WW LXXXII: Return to Tol-in-Gaurhoth

[Boromir88]

I found out I can't be here for the DL today and won't have much time, so I'm going to catch up in the thread and then gotta vote.

[wilwarin538]

Originally Posted by skip spence

Hm. If we lynch Legate and he is a wolf, chances are Lottie is innocent... Lynching Lottie would say little about Legate's role if she's innocent but if she's a wolf that would speak in favour of Legate. Actually I feel a little bit better about Legate after reviewing Day 2, although I'm still worried about him... Oh man this is tough!

I agree with this. They could both end up being innocent, but I see it very unlikely that they are both wolves. I feel very mixed up about the two of them. Some things they say seem very innocent to me, while others jump out as guilty. I think I'll need to take another look at them, but as it stands now I wouldn't object to voting for either of them.

Now for everyone else, I have some vague opinions. I'll be going back through everything soon so this could change, but just off memory and gut feelings, this is where I'm at:

Leaning guilty:

Lottie
Legate
Eönwë (I'll admit, that is purely a gut thing, this could change once I go back and look more closely)

Leaning innocent:

Nerwen
Boro
Nog

Very neutral:

Greenie
Inziladun
Ozban
Skip

[Nogrod]

I'm still reading yesterDay's posting but while doing that I ran to my own post discussing the oddity of D1 Shasta-wagon.

So Lottie gave Shasta the very first vote in the game. Inzil gave him the second personal vote (making it 2-1-1). Technically I'd say those are not yet bandwagoning - which doesn't mean they are innocents.

But looking at the wagon itself which practically sealed Shasta's fate, it was made by:

Glirdyranger (3rd vote)
Skip (4th vote)
Pitchinnocent (5th vote)

If Skip is innocent, then the whole wagon was built by innocents.

[skip spence]

Originally Posted by Nogrod

I
If Skip is innocent, then the whole wagon was built by innocents.

Yeah but didn't pretty much everyone vote Shasta anyway? And I wouldn't discount those first couple of votes either. Especially since the circumstances around Lottie's vote really was what set the whole thing in motion.

[A Little Green]

Phew, back here at last. Again, my apologies for yesterDay - toDay I should be here more or less until DL.

Originally Posted by Wilwa

I think this is the likely scenario:

ShastaSeer dreams of an innocent Nerwen, and leaves his various hints.

GlirdyRanger catches the hints and protects Nerwen.

Wolfies also catch the hints and try to kill Nerwen. Fail.

Next Day, Glirdy basically outlines that same scenario.

Wolfies see that as a Ranger hint. They could go for Nerwen who is basically a proven innocent and can't be protected a second Night in a row, or they could go after a likely Ranger and not have to worry about him anymore. Choice B is clearly what they went for.

Wilwa's scenario nicely sums up what I was thinking about. There is something off in the exchange between Nog and Inzil. I'll check that more thoroughly if I have time - I want to compose a list of some kind and read Skip.


EDIT: x-ed with Boro and two Skips

[A Little Green]

Looking at who we have here...

TRUST:
Nerwen - Well it seems pretty likely that she was Glirdan's Night 2 protection, possibly also Shasta's dream - but be the latter as it may it's unlikely she's a wolf. Will leave her alone for the time being.

MORE INNOCENT THAN NOT:
Legate - Looks like his innocent self to me.
Lottie - I'm still inclined to find her more innocent than not, though I'm not that sure anymore.
Ozban - Seems nicely independent-minded - a very rare trait in a new wolf, but then again I wouldn't put it past him. No arguments against him, nor a bad feeling, though.

(A freakish in-between category for those between "leaning innocent" and "headache"):
wilwa - Feels innocentish, though I couldn't say what I base that on. Might deserve a closer look as well actually, just because I realised I never really even considered the possibility that she's a wolf..

HEADACHE:
Boro - Scares me. First hunch: innocent. Second hunch: wolf. I'd prefer a closer look at him, we'll see if I have time.
Eönwë - Quite frankly I have no idea. I'm expecting him to turn up and explain a bit about his yesterDay's vote...
Inzil - Hmm. He is as impossible to read as always. Was the first to point out Glirdan's obvious hinting to having protected Nerwen. That could go both ways.
Nogrod - Agh. Confuses me to no end. Has been less aggressive than usual I think, and his exchange with Zil toDay was weird (don't know which of the two was the one who was off, though).

MORE EVIL THAN NOT:
skip - The one I'm currently feeling worst about, I'll make a separate post about him in a minute.

I don't like the size of my headache-category, and especially the number of people I have no idea about. Gah.


EDIT: x-ed with Eonwe, Ozzy and Leg

[Nogrod]

It was much larger job I thought but I've finally read through yesterDay taking notes of people's attitudes towards the Shasta - Pitchie dream scenario.

But reading it is just crazy as we can have wolves willing to press for Pitchie's lynch (none of the wolves is lynched and with a nice wagon the have a place to hide) and wolves willing to caustion us from Pitchie-lynch (as not to look too over-eager or to look good toDay). Also innocents could be either willing to drive for Pitchie lynch just to be sure, or caution against it as it is unbelievable (making Shasta a reckless seer) and thus possibly a lynch wasted.


Here are my notes then, in the order of their votes coming in - and a short comment of mine in italics.

Legate seems to downplay Pitch-issue basically with not mentioning it in the beginning and then later going for “could be this, could be that”, belives in the end Nerwen is the innocent dream. Is not "100% sure" Pitchie is the wolf (sic!). Says he will vote for either Glirdy or Lottie – of Pitch he says only he feels quite good! Votes Lottie (1)

It really looks strange. He looks a lot like a cobbler to me - not sure if he's a wolf though (it might depend a lot on what Lottie is as I don't think they are on the same side, unless innocents both - which I strongly suspect being the case).

Nerwen seems to understand why Shasta could have been dreaming of Pitch (nervous, first time seer). Has hard times between the two interpretations (well the other includes herself as an innocent so I hats off if she is innocent!). Says it is a dilemma: suspicious Lottie or not suspicious but possibly dreamt of Pitch. Votes Pitch (1)

It would be really unfortunate if Shasta has not dreamt of Nerwen and we tke her innocence for granted because of his posts... but she looks pretty innocent and reasonable so I'd say she's not on the top of my suspicions.

Greenie comes in in haste, says skip is the most suspicious and “wouldn’t mind” Pitchie gone either. Votes Skip (1)

Had she not been in a hurry I'd say this would be really suspicious, but looking at it as a vote made in a hurry I'd think it not that suspicious.

Ozban wavers between interpretations (the possibility vs. Pitchie looking good & Nerwen more likely dream). Votes Pitche (2) as it would be too stupid to let him get away.

Otherwise quite good, but I do wonder how come he earlier stressed the fact that a) Nerwen was the more likely dream to him, and b) Pitchie looked so good - and still ended up with voting Pitchie. Some risen eyebrows here.

wilwa says an innocent Nerwen looks more likely. After a pause comes and asks is someone really thinking we should gamble on Pitchie: the possibility of a dreamt wolf is enough to lynch him. Cut the crap and check Pitch. Votes Pitch (3)

Interesting change of mood there from early Day to late one - but is logical and considerate on everything else... Hard to say, but my guts say more innocent than not.

Inzil only comments on the possibilities. Is careful of possibilities, thinks Pitchwolf is a “strong possibility”. Wonders about Greenie’s vote: if Pitch turns out a wolf we should look at Greenie. There’s only one way of being sure with Pitch… Votes Pitchie (4)

Well he's careful indeed - and if you were looking for a careful wolf Zil might be our guy?

Skip seems to be on the map, but puts it in the tone of “maybe it was Pitchie?” Wants to see alternatives. Votes Legate (1)

Interesting choice... It really does stand out - would a wolf want to do that only not to be seen as someone with innocent blood in his hands? If Lottie is a wolf it might make sense, but I'm not that confident if voting Legate would make sense for a wolf even then...

Pitchie understandably votes for Lottie (2)

Dead and innocent.

Boro was the first to spell out the Shasta – Pitchie –case. Next (after opposite ideas had been entertained he withdraws from it somewhat). Later says he’s leaning towards Pitch. Ponders about the reasonableness of yet another bandwagon of 7… Rejects the idea of competition and votes Pitchie (5)

Came up with the scenario quite boldly but then clearly tried to withdraw himself from it's conclusions (I was not making a Pitchie lynch call). Also goes to and fro with the choices in the end but decides finally to go for Pitchie. Hard to say. Maybe a last minute "joining the crowd" move from a wolf. Or a "hands up" (well, let's check it then) from an innocent? In general he looks quite good but...

Lottie says if Pitch is the dreamt one, a wolf a packmate would press for Nerwen-dream interpretation. Considers Pitchie as a lynchee on the same level with various others. Stresses the only reason not to trust Pitchie is a possible dream. Would like to see some other options than Pitchie. Suspects Skip but votes Pitchie (6)

Among other things she did yesterDay this looks quite bad to me. Like she tried to look calm and gathered, not driving for the Pitch-lynch. Even goes on to suspect Skip in her last post - and then votes Pitchie to blend in to the crowd?

Nog goes to and fro with Pitch-scenario: it is tempting but it goes against what Shasta would be as the seer... Doesn't like the idea of yet another 7-vote wagon and finally thinks Lottie a better chance. Votes Lottie (3)

Not knowing of the last two votes if I may add.

Steve comes in late and discusses things from D1… Evades the Pitch-subject. Votes Lottie (4)

As hasty, odd and maddening as he was on D1. I'd really like to hear his promised explanation to his vote - and why does he use his precious few minutes discussing things from D1 in the end of D2 - especially as they seem to have little bearing with what we have at stake there, in the end of D2?


Jesus! But I did it!

I'm in for a break now, but will be back later.

[Eönwë]

Originally Posted by Nogrod

Steve comes in late and discusses things from D1… Evades the Pitch-subject. Votes Lottie (4)

Really? And actually, on my other post, there was actually only actually one thing that was not completely relevant to the end of Day 2.


As for why I voted Lottie, well, other than Shasta's accusations (which didn't seem Seer-hintish to me anyway), I didn't see any reason to suspect Pitch, and thought that it was far more likely that Shasta had dreamed Nerwen. And more importantly, I thought that if we killed Pitch and found out he was innocent (as was the case), the wolves would go after Nerwen, who was basically a proven innocent, and I was worried because I thought that she was the Ranger.

For one thing, I thought that maybe that was why Shasta tried to draw so little attention to his calling Nerwen innocent (by covering it with all the Pitchwife stuff). It's one thing to try not to make it too obvious that someone is an innocent, but if they're a gifted then you need even more care, and that's what I thought was going on. And her first post seemed like it could be a Ranger hint too. And even though I admit that that maybe wasn't solid proof of her being a Ranger, I didn't want to risk. It turned out that the Ranger ended up dead anyway, so I suppose I failed.

And also, Lottie seemed (and still does seem) more than a little suspicious.


edit: x-ed since the Nog post I quoted and fixed one sentence.

[Ozban]

Originally Posted by Nogrod

If Skip is innocent, then the whole wagon was built by innocents.

What a "funny" thought.

I really like Skip's posts analyzing Legate. And I tend to vote for him today. First he openly doubts Pitch's furryness. And than he washes his hands, by voting Lottie.
Same he did the day before. He made his case against her, never wavered (that itself looks weird, considering lack of any evidence). Truth is, that his second Lottie-vote might have been just a rushed, it was first vote on second lynch, and Leg was going off, but it more likely was calculated move, because Pitch's lynching was unavoidable, and it's much better-looking this way than, propeling secong wagon in a row.

Originally Posted by skip spence

Then, after some seemingly meaningless chatter Legate is first to raise concerns about that Shasta-Lottie exchange.

He didn't vote for Shasta actually (D1), but he started discussion that led to it, and then he voted Lottie, but not sooner than first Shasta-vote was cast (by Lottie actually)

I just don't trust him, I will probably vote for him if something big doesn't happen.

Later...

Edit: X'ed from 235 onwards.

[Boromir88]

Well, that was of little help. I'm having no idea what to think or feel as my creative streak has now been lost with my mind.

Other than I think Nerwen was the one protected by Glirdan the previous night and is therefor most likely innocent. She could still be the cobbler of course (what rotten luck would that be?), but is not in anyway looking like one right now. I'd still like to see more posts from her, because overall I've liked reading her posts.

Wilwa seems a bit feistier and aggressive than her normal charming, relaxing butterfly persona. This could be from a combination of past experiences as a queen wolf with Zeus and now Glirdan's death. But I agreed with her about Pitch yesterday, and despite what Nog said earlier today, she never wavered. A wolf could push for the easy lynch, but I thought of her yesterday as more cobbler than anything else. I would have expected the cobbler to waver and be unsure on how to deal with Pitch.

Oi, who to suspect though...all I ever was warry on Nog about was uneasy gut feelings. Feeling better by him today. His voting has certainly been questionable, but I think he always showed fair caution towards Pitch yesterday and tried offering different ideas. One of the wolves then could have piggy-backed on to claim they weren't going to vote for Pitch because of what happened with Day 1 on Shasta.

Although, like wilwa said yesterday that is a completely different situation. At least the way I see it, we had substantial enough reasons to suspecting and voting for Pitch, and Pitch knew it too. He really had no defense, other than having no clue why Shasta suspected him the way he did.

++Eonwe

I know it's kind of crappy to do this, but I'm going to gone for the rest of the day. Those last minute, right before the DL posts are just confusing me and impossible to read before the DL is up. Also, his voting has been suspect with abstaining from voting on Day 1. Although, understandable because at that point no vote would have mattered. But then then Day 2's vote for Lottie which he cryptically said he'd explain today. I was hoping he'd be on sooner to explain it this time, but appears not.

[wilwarin538]

Originally Posted by Boromir88

Wilwa seems a bit feistier and aggressive than her normal charming, relaxing butterfly persona. This could be from a combination of past experiences as a queen wolf with Zeus and now Glirdan's death.

Haha, definetely both. I think after working so closely with my dear Zeusykins, I've taken on a bit of his attitude. And for once I felt good about my BFF, and I think he felt good about me, so I'm super annoyed that he's gone, and him being the Ranger just makes it that much worse. To be left with only 1 of the 3 Gifteds, the Hunter certainly is not the most useful of them (no offense).

Anyway, I have a notebook in front of me and will be going back to the beginning to take some notes and try to get a better idea of everything. As long as my mild ADD doesn't kick in, I should get this done fairly efficiently and have something useful to say.

x'ed with Legate and Greenie, and yes it did take me over 10 minutes to type this, I'm telling you, ADD....

[skip spence]

Have had a quick look at Inziladun too. Funny thing, when looking through his posts there's precious little that seem worth quoting. He, if anyone, has been threading very carefully. Not posting much, sort of poking around, now and then raising slight concerns about people without pressing it too hard..

ToDay he focusses on why Glirdan was targeted. Why is this so important to us now, Inzil?

[Eönwë]

What!? It seems we must have some psychic wolves... *would glare at Shasta but he's sadly not here any more*

Originally Posted by wilwarin538

The Hunter definitely should not reveal any time soon.

I don't think the Hunter should reveal at all unless in danger of being lynched, as then we'd have a known innocent that the wolves hopefully won't attack out of fear (if this does happen, then hopefully it will be later on, when the hunter's more likely to choose correctly).

Anyway, I'm going to reread yesterDay before I do anything else.

[Legate of Amon Lanc]

Okay, I am back and around... to my surprise and partially delight, it seems you people haven't been overactive toDay, although I must say, even though it really delights me that I don't have million pages to catch up, still perhaps I would have preferred people posting more than less...

But not saying anything until I read what is that that's been discussed...

[Nerwen]

Originally Posted by Nogrod

If Skip is innocent, then the whole wagon was built by innocents.

It's happened before.

Originally Posted by skip spence

Have had a quick look at Inziladun too. Funny thing, when looking through his posts there's precious little that seem worth quoting. He, if anyone, has been threading very carefully. Not posting much, sort of poking around, now and then raising slight concerns about people without pressing it too hard..

This is true, and I find him rather creepy. However–

Originally Posted by skip spence

ToDay he focusses on why Glirdan was targeted. Why is this so important to us now, Inzil?

I don't like this, skip– it looks as if you're just latching on to this:

Originally Posted by Nogrod

So Inzil. It looks like you have been reading what Glirdy had said yesterDay but I see no post from you summarising it - or telling us anything about it on general terms - like why you have been reading them or what did you find out from them.

In fact, earlier in the Day, when Zil was talking about it, it was a pretty obvious question. So what you just did looks... also rather creepy.

I do like your analysis of Legate, though. I'm torn.

Originally Posted by Eönwë

What!? It seems we must have some psychic wolves... *would glare at Shasta but he's sadly not here any more*

You had better not be a wolf, Steve. "It seems we must have some psychic wolves" *pats self on back*"

EDIT:X'd since Steve.

[skip spence]

Originally Posted by Nerwen

In fact, earlier in the Day, when Zil was talking about it, it was a pretty obvious question. So what you just did looks... also rather creepy.

Okay, quickly responding to this: I fail to see why this was such an obvious question. Maybe it's my lack of ww experience, but why is it such an interesting question how the wolves picked Glirdy as the ranger. I don't think it was a coincidence (since they could've taken the safe choice and killed off the protected person last night) but still, even if we can identify his slip, does that make it easier to find the culprits? And if so, how is that?

Will be off for a short bit but should be back soonish.

Curious to her from Greenie why she suspects me too...

[Nerwen]

Originally Posted by skip spence

Okay, quickly responding to this: I fail to see why this was such an obvious question. Maybe it's my lack of ww experience, but why is it such an interesting question how the wolves picked Glirdy as the ranger. I don't think it was a coincidence (since they could've taken the safe choice and killed off the protected person last night) but still, even if we can identify his slip, does that make it easier to find the culprits?

It's usual to speculate a bit on why someone was killed, especially in a case where it's unexpected. Also, Nogrod raised the point first. Also, it's an argument for my being a known innocent. So I still don't see what you're worrying about.

None of this, of course, means that Zil couldn't be a wolf helpfully explaining the reasons for the kill. They do that sometimes.

[Eönwë]

Originally Posted by skip, bolding mine

why is it such an interesting question how the wolves picked Glirdy as the ranger. I don't think it was a coincidence (since they could've taken the safe choice and killed off the protected person last night) but still, even if we can identify his slip, does that make it easier to find the culprits? And if so, how is that?

Is that a confession? It's just that the wording there sounds quite certain that that's why the wolves chose him.



edit: fixed quote. Wow. My formatting is terrible toDay.

[Legate of Amon Lanc]

First one thing. As for Glirdy's death, if you take the facts - only the fact we have are enough! - it is only logical: I don't see why people did not see it earlier, I mean, you had all Day and nobody mentioned what seems obvious to me: if Nerwen is innocent, which now after PW turned not to be guilty seems clear, then the WWs know it. Okay? And they know the Ranger protected her. Okay? So they just look who said what about Nerwen the Day before. And I remember how the beginning of the Day was, because I was there: Boro came, and started talking about the options, and saying Pw is the most likely. And then Glirdy came and was pressing really strongly the Nerwen-case. Now, what would one think...

Otherwise, comments about yesterDay and the little bit of toDay, too:

I am once again starting to doubt Boro. Largely because of his speculation about the kill the Day before. Even though later he said he didn't really advocate it, he at least mentioned Pitch being dreamed of as the most probable scenario. And if nothing else, that would lead Glirdy-Ranger to state the opposite, since Glirdy would know whom he was protecting: if I am right about my conclusions, innocent Nerwen (whom I now find most likely to be his protectee and thus innocent).

And the analysis Boro made yesterDay in #156 seemed just very much interpretative with the addendum that "perhaps wilwa is the Cobbler", which could be even Borowolf himself checking here whether it wasn't supposed to be a Cobbler signal (the phrasing):

Originally Posted by Boromir88

One thing away from the band-wagon yesterday, to say to is about Wilwa's self-vote. It may be the frustration of having a meaningless vote, but it looks pretty weird and flippant. More like a cobbler signal to the wolves though than a wolf casting a meaningless vote. She said she never had the chance to vote for herself, seems to have wanted to and now was as good of a chance as any, but also find yourself a good opportunity to say "Here's your cobbler wolvsies," Wilwa?

Note please he starts to speak in third person and then he switches into talking to her directly, as if "Yes, Wilwa? Is it so? Are you a cobbler?") Later, he wrote that he was "waiting for response"... so was he, indeed?

Now wilwa's reply to Boro didn't seem very cobblerish, but her vote was a bit weird (or the explanation of it, in the light of the current events). She really was basically like "let's start the bandwaggon!" I would like to hear more from her, like, what was going through your mind at that moment, wilwa? Can you somehow elaborate or re-explain it?

Boro's vote toDay and sometimes his sort of "addendum" to the existing suspicions of other players seem eyebrow-raising, but especially with the vote I am not sure if it is a Wolf-y thing. Unless he is following something by this random voting, if it's his style now or something.

I still don't quite trust Lottie based on yesterDay's later responses to me (post 161). It seems to me more like it's just covering the tracks.

Originally Posted by Nogrod

Bah... I'm not going to continue on this as it looks like it takes hours and I think I've found enough for the work for now. I really would like to hear what Legate has to say of this record.

To me it looks like someone who knew very well Pitchie was innocent but who wished to lay low as not to be seen as one not too keen on raising the discussion or hammering it out. I know him to be such an intelligent guy that it totally baffles me he does not entertain the possibility Pitchie is a wolf earlier - and when he feels forced to take sides he nicely takes "the right side" against "all evidence" we had thus far (and not discussing the evidence but just taking sides).

Or is he the cobbler? That could explain a lot as well...

I don't know what do you want me to "respond", as you say, because I have nothing to respond. You didn't ask me anything. What you write is your opinion, and if you find what I said suspicious, then it's your problem, not mine. I merely stated, and I believe you can see clearly what I was thinking from my posts: that I think pitch is innocent and thought so based on his behavior (from earlier and still at that time) and that the only reason why I could doubt him is the possibility that he was dreamt of. Imagine the situation: you find somebody innocent, and then you hear he's possibly the Seer's dream. What do you do? I did the thing I did: I said I am not dismissing the chance, as based on the evidence of Shasta's posts it was equally possible for me that it was Nerwen or him, but my personal opinion was that definitely I am not voting him, and I thought the dream was Nerwen - largely because I found it more likely that she is innocent than that Pw is wolf! Is that clear now?

Originally Posted by Nogrod

But looking at the wagon itself which practically sealed Shasta's fate, it was made by:

Glirdyranger (3rd vote)
Skip (4th vote)
Pitchinnocent (5th vote)

A note, I just love it how I say something in the middle of Day 2 and somebody pulls it as a huge discovery sometime in the middle of Day 3... this is not the first time it happened. I am just saying this out of curiosity, as I have never experienced anything like this before, but in this game it happens all the time, I say something and somebody else pulls it out of the sleeve as an incredible discovery a long time after...

EDIT: x-ed with Nerwens and skip

[Nogrod]

Finally got the home-PC open...

Just a short one here. I'll eat and then come back for the rest of the Day...

Originally Posted by Legate of Amon Lanc

A note, I just love it how I say something in the middle of Day 2 and somebody pulls it as a huge discovery sometime in the middle of Day 3... this is not the first time it happened. I am just saying this out of curiosity, as I have never experienced anything like this before, but in this game it happens all the time, I say something and somebody else pulls it out of the sleeve as an incredible discovery a long time after...

So you knew it in the middle of D2 that Pitch was innocent... you knew that?

Originally Posted by Leg

I don't know what do you want me to "respond", as you say, because I have nothing to respond. You didn't ask me anything.

The choice of the word here was probably bad. I mean that while more and more people started discussing how important it would be to have a stance on the Shasta - Pitch issue you seemed to not even notice it - and whenm you did, you felt being quite roundabout with it - like not thinking it important - or just trying not to comment on it.

But on another note, after reading your post I'm caught thinking that there is something wrong in this whole episode (including the way I have been thinking about it). I need to think of all this again...

What you write is your opinion, and if you find what I said suspicious, then it's your problem, not mine

[A Little Green]

As usual in my analyses, I have not a) mentioned all his posts (eg. clarifications on stuff said before or otherwise stuff I have nothing to comment on) or b) full quotes of all the posts I quote. So, in short, I've gathered here what I found noteworthy in going through Skip's posts.

Day 1

56: Long IC and the following:

Right then. Time to hunt some wolves.

I'm always unnerved when people say that, but since innocents do it as much as wolves one can't really hold it against him..

57 (in full):

Well then, I've read the thread and all this cobbler-talk obviously stands out. Some of it strikes me as silly, and some of it strikes me as right sinister, as it is strictly theoretical at this point without any cobbler suspects and is therefore a distraction from more important business, that is, deciding on a name. I fear that what we are hearing are the treacherous tongues of Sauron.

Some other impressions.

Green is being captain obvious.

Nerwen is the one most determined to stay in character whatever that means...

Boro chides people for posting too long then promptly posts a long, rather pointless and somewhat irrational post that in many ways repeats things already stated more than once.

I also agree with Legate that Nogrod's reasoning seems a bit dull toDay. Is the old master-hunter losing his touch, or is he no longer himself. Hard to say...

As it stands I might vote Shasta toDay for reasons I'd rather not disclose at this point... But I'll vote closer to the DL...

A question to Legate. What makes you single out Wilwa as especially reasonable?

Hmm. I don't like the manner of this. Of course it's almost impossible to have more than vague uneasinesses (not proper English probably but since I like the sound of that I had to write it..) on Day 1, but Skip's vagueness is fishy - he's very careful not to say he suspects the people he mentions but rather leaves it at "this might be a bit odd, or might not be..."

82 (in full):

hm, have been getting phone-calls all night, uhm Osanwe Kenta calls I mean, and never really had time for a closer look at people... Would rather see Shasta than Lottie go though...

94 (in full):

You know, I'm fine with ...

++Shasta

Easy, though innocents did that too. Don't like the phrasing.

Day 2

124 (in full):

Oh dear. Has the Power of the Lord of Waters withdrawn from the Great River that flows beside this accursed isle at last? We have slain the one who could've been most useful for all of us!

But onwards, forwards!

I gotta sleep now but two things I leave for you to discuss if you will.

Firstly, the reason I voted Shasta was not so much his behaviour but rather Lottie's very flimsy accusation. It was so off I actually felt that she might've known something we did not. I felt that there was a distinct possibility that she was the Seer and that she dreamt of a Shasta-wolf, and as his subsequent reaction did not console me that was the best I could come up with at that point. A mistake, obviously.

But Lottie, I think you should explain to us again why you found Shasta suspicious.

Another thing. I suppose that had Shasta dreamed an innocent the first Night we'd find no clues as to who that was. But if he did dream a wolf, wouldn't he have left something for us should he chance to die? And Shasta's main suspect seem to have been Pitch. Could he have dreamed of him?


Aurë entuluva!

The first paragraph strikes me as false - but then again could be only IC so I wouldn't read too much into it. The latter part is what interests me more. He "leaves things to discuss" while he's away. His demand of explanation from Lottie is reasonable, though could also be read as a wolf sniffing an easy lynch-candidate. Especially when coupled with the second "thing to discuss", Pitchie as Shasta's possible dream. Now there's nothing wrong with that, but what worries me is the same I pointed out in his Day 1 post of impressions: he is careful not to say he himself suspects somebody, but rather encourages others to. I don't like it. Also, this post looks a bit like the wolves have plotted at Night that getting either Lottie or Pitch lynched, and Skip starts the work. I'm not convinced a Skippywolf would be so obvious though.

172: Answering a question about why he didn't see Shasta's Pitch-suspicion as a possible sign of Seerism if he considered Lottie's Shasta-suspicion as such.

Why not? I suppose that although Shasta's accusation of Pitch also did seem weak (something almost unavoidable on a Day 1 unless a wolf makes a very foolish and blatant mistake I think), Lottie's motivation to attack Shasta was just plain ridiculous if she had honest intentions and as she, as we now know, isn't the Seer.

I mean, what in the name of Eru Illuvatar could been seen as suspicious in that? Not sure if a wolf would be so careless though...

Not convinced by this reasoning, but that's about differing opinions and not about innocent/guilty.

192 (in full):

But okay, you do have a point too. It's better to have some alternatives, more might be learned from that.

So as the votes are now piling up in Pitch I'll go for:

++Legate

he says a lot but isn't really helpful (that theoretic Cobbler-talk is a prime example)

I - don't - like this. He was among the very first to point out the obvious scenario that Pitch was Shasta's dream - he left it for us to discuss at the very beginning of the Day - and yet he doesn't vote Pitch when the voting time comes but instead makes an odd vote for Legate. If he truly considered it was a real possibility Pitch was Shasta's dream, where did this vote come from? There is a reason, sure enough, but it doesn't look as convincing as "potential Seer-dreamed wolf". And we can't assume Skip disagreed with the "Pitch was dreamed of" -theory since he was among the first to bring that up.


Day 3

228 (in full; underlining mine):

Man, this has been a very unfortunate start to the game. First the Seer, and with him he takes an innocent, and now our ranger! I'm not too happy about how Shasta singled out someone he didn't know the role of, that made Day 2 an all too easy ride for the wolves.

What Nogrod says pretty much mirrors my spontaneous thoughts of how things have played out.

Agreed that the wolves would have had no need to push the lynching of Pitch. Nor would they stand out for participating in it, mind you. Seeing how our Seer had singled him out on Day 1, The noose was tightening around Pitch's neck pretty much from the start.

I also agree that Legate is beginning to look bad. Will review his actions now...

A few things I dislike in this post. First off, the tone of the first paragraph doesn't look genuine. That could be just my imagination though so I'm not giving too much weight to that. The rest is, once again, more noteworthy. I'm especially concerned about the underlined part. It doesn't only look like latching onto Nog supporting the same suspicion he had yesterDay in a very fishy manner, but also I'm wondering how come Legate is only beginning to look bad - considering that Skip found him bad enough yesterDay to vote over someone he himself had pointed out as a possible Seer-dreamed wolf.

He then proceeds to analyse Legate (lost the post numbers, too lazy to check), this being his conclusion:

Hm. If we lynch Legate and he is a wolf, chances are Lottie is innocent... Lynching Lottie would say little about Legate's role if she's innocent but if she's a wolf that would speak in favour of Legate. Actually I feel a little bit better about Legate after reviewing Day 2, although I'm still worried about him... Oh man this is tough!

Again, understandable if he's innocent, clever if he's a wolf: backing off a little but being "still worried" leaves a nice open door both ways, depending on what others think of Legate.

236 (in full):

Have had a quick look at Inziladun too. Funny thing, when looking through his posts there's precious little that seem worth quoting. He, if anyone, has been threading very carefully. Not posting much, sort of poking around, now and then raising slight concerns about people without pressing it too hard..

ToDay he focusses on why Glirdan was targeted. Why is this so important to us now, Inzil?

This strikes me as slightly odd. To me it looks more or less like he's describing the usual Inzil, who's always careful and slippery regardless of role, and again, he's raising slight doubts without openly suspecting. Talking about treading carefully...

237 (in full):

Yeah but didn't pretty much everyone vote Shasta anyway? And I wouldn't discount those first couple of votes either. Especially since the circumstances around Lottie's vote really was what set the whole thing in motion.

I don't like this either, the way he offhandedly discards the validity of suspecting him based on his Shasta-vote because everyone did it anyway, and then goes off to turn the suspicion instead to Lottie and the other first voters (for voting Shasta).


And that's it. The early parts are the things that made me vote Skip yesterDay, only organised. I have to say he hasn't exactly improved since then. Quite the contrary, after looking through his posts he looks even fishier than before. The major things I have against him are a) his easy yet crucially placed bandwagon-vote for Shasta and the easy discarding of any possible suspiciousness therein; b) his pointing out Pitch being a possible dreamed wolf, yet still voting Legate for lynch with rather weaker reasons; and c) his general manner of encouraging others to suspect instead of openly suspecting himself.


EDIT: wow, x'ed since Nerwen's 245. This took longer than I thought..

[skip spence]

Well, Greenie, your points against me are terribly subjective and vague on the whole. It's sounds like you'd already made up your mind about the outcome of your analysis before even getting started. I mean, these are just a few examples of your "arguments":

Originally Posted by A Little Green

A
56: Long IC and the following: I'm always unnerved when people say that, but since innocents do it as much as wolves one can't really hold it against him..
...
Hmm. I don't like the manner of this. Of course it's almost impossible to have more than vague uneasinesses...

...don't like the phrasing.

...the first paragraph strikes me as false - but then again could be only IC so I wouldn't read too much into it.

...Not convinced by this reasoning, but that's about differing opinions and not about innocent/guilty.

...the tone of the first paragraph doesn't look genuine. That could be just my imagination though so I'm not giving too much weight to that.

...Again, understandable if he's innocent, clever if he's a wolf: backing off a little but being "still worried"

This seems worth replying to though:

192 (in full): I - don't - like this. He was among the very first to point out the obvious scenario that Pitch was Shasta's dream - he left it for us to discuss at the very beginning of the Day - and yet he doesn't vote Pitch when the voting time comes but instead makes an odd vote for Legate. If he truly considered it was a real possibility Pitch was Shasta's dream, where did this vote come from? There is a reason, sure enough, but it doesn't look as convincing as "potential Seer-dreamed wolf". And we can't assume Skip disagreed with the "Pitch was dreamed of" -theory since he was among the first to bring that up.

I, much like all others it seems (bar the Wolves) though that Shasta could've dreamed Pitch, that this was a likely scenario. There are however three wolves out there still and as I also found Legate suspicious I felt another alternative could be wise to bring forwards, especially since the catastrophe of the Day 1 bandwagon. And the vote wasn't a throwaway, there was still enough people left to vote to change the outcome... In retrospect it would've been nice to have seen a closer voting too, wouldn't you say?

Edit: xed with Legate and Greenie whose question I've already answered.