WWLXX: At the Prison of Ice

[Nogrod]

An add-on to the amendment I made...

If it is suspect A for the hunter who is a wolf then we have no known innocent, but if it is B, then we have one (as A is then not a wolf?).

Am I reading the rules right Legate? The rules suggest there is a hierarchy in the hunter's list...

[Boromir88]

This must be what hell is frozen over. Spare me from it. I'm drained from thinking and fighting.

++Sacrifice Boro

++Lynch Boro

Have your pick.

[Nogrod]

Well that was an interesting move Boro...

Hard to see an innocent doing that. But why on earth don't you make it a fight? You'd have your chances were you a wolf...

If there was a cobbler around I'd bet my inheritance (little that there is) for Boro being one.

[Nogrod]

Oh Boro, I might see that... maybe you try to sacrifice yourself for the other wolf so that we wouldn't have a reveal of two suspects? That way we'd need to pick the last one quite blindly as the chances for the hunter-reveal would go a lot smaller with only one wolf left (only one pick for her).

So would you be that confident about your mate that s/he is so safe from suspicion right now that this gambling is the better deal for you than checking whether the hunter can pick you guys up?

[Boromir88]

Originally Posted by Nogrod

So would you be that confident about your mate that s/he is so safe from suspicion right now that this gambling is the better deal for you than checking whether the hunter can pick you guys up?

I'm doing whatever it takes to prove I'm innocent. Saying I'm innocent won't do it, so I figured throwing my hands up and saying I'm done will. Do whatever you want, you obviously don't need my help, and I can't give it anymore.

[Nogrod]

Heh, one scenario for the hunter to entertain herself with...

Pick anyone you feel as your target A and then Boro as your target B. Then come open and we'll lynch you.

If A is killed by you as a wolf, we'll lynch Boro the next Day and win.

If A is not killed by you but Boro is killed, then the ranger will safeguard A the next Night and we have a known innocent with us tomorrow with a situation of 4-1 (meaning that every innocent knows her/himself + the known innocent = there are two innocents and one wolf for every innocent to choose from).

If we miss it then, it will be two against one on the last Day...

Any ranger-gambles etc. might change the picture of course.

But looking back... as odd... well as reasonable... as it seems... Boro's coming into the open is actually a good move for a wolf. The risk of us getting them both pinned down with hunter's list of two was probably a too heavy weapon... and he realised that?


So should we just lynch / sacrifice Boro and be happy with it or should we think the other scenarios? It's getting late here but I will see if I can come up with other, better scenarios before I go to sleep...


Oh Boro posted...

Originally Posted by Boro

I'm doing whatever it takes to prove I'm innocent. Saying I'm innocent won't do it, so I figured throwing my hands up and saying I'm done will. Do whatever you want, you obviously don't need my help, and I can't give it anymore.

I just can't see what you mean my friend.

- You don't think you "prove" yourself innocent by voting yourself.
- You don't give up if you're innocent.
- You have better self-esteem & understanding of the number of votes left to understand that as an innocent we'd need you.

So sorry. I'm not buying that.

[Nogrod]

Sorry about flooding the thread but this will be the last from me for now...

I think we should just sacrifice Boro and not lynch anyone (and the hunter should stay hidden).

That way we get rid of one wolf (see my earlier post for reasons why it is so).

So on the next Day we have probably 5-1 situation (or in the best case a 6-1), and possibly ranger and hunter able to secure each other as there are two of them while a lonely wolf can't cheat anymore. Or if the last wolf hits the hunter at Night there is a good possibility the hunter takes her/him down as she goes (and there is no threat to innocents if the wolf hits the hunter at Night).

Day or Night, it's the hunter-time now!

The other possible scenario would be that we sacrifice Boro and then lynch the hunter with her two suspects on board... but I guess we would need further guidance from our mod here as to how the rules apply. If Boro is sacrificed does that mean that it is counted as an act that is done before the lynch thus taking away the second suspect from the hunter's list and leaving her only one target? If it is like that we should probably sacrifice the hunter ("first") and lynch Boro so that we might be able to wrestle the known innocent for toMorrow... but it would mean that we'd lose the possible back-up for the joint gifted's reveal toMorrow, it would mean one more lost innocent (or an immediate victory to be sure), it would mean in the worst scenario a serious crippling of the innocent side.


So for the time being I would suggest we just sacrifice Boro and vote for "no lynch". That's a safer way to go offering us the best returns in comparison with the odds we face with other options (which are not bad either - leaving out nightmare scenarios).

I'll be back with fresher thoughts tomorrow and hopefully able to pay heed to your comments as well. I'm not too sure I'm right here - yesterDay kind of looms over my head still - but the way Boro acted screams a wolf to me.

Anyway we do not have an "Ordo-Boro", nor a gifted one. So a wolf or yet one more secret role... but not for the good I'd say.

[satansaloser2005]

Originally Posted by Nogrod

Okay, the first amendment already.

If the hunter gets her suspect A right, we can't know if her suspect B is a wolf or not, so no known innocent there. In case the hunter picks both wrong we have a known innocent on the next Day.

Yes, and that's so horrible because then we're down a wolf. I can see why you'd have a problem with this, as if the hunter has either of their suspects right the worst that can happen is we get a wolf. How horrible!

Originally Posted by Boromir88

This must be what hell is frozen over. Spare me from it. I'm drained from thinking and fighting.

++Sacrifice Boro

++Lynch Boro

Have your pick.

Erm....awkward. Either Boro's a bold wolf or a stupid innocent (terribly sorry, love, but in this case it's true my little clever darling).

I can see this turning out one of two ways.

A: "Oh, my sweet Westley! What have I done?" Boro's innocent and we're certainly down one because the wolves'll jump right no and the rest of us will doubt his intentions and lynch him. A certain disaster.

B: "Are you mad? You were not hired for your brains...." Boro's a very bold wolf who's bluffing and counting on us not wanting to lynch someone who volunteers to be lynched. We can fall for it and lynch someone else or we can lynch him, which gets us a wolf. But I'm not sure Boro!wolf would do this at this stage.

Originally Posted by Boromir88

I'm doing whatever it takes to prove I'm innocent. Saying I'm innocent won't do it, so I figured throwing my hands up and saying I'm done will. Do whatever you want, you obviously don't need my help, and I can't give it anymore.

Yes, but dear, if we have any chance of getting a wolf we should take it. (Assuming the hunter comes out) we go from having no chance of getting a wolf* to taking a chance based on the hunter's list. See my posts before; only a stupid wolf would falsely reveal as the hunter at this point, so if the hunter came out we could take the chance on their list and at the very, very least clear one innocent. I know the odds come Nightfall but I think it's an acceptable risk.

*This is assuming we lynch Boro and he is telling the truth

[Nerwen]

Originally Posted by satansaloser2005

Three scenarios:

Ordo reveals as hunter. We lynch them because they're silly (this is NOT the Day to go for that rash of a plan, not when this can be so perfectly orchestrated) and we get nothing.

You're learning...

Originally Posted by satansaloser2005

Wolf reveals as hunter. We lynch them and we have a wolf.

Hunter reveals as hunter. They tell us their list and we lynch them accordingly, then we'll know either a wolf or an innocent (although keep in mind we could lose an ordo this way along with the hunter) and we'll be in a lot better shape (though granted down a hunter as well).

Of course we'll also learn a lot about people's leanings based on this plan and their adherence to it. We can't lose.

Yes we can. Your plan is a real gamble– it could mean instant victory for the village, but it could also be a disaster. I'm not saying it's not worth considering, though... still trying to sort the possibilities out.

Originally Posted by satansaloser2005

Now we just need our hunter to come out. You know who you are, we do not. Do as you see fit; if there is no reveal toDay I say we agree as much as possible on our top two lynch candidates, lynch (rather sacrifice) one, then use that information to see what to do with the other.

Sally, you seem to be assuming we can choose to lynch someone, then learn the result, then have the sacrifice. Sounds to me like either they're simultaneous, or the sacrifice comes first.

Originally Posted by Nogrod

I'll be back with fresher thoughts tomorrow and hopefully able to pay heed to your comments as well. I'm not too sure I'm right here - yesterDay kind of looms over my head still - but the way Boro acted screams a wolf to me.

Anyway we do not have an "Ordo-Boro", nor a gifted one. So a wolf or yet one more secret role... but not for the good I'd say.

Indeed, I doubt an innocent Boro would self-vote at this point in the game. He should know the numbers are getting to be crucial. I wonder if Legate would tell us whether there's another secret role?

EDIT:X'd with Sally and Morsul.