Ten Year Anniversary Game: Living Thread

[Shastanis Althreduin]

Boro, were you suspicious of anyone else yesterday?

[Boromir88]

Originally Posted by Shastanis Althreduin

Boro, were you suspicious of anyone else yesterday?

I saw Lommy's side of the argument with Agan, so that made me suspicious of Agan (which today so far her and sally are the ones rising to the top of my suspects. I have to look more carefully what's going onbetween morm and Lottie). However, I was trying to employ a "wait and see" strategy with Agan and I was keeping in mind trying for a no lynch.

I'm disappointed it didn't work out that way, but not devastated as I don't think Nog's lynch cripples us. That is to say, of the 3 dead, I think it's most likely that he's a wolf, but I also don't think we lynched the Seer. I would hope the Dead want to check him on their first chance, because I don't think we can get much useful information knowing the roles of who the packs' killed. Knowing the roles of who we lynch will be more important.

[Shastanis Althreduin]

Originally Posted by Boromir88

I saw Lommy's side of the argument with Agan, so that made me suspicious of Agan (which today so far her and sally are the ones rising to the top of my suspects. I have to look more carefully what's going onbetween morm and Lottie). However, I was trying to employ a "wait and see" strategy with Agan and I was keeping in mind trying for a no lynch.

I'm disappointed it didn't work out that way, but not devastated as I don't think Nog's lynch cripples us. That is to say, of the 3 dead, I think it's most likely that he's a wolf, but I also don't think we lynched the Seer. I would hope the Dead want to check him on their first chance, because I don't think we can get much useful information knowing the roles of who the packs' killed. Knowing the roles of who we lynch will be more important.

I was just curious, because I literally had the exact same view that Nog had regarding whether or not to tie the vote -

Originally Posted by Shasta

I don't think lynching someone today changes the odds of the Seer dying toDay or toNight all that appreciably, Boro. I especially don't think it changes the odds enough to forego a 1-in-4 chance of killing a wolf today. Someone more numbers-oriented than I could run the math on that, probably, but the fact that our lynch potential is limited is enough for me to think we should take a shot at a wolf today.

- and you never mentioned it.

[Boromir88]

Originally Posted by Shastanis Althreduin

I was just curious, because I literally had the exact same view that Nog had regarding whether or not to tie the vote -

- and you never mentioned it.

It's not a case of anyone arguing for a no-lynch is innocent, and anyone arguing to lynch is suspicious. It was the way he argued it:

I do not like the "let's not lynch anyone toDay" -meme (backed by the idea that we might lynch our Seer who is very important in this game) as the chances of lynching our seer are minuscule compared to any normal game and there are such loads of wolves around - and if we were to lynch the seer s/he could act on it before things get nasty thus at least securing another two dreams the next Night when the Ranger covered it for her/him...

There 24 players of which 1 is the Seer. The chances of hitting the Seer on D1 lynching = 1/24.

THere are 3+3 wolves in this game. The chances of getting a wolf on D1 lynching = 6/24 = 1/4. And add to that the practical stats we've just seen (a village is slightly better than random in picking up the villains), so yeah. Let's try and hunt a wolf toDay.
~Nog #96

I read it as Nog arguing to even consider the possibility of lynching the Seer day 1 with a 1/24 chance is wrong. I had stated before that I wanted to vote in a manner that would ensure we don't accidentally lynch the Seer, because to go into Day 2 with 4 dreams, instead of 2, can be a major advantage. An advantage and arguably most powerful Seer any village has had.

You stated it as a difference of opinion, which I generally accepted sounding like a reasonable difference of opinion. Give me some credit for being open-minded. There's more variables into my suspects than agreeing with me about whether to lynch or not.

We wouldn't have lost one of our lynch chances, we have the same number of chances depending on the size of the village, the only way you can gain more chances is Ranger save, or the packs target the same person. We would just be delaying one chance by a day, and I was swayed more by Form's argument to let the wolves make the first move, instead of taking a blind shot.

[Rikae]

Maybe my inclination to be suspicious of the Nog-wagon comes from the fact that I, myself, thought he looked quite innocent. His arguments against
the message-sending between threads seemed like normal 5 am Nog stuff. I mean, it looks like he overlooked some points while being quite vehement about
what he thought was best for the village & for everybody's enjoyment of the game in general. He jumped to conclusions a bit.
Why would a wolf act like that? As an elaborate way of looking innocent which also draws attention to himself? Seems unwise, not something Nogwolf would do.
Wanting to mess up communication between the dead and living? Well, a wolf could do that later, and more subtly.
Going on record as being against it on Day 1 just doesn't look wolfish to me.

Form also looks somewhat good for volunteering for the tie vote and self-voting, but I wouldn't put it entirely past a wolf. Doing so early on a wolf could
reasonably expect another wagon, with more behind it, to overtake them - especially with so many people opposing the idea of a tie.

The wishy-washiness of Firefoot's suspicions is the sort that often
strikes me as wolfy fishing "let's put forward some candidates but not commit, see if anyone nibbles".

Originally Posted by Boro

I'm getting suspicious of these couple folks who seem to be pushing Rune was looking gifted and that's why he was killed. I didn't see anything that would make me think Rune was the Seer...
I guess he could be one of the other gifteds, but seriously, nothing in his posts stood out that he was leaving gifted clues.

Well, I thought he might be gifted, because of his reaction to the Day 1 lynch/no lynch business. It's why I made such a point of "we shouldn't lynch people who always look suspicious"
- I was thinking specifically of Rune. I mean, there are a couple others, but after seeing his reaction I particularly thought he shouldn't be lynched.

Anyway, on the Nog wagon:

Boro voted Nog.

Phantom said:

Originally Posted by phantom

I still want to lynch Nog (and I don't understand how he has zero votes), but it would take five votes at this point.
(EDIT: Now he does have one.)

That... that's a pretty clear statement of intent, a sort of call to arms. I begin to wonder if:
tp was a wolf thinking Nog was gifted, calling the other wolves to the "hunt"? Seems far fetched. Or...
tp was innocent, Nog was a wolf, and they killed him last Night as a possible seer? I mean, everyone's going "tp was killed for being tp" or even "for asking to be killed",
but those seem like flimsy reasons.
It could be also that tp, as a wolf, thought he saw an opposing wolf in Nog.
There is, by the way, some benefit to a wolf in being instrumental in lynching another wolf. Most likely the lynched wolf's role will eventually come out, after all.
What I don't buy is that tp actually suspected Nog for opposing his plan.

I voted Lommy. I was hoping to get another candidate going there, as I found her argument with Agan reflected worse on her than on Agan - but nobody notices me, boo hoo.
Mac crossed with me to vote Agan.

The phantom votes Nog.

Now, this is the thing: anyone who wanted to save Agan at this point could have gone for Form, or for Lommy who was even with Nog.

Also, anyone who wanted to save Nog had Lommy, Form and Agan as options.

Loslote votes for Nog within a minute of tp.

Originally Posted by Loslote

because I'm much more confident in his guilt than in Agan's, and I'm feeling a little stubborn today, even if it probably won't happen.

By doing so she puts him ahead of Lommy and even with Form. If the vote was crossed, she would have thought it was even with Lommy and behind Form.
Lottie, was this a crossed vote or not? You didn't mark it as one.

Eomer votes for Nog, giving him the 4th vote, to Agan's 5. His reasoning...

Originally Posted by Eomer

This is total chaos, but because I don't buy the whole Agan/Lommy thing as wolvish - and because Form is probably innocent

is something I could see coming from either a wolf or an innocent.

Shasta votes Nog, crossed with Eomer.

Originally Posted by Shasta

It ended up being between Agan and Nog for me, and Nog's possible groundwork-laying for suspecting anyone on the grounds of not wanting to be lynched looks more suspicious than Agan's possible slip and general defensiveness.

This also looks more or less reasonable. I don't agree with it, but it doesn't seem particularly suspicious.

At this point Nog and Agan are tied, and along comes Sally and decides the lynch (she could also have left it a tie, if she wished).

Ok, so, a couple thoughts:

The Nog-wagon probably wasn't about protecting Agan.
It is possible that someone early in it wanted to protect Lommy (tp, Lottie) or Form (Lottie, Eomer).
Lottie and Sally need a closer look, I think.

That's all for now. I probably won't be around again until this evening.