Werewolf LIII: The Republic

[Feanor of the Peredhil]

Originally Posted by Aganzir

Anyway I want a cup of tea now.

I recommend blueberry rooibos.

[Mithalwen]

Twining's Traditional Afternoon would be my suggestion or maybe Lady Grey...

[Aganzir]

Originally Posted by Feanor of the Peredhil

I recommend blueberry rooibos.

I'm not that much into rooibos - for some reason I always drink it when I'm about to get a cold, and now my mind links it to being sick. But blueberry rooibos sounds rather interesting since I love blueberries.
If I had had Lady Grey, I would probably have taken it, but now I have to do with some strange African tea which is good but tastes a bit like corn flakes.

I am going to review Nerwen's posts now.

[Ilya]

Mmm, thinking of Earl Grey now or Irish Breakfast with milk.

I've started taking notes on morm and I'm reviewing Nerwen again as well, although my segmentation of Lifeboat is gonna come first. Should be back around 7ish. Mmmtea.

Agan, how to noobs usually act, then?

[Boromir88]

As for your team Boro...

I just can't wait for this upcoming week, when all I'm going to hear are the bragging Buckeyes.

Well since we seem to be temporarily adjourning for break, I guess I can go put the coffee on...wish I still had green tea.

Such a miserable day here too.

[Aganzir]

On day 1 Nerwen noted down Nog's vote for Ilya (feels out of character from someone who usually favours known players) and mine for Brinn (wondering what I meant by calling her generally trustworthy). I find Nog's vote understandable in terms of wanting to try new people but I can also understand why Nerwen felt the need to point it out. As for my vote, if someone else had used the same reasons, I would probably have asked as well what they meant by generally trustworthy.

She said the business between Legate, phantom and Boro seemed a bit coreographed (especially phantom & Legate's reversing their opinions of each other), as did the one between phantom, Brinn and Shasta, but I failed to see anything that strange between them. On the other hand, at least wolf-Nerwen is known for grouping up people.
She also found it weird how I became a rep despite posting so little (with which I can agree).
Nerwen thought Gil's confusion looked pretty genuine. I did, too.

Then on to day 2. She speculated a bit about Cab's death - no seer hints so it looks like a mere no trace kill, but on the other hand, the lack of substance could have been used against him later, given his reputation as a sneaky wolf.

She accused Ilya, half-jokingly, because she didn't like the following "say-nothing paragraph":

Originally Posted by Ilya

Anyone about whom general opinions have been form would be advantageous to keep around. And I think given the events of Day 1, reputation, or lack thereof, played into the voting of the reps but not into the lynch votes. Reps turned on constituents, and some constituents turned on their reps. I need to go reread, uhm, everything. But Anna Karenina takes precedent tonight, so I probably won't be around until after class tomorrow, around 4ish.

I think I'm a bit more on Nerwen's side on this one as well. However, it wasn't the most suspicious thing Ilya had said by then, so I don't know why it was just that that caught Nerwen's eye.

Phantom claimed that wolves need to get rid of the seer as fast as possible, but Nerwen replied that it's quite improbable no one would have looked like a seer to the wolves even on day 1, so they didn't go after Cab assuming he was the seer. She asked if the wolves might have thought he was the ranger, trying to lay low. Well Cab's pretty much always lying low, so I don't find it a valid reason for the wolves to assume he had any special role.
Also, how would it have been easy for them to turn up suspicion on Cab just because he's a silent player (and therefore also a silent wolf)?

Both Ilya and Brinn have Nerwen feel a bit uneasy because of their reactions to Cab's death, ie speculating why he was killed (no traces) after it was I guess more or less agreed that he was a no trace kill - she called it deliberate misdirected answering. The question was who would benefit from such a safe kill.
Nerwen had much speculation about Cab's death but I don't think she came up with any names (I might be wrong here - I already closed the tabs I had her previous posts opened in). So therefore her speculations are pretty empty. She also started suspecting Ilya and Brinn a bit because of their speculations.

Then morm started suspecting Nerwen because of her agreeing with (parroting, in morm's words) phantom now that he was generally considered pretty innocent, and because of that ranger episode. Nerwen replied she didn't parrot phantom but agreed with him, and told she really thought there was a ranger. Here's the parroting post morm was talking about. I don't think Nerwen's parroting him there, really. To me it looks more like agreeing and taking the thinking process further, with the quote serving as a topic under which the chain of thought goes, if you understand what I mean. I think that indicates neither guilt nor innocence. Out of curiosity, Nerwen, why did you call morm predictable? Is there an old grudge I'm not aware of?
However this quote made me feel uneasy.

Originally Posted by Nerwen

I am quite insulted that you think I'd try an idiotic wolf-cub ploy like pretending not to know the rules.

Because I think her attack is too fierce given the accusation. Okay, I don't really think Nerwen would pretend not to know the rules. If she's a wolf, the wolves hadn't talked about a ranger (or the lack of it), so she had no reason to think there's none, and in every case I buy her explanation. It's just her defense that bothers me... It's really too strong. Although I can agree morm was a bit provocative when saying Nerwen could try to play it ignorant once that Gil had succeeded in it, too.
But it still looks too fierce.

Nerwen voted Lommy for rep because she thought she's likely innocent and has usually good judgement (ha! What do you mean by usually good judgement?), and because she'd like to see a change of government.

She agreed with Greenie that it makes little sense to give the third vote for someone one doesn't trust (with which I can agree), and promised to go through Nog & Boro's posts if she has time, which she did.
Nothing in their posts jumped out to her and at first they had very little interaction with each other, but she pointed out that packmates might want to do that. She concluded, though, that their quarrel today looked pretty genuine, and Boro made some good points against Nog (which is why Nog's vote for Boro is even more puzzling). She didn't find any good evidence of a link between them.

Okay, that's it.
I think Nerwen doesn't look very suspicious apart from her reaction to morm, which could be that of an innocent as well. So I'm pretty much at a loss now, because at the same time I know she's capable of all sorts of nasty things and I just wouldn't want to stop suspecting her like this, just to be on the safe side.
I'll probably read through this later and see if my mind is any clearer.

edit: xed since my last post

[the phantom]

Tea is a good idea. I've heard that it's harder to find WWs when you're thirsty.

I hope morm's having a good time watching his team. It's a tight game. They trail 14-10, but have the ball inside the ten.

As for your team Boro...

But it's okay, it's just one year. I'm sure MU will rise again.

[Kath]

Ah I'm so sorry for being so late. We changed to Sky internet recently and it just keeps messing us around. I got spectacularly lost this morning thanks to the lack of internet and it's only just clonked back in in the last half an hour. So, hello! And wow to being a Rep. Guess you guys really went for the getting the quiet ones to talk strategy eh? Anyway, I am going to be around now for a few hours but I have a fair amount to catch up on as all I've done is review who the Reps are so far so I'll be quiet for a bit and then I'll be back with some thoughts.

[Kath]

Thoughts on people:

Shasta - I really do think he's a frustrated innocent. The last time I remember him being this cross he turned out to be a good guy and I don't think he's the type to use that as a ploy. I know what people mean about him talking a lot but somehow not getting anything from those posts. It's like . . . he's there but you almost don't remember it. However, I don't think that's a bad thing because there is substance in those posts and that means that if he is killed because a wolf thinks it's safe there is often a lot of information to be gained if you then go back and look at them.

phantom - Noisy! So, so noisy. And I can never fully trust him. Actually even with the full and certain knowledge that he was an innocent I doubt I'd fully trust him! As it is though I find myself not bristling at every comment which is how I usually am. That does make me feel more confident in the fact that he might be innocent.

morm - he's flown under my radar a bit but I suspect that's because he's one of these that makes quite long posts and my currently slightly limited time does force me to skim read a bit so I'm probably just missing the substance that he is putting in there. Ooh, though actually he did say that thing about phantom being overly silly. My feeling on that is that if phantom is playing up he's not anything that matters.

Brinn - now I'm not convinced about Brinn. She's one I really do want to take a close look at.

Ilya - surprisingly another one I haven't got much from. Her name has been bandied about all over the place and she's a presence and yet I don't feel to have any kind of read of her.

Sally - pretty quiet actually. Where are the mad posts we're used to? That's a bit odd I must say.

Nerwen - again another I've not got anything on. This is really quite bad. I knew I'd been rushed but I hadn't realised that I'd missed out whole people!

Gwath - as I recall I feel pretty good about Gwath. Oh maybe not actually, that bit about maybe voting for himself was odd.

Ka - her usual self I think, playing around, which again makes me feel pretty good about her.

Boro - ah Boro. I'm suspicious of him. I'm not sure why, it's a bit like yesterDay where I skimmed the thread and just came to the immediate conclusion that Greenie and Eonwe were wolves. There's no actual reason but still it feels right. My problem with feeling like that about Boro is that I'm just always suspicious of him in the early Days so I'd be inclined to take that conclusion with a pinch of salt.

Lommy - do you know what I'm still alright with her. I think I'm turning into Rune, decide what a person is early on and then just damn well stick with that conclusion til the bitter end! The arguments with her and Agan paint her in a good light I think because she remains pretty calm and if she does react it's usually after pretty intense provocation!

Nog - Now this is a really bizarre thing ... I have no opinion on him, and that's just unheard of with me and Nog. I suspect it's because I think he's innocent and I can't bear to believe that! But there you go.

Legate - ah what to do about Legate? I read one post I think he's innocent, I read the next I think he's guilty. I'm going to have to reserve judgement on him for now.

Agan - she is very, very determined this game. Thing is I do play with Agan a fair amount and yet she always seems slightly separate somehow. I don't have any understanding of her usual style of play. Is this ... well, almost persecution of a person like with Lommy normal with her?

Eonwe - we know my feelings on that, I'm going to run through his posts in a minute and see if I can work out why.

Greenie - see Eonwe!

Rune - seems his usual self at the moment. I'm feeling alright about him.

Right I think I've worked out how I feel about almost everyone. Anyone I said I want to take a closer look at I will be posting that up soon. I'm doing it as I go but there are a LOT of pages to get through!

[Eönwë]

Originally Posted by Kath

Legate - ah what to do about Legate? I read one post I think he's innocent, I read the next I think he's guilty. I'm going to have to reserve judgement on him for now.

Then you read this post and you find out he was lynched yesterDay!

x-ed with this page- forget what I said above.

[Kath]

Yeah yeah Lommy already mentioned that Eonwe.

Anyway:

++EONWE

My mind hasn't changed since my last post. I dislike voting on the basis of a feeling but my suspect list basically goes Eonwe, Greenie and then Gwath but I'm not sure about him.

[Kath]

Brinniel:

1: Had some really good ideas about how many Reps there ought to be in relation to the number of villagers.

2: Mentions that Shasta mentioned her a lot. Hmm not sure about that. I mean it's playful but I could see Brinn being a bold enough wolf to bring herself into the limelight a bit.

3: Hmm, talked about who should be a Rep 'someone between loud and quiet'. Makes sense, it's who I've been going for each Day. This post strikes me as really quite innocent actually.

4: Seems quite surprised about becoming Rep. I can understand the feeling! Looks at those who voted for her - well not so much looks at as wonders about and comes to no conclusion.

5: Choosing between Shasta and Agan.

6: Goes for Agan because she wants more Reps than less. It's what she said at the beginning of the Day which does show consistency and that's generally good with her.

7: Explained why she voted for Agan, seems pretty sensible to me.



Ilya:

1: Good points on the weights the Reps have, it's an important idea that I suddenly remembered yesterDay right before I was about to vote for Lommy. I don't think we should give any one Rep too much power.

2: Pretty blase about Day 1, but planning to get serious. Kinda stating the obvious.

3: Bit of a silly list followed by an inconclusive statement.

4; Votes Boro with reasonable, er, reasoning!


Eonwe:

1: Doesn't really say anything, except says Shasta might be a Rep but doesn't say whether that's a good thing or not.

Around 4: Because they're all nothing-y. There's no substance. May be because he was reading through the thread and then just commenting on occasion.

5: Then he votes Greenie. If my suspicion that they're both wolves pans out then this is a very, very bold move ... I wouldn't put it past them. The reasoning behind the vote is odd 'I agree with her here, disagree on this, whatever I'll vote her'.


Greenie:

1: Well I agree with her about the leadership thing. That DW game did get boring. Again it's a fair point about not leaving opinions until the last minute but it does seem slightly stating the obvious.

2: A list ... and to be honest the conclusions seems too sure. Maybe that's what grabbed my attention, everything she says seems very certain at a time when no one should be!

3: And that's it. A vote for Brinn. There is good reasoning behind it and yet it still seems plucked out of thin air as she only mentioned Brinn the post before in a bit of a throwaway nature.

4: Mm big long post, seems like sensible posts. Damn, it really is just a feeling with her I think, I am not going to find any evidence to support my thinking on this.

I was going to look at Nerwen but upon finding her first proper post once her net connection was back up I realised that actually I think she's pretty innocent.

Well I've not finished but my battery is beginning to die and I need to be in bed within half an hour so I'm going to bring this to a close. From this readthrough I'm thinking that Brinn is looking innocent, Ilya is too. As for Greenie and Eonwe I am not clear headed enough right now to look at them with an impartial eye. Even as I read their posts I'm aware that I'm biased against them and that's a terrible way to run an analysis. That said it's Eonwe I'm more suspicious of and I think he's going to get my vote toDay.

[Eönwë]

Well then, j'ai retourné.

My post was longer but now I'll just have t do it, in a short period of time and at great expense (35546 wight-pounds, that's 71092 wight-bucks for you Americans).


--------------

Ok, now to the main part of the post. Why did some reps with very little posts get picked and who picked them?

Phantom obviosuly doesn't count, as he is phantom and posts more than anyone else. He has the village in the palm of his hand. Of course, even he is in the hands of the Modesses.
Boro posts 26 posts, so I won't focus on him.
Nogrod had 15 posts, but was definately still a large presence.
Legate posted 17 posts and was definately not a submarine.

Ilya made 4 posts then. But she is new, so no-one knows how she plays werewolf it's okay to give her a chance to see what she can do, what sort of stuff she's made of. She also seemed pretty innocent.
It's these next ones that worry me.

Brinniel makes 11 posts. Almost all her posts are one liners. In one she comments on the discussion of restriction of reps, and she has one other substantial post. You can see her posts here.

But let's see what the people who voted for her said:

Aganzir votes on general principles. She says she votes Brinn because Brinn probably won't get many votes, and Agan finds her trustworthy most of the time (as well as sometimes suspicious). She then goes on to say that she wants to spread out executive power.

My guess is that she hopes that Brinn turns out to be innocent, and then if she is then she can be a voice of reason. So, it is faith and hope in Brinn's innocence. When she voted, Brnin, had only made 4 posts. The first is connected with discussing how mant reps there should be. Next there are two one liners and a post count. How is that enough to decide whether she should be a rep? I'm not saying that there's anything wrong with anything about Brinn, what I'm saying is she didn't really give much information. She didn't say what she thought of anyone, and those posts aren't really enough (in my mind anyway) to see whether she's innocent or not. These are her posts if you're interested:

Greenie votes next, saying that she finds Brinn sensible, innocent, ans knows she will now become a rep because of the vote.

Now Greenie has given us a list, and said that she likes Brinn and votes for her. She is one of the players she agrees with and likes, and at least this way she is sure to get someone she wants to be a represntative. There is still the element of hope, though.


Next up: Aganzir. She gives two posts and goes away. They don't contain anything really substantial except a vote and a comment on her not being around at the deadline. It seems a consequence of RL that she posted less than normal, so I'n not blaming her. Here are her posts: Post 1 and Post 2. So who voted her then...

Shasta votes, almost out of the blue, and doesn't give a good reason (or any, for that matter).

I don't really know what to think about this, except that he's probably just voting based on past experiences.

Brinn votes, saying that she wants to spread out votes. Understandable.



Well, this whole thing has shown me that a lot of hope and faith in the players was involved in these votes, but then again, that is sort of the idea. If we were certain of everyone's roles it just wouldn't be as fun. It has also made me much less suspicious of the voters of these two, and it seems I under-estimated the number of peoples' posts (and at first I forgot that the Deadline crossed into the next day for me.



Ok, well I'll leave you for now. I'd better catch up on all the posts I missed while writing this.