WWLXXI: Something in the Night (Attempt #2)

[Nogrod]

Originally Posted by wilwarin538

I'm starting to think you could both be wolves, and are going at each other so that when one gets lynched the other looks better.

Hold your imagination and look at the arguments.


But it is true what you say, that one would like to see more contributions from Shasta and Lari.

Shasta has the show to rehearse (or something like that) and that's a decent reason for not posting too much - but at this kind of game it could be quite crucial as well. And if he is a wolf... well I'm afraid we can't afford to just check it right now as a mislynch toDay will more or less end the game (unless the wolves don't hit the ranger and s/he manages to save someone).

If he is a wolf and wins I'd say the moral victory is not theirs. And it is not something to blame on Shasta if he is busy, but a question of the overall rl conditions (although one might ask why join a game if one has no time to play?). So I will be disregarding Shasta for toDay at least. Whatever follows.

Lari is a harder case. I don't remember her saying she wouldn't be able to contribute and she has been the most quiet all the time (second least posts thus far after Glirdan who died on D1!). But unlike Shasta, when she posts she has at least tried to say something - but soo carefully it hurts!

I'd think the same would apply to her: I will think her win as a wolf would be morally worthless and thus void in my eyes at least. In this small a game we just can't afford doing away with the submarines first as the numbers are falling so fast.

Please Shasta and Lari, post, play the game if you're in it!

[Shastanis Althreduin]

You're right, Nog, I shouldn't have signed up for this game. But asking for a modkill at this point in the game would doom the innocents, so I'll do my best (I do, however, have rehearsal in an hour and I'm not sure how long it's going to last).

For now, two major points.

1. People who are pushing the whole "The Ranger has GOT to be female" are looking extremely shady to me.

2. I think that Wilwa's backpedaling on the revealing of the Ranger-issue looks fishy, but then I think Inzil is fishy too.

[wilwarin538]

Originally Posted by Shastanis Althreduin

1. People who are pushing the whole "The Ranger has GOT to be female" are looking extremely shady to me.

Why? Sally referred to the Ranger as a she, I see it as likely that she did that so that we'd have an idea of who the Ranger could be, since there was about the same number of guys and girls, without her having to reveal them (since that would put the Ranger in danger). She could have done it so that if a few days went by and she was dead we would have a hint about the Ranger and be able to limit our group of unknowns (or like if a guy-wolf tried to false reveal or something we'd know not to believe them). It just seems quite clearly like something Sally would do. You seem to be the only one who doesn't think so.

I don't know, we could all be wrong of course and she was just messing with us.
But either way I don't find the girls suspicious anyway, even if Sally had never done the whole "she" thing I still would not have looked at them suspiciously.

Backpedaling? I never said I thought the Ranger should reveal, I asked what people thought about the Ranger revealing. Those are two different things.

Anyway, I'm going to go eat some pumpkin pie and watch Jack Bauer. Be back later.

[Inziladun]

Originally Posted by Nogrod

Now wilwa's post asking Sally about her having a wolf was posted at 01.16 and Sally answered 01.18 (three minutes before my post was posted). That post of mine 01.21 was a cross post - with both of them.

All right, Nog. But the problem was it wasn't apparent you'd cross-posted. Surely you see that. It looked as if you'd just been ignoring things, since you didn't note a cross-post at the time.

Originally Posted by Nogrod

Then I went back reading what was said and thought about the implications - and I do actually remember reading wilwa's post from 01.22. (so I had first read the few posts that were posted prior to my 01.21 and thought about them, and only then posted my next one which was finally posted at 01.28)Which I thought was straight to the point. And it was only now I kind of knew Sally had a wolf! So after thinking a while I realised the situation was urgent indeed. And I said this on post that was sent on 01.28 So I was concerned that I might vote the wrong way and decided to wait yet a moment even if it was about 1.30AM and I had an early morning call to see whether Sally would help and stop playing her otherwise nice game with the wolves as the situation was dire enough without the "game" she wished to play. I was thinking about the general situation... the previous Day three people didn't vote, and looking at our numbers there such many non-voters against three wolves would mean that we could be outvoted if just a few of us voted the wrong way (if Sally would reveal only near the DL!). Just look back at how Lottie got lynched! Not with a bang but a whimper.

Therefore I urged her to reveal earlier than later.

And you Inzil should have seen the direness of our situation there.

I'll admit Sally's caginess was causing me some consternation as well, but I'd be willing to let her have things her way, since she had made it clear (to me, at least) that she had a wolf.

Originally Posted by Nogrod

So first you said "not sure" and then claimed you said you were against it (after I had pointed out it would lead to game over) which you weren't.

Sorry, you're grasping at straws here. And I was well aware when I responded to Wilwa that a false lynch would be fatal. As I said, I didn't point it out because Wilwa had just done so.

You do make an impassioned defence, Nog.

[Nogrod]

Originally Posted by Inziladun

I'll admit Sally's caginess was causing me some consternation as well, but I'd be willing to let her have things her way, since she had made it clear (to me, at least) that she had a wolf.

Well I think you miss the point here. Lari had voted for Shasta already and so basically another vote not for the wolf Sally had caught could have led to a situation where the wolves could have run over us with their votes and win. And I needed to get to sleep. It was too risky.

Originally Posted by Inzil

Sorry, you're grasping at straws here. And I was well aware when I responded to Wilwa that a false lynch would be fatal. As I said, I didn't point it out because Wilwa had just done so.

Actually what wilwa said was:

Originally Posted by wilwa

So what do people think of the Ranger coming forward? It would make our pool of suspects smaller, but would probably guarantee her death toNight.

She didn't say the game would be over if the ranger dies! And how come you claim you were on top of the things as an innocent if you answered that post by wilwa by saying that there are pros and cons and that you're not sure which would be the best option - if you claim you knew the game would end if we missed?

Originally Posted by Inzil

You do make an impassioned defence, Nog.

If the dl would be better I'd be easier as I could follow the day through but sadly I need to leave like now and everything that happens after I'm gone is out of my reach; so I feel I need to make my case strongly enough so that we stand a chance of there being toMorrow.

x'd with Shasta and Inzil

[Inziladun]

Originally Posted by Nogrod

Actually what wilwa said was: She didn't say the game would be over if the ranger dies! And how come you claim you were on top of the things as an innocent if you answered that post by wilwa by saying that there are pros and cons and that you're not sure which would be the best option - if you claim you knew the game would end if we missed?

For your benefit, here is Wilwa's post, bolding added to the pertinent part.

Originally Posted by wilwarin538

Who's left:

Nogrod
Inziladun
Shasta
Alonariel
Wilwarin
Lariren

2 are wolves, 1 is the Ranger, then 3 ords. If we don't get a wolf today, then we most likely lose.

So what do people think of the Ranger coming forward? It would make our pool of suspects smaller, but would probably guarantee her death toNight.

And did it occur to you, Nog, that perhaps I wanted to leave it open ended, to see if anyone would latch on and say, 'Yes, Ranger! Come forward!'?

[Nogrod]

Originally Posted by Inziladun

And did it occur to you, Nog, that perhaps I wanted to leave it open ended, to see if anyone would latch on and say, 'Yes, Ranger! Come forward!'?

It took you some time to come up with that explanation Inzil... and don't try to tell me you were just having your nets in the deep water all the time just to watch for reactions the last hours.

And really. If wilwa says "we most likely lose" then you say "I'm not sure about it" - and it takes you this long to actually come up with an explanation... and then you want me to buy it?

Well Shasta is looking quite bad as well. So... drat... looking at the clock...

Why does this game always start to get interesting when I need to go to sleep? The worst deadline ever!

[Nogrod]

Originally Posted by Nogrod

And really. If wilwa says "we most likely lose" then you say "I'm not sure about it" - and it takes you this long to actually come up with an explanation...

I need to add... while in the meantime you try to give us untrue or fabricated replies... and now you wish we should believe that at this point you're finally true whilst earlier you were just... well what? Why didn't you say that already much earlier? Let me guess... You came up with that explanation only now?

[Nogrod]

Sally talked of the ranger as a she. Whatever the status of that claim might be, we should take that into consideration. And Sally didn't give us a name (was wise enough not to).

Now, if the ranger is lynched we lose. It is game over.

If the ranger is killed during the Night we lose before the next Day breaks as well - unless we get a wolf toDay. And if we lynch a female toDay who is not a wolf they have easier task to guess on the ranger the coming Night (as there are less females to choose from). So let us leave them as many females as possible to pick from the coming Night so that there are better chances of them getting it wrong.

So let's lynch a male toDay.

It means either

me
Shasta
Inzil

I know I'm an innocent myself.

I have already said I'm afraid we just can't afford a shot in the dark with trying Shasta. Although now seeing Shasta posting and actually contesting the whole "female-ranger" idea makes me think again... bah, I thought I could get to bed now.

Heh, as soon I started to feel better about wilwa - because of realising her concern about Sally revealing early enough so that the wolves couldn't mess the votes yesterDay - Shasta says wilwa was backpedalling on the ranger-reveal -issue, which is not true - while it could be argued Inzil did that, and Shasta's "weak suspicion" "but then I think Inzil is fishy too" looks very much like a wolf-on-wolf suspicion.

I do think Inzil has been trying to capitulate on the general suspicions on me toDay - the wolves know the situation and just one innocent lynch will give them great chances of winning the game on the coming Night. Also the way he has done that has been outright twisting the facts (check my posts with real evidence) and I do suspect he tried to out our ranger for the death of us innocents, and when caught, tried to lie to get away with it (check my posts for original quotes showing the difference between what he said and what he claimed he said).

Okay. Needs a moment of thought before voting...


EDIT: mentioning this now... X'd with Inzil.

[Shastanis Althreduin]

Right. How do we know Sally didn't say "she" to bluff (or double bluff, or triple bluff) the wolves? Knowing Sally, I don't think we can make any assumptions just because she said "she" instead of "they" or "he". And the fact that this has been the main subject of the day blows my mind. We're not looking for the Ranger, we're looking for the wolves.

[Nogrod]

Originally Posted by Shastanis Althreduin

Right. How do we know Sally didn't say "she" to bluff (or double bluff, or triple bluff) the wolves?

We don't Shasta. We don't know that.

But it is a thing to be considered as it is the only one thing we have about the ranger.

And as someone (wilwa?) said, it is actually believable that she would give us a hint that way limiting the gender of the ranger thus still protecting her as there were many enough females around...

And why are you suddenly thus concerned Shasta?

If we lynch a wolf toDay we (some of us) live toMorrow, but if we don't, it will be in the hands of our ranger, and only her (him?). So let's make it as safe as possible and try to avoid lynching the ranger - and not force her to come forwards to not lynch her as the revealment of the ranger's identity would be the death of her and thus the end of the game.

And if our only clue is that the ranger is a "she" I think it reasonable to follow that principle toDay.

ToMorrow the situation might be different as there is no reason both the remaining wolves should be males in principle.

edit: x'äd with Inzil again...

[Inziladun]

Originally Posted by Nogrod

Sally talked of the ranger as a she. Whatever the status of that claim might be, we should take that into consideration. And Sally didn't give us a name (was wise enough not to).

Now, if the ranger is lynched we lose. It is game over.

If any innocent is lynched, it's likely 'game over'.

Originally Posted by Nogrod

I know I'm an innocent myself.

The same is true of me. Therein lies our problem, Nog.

Originally Posted by Nogrod

I do think Inzil has been trying to capitulate on the general suspicions on me toDay - the wolves know the situation and just one innocent lynch will give them great chances of winning the game on the coming Night. Also the way he has done that has been outright twisting the facts (check my posts with real evidence) and I do suspect he tried to out our ranger for the death of us innocents, and when caught, tried to lie to get away with it (check my posts for original quotes showing the difference between what he said and what he claimed he said).

I'll accept your explantion about your questioning Sally and inducing her to name her dream. But now you're twisting my words about Wilwa's Ranger idea. Let it be so, then.

x/d with Shasta