Tol-in-Gaurhoth Threefold and Six: The Night Guard

[Nerwen]

Originally Posted by Hakon

One thing we also need to think about is part of the safety the wolves gain from killing one a night. Because we know that at least once the wolves have chosen to kill one a night we expect it to always have been their choice. It could happen that we end up guarding a wolf and we just assume that they chose to have one kill that night. It could mean a wolf not getting lynched.

Not worth it. To quote myself at #224 (replying to Nilp):

If they did, they were giving up a kill solely in order to give them a possible advantage in a possible future situation. It can only pay off if we happen to guard a wolf while all four of them are still alive, and maybe not even then.

On that note:

Possible (not necessarily mutually exclusive) reasons for the lack of second kills, in no particular order:

1 Wilwa is a wolf (i.e. the wolves framed Legate to take the heat off her).

2. Nogrod is a wolf. (He was Guarded last Night.)

3. The wolves are trying to "insure" themselves against a possible situation in which Wolf 4 (or the last wolf alive) is Guarded and thus would be revealed by the missing kill. (Suggested by Nilp yesterDay and Hakon toDay.)

4. The wolves are terrified of known innocents and consider it worth giving up their most obvious advantage in order not to create any. (Suggested by Legate and toDay by Zil. Or rather, there are others who agree the wolves might have done this, but I believe only those two consider(ed) it a worthwhile tactic.)

5. The wolves assume that the village will lynch the Guarded person every time there's a missed kill. (See above.)

6. The wolves are playing dumb, to mislead us as to their identity. (Suggested by Wilwa.)

7. On each Night, there was no second kill that would not heavily implicate a pack member. (This is very unlikely, at least as the main reason, but I thought I might as well cover everything.)

3., 4., and 5. are interesting, not because they're terribly good tactics, but because the wolves may think they are.