Ten Year Anniversary Game: Living Thread

[Aganzir]

Originally Posted by mormegil

Agan, what are you suggesting here .

"We" obviously as in "us villagers", not as in "me and my wolf pack", duh!

Anyway I need to go, will be back later to vote but don't expect massive contributions from me tonight.

[Mithalwen]

It is dull, formulaic atd lacks room for inspiration, instinct and idiosyncrasy. It insults my soul. You might as well dispense with people and run it through a computer simulation. I am not a number.

[the phantom]

Originally Posted by Agan

I also like phantom. I don't necessarily find him innocent but I like him. Hey phants I missed you.

Right back at you, my lion.
And we both know you like me because you don't find me innocent.

Originally Posted by Agan

Normally I'd think it's a rubbish idea, but we learn very little from the lynches, way less than from the wolf kills.

Yeah. Innocents will be trying to lynch WWs. WWs will be trying to lynch WWs. I'm thinking the Day 1 vote might be very useless. But I doubt we can talk enough folks into forging a tie.

Originally Posted by morm

now that I'm caught up I have noticed something off in somebody's posting. I want to hold on to that name for now to continue to watch her/him

Ha ha, that's just the worst.

I'm in the same boat- I'm sure I see something here or there but what on earth does it mean? It could easily be Gifted vibes I'm getting. That's why (I've mentioned this in other games) that I often try and lynch an Ordo on Day 1 because the game hasn't been going long enough to begin differentiating Gifted/WW vibes.

[the phantom]

Originally Posted by Villager #22

It is dull, formulaic atd lacks room for inspiration, instinct and idiosyncrasy. It insults my soul. You might as well dispense with people and run it through a computer simulation. I am not a number.

Resistance is futile. You will be assimilated. We will add your biological and technological distinctiveness to our collective.

Originally Posted by Green

Nog you're killing me!

He can't do that now, silly. It's day.

(And yes, isn't cross-posting exciting!)

[the phantom]

Remember Day 1 of The Republic? 12 pages.

We're slacking.

[McCaber]

My own opinion is that every day without a lynch is a day the wolves can build up an uncontested lead and a day that gives us no real information to build off of in the future. Early lynches, arguments, and voting patterns are how you build solid cases and catch inconsistencies. Delaying for three days just leaves us that far behind when it comes to detective work.

[Rune Son of Bjarne]

You know what can really open up the game of football? Sepp Blatter resigning...

Also I enjoy plans I haven't thought up my self (especially if I can take some credit for them), long walks at the beach, and killing Europeans.

In short: I hate you all for being so active in this way to complicated game.

Have a good night.

[Rikae]

Anybody who is suggesting an ordo self-sacrifice toDay (Nilp? Phantom? Lottie?) fie on you. With this many wolves, we simply can't throw away chances at lynching them, or innocents who will count in the final tally.

With a 25% chance of getting a wolf now, I say we follow our instincts and vote for someone who is giving off wolf-vibes. We're an experienced group of players - if we're careful, we can avoid the Day 1 traps of confusing "weird" or "seerish" with "wolfy". I, at least, intend to try. Mac, you mentioned the odds of a wolf-lynch being the worst on Day 1, but if I recall correctly, they were still better than pure chance would give.

That said, I like much of Phantom's post #34. I'm all for a plan that lets us use the extra vote to gain not one, but two additional pieces of information. It also doesn't require much vote-coordination (something I am usually against in principle), only that we agree to an early deadline for the living vote and then designate, after voting, who signifies the last lynchee was guilty or innocent, among the voters for the two biggest wagons. Yes, if there's more than a 1 vote discrepancy the dead won't change the outcome, but knowing their opinion of the runner-up is still desirable.

As for baddies swaying the dead thread, it's unlikely they'll have the numbers there, and if they do, we're doing well. If it comes to that, we do still have the resurrecting roles to inform us of the situation.

But yeah, until the dead thread has three denizens, I intend to play old-fashioned WW and vote at the deadline for someone who seems hairy and/or a little too interested in biting people.

Edit: X'd with Nog and phantom.

[Nogrod]

Originally Posted by Rikae

That said, I like much of Phantom's post #34. I'm all for a plan that lets us use the extra vote to gain not one, but two additional pieces of information. It also doesn't require much vote-coordination (something I am usually against in principle), only that we agree to an early deadline for the living vote and then designate, after voting, who signifies the last lynchee was guilty or innocent, among the voters for the two biggest wagons. Yes, if there's more than a 1 vote discrepancy the dead won't change the outcome, but knowing their opinion of the runner-up is still desirable.

I have nothing against trying to work out ways to communicate with the Dead Thread or letting them guide us when it's possible - later in the game when we know something (or at least can make some inferences as to how this game works and what should be done). And with a situation where we have two (or three or...) strong lynching candidates later in the game it might be reasonable to try and make a tie so that the Dead might - if they knew something on those people and the innocents had the upper hand there - to help us with lynching a wolf with their swinging extra-vote.


Btw. how about we send the phantom into the Dead Thread as our first move? If he is innocent he is a great asset organizing things for us there - and there people could check his alignment (unlike here) so everyone would know whether to trust his ideas or not. It would be a win-win -situation.

[A Little Green]

Originally Posted by Rikae

As for baddies swaying the dead thread, it's unlikely they'll have the numbers there, and if they do, we're doing well. If it comes to that, we do still have the resurrecting roles to inform us of the situation.

True, but we can't count on that. For one thing, we might go through the entire game without either a lover or the ranger dying, thus having no one return from the Dead Thread to shed light on things. For another, yes we're doing well if the Dead Thread has a baddie majority, but we won't know that - and taking advice from the dead in such a situation might turn the odds against us surprisingly fast. Finally, we also can't count on everyone who has died to be active on the Dead Thread, which might sway the thread in favour of the wolves even if they were not a numerical majority.

Sorry for being such a pessimist by the way, I think I might be channelling Lommy...


EDIT: x-ed with Noggins

[Macalaure]

Grimoire thread, post #190

Chances of lynching wolves, based on the first 31 games played:
Day 1: 29% (sample size: 34)
Day 2: 31% (36)
Day 3: 43% (40)
Day 4: 35% (34)
Day 5: 34% (29)
Day 6: 29% (17)
Day 7: 55% (11)
Day 8: 0% (3)

All better than the random 25% we have, and it looks even better considering that most villages have a smaller wolf ratio than ours.

Now I'm itching to turn these into confidence intervals. But the sample sizes are small, so the result would probably not be very good. Maybe if I compiled it for all games played, but do I really want to do that?

[Kath]

*waves*

My head is reeling from all the rules. Jumped in at the deep end on this one!

While all the discussion about how to organise a lynch on Day 1 is fascinating, the history of Day 1s suggests this is a rather futile strategy. With people forgetting (...who? me!? ...) plus very last minute votes I suspect toDay will be it's usual all-out madness. Also I agree with whoever it was that worked out that missing a lynch toDay means the Dead Thread is half a day behind, which would be a shame as it seems like a really fun addition to the game.