WW LXXXIX: The Terror of Tol Fuin

[Galadriel55]

Originally Posted by Nilpaurion Felagund

I thought I was doing a pretty good Ranger impersonation. :-/

Than was the sentence that made my head explode yesterday when I quickly checked the thread to see who was killed.

Originally Posted by Nilpaurion Felagund

So, Sally (Eru give me strength), Bom, Mith, Eomer, and Greenie under the microscope.

So the first and last to vote Kit, and those who didn't vote her?

Originally Posted by Eomer of the Rohirrim

Your interpretation of the Nerwen-Lommy relationship looks like you're trying to shoehorn your 'go after Lommy' agenda where it's not wanted.

Not wanted... by whom?

Originally Posted by Legate of Amon Lanc

The Kitwagon yesterDay - did seriously nobody at least stop to wonder that it is rather weird how huge and matter-of-factly smooth it has become?

And another question: when did it truly become a wagon?

Originally Posted by Legate of Amon Lanc

As for other stuff, I would now still very much like to see Bom and have him recount what he was thinking when voting and if he had read the thread before it. To recapitulate, I find it extremely weird to vote Kitanna and say that it's a throwaway, even if he thought it was DL. It can be totally genuine, but it can also be a Wolf genuinely thinking it is DL and excusing himself for a throwaway vote. Anyway, it's just so random.

Ditto this.

Originally Posted by Nilpaurion Felagund

I came to a logical conclusion that baddies won't do a Fenris fratricide.

Please explain your logic. I came to the conclusion that they may as well have done that, to look innocent - and if they have, they succeeded with you at least.


@ EVERYONE WHO TALKED ABOUT NERWEN: I think that she was just too careful about not giving a definite concusion to her posts (something Seerish?). Or she was just a very good player who did not look like she was going to be protected.

[Nilpaurion Felagund]

Originally Posted by Galadriel55

Please explain your logic. I came to the conclusion that they may as well have done that, to look innocent - and if they have, they succeeded with you at least.

It's DAY 1. Votes are going to be random. I won't do a statistical study, but I'd imagine that less baddies are killed on DAY 1 than in any other DAY.

I think that baddie-fratricide would be more beneficial when a more proper 'case' against a fellow baddie could be made, cos then the baddie-accuser could not be suspected of having hidden knowledge of who's who in the village. Again, this is from the (theoretical) logical standpoint.

But since apparently this Lottie gal attracts lynches that would make me jealous, I'm beginning to suspect if this theoretical logical situation applies at all. The baddies's latest kill drives home the point--why not kill one of the Lottie voters instead (since it gets rid of a trusted villager AND a possible Seer), unless one of them is a baddie?

BUT, argh, that could also be the reason (or one of the reasons) for their kill, to cast reasonable doubt on their presumed innocence--which however, this village has already taken with more than a few grains of salt. So meh.

[Legate of Amon Lanc]

Originally Posted by Nilpaurion Felagund

But since apparently this Lottie gal attracts lynches that would make me jealous, I'm beginning to suspect if this theoretical logical situation applies at all. The baddies's latest kill drives home the point--why not kill one of the Lottie voters instead (since it gets rid of a trusted villager AND a possible Seer), unless one of them is a baddie?

Why not kill one of Lottie-voters? Exactly because that's what is logical - they might be protected. And one can also wonder whether they did not suspect some WWs up to the point that the WWs thought it will be unwise to target them as it might be interpretated as trying to get rid of somebody who suspects them. Or whatever, the options are many.

Right now, a simple list of people:

GREEN ZONE
Nogrod - no change from yesterDay, looks okay.
Lommy - also still looking okay.

YELLOW ZONE
Greenie - not posted since yesterDay, therefore no change
Sally - ditto.

ORANGE ZONE
G55 - still wary, although I am a bit flip-flopping about her right now; some things she said lately sound more innocentish, but then some are sort of so general observations that they sound false (like basically seconding what I said and the stuff she says as conclusion about Nerwen also isn't anything really new and for some reason, it just strikes me as something a lazy Wolf could write without raising too much fuss and buzz)
Eomer - simply still wary of him, see above
Mithalwen - moving her here, with the yesterDay's total slipping under the radar (and previous) and not sure what to think of the overanalysing of Nerwen's kill (as mentioned above)
Nilp - moving him here too. His analyses don't really analyse anything, aside from that, there are some logical holes in his analyses, or he seems to have a tunnel vision - or then he is intentionally just keeping certain point of view. Like when he analysed Nerwen, it is nice to try if the WWs didn't think she was a Seer, but since it very much seems like they didn't, why not drop the assumption in favor of something more logical and try again, instead of wasting the effort on something which really does not seem to work? Anyway, the way he posts is just too chaotic with me - maybe it's not actual suspicion, but somehow disapproval of his style. More clearly phrased thoughts, please. A list from him about what he thinks about various people would be very nice, for example.

RED ZONE
waiting to be filled with people from above...

GREY ZONE
Bom - so, shall there be input? I am not in the true sense of the word suspecting him based on how he voted yesterDay (or rather what he said about the vote), but I would still really want to hear from him.

[Thinlómien]

Originally Posted by Nilp

'Cowardly'? I did it differently, that's how I thought . . .

Yes, differently - in a manner that put you in no danger of getting lynched. Hence I called it "cowardly" although of course it's not any more "cowardly" than voting someone else than yourself.

Currently slightly annoyed with the game and having stuff to do, shall be back way later but before the deadline though. When I'm back, expect more thoughts on Nerwen's death, the Kit-wagon and a list giving each villager their time in the spotlight.


edit: xed with Nilp

[Nogrod]

Way to go Lommy! I suspected Mith already yesterDay mainly because of the way she could be seen trying to help Lottie (while no one else did - and there are still two of her mates around!) and I have also felt a bit uneasy with some of her wolf's POV speculations, not that that couldn't or shouldn't be done, but they have been kind of "detailed" one wouldn't expect from an ordo. Also Nilp's comfortable defense of us three Lottie-lynchers is starting to border on feeling fake.

But you have more or less connected the dots to look like a believavle scenario - even if I think Mith is correct in that one facet of it she criticises you about. But her only pointing out that one thing - where she probably is right and you Lommy are not - looks a bit suspicious. Heh, she's actually not saying no to those other points but just disagrees where she knows she has it right, if you get what I mean (I think I expressed it quite confusedly to be honest).

This heightens my belief that G55 is innocent (nice spot Legate)

Originally Posted by Nerwen

it's most unusual for a wolf to give herself no other option but voting a comrade.

So it's not only that I don't think Lottie as one who'd scheme against a fellow on D1 and that she didn't seem to me to be doing that when suspecting G55, but there's also this. i mean when a wolf decides to add some suspicion to her/his fellow s/he does well to have other (even one) innocent susect as well so that there is a possibility to have a choice with the voting as going blindly only aga9inst your mate would be stupid if fex. you had a possibility of lynching an innocnet instead with no fear for you and your mates or suspicions raised.

If Mith and Nilp are not our wolves, then I would also like to hear a lot more from Bom - and anyway some explanation to his vote yesterDay would be nice. Casting the first vote to someone who is the most suspected of all is no "throwaway" by any standards.

I don't find Eomer or Greenie especially suspicious, but I don't seem to have no reason to trust them either. Actually I'm a bit scared of Greenie (surprise! ) as she plays again that hunker down & lay low -game, but makes posts with enough reasoning to look like a person we should keep around unless something drastic comes her way.


okay, needs to go for now, but I'll be back later in the evening.

[Galadriel55]

Originally Posted by Nogrod

But you have more or less connected the dots to look like a believavle scenario - even if I think Mith is correct in that one facet of it she criticises you about. But her only pointing out that one thing - where she probably is right and you Lommy are not - looks a bit suspicious. Heh, she's actually not saying no to those other points but just disagrees where she knows she has it right, if you get what I mean (I think I expressed it quite confusedly to be honest).

I was lost less than halfway through. It is more than a bit confusing. Can you rephrase it please?

Am I just having a being-thick day?

[satansaloser2005]

See, this is what happens when I can't actually catch up on the Day properly. Yeah, I suspected Kit, but I may have voted differently if I'd been able to read everything. (Okay, probably not, but I still don't like being behind.) Bother.

Anyway, there's no changing what's happened, only getting it right this time. I'm sure if we all do our best toDay to get a wolf, and try not to vote all in like ten minutes, we'll have a much better outcome. (I'm a bit ill this morning, hence the psych trip.)


I need to take a good look at everyone, and it SEEMS like I'll have the time in the next few hours, so hopefully I can work up a good list of suspicions.


Come on, wolves, what did Nerwen ever do to you?


EDIT: I had this post open in my browser for ages, so despite being so short I still cross-posted like mad. :/

[A Little Green]

So who do we have here?

Bom - Uninvolved. I doubt he's evil though, I'd think he would make more of an effort if he was.

Eomer - An enigma for me. His gallantry could go either way - helpful innocent or manipulative baddie - and the same goes for his response to my out-of-the-blue voting for him. (His only reaction to that being that he found me innocent.) I see both a genial innocent and a wolf's attempt to appear unconcerned at the threat and at the same time trying to raise doubts in me by saying I look innocent. Gah. I don't know what to make of his Gal-fixation, either.

Galadriel - More innocent than not at the moment.

Legate - Until he returns to shed some light on his yesterDay's reasoning I will refrain from forming an opinion.

Lommy - Still looks like a solid innocent Lommy to me.

Mith - A tough nut to crack. She has slipped under my radar I'm afraid, and though others have made shrewd points about her I don't want to form an opinion until having a look of my own.

Nilp - I never seem to be able to read him. Might want a closer look.

Nog - His conduct regarding the Kit-wagon was alarming. Otherwise he has seemed fine to me.

Sally - I seem to say "I don't know" about everyone. I still think her "ordo-reveal" seemed more innocent than not, but there is other stuff that counts against her - mainly that she tends to suspect primarily those who question her and seemed really anxious to break any possible ties between herself and Gal.

[A Little Green]

Where is everybody? As a friend of mine just put it, you're obviously all wolves since you only post by night. I think I'll have a look at the Kit-wagon now.

[A Little Green]

My quick look at the Kit-wagon would have proved more fruitful if I'd have had time to read through the entire Day instead of just the voting. Still, a few observations.

BOM began the wagon with the famous "anyway, throwaway vote". I still have little idea of just how little he knew of what was going on.
GAL was the second to vote for Kit, putting her in the lead. She had been pretty consistent in her suspicion all Day if I remember correctly.
(NOG votes Mith after consistently making arguments against Kit. I have already expressed my concern over this.)
LOMMY complains, in length, about how bad her choices are, and ends up with voting Kit because she prefers lynching her to lynching Eomer. Her vote breaks a draw between the two and puts Kit to the lead again.
NILP, in a hurry, explains his vote with "Previous blinkly-light thing still stands." I suppose this refers to earlier suspicion of Kit.
NERWEN is also running out of time, posting her vote at exactly the DL. Since she's a dead Gifted I didn't feel the need to check her previous posts for reasons.
SALLY is likewise in a hurry and votes at the DL, but admittedly she had consistently suspected Kit.

[satansaloser2005]

At a quick glance....

My dark prince is clearly innocent. Applying meta-logic, a wolf Nilp wouldn't drop out of a game. Without the meta-logic, however, I still find him to be an ally rather than a villain. I'll be quite cross with anyone who attempts to lynch him.

Mither-in-law's reactions to suspicion of her are unnecessarily strong, to the point of being a bit rude. Is she trying to hide her guilt? It could be so. Her insistence that not knowing the rules (or pretending not to know them) is such a huge deal, her constant suspicion of myself and Bom, and then her (to me) detached votes? It looks far too planned, too much like she's trying to play the disagreeable little mage who dislikes everyone's styles and causes just enough fuss to look like she cares, when in reality she doesn't care who dies (as long as it's not her packmates, mind you).

If Mith is a wolf, Nog probably isn't (based on his confusing yet logical post #340). However, his hesitation to follow the Kit wagon does look fishy. I'm trying to decide if it was a legitimate fear that the lynch was too easy, or if he had more sinister motives. I'm leaning toward the latter, but as I've said I also don't think he and Mith would be in the same pack, so I can't decide which I suspect more. Lynching one would likely prove the innocence or guilt of the other, if nothing else.

I'm not really that ready to make any sort of case on anyone else, which is why I'm not mentioning them more explicitly. However, I will offer a list to share my blase little hunches on them all (which will of course change once I take a good look at everyone).



Guiltier:
Mith
Nog

Coming to the dark side:
Galadriel (I'm thinking it may be her newness rather than guilt, but I'm still wary)

May have stolen my pudding:
Lommy
Legate
Bom (so little to go on, and what he has written is pretty useless, his weird Kit vote aside)

Likely not lupine:
Eomer (I keep flip flopping on this, but I'm inclined to think him innocent at the moment)
Greenie (looks agreeable as well as not guilty, so I'll definitely not vote her toDay)
Nilp





I have to make some more phone calls, so I'll be out....again....for a bit. Sorry.

[Mithalwen]

Originally Posted by satansaloser2005

At a quick glance....


Mither-in-law's reactions to suspicion of her are unnecessarily strong, to the point of being a bit rude. Is she trying to hide her guilt? It could be so. Her insistence that not knowing the rules (or pretending not to know them) is such a huge deal, her constant suspicion of myself and Bom, .

You know what I find rude? Calling people weird and strange or Ms. or cowards or feeble. I have found you suspicious because you have behaved suspiciously. I find not knowing the rules suspicious and what do you know the person who claimed not to know the rules was a wolf.

Oh and the other thing I find rude is really puerile nicknames so as far as you are concerned I am Mithalwen, I really can't be bothered when the game consists of pointless lists and waiting to the last minute and then jumping on any passing bandwagon. I'd rather listen to yesterday in Parliament or do the washing up. This game is "Huis Clos" and will be unbearable if Nilp is driven off.

Whatever.

[Inziladun]

C'mon now folks. Let's not have the acrimony. You don't want to displease the Master, do you?