Werewolf LXXXIII: The Nightmare on the East Road

[Aganzir]

The votes:
Eomer - Agan
Glirdan - wilwa
Volo - Agan 2
sally - Agan 3
Greenie - Glirdan

Thanks guys.

As for me, I could vote today for sally, Nogrod, Volo (if one of us has to die, I'd much rather it was him ), maybe Glirdan (if doing that helps me save myself). The people I'm not voting for (unless something very drastic happens) are Greenie, wilwa, EW, Form, Inzil, Pitch.

Now for some tea.

[Formendacil]

Originally Posted by Aganzir

The votes:
Eomer - Agan
Glirdan - wilwa
Volo - Agan 2
sally - Agan 3
Greenie - Glirdan

As said before, I don't think Agan should die toDay, so if I'm to cast a useful vote, it needs to be either Glirdan-ward or Wilwa-ward. Of the two, I've found Glirdan more entertaining toDay, and Wilwa slightly more useful...

But it's Day 1, and slightness is slight... so...

++ Wilwarin

[Shastanis Althreduin]

I'm here and reading, for the end of the day (luckily enough!) I have to read page 2, but will be here soonish.

[Kath]

Well we apparently know the lynch choices for toDay then! So I'll go look at their posts and then vote.

Agan - suggests the person stunned reveals. Interesting idea, it would narrow down possibilities ... does it end up revealing Gifteds though and thus helping the wolves more? Basically saying just don't forget TBW in case it comes back to bite you later. Takes against Glirdan as well. Her and wilwa as buddies sounds unlikely given that they both suspect him. Suspects Nog for twisting her words or at least continuing to misunderstand them. Says 'trust me' waaaay too much.

Wilwa - saw the downsides of having the stunned person reveal. Says focusing on TBW distracts from the more immediate danger of wolves and cobblers. Seems to have pretty clear and thought through reasons against Agan's revealing plan. I thought she was looking pretty good but then she takes against Glirdan for no reason I can particularly see.

Glirdan - says focus on the wolves and cobblers and let the less obviously dangerous Gifted's sort themselves out. Makes sense to me though in these early Days we're as likely to get one of them as we are anything else! Adapts Agan's TBW outing plan to work for cobblers.

Right, well. To be honest none of them seem desperately suspicious! I'd be more tempted to go for wilwa because to be honest I can't see the reasoning behind Glirdan being suspicious. He's doing stream-of-consciousness posting but it doesn't seem particularly guilt-ridden.

So:

++WILWA

Random aside: Ooh Pitch have I? When was that? Was it a reading or something?

[Inziladun]

Originally Posted by Kath

Agan - suggests the person stunned reveals. Interesting idea, it would narrow down possibilities ... does it end up revealing Gifteds though and thus helping the wolves more? Basically saying just don't forget TBW in case it comes back to bite you later. Takes against Glirdan as well. Her and wilwa as buddies sounds unlikely given that they both suspect him. Suspects Nog for twisting her words or at least continuing to misunderstand them. Says 'trust me' waaaay too much.

I also have a tendency to be wary of anyone in this game who says "trust me".

Originally Posted by Kath

Wilwa - saw the downsides of having the stunned person reveal. Says focusing on TBW distracts from the more immediate danger of wolves and cobblers. Seems to have pretty clear and thought through reasons against Agan's revealing plan. I thought she was looking pretty good but then she takes against Glirdan for no reason I can particularly see.

Well, she did somewhat explain it, I think. And he also voted her for what he said was no reason at all.

Ok. Fine.

For lack of other options:

++Glirdan

I can't bring myself to vote Volo toDay, and Glirdan has the random vote for Wilwa and something of a nervy edge to his posts.

x/d with the last four

[Aganzir]

Eomer - Agan
Glirdan - wilwa
Volo - Agan 2
sally - Agan 3
Greenie - Glirdan
wilwa - Glirdan 2
Form - wilwa 2

Left: Agan, Zil, Kath, Lottie, Nerwen, Nogrod, Pitch, Shasta, EW

Is anyone else considering Nog or Volo?

[Aganzir]

Nog's last post makes considerably more sense than his earlier ones. I'm a bit torn about him at the moment - on the one hand, the way he treated me is freaking suspicious; on the other hand, he's also being a rational (and amusing) Nog. I might be tempted to give him a pass for today... but then, I'm all too aware of how smart a baddie he can be. Grr I'm confused.

[Inziladun]

*slides into chair*

DL happens to be at the exact time my work shift ends, and there's some stuff I need to get done before then.

Looks like a battle of the bandwagons at this point. Three for Agan, two apiece for Glirdy and Wilwa.

The Agan train still looks odd to me. She may be a baddie laughing her head off, but I can't get behind her lynch now.

Wilwa's done nothing to raise hackles.

I'd really be tempted to vote for Volo, but it seems wrong to do so when he hasn't played in so long. I'm such a softie, I know.

Eomer could be a possibility for getting the push against Agan started. I think Volo looks worse than he does, though.

x/d with the last three

[Boromir88]

30 minutes left.

[The Elf-warrior]

I'm gonna go with
++Volo.
I think Shasta found a freudian slip. I haven't read any farther than Nogrod's post after Shasta.

[Volo]

I'll try clearing up the misunderstandings briefly.

Originally Posted by Pitchwife

Agreed that who isn't with us is against us, but what exactly do two you mean with "the BW can even be really useful later on" (to whom?) and "whether she plays for us or for the wolves"? The BW's stunnings may happen to work in favour of one party now or the other next, but xe wins if xe's the sole survivor, so xe wants all of us dead in the long run.

When I wrote that I hadn't realized exactly what you mention here, I thought that the BW wins if either the Innocents or the Wolves win and the BW is still alive. So from the post you are refering to, I have changed my mind, and while the BW can be useful by stunning the last Wolf, it would probably be unintentional.

Originally Posted by Inziladun

How will the BW have these "educated hunches"? Xe will know who xe decided to stun, but not necessarily whether xe hit a wolf or a Gifted. How could xe know if xe hit the Seer and caused the loss of a dream, or caused Ferny to be unable to spy for the Night? The only concrete information the BW could get from xer stunning actions is if two wolves are gone already and there isn't a kill during a Night, meaning xe nailed the remaining wolf.

This is a game where certain knowledge is rare. Post-mortem role revelations and the dreams of a dead Seer are of such quality, but not much else. However players are making accusations based on little hunches, glimpses and clues, which are not definite. The BW also plays by these rules, being quite similar to an Ordo. However, xe can stun, which affects xer way of looking at players' roles. The knowledge of someone being stunned will certainly affect the way the BW looks upon xer victim next Day and might notice things others wouldn't necessarily notice. By "mildly eductated hunches" I meant a wider perspective than that of an ordo's.
Related to this was my comment of not angering the BW, which has also been understood in a way I didn't mean it. Based on basic WW psychology I see the following scenario very likely: The BW is suspected for one reason or the other and is very likely or certainly going to be lynched. Xer reaction to this is, probably, wanting revenge to those who caused xer demise, who, in the case of a lynch, are the Innocents (the lynch being the Innocents' way of killing). Xe can revenge by making the game more favourable to the enemies of xer enemies, the Wolves. And this is done by the BW telling on the game thread who xe thinks are the Gifteds - something a Cobbler would do in the similar situation. All in all this is a minor point explained in a long way and this discussion should perhaps be forgotten in favour of using up time for the real game, instead of meta.

Originally Posted by Shastanis Althreduin

Quite a lot of people talking about 'might' with nothing to back them up. And what's this about 'we'? As far as I know, innocents don't kill anything "quietly during the Night".

What I meant by the Innocents killing a Cobbler quietly during the Night was TB ('we') using his power during the Night to get rid of the BW, who is not unlike a Cobbler, which is an advantage to the Innocents. Refer to aforementioned reasons.

Originally Posted by The Elf-warrior

I'm gonna go with
++Volo.
I think Shasta found a freudian slip. I haven't read any farther than Nogrod's post after Shasta.

I assume you refer to the part I quoted. Well, I hope this post clarified enough.

[Nogrod]

What I think of Volo? Well, he might be a total nut-head baddie trying to go with the "then going flow" - or then he is an ordo who thought I was the seer.

Hard to say, which one.

[Nogrod]

I actually write this like ten minutes before the DL just to able to send it in time. Some of it has been said already and some might be redundant by now. But whatever.

Greenie is over-rationalising her vote. She looks suspicious.

I'm also worried about wilwa. She voted for Glirdy too easily.

Pitch is nicely saving wilwa (I've had a bad feeling about him all the Day - he's reasonable, but then again like a cheetah looking for a victim to jump upon).

Those two being wolves and not knowing of the cobbler would just make sense.

Aganzir is a baddie. Which type? A cobbler, of course.

[Aganzir]

Originally Posted by Inziladun

She may be a baddie laughing her head off, but I can't get behind her lynch now.

Trust me Inzil, if I was a baddie I totally wouldn't be laughing.

I'd really be tempted to vote for Volo, but it seems wrong to do so when he hasn't played in so long. I'm such a softie, I know.

It's the same with me, but I at least have the excuse of his vote for me. And he tends to be a bit eccentric sometimes.

Eomer could be a possibility for getting the push against Agan started. I think Volo looks worse than he does, though.

I could probably vote for him too. It would combine revenge and voting for a (thus far) non-substantial player nicely. Okay well I'm not revenge-voting per se, but I know he voted for an innocent which makes his vote either misguided or evil (or random, but you know what I mean ).

[Aganzir]

Originally Posted by Pitchwife

Not really. Think again, and look at all you've said.

Excluding misunderstandings on both sides, I think Nog was pushing it a lot farther than necessary. I realised there were problems with my suggestion and said it aloud, but he kept pointing out stuff and making me look like I was trying to distract everyone on purpose.

[Nogrod]

Originally Posted by Aganzir

Excluding misunderstandings on both sides, I think Nog was pushing it a lot farther than necessary. I realised there were problems with my suggestion and said it aloud, but he kept pointing out stuff and making me look like I was trying to distract everyone on purpose.

Aren't you now playing yourself a bit better than you are Aganzir? That "revealing the gifteds" stuff was hastily made by me (I did get carried away with my realisation you had to be the cobbler), but I still would hate a kind of universal deal that those stunned should reveal themselves as for a gifted that would be a really tight spot - and not good for us. (Argued that earlier)

But I still think you tried to divert our discussion into those "grandiose-plans" which would have required everyone's consent - and if they had gotten just a bit more air under their wings we would have used the whole Day into them. And that would have been counter-productive indeed.

It's D1 and all that and we need to discuss something, but not on a grand plan (well, two of them) requiring everyone's acceptance and consent which you know very well we will never reach!!!

[Aganzir]

Originally Posted by Shastanis Althreduin

And again, why would the BW side with us when they know we want them gone (and have to get them gone in order to win)?

I misunderstood the conditions for her winning. You can basically ignore those posts...

But then again it is Agan, who's evil even when she's not.

Eomer - Agan
Glirdan - wilwa
Volo - Agan 2
sally - Agan 3
Greenie - Glirdan
wilwa - Glirdan 2
Form - wilwa 2
Kath - wilwa 3
Pitch - Glirdan 3
Zil - Glirdan 4

Left: Agan, Lottie, Nerwen, Nogrod, Shasta, EW

[Loslote]

Originally Posted by Pitchwife

7. LOOKING FURRY/PEACHY/SKELETAL
Lottie - leave the BW alone if we have a chance to lynch xem? No, no, and no again, and I can't see an innocent suggesting that if she's thought out the ramifications; could well be the BW herself, or a cobbler or wolf trying to keep the BW around as long as xe won't prevent any Night-kills.

What? No. Just, no. If we think we have TBW, don't lynch him right away. Let TB, whose job it is to kill xem, kill xem. If he doesn't for some reason, lynch him the next Day, but you will notice how we get an extra lynch and are one baddie down this way.

Originally Posted by Aganzir

Lottie. I don't really like her insistence that we shouldn't try to lynch the BW. Pitch has a good point against her, but I haven't seen enough from her (apart from BW talk) to have a real opinion.

Insistance? Really? I was around at the very beginning of the Day. I haven't had time to really insist anything! You should remember what my insisting looks like. This isn't it.

Also: so, so sorry I'm so late. For some reason I was thinking DL was an hour later.

Brief list: I feel good about Nog, Glirdy, and Vanilwuffin. I feel not-so-good about Agan and Pitchie, but mostly just because they've been silly about TBW. Also Volo, but I've never played with him, so...meh.

EDIT: xed since Pitchie

[Aganzir]

Originally Posted by Loslote

If we think we have TBW, don't lynch him right away. Let TB, whose job it is to kill xem, kill xem. If he doesn't for some reason, lynch him the next Day

I still don't think it's quite that simple, but I won't start arguing about it 15 minutes before the deadline.

I haven't had time to really insist anything! You should remember what my insisting looks like. This isn't it.

Hahaha that's true! Yeah maybe insistence was a bit too strong a word.

I don't know what to think of the fact that I disagree with Lottie on almost everyone.

Eomer - Agan
Glirdan - wilwa
Volo - Agan 2
sally - Agan 3
Greenie - Glirdan
wilwa - Glirdan 2
Form - wilwa 2
Kath - wilwa 3
Pitch - Glirdan 3

Left: Agan, Zil, Lottie, Nerwen, Nogrod, Shasta, EW

[Boromir88]

10 minutes remaining. Final stretch!

[Loslote]

Three way tie, and I'm not particularly pleased with any of the possibilities. I will vote Agan to save Vanilwuffin and Glirdy, if I have to, simply because I think they're innocent (as far as you can be sure of anyone on Day 1) and I don't trust Agan. But I don't really suspect Agan, either, so I'd prefer not to lynch her, either...not-so-very-lovely.

EDIT: xed with Zil and Agan