather half-hearted accusation? (referencing posts 252 and 281)?

Originally Posted by mormegil

Yes, and I've felt odd about Mac since early yesterday, hence my vote. Something feels very off. It seems a very forced attempt at being normal. Too much effort into it if that makes sense. To quote Frodo:

"Well, if he was one of the enemy, he would look fairer and...well, feel fouler, if you see what I mean."

He seems opposite to me, he's attempting to look fair but feels foul.

I'll third this. There's something wrong about him. Maybe I'm biased by the fact that the last time I was in a game with someone who prattled "helpfully" on and on and on about statistical probabilities, that person turned out to have fur and fangs. (Mac himself must have known that what he was doing was an academic excercise with no real practical value.) And then there's the thing I noticed toDay (#242)- it does seems to me to have that glimpse-of-the-Nightly-discussion vibe.

Edit:x'd since morm at #285; clarification;word left out.

[Shastanis Althreduin]

Oh, and I missed you too, my sun in splendour.

[Shastanis Althreduin]

My internet came back up, so I thought I'd go back with my newfound ability to quote things and clarify what I was saying about the Nog votes -

Boro - 8:49
Phantom, Lottie - 8:55
Eomer - 8:56
Shasta - 8:57 (crossed with Eomer)
Sally - 8:59

So, Nog ended up receiving the bulk of the votes against him within five minutes of the deadline.

Edit: X'ed with Lottie. Also, when I said "quote" I meant "copy and paste".

[Boromir88]

What's your theory then? If you don't buy Sally's "Rune was killed for looking like a wolf" theory (understandable, I don't either) and you also don't think he was killed because the wolves thought he was a potential gifted, do you have any better suggestions? ~Greenie

As Rune didn't say a whole lot and even with his vote it was for someone he said he didn't want to see lynched (he was in the tie-votes camp), I'm thinking one pack decided to go no trace and are trying to set out an argument to make the reasons to kill Rune look like more and thus steer the lynch today.

Then we have the Nog-voters. Did Boro or Sally ever give reasons for their votes at all? If they did I missed it.~Nerwen

See 164:
http://forum.barrowdowns.com/showpos...&postcount=164

Nog stood out to me as kind of suspicious, just the way he was insisting that he didn't buy my reason for wanting to tie-votes so we don't lynch the Seer, because the odds of lynching the Seer were miniscule. In which case, I'm in the "never give me the odds" camp. I was shooting for a tied-vote, because I think that would have been the best Day 1 choice and with the late voters expressing they didn't want to vote for Agan or Form, I went with someone who I was suspicious of, in hopes there was enough support to tie the vote.

[Shastanis Althreduin]

Boro, were you suspicious of anyone else yesterday?

[Boromir88]

Originally Posted by Shastanis Althreduin

Boro, were you suspicious of anyone else yesterday?

I saw Lommy's side of the argument with Agan, so that made me suspicious of Agan (which today so far her and sally are the ones rising to the top of my suspects. I have to look more carefully what's going onbetween morm and Lottie). However, I was trying to employ a "wait and see" strategy with Agan and I was keeping in mind trying for a no lynch.

I'm disappointed it didn't work out that way, but not devastated as I don't think Nog's lynch cripples us. That is to say, of the 3 dead, I think it's most likely that he's a wolf, but I also don't think we lynched the Seer. I would hope the Dead want to check him on their first chance, because I don't think we can get much useful information knowing the roles of who the packs' killed. Knowing the roles of who we lynch will be more important.

[Shastanis Althreduin]

Originally Posted by Boromir88

I saw Lommy's side of the argument with Agan, so that made me suspicious of Agan (which today so far her and sally are the ones rising to the top of my suspects. I have to look more carefully what's going onbetween morm and Lottie). However, I was trying to employ a "wait and see" strategy with Agan and I was keeping in mind trying for a no lynch.

I'm disappointed it didn't work out that way, but not devastated as I don't think Nog's lynch cripples us. That is to say, of the 3 dead, I think it's most likely that he's a wolf, but I also don't think we lynched the Seer. I would hope the Dead want to check him on their first chance, because I don't think we can get much useful information knowing the roles of who the packs' killed. Knowing the roles of who we lynch will be more important.

I was just curious, because I literally had the exact same view that Nog had regarding whether or not to tie the vote -

Originally Posted by Shasta

I don't think lynching someone today changes the odds of the Seer dying toDay or toNight all that appreciably, Boro. I especially don't think it changes the odds enough to forego a 1-in-4 chance of killing a wolf today. Someone more numbers-oriented than I could run the math on that, probably, but the fact that our lynch potential is limited is enough for me to think we should take a shot at a wolf today.

- and you never mentioned it.

[Eomer of the Rohirrim]

Originally Posted by Nerwen

The Agan-Lommy spat. Why did so *many* people claim it "looked like wolf-on-wolf", "one of them must be a wolf", etc. I mean, yeah, it's possible, but reading it toDay it looks like just, well, a spat. And I've too often seen wolves circling a brawl between innocents...

Nerwen: I've just had a re-read of yesterday's action because, honestly, that is how I remembered it; but hardly anyone is suspecting wolf-on-wolf.

The closest is Form who says that at least one is probably a wolf. Rikae noted that it might look wolf-on-wolf in a different game, but given the rules of this game it would be senseless. Can't see much else.

I had also thought to find some baddies on the outskirts of this Finnish tussle but it's not so obvious.

[Nerwen]

Originally Posted by Eomer of the Rohirrim

Nerwen: I've just had a re-read of yesterday's action because, honestly, that is how I remembered it; but hardly anyone is suspecting wolf-on-wolf.

The closest is Form who says that at least one is probably a wolf. Rikae noted that it might look wolf-on-wolf in a different game, but given the rules of this game it would be senseless. Can't see much else.

I had also thought to find some baddies on the outskirts of this Finnish tussle but it's not so obvious.

Add Nilp and McCaber... I'd say that counts as "many". And Mac and Mith just sort of crawl on to the waggon. My point is that it all seemed to be built up out of very little, even by Day One standards.

Edit: x'd with Rikae.

[Mithalwen]

I will confess it was a lazy vote. I genuinely thought Agan was pulling a swifty and then when it was explained I really was too tired and too hacked off (remembering too late why I gave up playing werewolf) but sure that cotriving a no lynch would still be counterproductive as well as feeling to my instince unsporting.

So Agan was at that point ahead anyway so... yeah

Incidentally Nerwen, why do you think from the narrative indicates the lovers are still alive? I thought the itch thing might inidicate something but what I am not sure. The known unknown makes guesses far from educated. Tnighthe maulings certainly suggest both packs killed.

That of course doesn't exonerate either. I can't help thinking that instituting some strategy that basically pretty much asks innocents to take one for the team..or at least the gifted is quite a lot of help to the wolves as the ordos. Lots of lobotomised voting leaving no audit trail and narrowing the field for night kills.

[Nerwen]

Okay. I have to vote now, so-

++Macalaure
is the the best suspicion I have right now. Reasons already stated.

Just to complicate things, I am not entirely easy with the other two people who suspect him (morm and Firefoot either. Ah well. Running out of time.

I will try to be back later, though.
Edit:x'd with Mith.

[Nerwen]

Mith, toDay's narration said,

The Wolves will stop PMing now. The Lovers may continue to do so.

.

[Mithalwen]

Oh dear I didn't read down to the destructions. Useless... Thank you.

[Formendacil]

Posting from a break at work on my phone--spent time better spent eating catching up. So advance apologies for typos and brevity.

In the cold light of day, the Agan/Lommy spat seems to have vanished as quickly as it started,which is either proof of innocence or a sign of Nightly discussion in my mind, which makes me think for the first time that they might be littermates. It seems an outside chance, regardless, but if so, it would mean most of one pack would have voted pre-Nogwagon, suggesting that if there was a wolfish pileon in the Nogwagon, it was between members of a single pack, meaning thatan analysis of the Nogwaggoneers and only there correspondence with each other COULD suggest the composition of a pack.

That is probably too much weight for the slender evidence that is the Agan/Lommy dispute to hold up, but it's gone through my head and for now I think I'll likely look for wolves in the Nogwaggon.


A heads up that while I shpuld be around later a fair bit, I could be stuck on my phone until the deadline.