WW: LXXXV - The Lost Philosophers of Maiar

[Rikae]

Originally Posted by Pitchwife

The problem with this is, for a Nessa Wolfrunya to think Rikae could be the Seer based on Rikae's remark about me, I'd have to be her packmate, which I'm not (although it would explain why she defended me against it), so this theory collapses in itself.

Assuming you're not.

It's also possible she was a wolf looking for an easy lynch, and thought that I, with my mysterious and creepy ways, would be an easy target.

[Cailín]

Honestly though, why would a wolf be actively looking for an easy lynch? Far more sensible to just go with the flow and come up with a mildly credible explanation afterwards. Or baiting - and then passing it off as the smart ploy of an ordinary villager. Rikae?

I do agree Nessa looks fairly bad after Ozban's untimely end.

[Blind Guardian]

Originally Posted by Cailín

Honestly though, why would a wolf be actively looking for an easy lynch? Far more sensible to just go with the flow and come up with a mildly credible explanation afterwards. Or baiting - and then passing it off as the smart ploy of an ordinary villager. Rikae?

I do agree Nessa looks fairly bad after Ozban's untimely end.

Because last Night it was 20 against 4. 4/20=2/10=1/5 (don't lynch me for doing math!) For them not good odds and on Day 1 they might have thought that they could give a lousy excuse and get away with it. Well, that would be my reasoning.

[Pitchwife]

Originally Posted by Blind Guardian

Because last Night it was 20 against 4. 4/20=2/10=1/5 (don't lynch me for doing math!) For them not good odds and on Day 1 they might have thought that they could give a lousy excuse and get away with it. Well, that would be my reasoning.

No, Cailín has a point. You're right that people can get lynched with lousy excuses on Day One, but most of the times innocents are perfectly capable of doing it themselves so the wolves needn't expose themselves by starting it. (Which is the reason why the person starting a bandwagon tends to be less suspected than the ones who jump on it later, which in turn, being common knowledge, can make it safer for a wolf to cast the first vote for somebody than to latch on to a previous vote, which in turn etc. regressus ad infinitum. Isn't Werewolf fun?)

OK, bedtime again (indeed long past it). See you later!

[Rikae]

Originally Posted by Blind Guardian

Because last Night it was 20 against 4. 4/20=2/10=1/5 (don't lynch me for doing math!) For them not good odds and on Day 1 they might have thought that they could give a lousy excuse and get away with it. Well, that would be my reasoning.

No, it's simpler than that.

Because wolves need to be active, and helpful, and look like they're trying to catch a wolf. Unless it's wolf-on-wolf, it needs to be manufactured suspicion, and odd behavior makes an excellent foundation for that.

[Pitchwife]

Just went through Kath's posts, nothing Seerish there in my eye. Her longest post #130 was basically a lot of summarizing with only the odd bit of comment here and there. Her vote for Zil seems to have been based mostly on

Originally Posted by Kath #133

faintly shoddy reasoning against Pitch compared to everyone else and he came to it late.

which Zil actually addressed himself here:

Originally Posted by Zil #48

I'll probably be accused of latching onto the suspicion on Pitch, but he somewhat bothers me too. This feels a bit forced.

And this feels a bit self-conscious, if you don't mind my saying so. As does your first post toDay. I just don't see what the wolves hoped to gain with these particular two kills if Zil's one of them: cast suspicion on him by killing Kath while at the same time corroborating his suspicion of Nessa by killing Ozzy??? Nah, doesn't make sense as far as I can see. So I'd think Kath was most probably a classic no trace kill.

[Inziladun]

Originally Posted by Eomer of the Rohirrim

Initial thoughts: Ozban is an interesting kill as players tend to leave those who haven't played for a while alive - unless there's a good reason. Definite Seer hint in there, eh? Eh?

I'd read less into Kath's death, because the urge to kill Kath is completely understandable at all times. (I will have a look at Kath, of course)

I'd probably agree. Ozban's death is the more strange of the two, given that this is only his second WW game, and there are still many players who weren't that familiar with him. Could it be as simple as the no-trace? Why didn't they go after one of the "names", who tend to be harder to lynch?

Originally Posted by Eomer of the Rohirrim

Ok, not sure why certain people today find the lynching of Sally an obvious blunder - we had no idea who to string up! I didn't vote for her, but I'm not going to just assume that evil folk were involved in her slaying. Can people explain what was so wrong about choosing Sally (without referring to hindsight, naturally).

Well, I wasn't here for the ending of the Day, but I hadn't thought anything evil of Sally. I am merely curious to know what was in the thoughts of her voters.

Originally Posted by Cailín

Right now, I have a good feeling about Legate, Lommy, Rikae and strangely enough about Inzil, though he seems somewhat paranoid. Reason tells me Boromir88, Eomer and Kitanna are innocent. Pure insanity tells me Aganzir probably is worth keeping alive as well.

The wolves are almost certainly A Little Green, Macalaure, Loslote and Nessa (confidence is key).

Paranoid? I don't think you've got to see me in Paranoia Mode yet.

I'm still not comfortable with Nessa.
Mac worries me because he's been unnaturally passive, for him. Ordinarily, he's already called for my lynch by now.

Originally Posted by Cailín

I hope this information will suffice for those interested in forming an opinion on my part in this plot or building a case against me. I will return later or tomorrow with something more substantial.

That's rather an odd thing to say. Whether it's evil-odd, or just odd, I don't know.

[Rikae]

Originally Posted by Cailín

Honestly though, why would a wolf be actively looking for an easy lynch? Far more sensible to just go with the flow and come up with a mildly credible explanation afterwards. Or baiting - and then passing it off as the smart ploy of an ordinary villager. Rikae?

I do agree Nessa looks fairly bad after Ozban's untimely end.

Baiting? Well, you would know.

Seriously, you don't think a wolf would be actively seeking reason for suspicion, but you do think a wolf would make a completely unfounded accusation that leaves her open to easy attack? Why?

[Loslote]

Originally Posted by Pitchwife

And this feels a bit self-conscious, if you don't mind my saying so. As does your first post toDay.

I can see your point, but self-conscious is not a trait I usually associate with Inzilawolf. Actually, I'm feeling pretty good about Zil.

Now, here's where I'd usually make a list, and I started to, before I realized it went like this:

I trust me

I sorta trust Zil

Maybe I could see Nessa as a wolf and if I squint really hard, Valier a little bit?

Everone else is hopeless.

So, I figured it wasn't really work the space necessary to write out all the names.

[Inziladun]

Originally Posted by Loslote

Maybe I could see Nessa as a wolf and if I squint really hard, Valier a little bit?

Trouble is, I'm not that familiar with Val. I think I've only been in one game with her. I wasn't all that impressed with her vote for me, but obviously all those who joined her weren't evil.
There was this, in which she promised to "help this village rid itself of these baddies", which could have been one of those lupine assertions of innocence.

She started suspecting me here, before anyone had voted for me, but waited over an hour, until both Boro and Kath voted me before she followed suit. A wolf wanting an innocent to go along before committing?

[Kitanna]

Ahem. I don't have the time I thought I would have. I misjudged the DL times with my schedule and I now know this isn't going to work. I just don't have the time to dedicate. That said...

I'm the village hunter. I figure I should give you the choice to lynch me and suggest someone for me to kill with me. I realize this could mean two innocents die if no one agrees and I get lynched and take down an innocent. This plan has problems, but one way or another I won't be alive that much longer, so I thought it'd be worth a shot to try to get a wolf too.

I'm super sorry about this.

EDIT: I only have about nine hours to send the mod god my choice, so if I don't see a consensus I'll just pick who I think is guilty.

[Inziladun]

Hmm. Well, Kit, I hate to hear that. I don't see what you as a baddie would gain by false-revealing as the Hunter, so I'm inclined to believe you. I might say Nessa, just now. Or Val? Hearing people's suggestions could be informative in itself.

[Macalaure]

I'd like to apologise in advance. This post is bigger than I wanted it to be...


The lynch

Lottie is the first to suspect Sally a little. Jokes that she's not responsible if it turns into a bandwaggon. (Inzil criticises this later)
Pitch is annoyed that Sally suspects him for no apparent reason.
Kitanna gives some points against her.
Shasta is bothered that he can't read her.
Agan is the first to suspect her because she's too quiet. She repeats it in another post.

In her big post, Sally goes after Lommy (mildly), Skip, and Pitch.

Pitch defended Sally's quietness before, but then attacks her after her big post. What I don't like is that he continues saying that he doesn't know what to think of her. It's fishy.

Skip accuses her of twisting his words, which will later also be the reason he votes for her (he's second, Nessa leads by 4 at the time). Not a good reason, though.

Wilwa joins later with two posts. She's the first to vote for her, at a time when the vote is already plenty spread out.

Lottie just says Sally still worries her. She will give Sally a crucial third vote (though she said she crossed with Skip).

Lommy could vote for Sally, but doesn't say why. After her vote (4, putting her in the lead) she pulls a Lommy and feels like Sally is probably innocent.

Agan says she will probably vote for Sally for her cobbler comment. She will vote for her later (crossing with Lommy's)

Out of the voters, Wilwa doesn't looks that suspicious and more genuine. Skip doesn't look very bad. Lottie looks fishy. Lommy and Aganzir look bad because they put her in the lead and use bad or little reasons. In any case, though, Sally was not a very likely lynch until very late, so if a wolf was on the line, I'm sure a better person to vote for could have been found. Pitch's behaviour is a bit fishy, as I said.


The dead

Neither Ozban nor Kath were talked about much, so it's most likely they were killed to leave us no trail.

BG looks better (she suspected Ozban, and usually (though not always) you don't kill the people you suspect during the day)
Aganzir looks better (for noting that she never played with him - you don't usually kill those on Day1) (I think Lommy and somebody else also said something like this, but I can't find it anymore)

Ozban is very slightly suspicious of Inzil, Nessa, and Agan. A bit more of Sally. He votes Nessa while rhyming, not giving any more reasons. I suppose it's possible a wolf-Nessa could have thought he was the seer, but I somehow don't believe it.
Kath suspects Inzil, Legate, Wilwa.
This makes Inzil look better. There was no need for him to kill two who slightly suspected him.

Wilwa is the only one who actually goes after Kath a little. This makes her look better (see BG above).

Lommy states she never played with Ozban and is happy to play with Kath again - very unlikely she would sanction killing both of them.


The general voting and how it makes me feel

Cailín -> Aganzir (neutral)
Kitanna -> Pitch (very good, because I agree with her)
Legate -> Lottie (neutral)
Rikae -> Wilwa (neutral)
Inzil -> Nessa (not so happy)
Shasta -> Lottie (not so good)
Boro -> Inzil (bad, because I don't understand why)
Sally -> Pitch(2)
Ozban -> Nessa(2)
Wilwa -> Sally (neutral)
Pitch -> Nessa(3) (baddie-baddie-bad-bad)
Kath -> Inzil(2)
Valier -> Inzil(3) (major eyebrow-raiser)
Nessa -> Rikae (neutral)
Eomer -> Nessa(4) (not good at all - this Nessa-waggon, I don't like it)
Skip -> Sally(2) (not so good)
e-d -> Pitch (neutral)
Lottie -> Sally(3) (not good)
Lommy -> Sally(4) (not good)
Aganzir -> Sally(5) (not good)


General comments

Originally Posted by Pitchwife

Greenie has posted a little more at least - mostly joining Mac in seeing cobbler hints in Agan's each and every post; which is entirely possible. I mean, Agan is daring enough to sort of hide in the open, and I remember an Agan-cobbler who talked about the cobbler all the time; but since our primary aim is not to lynch the cobbler but the wolves, I'm disinclined to vote her for the time being.

Greenie is safely under my radar at the moment, so I don't know about her, but you are definitely misinterpreting/misrepresenting what I said. I didn't see Aganzir hinting everywhere, just exactly once, and definitely not in the open, but as concealed as possible. Also, I never intended to vote Aganzir, for exactly the reason you state.

Originally Posted by Pee-Wee

now some people have nothing better to do than looking for the cobbler? I'm looking at you, Mac.

It was by no means the only thing I talked about. I'd also say it's better than the bantering or endless role/rule discussion we see so much on Day1, so come on.

I don't like it how you keep on saying I only talk about Aganzir and cobblers and that that makes you suspicious of me. The fact I suspected you is not the real reason, by any chance?

Originally Posted by Aganzir

No. It won't work - unless the Cobbler says it in the thread. So if the wolves get sally's name tonight, they can go back and realise "Hey, she said this!" I really really really don't like this point.

Interesting. When I accused you of doing exactly this, you didn't understand what I was talking about. Then you say this to Sally. I think if I had actually caught you doing this, you would not direct people's attention to somebody else doing it after "playing dumb" first. You're off the cobbler-hook for now.

Originally Posted by wilwa

It was not in the village's best interest to draw attention to this idea.

Actually it was. As Agan and I said, the cobbler needs to give a hint on the thread. Unless the cobbler already did so and got away with it, it will be pretty hard now.

Originally Posted by Legate

Someone who starts the Day with first post saying "both the kills have something to do with me" is either insane or weird.

Weird, I'd say. Why would you want to put yourself into such a situation on Day2? Inzil got some votes yesterDay, but no major cases brought forward - he was not under immediate pressure to get lynched toDay.

Originally Posted by Eomer

Ok, not sure why certain people today find the lynching of Sally an obvious blunder - we had no idea who to string up!

Maybe I'm paranoid, but this sounds like an attempt to cover up the fact that a fellow wolf was in the running yesterDay, too.

Originally Posted by Inzil

Mac worries me because he's been unnaturally passive, for him. Ordinarily, he's already called for my lynch by now.

I think the former I dealt with now. The latter will have to wait, since I don't suspect you yet.

Seeing all the Ozban-was-the-seer-and-dreamt-of-Nessa talk gives me the idea the wolves might have killed Ozban to frame Nessa and orchestrate an easy lynch for toDay.


Reading over everything, I found myself getting worried about Boro. I will have to reread his posts before I can make my mind up and give reasons.


These are all just thoughts, and some of the stated suspicions contradict. I'll sum this all up later.

-crossed since Kitanna. Oh, man...

[Inziladun]

Wow, Mac. That looks.....pretty darned logical, and well reasoned.

[Valier]

Akk the day has gotten away from me...I'm trying to find time to read everything, but thought I'd better get a few of my thoughts down.
So after forcing myself to read Mac's longggg post (sorry) I actually agree with him on Kath and Ozzy's deaths. I think they would have been easy D1 kills, not overly traceable to anyone in particular. The wolves would have to be seasoned or gungho players to start with a strategic kill on the first night. or they are just going with the flow and killing two "easier" kills. What I don't quite get is why they weren't trying harder to nab the seer? I didn't think either of them was the seer.
On the Kitanna 'sitiation, that sucks that you don't have the time to play Kit, it was nice playing in a game with you again no matter how short. I do think we should come up with a plan to use your going to the villages advantage. Hmmm I'm going to give this some thought.
As to Inzil's suggestion as to you taking me down with Kit, I would want some more evidence as to my guilt. There is no way that I think I should be the one to die. That would be a waste of this chance oportunity. I know it never helps to out and out say your Innocent, that only makes everyone suspect you more....but hey I am and I just wanna stick around and help catch some wolves

[Cailín]

Originally Posted by Rikae

Seriously, you don't think a wolf would be actively seeking reason for suspicion, but you do think a wolf would make a completely unfounded accusation that leaves her open to easy attack? Why?

Honestly, after so many werewolf games I do not believe wolves conform to a certain behavioural pattern at all. If I had been a wolf, I would probably have tried the fly under the radar approach yesterDay. After all, this village is huge. I have no idea who is in it. I just think that completely unfounded accusations on Day 1 are actually easier and more convincingly defended.

I feel better about Mac after his long analysis, because we have clearly been thinking along the same lines.

Not sure what to do about your situation, Kitanna. I'd honestly rather not put you up for lynching because well, you are innocent. Just target whoever you think is guilty and we will have two shots at finding a wolf instead of one. We can definitely use those odds anyway.

[Legate of Amon Lanc]

Okay, back... commenting on a bit of stuff, some thoughts about people, then on the Kit issue in the end...

Originally Posted by Mac

BG looks better (she suspected Ozban, and usually (though not always) you don't kill the people you suspect during the day)

This is a good point.

As for what Mac also said, there is the thing that I can imagine some people (Agan, Lommy...) not wanting to kill e.g. Ozban because they didn't get much chance to play with him before, however, one has to consider that they might be just one Wolf in the big pack and perhaps their votes would be overriden. The question is though, overriden by WHAT - since it really seems now that the only reason was no-trace kill, or possibly framing someone (or possibly killing our day by letting us wonder what the heck is this all about).

And, there is one thing I really don't like: I am starting to suspect Inzil. A bit, but anyway. Which is horrible, thinking that in such a case it would be, what, the fifth time in a row he was a Wolf? But maybe I haven't seen him "normal" for such a long time that... well, never mind. I am not going to continue on that just now, I am merely wary about him.

Mac's posting looks reasonable, unless it is a part of some huge conspiracy of intertwined posts which are supposed to make certain people look good (Agan? Zil? Nessa?) and make others suspected.

On the superficial level, I have started to be somewhat wary also of Elronhubbard, but from the general tone of her posting it makes me think she is actually innocent. More like gut-feeling from the way she presents herself.

Now there is the time to remark that actually Mac has a point in how Boro did indeed not say much, and in fact, neither he did toDay. Maybe he wished to post something after being "rebuked", but in fact he just very shortly repeated a few things which are really of not so much consequence. Most curious.

And like I said, I don't suspect Lottie that much anymore, and her latter posting confirms this even more.

Originally Posted by Boro

I'm not sure why everyone gets surprised when Kath winds up killed. She's a smart and astute player. Always gives a thorough read through of the posts and then gives her opinions.

"And others tried to figure out whether it was a compliment." Or, I mean, and other players don't? Kath is a smart player, sure, but one of many. Or are all the other smart players Wolves? And who are they in your opinion, anyway?

And now as for Kitanna - well, happens; and I have no reason to distrust her claim. But if it is so, we have to figure out what to do with it.

Originally Posted by Kitanna

Ahem. I don't have the time I thought I would have. I misjudged the DL times with my schedule and I now know this isn't going to work. I just don't have the time to dedicate. That said...

I'm the village hunter. I figure I should give you the choice to lynch me and suggest someone for me to kill with me. I realize this could mean two innocents die if no one agrees and I get lynched and take down an innocent. This plan has problems, but one way or another I won't be alive that much longer, so I thought it'd be worth a shot to try to get a wolf too.

I'm super sorry about this.

EDIT: I only have about nine hours to send the mod god my choice, so if I don't see a consensus I'll just pick who I think is guilty.

Now here goes one important thing. So okay, basically the suggestion is that we "vote" - we give you a suggestion whom to kill, and then vote for you, you get lynched, and take somebody with you.

I have a few things to that - I would prefer, if it is possible (or I don't know what people think), to keep you alive and around at least for a while yet. Depends how much you can, resp. how much you cannot play, Kit. It is somehow dumb, but if it's possible, I would most prefer the idea of keeping you around as a "known innocent", and kill you only at some point when you really cannot go on. That is, if you can pop in at least once in two Days and vote or something in order not to be modfired, I would like to have you here, and perhaps at least chime in with an idea once in a while. You see, the thing is, there are already two kills by Night, I don't really fancy two deaths by Day also. Of course, if we get a Wolf, no problem, but this method of lynching you is no better than a normal lynch, in fact, it's worse (in relation to the amount of people who die, even if one of them is a Wolf).

And that said, if I were to suggest somebody to you, I also don't have much of a clear idea - as more of us don't, I believe - whatever was suggested before is possible, Valier seems a bit creepy, but otherwise I would have to have the time to go through things properly to say anything specific, there are people I am wary of otherwise, like Boro, Rikae, somewhat Zil... but I have not yet made it my focus to go through all their posts.

[Macalaure]

Boro doesn't convince me yet.

Originally Posted by Loslote

I'm sure you're not insinuating that I lied about that

I definitely wasn't. I guess I just worded it badly.


I need a list to get a proper grip on my thoughts.

Feel more or less good about.
Shasta
Kitanna (of course)
Wilwa
Inzil
Rikae
BG
Legate
Lommy
These fellows are off the hook for now and will be until something happens that makes me change my mind.

No idea at all.
elronds_daughter
Greenie
Mänwe
ed and Mänwe didn't say much, and Greenie really has been so far under my radar that I don't know what to think. Not good.

Not really suspicious, but not really innocent either.
Loslote
Nessa
Skip
Aganzir
Cailín
Wary of these.

A bit suspicious.
Eomer
Valier
Very wary.

Good deal of suspicion.
Pitch
Boro
Are most likely to receive my vote toDay, unless something changes my mind (which is still very possible, of course).

[Kitanna]

This is the last post I can make. I'm going to stick with who I've already chosen. If enough of you lynch me and hope I'm right, well I hope I'm right too. Or maybe you'll let me stay to keep one more innocent body around until Nog arranges my suicide because of inactivity. Either way best of luck.

[Nessa Telrunya]

I'm not so sure about the cobbler-wolf hinting theory. It was way to conspicuous to be something planned, not to mention the idea had already been brought up.

[skip spence]

Originally Posted by Kitanna

This is the last post I can make. I'm going to stick with who I've already chosen. If enough of you lynch me and hope I'm right, well I hope I'm right too. Or maybe you'll let me stay to keep one more innocent body around until Nog arranges my suicide because of inactivity. Either way best of luck.

I'm sorry you have to leave as I enjoyed your contribution. I find no reason to not believe you and hope you can leave with a bang and a dead wolf.

However, I don't like the idea of just lynching Kit and let her do her thing. Even though I think this statistically favours the village over the wolves (the latter lose their influence over the voting) it seems like a Day wasted and today's game ruined.

This is a question to Nogrod. If Kit is "modfired" will she simply disappear from the game of can she still perform her function as a hunter? Maybe just removing her is the best solution in either case?

[Mänwe]

This was always going to be the outcome; our numbers large enough for the evil amongst us to strike with impunity- such is the wickedness of Melkor- during these early days of torment. For this is the torment he seeks in his discord, to have in His creation, creation marred with self preservation.

And so two unspoken spirits are extinguished and one of ours who was among the most talkative is lynched. Posts of no substance and posts of substance are marked as being both innocent and evil; the same can be said of those who speak profusely and those who do not, heh none of us can win. Shall we now see two well spoken spirits killed during Melkor’s forced sleep and one unspoken spirit lynched?

Much is said of ones innocence that lies low, so I would have those who have spoken little (and who had offered no reason for their absence) step forward in this darkness, identify themselves because I can barely see and explain themselves. Those who have appeared to me as quite quiet and who have three or less posts in our first day of incarceration (and who survived the night’s carnage) are as I see it, the following.

[accountable, just]Cailín; #10(1i) – informs us of a flight, will be interesting to see how vocal she is today after posts #186(2i) and #205(2ii) appear to be reactionary to the nights events.

[unaccountable!]Blind Guardian; #47(1i) offers no reason for his absence and says due to this absence he will not vote. While Day 2, #181(2i) #187(2ii) expresses delight at survival and math reasoning for the ‘easy lynch’.

[unaccountable]A Little Green; #73(1i) a late Day 1 post (and nothing since) and casts a few nonchalant suspicions on Agan and Rikae.

[unaccountable]elronds_daughter; #71(1i) a late post to say driving a result of inactivity and appears content to just follow the flow of previous chatter. #152(1ii) jumps in with a blind (bandwagon) vote seemingly just conforming. #200(2i), ah back again to say a few odd bits that again to me appear to conform. Will look out for the more substantial post. Perhaps all a little too obvious.

I’ll hold back comments on other players for the time being.

[Blind Guardian]

Originally Posted by Mänwe

[unaccountable!]Blind Guardian; #47(1i) offers no reason for his absence and says due to this absence he will not vote. While Day 2, #181(2i) #187(2ii) expresses delight at survival and math reasoning for the ‘easy lynch’.

Sorry, I didn't realize I didn't explain myself. It was a very busy day here. I had a lot of scrubbing to do and still have more to do. Had to take the dog for a walk, went shopping waaayyyy in Phoenix. Later today I have to paint a ceiling and finish some walls and finish cleaning those shelves.

I was just putting in my point of view, which if you have played with me before, gets me lynched, 'cause everything I say sounds insane. Maybe I am crazy a little. And yes it is a miracle at surviving day 1, for me.

[Thinlómien]

Okay, I've been sick and sharing computer with the totally not caught up with stuff Greenie, so my participation has been and will be quite diminished toDay... my apologies. Trying to do my best with the amount of concentration and time I have right now.

Originally Posted by Mac

Excellent memory and quick brains? No offense to Inzil, but remembering who you were after and who was after you one Day ago is really not that much of a feat.

I believe he remembered who agreed with him and who he voted. Not that it's such a big thing to remember, but honestly, I necessarily wouldn't and it takes some quick thinking to connect the facts together and to the dead people in three minutes (including typing).

Agan is annoying me slightly, so I'm starting to trust her. She tends to take that nitpicky Lobelia tone when she's innocent. This, however, doesn't make me agree with her. I don't really know what she achieved by analysing everybody's actions towards herself. (But I guess analysing that is better than analysing nothing. )

[Rikae]

Originally Posted by Cailín

Honestly, after so many werewolf games I do not believe wolves conform to a certain behavioural pattern at all. If I had been a wolf, I would probably have tried the fly under the radar approach yesterDay. After all, this village is huge. I have no idea who is in it. I just think that completely unfounded accusations on Day 1 are actually easier and more convincingly defended.

Be that as it may (and you're right on on count: as a wolf I would be bold enough to make unfounded accusations and "stir the pot" if I felt so inclined), you began all this by implying that a Nessa-wolf would certainly not have dared to say "she knows something we don't", this sort of comment being somehow so risky, so assertive that no wolf would dare try to get suspicion going in such a bold way. Balderdash.

[Rikae]

Regarding Kit, I'd prefer it if we had more time to choose her kill, if we have to do so. Even after two days, when she is scheduled to be modfired, we'll have more information to go on. Trouble is, it would require her to be around to change her kill at that time according to the village, unless she and Nog are willing to have her kill determined by a vote of the village in two days. It would also require Kit to vote toDay to buy time.

[Cailín]

Originally Posted by Rikae

Be that as it may (and you're right on on count: as a wolf I would be bold enough to make unfounded accusations and "stir the pot" if I felt so inclined), you began all this by implying that a Nessa-wolf would certainly not have dared to say "she knows something we don't", this sort of comment being somehow so risky, so assertive that no wolf would dare try to get suspicion going in such a bold way. Balderdash.

Aye, well, I meant to imply no such thing - I just wanted to say that on Day 1 there is no sense to go looking for an easy lynch, because they usually tend to present themselves - but we all know one needs to be fairly bold to go against you.

[Cailín]

I wanted to look into Loslote and Nessa, because I seem to be swayed by the suspicion against them. I also decided - based on a gut feeling - to analyse Wilwarin and elronds_daughter even though I had taken little note of them before.

So far I only had time for Wilwarin and Nessa. Don't expect these analyses to be like a glass of clear, cool water, though, because my thoughts are seldom quite as organised as some of the die-hards here.

Wilwarin

#77 seems offended by the discussion about roles and behaviour. Tone is somewhat patronizing, which I have rarely seen from Wilwa before. Antagonises more people by “refusing to jump on the Pitch wagon”.
She lists some initial thoughts on people, mostly based on past performance and behavior. Who are Cupcake and Pop?

#83 argues with Rikae, which prompts a vote from Rikae’s end.

#88 agrees with Legate that Loslote’s post looks somewhat suspicious. Confusion about a possible Cobbler hint from Aganzir detected by Legate.

#89 Clarifies her fear of a Pitch wagon

#93 Defends herself against Pitch’s accusations. Says she does not suspect Legate or Loslote yet, though concedes there are some legitimate reasons to suspect Lottie.

#106 Defends herself again, this time against Boro, who was a staunch defender of the roles and rules discussion. Her tone is milder now.

#116 Ah, Cupcake refers to Sally. Wilwarin does not like her post, mainly because of the whole Cobbler thing (she does not mention this explicitly in an attempt to conceal from the Cobbler / Wolves what she obviously thinks is a good idea). She defends Skip and questions Sally’s assessment of Kitanna.

#123 suspects Sally (and has various reasonable arguments for Day 1) and thinks she will vote for her today.

#129 votes for Sally.

#134 again defends herself against Kath, who misrepresented Wilwa’s initial post in her analysis. Defends herself against accusations of defensiveness (always counterproductive)

#160 does not like Aganzir drawing attention to Sally’s point about the Cobbler (which was also Wilwa’s main reason for voting Sally) and suspects Aganzir might not have the village’s best interest at heart.

Today

#171 defends her decision to vote for Sally again referring to the Cobbler incident.

Wilwarin has been quite consistent so far. She does seem fairly defensive – not just of herself but of other people as well – and such behavior always leads to discomfort. However, she was one of the few people yesterday who bothered to build a case – however wrong it may have been – against someone and stated her reasons for her vote as clearly and lucidly as she thought advisable. At the moment I doubt she is evil.

Nessa

#28 starts with some maths. I won’t argue with that.

#55 Confused about Rikae’s suspicion of Pitchwife. Suggests Rikae “seems to know something we don’t”

#64 explains her lack of participation

#147 votes Rikae. Claims her post was misinterpreted and she had meant to accuse Rikae, not out her as a possible Seer. Says Rikae has been jumpy. Unsure about the Legate-is-the-Cobbler debate and the suspicion against Sally.

Today

#211 votes Rikae again and does not think she will be back.

There is really so very little to go on here. Post #55 looks weird, but could just be carelessly phrased. She hardly comments on any of the other players. I have never played with Nessa before, so I cannot comment on her style (to me it looks like she may be relatively new to the game). She has definitely done little to make her look innocent.