Werewolf LXXXIII: The Nightmare on the East Road

[wilwarin538]

So the wolvies went for the Barrow Wight. That's extremely lucky for us.

Now we just need to try and figure out who would have been a likely target last Night and we'll be able to narrow down our BW suspects.

I would guess it was maybe someone more quiet, a trailess kill, the first Night is really the only time to be able to do that since many people haven't posted much. But they may have spotted what they thought was a Seer hint, but that is way harder for us to figure out.

But first I need to catch up on what happened after I left yesterDay, and get some food and I should be on in the next couple of hours.

edit: x'ed with Shasta, haha, actually that's not a completely awful idea. If one of the wolves is in great danger of being lynched, like where it's obvious they will definitely be the one to go, they may as well say who the BW is, that way they can help us kill him (which would also help their surviving mates since the BW is a threat to them too). They will have nothing to lose at that point, and they'll be able to still help their team even though they're dead (since the wolves can't kill the BW on their own, they need our help to do that).

[Shastanis Althreduin]

Originally Posted by Wilwa

actually that's not a completely awful idea.

I am shocked, appalled, and hurt at the attitude towards my ideas that this comment implies. But in any case, moving on, starting with Assumption #1 - the wolves went after someone they thought was the Seer. Honestly, the first person to jump out at me in this manner is Nog, who was quite explicit in this post right at DL -

Originally Posted by Nog

Greenie is over-rationalising her vote. She looks suspicious.

I'm also worried about wilwa. She voted for Glirdy too easily.

Pitch is nicely saving wilwa (I've had a bad feeling about him all the Day - he's reasonable, but then again like a cheetah looking for a victim to jump upon).

Those two being wolves and not knowing of the cobbler would just make sense.

Aganzir is a baddie. Which type? A cobbler, of course.

As an interesting aside, this would also point at one or more of Greenie, Pitch, Wilwa, and Agan as wolves. Agan is probably the most likely of this bunch, considering that Nog was most specific about her. How likely it is that an Aganwolf would have gone after Nog (expecting that Nog-Seer would die, of course) knowing that his death would point to her is debatable, however.

More thoughts on Assumption 1 as I think of them. I should be back in a few hours.

[Inziladun]

Well, not a bad start at all. No wolf or Wight with YesterDay's lynch, but a Cobbler is the next best thing. And no kill last Night, marking two setbacks for the pack right out of the gate.

Originally Posted by Shastanis Althreduin

But in any case, moving on, starting with Assumption #1 - the wolves went after someone they thought was the Seer. Honestly, the first person to jump out at me in this manner is Nog, who was quite explicit in this post right at DL-

As an interesting aside, this would also point at one or more of Greenie, Pitch, Wilwa, and Agan as wolves. Agan is probably the most likely of this bunch, considering that Nog was most specific about her. How likely it is that an Aganwolf would have gone after Nog (expecting that Nog-Seer would die, of course) knowing that his death would point to her is debatable, however.

Trying to backtrack wolf-targets on Day 1 is tricky, but I guess Nog is a possibility. There was also this from him:

Originally Posted by Nogrod

What I think of Volo? Well, he might be a total nut-head baddie trying to go with the "then going flow" - or then he is an ordo who thought I was the seer.

Hard to say, which one.

Then again, Nog voted for Agan, and it wasn't a situation where Agan was given a pass by everyone except Nog. So I'm not sure why his suspicion and vote for her would necessarily stand out from others.

x/d with Nog

[Shastanis Althreduin]

Originally Posted by Inzil

So I'm not sure why his suspicion and vote for her would necessarily stand out from others.

Simple. Because of how explicit it was, Inzil. I believe I just said that.

And Nog, haven't there been plenty of games where ordos have posed as the Seer in order to take a hit for said Seer? I know I myself have done it at least once (and it worked ), so surely you aren't saying that the only person that would pose as the Seer besides the Seer themselves is the BW, are you?

[Inziladun]

Originally Posted by Shastanis Althreduin

Simple. Because of how explicit it was, Inzil. I believe I just said that.

Well, I'd say this:

Originally Posted by Eomer of the Rohirrim

Oh well, have to leave now. I'll vote Aganzir simply due to the fact that she's posted so much when there's nothing to talk about yet. Trying to muddy the waters, obviously. Guilty as sin.

++ AGANZIR

is pretty explicit as well. Why would they believe Nog over that if Agan was a wolf, especially when Nog also said:

Originally Posted by Nogrod

If Agan is the cobbler - as I think she is - then this will tell us a lot toMorrow.

So wilwa and Pitchie are wolves together?

If Aganwolf sees that, why should she worry about Nog being the Seer?

[Loslote]

I wouldn't think Nog would be the Night-kill (and TBW). My guess would be someone quieter, like Form, Elfie, or Kath, or who voted earlier, like Eomer or Volo. Of those, Eomer makes the most sense to me, with Form and Elfie right behind him.

[Nerwen]

Originally Posted by Shasta

Eomer said nothing of worth all yesterDay and gave no real reasons for his vote - look at the post you quoted yourself. Eomer voted Agan for talking a lot. Nogrod, on the other hand, had reasons that he talked about at length.

My treasure, Nog was very specific about Agan being a cobbler (which, incidentally wouldn't greatly surprise me). So, if anything, this hypothetical attack on a Nogwight would point away from Agan as a wolf, wouldn't it?

Here's a general observation: I said it didn't surprise me that the BW was the hot topic on Day One. However, it's also true that when there's a werebear in the village, the folk most eager to discuss it tend to be the cobbler, the wolves and, oddly enough, quite often the bear as well. I bet Mr Goatleaf wasn't the only baddie in the thik of it yesterDay.

EDIT:X'd since Shasta.

[Shastanis Althreduin]

Originally Posted by Inziladun

Well, I'd say this:



is pretty explicit as well. Why would they believe Nog over that if Agan was a wolf, especially when Nog also said:



If Aganwolf sees that, why should she worry about Nog being the Seer?

Eomer said nothing of worth all yesterDay and gave no real reasons for his vote - look at the post you quoted yourself. Eomer voted Agan for talking a lot. Nogrod, on the other hand, had reasons that he talked about at length. My question to you, Inzil, is why you seem so intent on defending Nogrod? I was only following an assumption, yet you seem to be donning your armor for battle.

[Inziladun]

Originally Posted by Shastanis Althreduin

Eomer said nothing of worth all yesterDay and gave no real reasons for his vote - look at the post you quoted yourself. Eomer voted Agan for talking a lot. Nogrod, on the other hand, had reasons that he talked about at length.

I'd think that to a wolf's eyes someone voting for one of their own with little reason behind it would be a more inviting Seer prospect than one who puts effort into making a case, at least on Day 1.

Originally Posted by Shastanis Althreduin

My question to you, Inzil, is why you seem so intent on defending Nogrod? I was only following an assumption, yet you seem to be donning your armor for battle.

I'm not "defending Nogrod". I'm disagreeing that he was necessarily the likely kill choice. Why are you unwilling to explore other options?

[Inziladun]

Originally Posted by Eomer of the Rohirrim

Oh well, have to leave now. I'll vote Aganzir simply due to the fact that she's posted so much when there's nothing to talk about yet. Trying to muddy the waters, obviously. Guilty as sin.

++ AGANZIR

(1)

Shoddy reasoning. An easy vote for a wolf to have made, but at the same time I'd at least expect a wolf to qualify it with a "gut feeling", or something like it.

Originally Posted by Glirdan

I'm sorry guys, I can't stay up any longer. I'm exhausted and need sleep as I have to work again later tonight. I shouldn't be this bad for Day 2.

As for my vote...

++Wilwa

Because I can. Seriously. Just completely random.

(1)

Cobbler Harry Glirdyleaf votes Wilwa. All that tells us is that he didn't consider her a wolf.

Originally Posted by Volo

I got a nastyish vibe from Pitchwife's first post's beginning, but later he felt Ok, Ok, Ok.



Sorry, darling, I would have liked to hear more of your voice before
++Aganzir

Correction: I did hear your voice, and would have liked to think this over, but can't. Won't. vote. randomly. So. die. please.

I pointed out yesterDay why I didn't like the way Volo latched onto going after Agan. (2)

Originally Posted by satansaloser2005

++Agan

There's a chance her BW plan is actually innocent, but I don't think she would be thinking so far ahead as an ordo, and as a gifted (the seer at least) she would likely rather keep her head down and worry about finding the BW and exposing them herself. Thus, I don't think it's necessarily a completely evil scheme, but I think she wants to get rid of another opponent right off the bat, and since the BW doesn't pose much of a threat to the village right now, that leaves her as evil.

(3)

Hm. Sally was very scarce Day 1, so it's hard to say if her intentions there were opportunistic or not.

Originally Posted by A Little Green

Okay, looks like it's my bed-time. I was debating between Pitch (for a vague feeling from one post) and Glirdan (looking the worse out of the (semi-)random voters). Will vote for

++ Glirdan

Because I feel better voting with a reason than voting with a vague gut-feeling. So just to repeat what I said before: a random vote on Day 1 is not evil-looking because it's annoying (I don't vote for lynch because something is annoying, because annoying doesn't equal evil), but because it is an excellent cover for a wolf. It's an easy way to cover one Day's lynch, and no one can point out any flaws in the logic because there is no logic - and any criticisms can be answered with "It was Day 1, I had nothing better!" But the thing is, anyone has something better than totally random - except for those who know almost everyone's alignment already and don't actually have suspects at all, and have to make everything up (ergo the wolves). So, shortly, Glirdan's vote gave me the impression of a wolf looking for an easy pass through the first Day without getting his hands dirty.

(1)

I voted for Glirdan myself for much the same reason, so this doesn't strike me as evil.

Originally Posted by wilwarin538

It just hit me that there's only an hour left to the Day, how did that happen? It seems to be coming at us way too fast.

So I need to vote, cause my family is about to sit down for a nice supper and then I have to go out. So I'm going to go for:

++ Glirdan

99% of the reason I'm voting him is because he makes no sense to me, he seems more jumpy and nervous than usual, the way he was trying to take Agan's idea and make it into something regarding Cobblers, but never really explaining how the heck that would work, and I just am not getting good vibes from him at all. The other 1% is out of spite for him voting me.

(2)

Again, I pretty much agreed about Glirdan, so I can't find fault here.

Originally Posted by Formendacil

As said before, I don't think Agan should die toDay, so if I'm to cast a useful vote, it needs to be either Glirdan-ward or Wilwa-ward. Of the two, I've found Glirdan more entertaining toDay, and Wilwa slightly more useful...

But it's Day 1, and slightness is slight... so...

++ Wilwarin

(2)

My sole observation is that I'd wonder why "entertaining" trumps "useful" when considering a lynch.

Originally Posted by Kath

Well we apparently know the lynch choices for toDay then! So I'll go look at their posts and then vote.

Agan - suggests the person stunned reveals. Interesting idea, it would narrow down possibilities ... does it end up revealing Gifteds though and thus helping the wolves more? Basically saying just don't forget TBW in case it comes back to bite you later. Takes against Glirdan as well. Her and wilwa as buddies sounds unlikely given that they both suspect him. Suspects Nog for twisting her words or at least continuing to misunderstand them. Says 'trust me' waaaay too much.

Wilwa - saw the downsides of having the stunned person reveal. Says focusing on TBW distracts from the more immediate danger of wolves and cobblers. Seems to have pretty clear and thought through reasons against Agan's revealing plan. I thought she was looking pretty good but then she takes against Glirdan for no reason I can particularly see.

Glirdan - says focus on the wolves and cobblers and let the less obviously dangerous Gifted's sort themselves out. Makes sense to me though in these early Days we're as likely to get one of them as we are anything else! Adapts Agan's TBW outing plan to work for cobblers.

Right, well. To be honest none of them seem desperately suspicious! I'd be more tempted to go for wilwa because to be honest I can't see the reasoning behind Glirdan being suspicious.++WILWA

(3)

I didn't understand how Kath could say Wilwa had no reasoning for suspecting Glirdan. Wilwa's reasoning for her vote looked better than Kath's at any rate.

Originally Posted by Pitchwife

Let me just say Form's vote was crap. Lynch one of the players who've made most sense toDay, really? At best, it was uninFormed.

I see no urgent reason to lynch Nog or Volo yet, I'm torn about Agan but I think I like her response to suspicion and would like to keep her around, and I'm having second thoughts about Lottie thanks to wilwa (plus she's not around to explain herself). So falling back on my second-best option
++Glirdan

(3)

Doesn't look bad to me.

Originally Posted by Inziladun

I also have a tendency to be wary of anyone in this game who says "trust me".



Well, she did somewhat explain it, I think. And he also voted her for what he said was no reason at all.

Ok. Fine.

For lack of other options:

++Glirdan

I can't bring myself to vote Volo toDay, and Glirdan has the random vote for Wilwa and something of a nervy edge to his posts.

(4)

Originally Posted by Aganzir

++Glirdan

I find him suspicious enough, and I'd rather not die myself.

Self-preservation is at least understandable. (5)

Originally Posted by The Elf-warrior

I'm gonna go with
++Volo.
I think Shasta found a freudian slip. I haven't read any farther than Nogrod's post after Shasta.

I can't fault the suspicion on Volo, since I'd already thought him shifty. I'm not sure about the "slip", but it did look strange. (1)

Originally Posted by Loslote

++Agan

As I said, more to try and keep a Glirdy-lynch from happening than trying to lynch Agan herself. Sorry, Agan.

(4)

I don't remember just now why Lottie didn't want Glirdan lynched.

Originally Posted by Nogrod

++ Aganzir

At least Nog's was certainly not a surprise. Consistent. (5)

Originally Posted by Shastanis Althreduin

++Glirdan

More evidence, as opposed to a 'feeling' with Agan.

(6)

Nerwen did not vote.

x/d with Lottie and Shasta