T-I-G CVIII: Wolves of the Galadhrim (Game Thread)

[Loslote]

Originally Posted by Aganzir

It's possible they thought I could be a cobbler. I know I was being flimsy and sort of trigger-happy yesterday (although by no means enough to get three votes ). And I know that sometimes when I'm a wolf I leave suspected gifteds (or known innocents, as Kitanna - and Nerwen and sally - will remember, or general pains in the neck) alive on the off-chance they're the cobbler. So yeeess I'm a harmless little seer, what can I do for you to survive another night?

That could make sense. There was a lot of cobbler talk yesterDay.

The other option (and one that feels more plausible the more I think about it) is that we have a cursed/shapeshifter the wolves know about. That's the best explanation I can think for Boro's death - he made one vaguely evil-looking remark and died, even when the wolves could have got me (really I'm a little upset here - who would take someone else when they can have me? ), which makes me think they must have been after something specific. A cursed would also explain the 2-3 wolves.

Are wolves usually told when there's a cursed in play? I've only been cursed once before (one of Sally's games), and I'm pretty sure the wolves didn't know before they turned me that that was a possibility.

I'm just pointing out that I wouldn't need an excuse not to be right. The odds of randomly picking an ordo for a "dream" are high, and I wouldn't have to worry about fooling the wolves. I'll be happy to give you Nimrodel's name if I see her suggest (as discreetly as she wants) she'd prefer I did that, but I will not do it without her consent because I don't know the specifics of her role and don't want to put her at a disadvantage just to prove myself.

The odds of accidentally picking an ordo are high. The odds of being right when it comes to Nimrodel when you'll only reveal the name after you've picked up on a hint from Nimrodel that it's okay to do so are even higher.

I have one request. Don't spend all your day talking about me (tempting as I know it must be). That will only serve the wolves who'll get to swim through the day with little to no scrutiny.

I agree. Even if you are a wolf, I don't think we should lynch you toDay. I think we should leave you alone for at least another Night, just in case you are Galadriel after all. However, given that I suspect you of wolvery, I'll be going back through yesterDay's voting, particularly surrounding you, to see if it leads to the rest of your pack.

[Loslote]

Kitanna -> Tar (1)
Lottie -> Boro (1)
McCaber -> Agan (1)
Shasta -> Sally (1)
Cop -> Agan (2)
Tar -> Agan (3)
Agan -> Tar (2)
Sally -> Tar (3)

Did not vote:
Rikae
Boro
Farael

From this, it seems unlikely that Cop or McCabbie would be Agan's packmate.

It's possible that Shasta could be, and was trying to add another candidate without jumping on the other two options (both, as we know now, innocent) and potentially looking like a bandwagoner, but that is in no way conclusive. Similarly, Sally could have voted to save her packmate, or she could have just voted to save the newly revealed Seer, which is a completely understandable thing for an innocent to do.

I don't think we can say anything about Kit or my vote - we both voted before Agan's name came up, and both pretty randomly, and
Rikae and Farael are not particularly analyzable based on voting records.

However, Rikae has expressed distrust towards Agan's reveal toDay, and Agan hasn't really responded directly to her, though she did respond directly to me with regards to my distrust about her reveal. If Rikae and Agan were packmates, I would have expected them to play that up a bit more - have Rikae lead the charge, stage a loud battle between Agan and Rikae, and let Rikae take the glory for finding a wolf, thus making her seem much more innocent. If Agan is a wolf, I would probably say that Rikae is probably not her packmate.

Similarly, though, if Agan is actually the Seer, I'm not sure Rikae, as a wolf, would have left her alive and then expressed doubt about the reveal. Either way, I'm feeling pretty good about Rikae.

Overall, I'm feeling worst about Shasta and Kit - Sally's vote was pretty natural for either an innocent or a wolf, but her posts generally felt like normal, innocent Sally to me. We haven't heard from Farael yet, and I guess he could be a wolf, but there's not much to be done on that front.

[Aganzir]

Originally Posted by Loslote

However, Rikae has expressed distrust towards Agan's reveal toDay, and Agan hasn't really responded directly to her, though she did respond directly to me with regards to my distrust about her reveal.

I think you'll find the answer for that in my previous post, Lottie.

Okay now tea and bed.

[Aganzir]

Originally Posted by Loslote

Are wolves usually told when there's a cursed in play? I've only been cursed once before (one of Sally's games), and I'm pretty sure the wolves didn't know before they turned me that that was a possibility.

Sometimes yes, sometimes not. I was the cursed in Kitanna's game some years back and both the wolves and me knew about my role - but then, it was publically listed among the other roles. The seer revealed two wolves the day after I was turned but Nerwen and I proceeded to win an epic victory, aided by our "known innocent" cobbler Mac whom we left alive night after night because we were sure it was him.

The odds of accidentally picking an ordo are high. The odds of being right when it comes to Nimrodel when you'll only reveal the name after you've picked up on a hint from Nimrodel that it's okay to do so are even higher.

Fair enough, I see your point.

What do you think you're trying to achieve looking at the voting with the premise that I'm a wolf, though? Analyse all you want, but you're wasting your time, which should be clear by tomorrow - I'll leave it up to the village to reach their conclusions. I can't really be even bothered to defend myself because the truth of my words will be obvious soon enough.

My brain isn't working properly anymore (I slept badly last night, haunted by dreams of Cop writing reeeeally long posts - I don't think there's a time I've played WW when it hasn't got into my dreams) and I have to get up early-ish so I'm heading to sleep.

I thought about keeping this information until morning but that will be late at night for most of you others so might as well reveal it now - my night 1 dream was Rikae who's (obviously) innocent. I had major plans for trying to communicate my dreams to her without revealing but, well, didn't happen.

edit: xed with Lottie

[Loslote]

Originally Posted by Aganzir

What do you think you're trying to achieve looking at the voting with the premise that I'm a wolf, though? Analyse all you want, but you're wasting your time, which should be clear by tomorrow - I'll leave it up to the village to reach their conclusions. I can't really be even bothered to defend myself because the truth of my words will be obvious soon enough.

Maybe. But this is the best lead I have so far, so I'm going to follow it. Whether or not you turn out to be a wolf after all, it's still a place to start, so I'll be taking closer looks at Kit and Shasta, to begin with.

[Rikae]

When I was reading through the posts I made a mental note that something seemed off in Kit's random vote. Yes, innocents can make random votes, but this particular random vote - well, for one thing, why not vote for Sally, if the whole idea is that her vote means nothing? An innocent wouldn't want to risk her random vote being the basis of a bandwagon, and someone who didn't speak is less likely to be lynched.

So anyway, toDay, Kitanna's post just after I showed up looks quite bad if Agan is indeed a wolf.

And if Agan is not a wolf, I'm a known innocent with no ranger and therefore dead. Bummer.

[Rikae]

Hm... what if Nimrodel actually became an illogical hunter? That would make sense, and wouldn't 100% help the village, either.

[Farael]

*Sigh*

I'm really sorry folks. I foolishly assumed there'd be some comment on the Admin thread about the game starting. Since I am subscribed to the thread, I patiently waited for the e-mail to let me know... and missed Day1.

My bad. And I love Day1 silliness, so that double-sucks.

I have a few thoughts working their way through my brain, after a very confusing first day. Those who have played with me will remember I'm not a huge fan of exceedingly long posts with multiple quotations and person-by-person analysis. However, here are a few thoughts for now. I'll post again once I've had time to re-read Day 1 and what we have so far of Day 2.

Topic 1: I don't trust Agan

• Agan was about to get lynched when she (you are a she, right?) revealed she was Galadriel. I think it was reasonable to do. She then said she wouldn't give us the one known Ordo as that would only help the wolves... again, reasonable
• Agan then survived the night. There was a kill, however, so that leaves us with two possibilities. a) The wolves attacked Agan who was protected by a ranger-like figure (probably the second lover) and then a Hunter-like figure offed Boromir... or, most likely b) The wolves went for Boro for some reason, and left Agan alive
• This then leads me to think that Agan is either lying or the wolves are trying to get us to do their dirty work for them.
• Then Agan goes out and gives us a "known" Ordo (Rikae). Why would she do that? Rikae hasn't said much yet, and she's not under suspicion. Agan didn't save Rikae's life as much as condemn her to a death in Night 3 (as the wolves will likely off Agan and then off our one "known" ordo)
• Furthermore. Agan essentially told Nimrodel to show herself if she wants to be outed by the Seer. In other words, she encouraged our last remaining gifted to drop hints of her identity... why? What does she win by showing herself on Day 2 when (presumably) she isn't under suspicion?
• To conclude, I don't trust Agan at all. Having said that, we shouldn't lynch her today. If she's the seer we'll likely lose her tonight and I'll feel foolish. If not, she'll survive and hopefully the true Seer will eventually come out and help lift us out of this mess

I'll look at other people today... but if I agree with Agan in ONE area is that we shouldn't waste too much of our breath on her. She'll either get mauled and be shown to be the Seer or she won't and dream of a Wolf... or she won't and we'll eventually know she IS a wolf.

Edit: X-ed with Rikae

[Farael]

My cross-post reminds me that I need to suspect Rikae

So here's my theory: If Agan is a wolf, then she might be trying to bluff by saying that Rikae is a "known" Ordo. When we find out that Agan was a wolf, Rikae will defend herself by saying it was too obvious a move.

Ok, now that I got some silly out of the way, I can be serious again... I don't suspect Rikae for such a convoluted reason

I suspect Rikae because it's a good idea to do so anyway

[Farael]

Originally Posted by McCaber

I'm in the same boat as Shasta when it comes to sleep schedules, but when there's not much to go on I'd rather vote someone who's talking. In my experience it's the innocents who tend to not show up, but wolves and gifted have that little extra bit of information that usually has them playing with more skin in the game.

So I'm going with

++ Aganzir

Her whole crazy drunkard act seemed artificial and overcalculated to me.

My emphasis -F

At this point the votes were:
Kitanna -> TJ (1)
Lottie -> Boro (1)

People have already remarked on how McCaber's logic seems a little backwards. "Wolves and gifted tend to talk more on Day 1 as they have more invested in the game. So I'll vote for one of the more talkative people". Completely ignoring that he may also be voting for a gifted.

Furthermore, he introduced a third person to the voting list. I think McCaber was in a pretty safe position to try a little Wolf-on-Wolf action, or at least cast a safe vote with iffy reasoning. In my opinion, he cast what seemed like a throw-away vote for someone who was participating and therefore less likely to be lynched (as, in my experience, talkative people often get a pass in Day 1, and it's the quiet but not too quiet people who get the axe).

Finally, by his own logic, he shouldn't be suspected. He was pretty quiet on Day 1 all things considered! So, obviously, he's neither a gifted nor a wolf.

I think McCaber has a lot to answer to, and I would like to see him talk more today. Otherwise, I shall be voting for him before the end of the (North American) night. I feel like, if he was a Wolf and Agan was still alive toMorrow, we'd have an interesting bit of information. I really think that McCaber was not expecting Agan to get in that much trouble.

[satansaloser2005]

Yes yes, hello, I'm here. Ahem. To business.

My sincere apologies to our fair ranger for your premature demise. I didn't have time yesterday to give more thought to what Agan might have been up to and acted in haste.

Agan is lying, end of story. There is no logical reason why the wolves would not kill a revealed seer. There's one wolf down in my head, but as there seem to be enough people in doubt on the subject, I'll save my vote for the moment and focus my efforts elsewhere.

Why Boro is the real question here. It doesn't make any sense to me (at least at the moment). I'll have my own look at my prince's posts and see if I can see anything.

Back in a bit with further thoughts.


EDIT: x'd with a bunch of Farael

[Farael]

Originally Posted by satansaloser2005

Agan is lying, end of story. There is no logical reason why the wolves would not kill a revealed seer. There's one wolf down in my head, but as there seem to be enough people in doubt on the subject, I'll save my vote for the moment and focus my efforts elsewhere.

I agree, but my only other theory is that...

Originally Posted by Sally (it's Sally, right?)

Why Boro is the real question here. It doesn't make any sense to me (at least at the moment). I'll have my own look at my prince's posts and see if I can see anything.

... the remaining Lover can both protect someone and act as a hunter. So they protected Agan and then turned around and killed Boro for some reason.

I think it's a weak theory and I think it's far more likely that Agan is a wolf. My third theory is that the wolves want us to do their dirty work for them... but why would a true Seer out Rikae as an Ordo when she was under no pressure?

Still, I'm willing to give Agan one more night, since we have 2-3 wolves out of 9 villagers. That means we have 6-7 "good" people. We can afford to give a "likely wolf" a chance to prove us wrong, since the Wolves will likely kill her toNight anyway if she's our Seer.

[Rikae]

Well, I can see why the seer who expects to die the next night would reveal an ordo. At the very least, you'll have one less person to analyze toMorrow and better chances of catching a wolf through process of elimination (though those chances are small this early on). And after all, better an ordo gets eaten on Night 3 than the last gifted (if she's good).

I keep wanting to assume Agan is evil and vote based on that assumption (for Kitanna, most likely), but that would be hasty. It could still be a risky wolf trick, although I could only imagine it if the wolves felt very safe from dreams themselves. Who would? Is anyone sleeping under that many reindeer...? It's a small village - I can't imagine any wolf feeling safe from the seer.

Why Boro? The only thing I noticed was how Lottie voted for him yesterDay on the basis of (as far as I can see) banter. Could his first post have looked like anything? If Agan's honest, the wolves aren't looking for the seer anymore anyway - perhaps they thought he was Nimrodel?
If Agan's lying, perhaps they thought Boro was the seer, or that his death would somehow make one of them look less suspicious... honestly, I don't think this is a very fruitful line of thought right now.

The deadline happens to be at the time I'm taking the wereduckling out to catch the school bus (tomorrow's her 6th birthday, actually) so I'll definitely have to vote early, probably in a few hours. I hope more people have spoken by then.

[Farael]

Well, it's bed time for me.

I'll likely be up about half an hour before the deadline, but I can't really guarantee I'll have time to read up on everything that's been going on, so it's time to vote for me.

Based on a really iffy reasoning for his Day 1 vote, and the fact that it appeared to be a safe vote for either a wolf-on-wolf OR just a throwaway vote so that no real suspicion would land on him, I nominate

++McCaber

for the guillotine. Elven guillotine that is.

I wish I had a little more to go on with... so European Ordos, I leave this mess for you to sort out!

[Rikae]

Originally Posted by Aganzir

I had major plans for trying to communicate my dreams to her without revealing but, well, didn't happen.

Aw man, that would have been cool.