Werewolf LXXXI: Under the Misty Mountains

[Mirandir]

*is a super epic fail at this game and would request modfire if Fea wouldn't literally eat her soul and probably forbid her to ever loiter at her house again ever*

On that note, I am in desperate need of a nap and will be legitimately around after that (given I don't die in my sleep or something). If there's anything in particular people would like me to respond to, condensed versions would be much appreciated.

x.x

[the phantom]

Originally Posted by Legate

Off for a while, will be back in several hours. Looking forward to see some posts... May The Phorc Not Be Among Them in excessive amount.

Yeah, what are the chances of that.

Originally Posted by Green

Looking forwards to seeing what they will do! I'm feeling optimistic right now.

Are you always this optimistic? Because I almost want to suspect you for it, as it is usually quite difficult to convince me of my chances until something is nearly in the bag or the odds are stacked heavily in favor, and even then I tend to worry and fear the worst. Blast you and your different way of thinking!

Originally Posted by Lommy

Funny that the two whom phantom wanted to see dead yesterDay ended up modfired toDay... Phantom dear, are you sure you haven't been bribing our moddesses?

Are you questioning me? Because if you are...
*prepares to send another bribe to the Mods*

Kath is here!! And looks good.

Anyway, I'll be back with a Rep voting list and such (for both days) and will give some thoughts.

[the phantom]

REP VOTING DAY 1:

Sally-->Phantom
Lottie-->Phantom (2)
Rune-->Lommie
Greenie-->Nerwen
Nog-->Izzy
Mira-->Phantom (3)
Boro-->Wilwa
Lommie-->Greenie
Steve-->Greenie (2)
Dun-->Boro
Shasta-->Izzy (2)
Legate-->Nerwen (2)
Cel-->Foley
Phantom-->Cel
Nerwen-->Lommie (2)
Wilwa-->Lommie (3)
Foley-->Cel (2)
Izzy-->Wilwa (2)

REP VOTING DAY 2:

Nerwen-->Shasta
Rune-->Steve
Green-->Steve (2)
Nog-->Legate
Steve-->Legate (2)
Lommy-->Nog
Inzil-->Shasta (2)
Wilwa-->Foley
Legate-->Foley (2)
Shasta-->Nerwen
Sally-->Nog (2)
Phantom-->Legate (3)

*******************************

LYNCH VOTING DAY 1:

Lommy-->Lottie (3)
Green-->Sally (2)
Nerwen-->Sally (3)
Nerwen-->Boro (1)
Celuien-->Boro (3)
Wilwa-->Sally (4)
Wilwa-->Lottie (4)
Izzy-->Lottie (6)

*******************************

And now, some observations-

(1) I'm not sure I entirely understand the Rep vote of Legate today. From beginning to end of this day he generally seems to believe I am an Orc, and yet he handed his vote to Foley who has attacked no one other than me this game. Not to mention that she didn't put in an appearance yesterday and said she would barely be around today, and so really, how much time does that give her to catch up on reading and change her opinions?

I am not trying to be insulting and say that Foley is predictable and a tool to be used (she seems quite independent), but in this specific situation where she was so very very against me yesterday and will have little time to change her views today, I can't help but suspect she's being taken advantage of here. And then when she votes me (if I'm lynched) Legate can act all sad and justified, "See, I was right, he was innocent, and I didn't vote for him," and pretend that he had nothing to do with killing me.

(2) Same with Wilwa naturally, who also voted for Foley. From what I've seen she hasn't exactly been after me today. She's been more wishy-washy, sort of the old "I can see your point about how he might not be trustworthy" but then "Oh but this doesn't make him look bad". About the only certain thing I saw from her regarding me is that she didn't want to make me a Rep. But to vote for Foley given her very obvious leanings and time restraints- I've got to think Wilwa actually wants me dead.

(3) If Sally is innocent, then the lynch voting from yesterday... Celuien and Green would be the more obvious votes to save Lottie, while Nerwen and Wilwa would be the careful and subtle votes to save Lottie.

Green straight up tossed out the second one of the duo (Sally-Lottie), while Celuien seeing a chance to lynch Boro put him into a tie for the lead.

Nerwen put Sally into a tie with Lottie and then used her other vote to nudge up Boro (his first vote)- a move much less obvious than tossing two votes onto one of them.

Then Wilwa was perhaps the most calculating of all. Had she used both votes on Sally, it still would not have put Lottie out of lynching, as Izzy could've tied them and I believe had stated at that stage that she favored lynching Lottie, not to mention that I was around and had listed Sally (but not Lottie) on my list of people I definitely did not want to lynch, and so Wilwa would have assumed that if I wished to avoid a double lynch I would've lynche Lottie ahead of Sally. Also, giving them each only one vote also kept the door open for the double lynch with Boro, as I had indeed been shopping him as a candidate. Wow... when I think about this and write it out, Wilwa's vote, if she's a SoE, looks downright brilliant given the situation.

[satansaloser2005]

Originally Posted by the phantom

Then Wilwa was perhaps the most calculating of all. Had she used both votes on Sally, it still would not have put Lottie out of lynching, as Izzy could've tied them and I believe had stated at that stage that she favored lynching Lottie, not to mention that I was around and had listed Sally (but not Lottie) on my list of people I definitely did not want to lynch, and so Wilwa would have assumed that if I wished to avoid a double lynch I would've lynche Lottie ahead of Sally. Also, giving them each only one vote also kept the door open for the double lynch with Boro, as I had indeed been shopping him as a candidate. Wow... when I think about this and write it out, Wilwa's vote, if she's a SoE, looks downright brilliant given the situation.

See what I mean? She's an evil, evil muffin and needs to be eaten....erm, lynched.

[Nogrod]

phantom: stop that "I'm the known orc and everyone's having a conspiracy to lynch me" -parade, please.

[Shastanis Althreduin]

Also, all this suspicion of Wilwa has the feel of a bandwagon to it. Especially after Phantom hopped on (I was going to say Sally as well but I think she's actually been suspecting the Muffin most of the day). I probably won't be voting her today. Ideally I'd like to lynch Sally, but I don't think Legate and Nogrod are going to go for it, and to beat their five (should they choose to vote together), Eonwe, Folwren, and myself would all have to vote the same way. I think Eonwe was in the "Lottie being an elf makes Sally look better" camp, and it's looking like Folwren may not be here to vote at all, so... Hm. I need to think.

[Nogrod]

Originally Posted by Shastanis Althreduin

Also, all this suspicion of Wilwa has the feel of a bandwagon to it. Especially after Phantom hopped on (I was going to say Sally as well but I think she's actually been suspecting the Muffin most of the day).

I do agree with this bandwagoning feeling and I don't like it... But still to me she looks like the best option toDay. And I'm not going to shy away from reasonable odds of getting an elf lynched only because some others agree. Look at my post #469 as I came back online after reading D1 at home. And read it concerning Wilwa. Also, before assessing tp as "just hopping on a bandwagon", please read what he says about Wilwa's voting. It makes a lot of sense (well of course as I had reached the same conclusion myself ).

So rather than say: x is bandwagoning, please tell me where the stated suspicion goes wrong. If we who think her suspicious are missing an important point, then please share it so that we don't lynch an innocent.

X'd with tp

[wilwarin538]

So I have a Glirdanpie visiting me at the moment, but he'll be returning to his secret lair shortly. Once I get back I will be able to contribute more for the rest of the day.

[Nogrod]

Btw. Shasta - and ayone not thinking about this before, how about you really considered this...

Originally Posted by the rules

Beginning on Night Three, the orc of unknown allegiance will receive intelligence based on xis decision of allegiance (which xe will make via PM on Day Two). If this tricksy orc chooses to ally xerself with the Sons of Elrond, xe will learn the identity of one Son of Elrond per Night until each Son is revealed. The Sons of Elrond will be notified that this orc is now playing for their side, but they will not be given the player's identity. If this orc chooses to ally xerself with the village, xe will receive the names of the players the seer has dreamt of, but not their roles. The seer will be notified that this orc is now playing for their side, but they will not be given the player's identity. The orc of unknown allegiance appears as as such to the seer, should xe be dreamt of. If the seer dreams of xim before xe chooses sides, the seer will be updated as to xer side once xe has chosen. The orc of unknown allegiance MUST choose a side on Day Two and may not remain neutral.

You all know the choice has been made toDay...

[the phantom]

Originally Posted by Shasta

Re (1) - If all this is the case, why did you vote for Legate for representative?

Because, for starters, I don't know that this was what he was trying to do. It's just a theory I wanted to hear him answer. Plus, I didn't think he'd outright stab me in the back even if he is evil. Not his style (as evidenced by my accusation- I see him as being much sneakier). Self-preservation, ya know. Also this is the first chance I've had to fully think and respond to all the Rep votes.

Originally Posted by Nog

phantom: stop that "I'm the known orc and everyone's having a conspiracy to lynch me" -parade, please.

Sorry Nog, but when someone gets elected who is as good a lock as anyone in the village to vote for you, you tend to look at it closely. And nowhere in that entire post do I tell people that I am "the known Orc", unless of course you are referring to the fact that for my accusation to make sense I would naturally have to be an Orc, but that goes without saying. We all base our suspicions and defenses upon the fact that we ourselves are innocent (and we can't hope for anyone to believe our theories if we aren't first viewed as such). We can't help but do so as that is the only fact we know. So really, your chiding is not at all necessary.

(edit: missing line)

[the phantom]

Originally Posted by Shasta

Also, all this suspicion of Wilwa has the feel of a bandwagon to it. Especially after Phantom hopped on

I didn't "hop on". I left immediately after the Rep voting was over last night and I've been very busy ever since. Just a few posts up where I posted the vote count- that was the first time I had really taken a look at the Rep votes, and Wilwa's vote stood out to me. And when I examined her lynch vote from yesterday working from a new angle (I was wanting to suspect her after her Rep vote) her lynch vote looked suddenly more suspicious to me.

Yes, I realize that leap may be partly flawed due to the "If you're looking at something already expecting or wanting to find guilt/innocence you WILL find it", but that does not negate the logic of my breakdown of her voting. Yes, in my suspecting of her Rep vote I may be erring on the side of self-importance, but my lynch vote breakdown looks quite good to me.

[Folwren]

Never mind.

[Shastanis Althreduin]

Originally Posted by Folwren

Never mind.

You can, but it would take both your votes to make a difference where Sally is concerned.

[satansaloser2005]

I'm here and vaguely conscious. What can Sally do for you all?

[Folwren]

Originally Posted by satansaloser2005

I'm here and vaguely conscious. What can Sally do for you all?

Forgive your humble...orc....friend...who just doomed you to death...? But only if you're innocent. If you're guilty, don't bother forgiving me.

[satansaloser2005]

Originally Posted by Shastanis Althreduin

You can, but it would take both your votes to make a difference where Sally is concerned.

Yes, dear, but was that what she was asking? I think not.



Shasta is being so bloody single-minded. Why?


ETA: x'd with Foley. Bloody....

[Folwren]

Okedoke...well....I've had an exhausting weekend, and I seriously cannot read straight...plus, I'm supposed to be at my brother's house five minutes ago.

But...even before Phantom told me two or three posts ago that Wilwa's vote for me as Rep was odd, I had decided so myself. I haven't had time to look at her other posts. I have read some of them...and I'm getting a bad feeling about her. And I think there is a possibility that she's linked to Sally.

Which brings me to Sally now. I don't trust her. But I didn't in my other game, either. I don't know her playing style well, but it seems she's MUCH more uptight this game than last. I am also basing some of my opinion off of a couple of posts by Greenie (I can't find them at this moment, but she said at least once today that Sally's posts seem elvish to her) where she said she didn't trust Sally.

That being said, I hate this business. I hate it more than I can really express, but from what LITTLE intuition I have (I say little in caps because I've only been here a grand total of ... less than thirty minutes, probably) I really have a bad feeling for Wilwa and Sally. I think Wilwa is covering Sally, and I think they're both potentially guilty.

So if this turns out bad, I'm sorry. Please don't kill me. It's not really fair.

++Sallyx2++

May the Balrog have mercy on our souls.

Cross posted with everything posted on this new page.

[Shastanis Althreduin]

Alright, that's a double lynch, then, looks like.

Thanks for coming back even though you said you were going to be gone, Foley.

[satansaloser2005]

Mark this. MARK THIS NOW. Notice how Foley didn't even read before voting? At least not thoroughly? If/When Wilwa/Cel turn(s) out to be evil, remember that.

[Folwren]

Originally Posted by satansaloser2005

Mark this. MARK THIS NOW. Notice how Foley didn't even read before voting? At least not thoroughly? If/When Wilwa/Cel turn(s) out to be evil, remember that.

*Flushes hot* I did read. Not thoroughly, no, but how the great blazes did you expect me to read thoroughly? HONESTLY? I didn't do this lightly, and I'm sorry. I really am. I'll be especially sorry if you end up innocent, but Sally, I don't trust you, ahd I haven't, not since the beginning of the game, I haven't.

I'm sorry.

I do have to go, though. I'm almost twenty minutes late.

[the phantom]

IMPORTANT NOTE: Please recall that Fea asked us to remember to use the correct voting format this time around- double signs (++) on BOTH sides of the name you are voting for.

Her example from the Admin thread-

++Fea++

[Shastanis Althreduin]

Here and reading. I've noted several things to comment on, not least of which is Nogrod and his insistence on leaving everything to the Seer. He's mentioned it at least twice now - "Leave Phantom to the Seer! Leave Sally to the Seer!" - and I call shenanigans. Nogrod, you're being absurd.

Will formulate a better post now.

[Nogrod]

Celuien and her massive posting of a total of 8 posts (of which none on D2)

#139 Tells us she’s reading halfway through, IC banter.

#153 Now I see what I was feeling odd about: it feels like she is trying too hard to fit into the IC, to be light-hearted. But she talks reasonably of how dangerous it would be to let elves steer the vote, or basically just let a few to dominate the vote. Interestingly she pauses the thinking for saying there’s nothing odd in tp campaigning for leadership – to then continue why he’s not voting him: “I do want to spread some of the representing vote power around and because I want to get more discussion and voting trails for tomorrow“. She doesn’t want to vote Boro for rep as she fears a Boro – phantom duel and goes for a quieter one – votes Foley for rep.

#154 I don’t actually understand this so let you others explain it to me.
Originally Posted by the phantom

Originally Posted by Celuien

Haha! Or rather, mwhahaha. None of this "good" nonsense. That sounds like elf talk.

(This was followed by tp voting her as a representative)

#191 Comes back (two and half hours later) only to comment on nick-names and signs out promising to pay attention later.



#272 Reports to duty – the similar joking tone I feel is a bit off. Promises to be back after catching up.

#279 Says she doesn’t believe tp is an elf and also thinks that jumping on the early voters just because they voted early is silly. Says she has always been in the “D1’s are annoying”-camp and could have acted likewise. Answers me and Lommy and says it’s more suspicious to suspect someone because of being in a role and says to watch back. Says Izzy, Steve and Wilwa look genuine. Something bothers him with Boro discussing with Mira.

#281 (Answering phantom’s question as to if someone would be ready to lynch Boro) Says Boro has been unsettling to her – but that is more of a gut feeling. Wouldn’t mind voting him. No read on Glirdy.

#293 Votes Boro.


And that's it. She's consistent and I can't see her as that suspicious. At least reading through those few posts made me a bit less suspicious of her. But I'd sure love to see her contribute a bit more. And it is possible her reaction to Lottie & Sally was a planned defence - and if she is in cahoots with tp then phantom's sudden drive to lynch Boro might be understandable (Cel had said earlier she suspects him so it would be easy for her to follow that line of voting). But I think that scenario (the latter one) to be a bit far-fetched.

But like I said, I'm a bit less woried about Celuien now.

Originally Posted by Shasta

I've noted several things to comment on, not least of which is Nogrod and his insistence on leaving everything to the Seer. He's mentioned it at least twice now - "Leave Phantom to the Seer! Leave Sally to the Seer!" - and I call shenanigans. Nogrod, you're being absurd.

Tell me Shasta, why not to wait for the seer and be cool with it? Give me one good reason. And first of all think...

[Shastanis Althreduin]

Nerwen's theory about phorc being the OoUA, offering his help to Lottie, has merit, I think. I was considering him being the OoUA anyway. I do wonder, though, why Phantom would attach himself so early on to Lottie, of all people, if this theory is correct. Unless Lottie slipped hideously early that she was evil and no one but Phantom caught it. Just seems weird.

#447 - Legate's notion about analyzing voting patterns is a good one and well thought-out, I think. However, this sentence -

Originally Posted by Legate

This "review" was actually quite good and helped me to once again think of the situation there better. I must say that Nerwen is right here that indeed the double-vote from both sally and Lottie is not so improbable to have been from two SoE. Still, just the sort of general, well, perhaps probability, makes it easier for me to imagine sally as innocent.

- raises my hackles a bit. It seems very wishy-washy where Sally is concerned. I can't tell yet if he's preparing for Sally to flip innocent or preparing to look good if she flips Elf, but it looks like he's preparing for something here.

Originally Posted by Lommy

The rep pool seems nice, a good mix of people whom I trust (Legate), almost trust (Nog, Foley, Steve) and don't trust (Shasta).

My feelings are so hurt.

Originally Posted by Nogrod

The problem here is that there is also another logical explanation. So let's leave this matter to the seer, honestly.

The Seer can't win this game by themselves. I fail to understand why you continually insist on leaving this-or-that to the Seer, who might have other priorities. The rest of this post (#454) just states the obvious - "We could do with an analysis of Lottie." Nogrod is looking elven to me right now.

Originally Posted by Lommy

Shasta - uses 90% of his energy arguing with tp.

Well, someone needs to drive home the point that, no, you can't have everything your way. Everyone else (except Nerwen) seems too intimidated!

#464 - I don't like how Sally seems to be trying to take credit for the Lottie lynch early in this post. It reads like "Look guys, I thought Lottie was evil just as much as you guys did, honest!"

This point here, though, makes sense to me -
[quote=Sally]Greenie says she voted Nerwen because she is “independent-minded and clever” and says that putting a good Nerwen in charge is a good choice, while putting an evil Nerwen in charge can show us more about her character; either way (re: Nerwen’s alignment) Greenie is sure that voting Nerwen is a good idea. What concerns me here is that this is exactly the reasoning that I gave for Phantom. Greenie has been accusatory of me for my vote, yet hers was for the same reasons (though granted with more “evidence” behind it).[quote]

Greenie, do you have a comment? Oh, I see you answered this very thing in #468. Hmm. This reply makes sense, but I'm not sure if it really has to do with Sally's point.

#469 is more of Nogrod telling everyone "Back off from Phantom and Sally, guys, the Seer will check them, nothing to see here!" Curiouser and curiouser. He'd rather have them checked than lynch either one, and I don't see any real reason for that to be the case. We lynch those who are suspicious - that's how the game is played. Is there some kind of boundary line that I missed, where if someone is too suspicious they should be Seer-dreamt instead of lynched, just to be sure? I'm confused.

Originally Posted by Nogrod

Tell me Shasta, why not to wait for the seer and be cool with it? Give me one good reason. And first of all think...

Since no-lynching is not an option, we have to lynch someone every day. We can't just sit around and ignore people who are acting suspiciously and just take the attitude of "oh, they're suspicious, but we should be absolutely positive before we lynch them" - we're handing our heads to the Elves on a mithril platter if we do. Last I checked, this was not a game of "wait-for-the-Seer" and I don't recall you taking such an attitude in the past.

And stop hinting that you're the Seer. I'm virtually positive you're not. It looks more like you're planning a fake-reveal as an Elf/OoUA.

Edit; X'ed with Phorc and Sally.

[Shastanis Althreduin]

Phantom-

Re (1) - If all this is the case, why did you vote for Legate for representative?