Tol-in-Gaurhoth L: Battle of the Fandoms

[Nogrod]

What???

Sorry ranger for my lack of faith yesterDay.

I'm going to be eager to hear just what happened...

[Nogrod]

Or then our wolf just failed to send a kill in the first place. That has happened as well.

Sadly I was so confident of dying this Night that I have piled all the work to this evening & tomorrow morning spending time with Lommy & Greenie and overlooking the work...

But I will post something in a few hours before going to sleep and I try to come in at some stage tomorrow (the end of the Day).


Just at the moment I'm still leaning towards Nerwen or Fëa but I'm afraid things will need to be looked at anew now so I will be open to new ideas as well.

[Shastanis Althreduin]

That's weird. It doesn't say anyone was protected, so I'm not sure if the wolf attacked and was rebuffed by the Ranger, or the wolf simply didn't kill. Which... doesn't make any sense; the wolf needs every kill s/he can get.

[Macalaure]

Yay for the ranger! When Nilp died, I was sure that Nogrod had been protected instead and would be dead toDay. Or did the wolf decide to attack Shasta? I'm really curious to see the ranger and wolf picks. There's a mind duel going on below the surface and we only see the outcome.

Of course, it's possible that the kill was simply missed, but given that both ranger and wolf only had few sensible choices, I don't think so.

I foresee a rather slow and frustrating day. It seems like we already discussed everything twice yesterday and now the only news is McCaber's innocence.

I'm quite curious to see what Boro thinks now.

[Nogrod]

Originally Posted by Macalaure

I foresee a rather slow and frustrating day. It seems like we already discussed everything twice yesterday and now the only news is McCaber's innocence.

I'm afraid that description is an apt one but it's up to us how this Day will turn out. But the beginning looks pretty bad... I just laid my papers to the table and came to see what had happened only to find just two posts made in three hours...

I'll be in shortly anyway even if you others are not...

[Isabellkya]

Fea -> Nerwen
Izz -> Nerwen
Boro -> Caber
Nog -> Caber
Mac -> Caber
Mith -> Caber
Nerwen -> Caber


Vote tally from yesterDay.
I just got home from work early and am going to have a late lunch.
Then I will be back.

[Nogrod]

Okay. Here are the remaining unknowns. One of them is a wolf.

Nerwen
Feanor of the Peredhil
Boromir88
Mithalwen
Isabellkya
Macalaure

There are eight of us toDay so without any further ranger-saves / wolf-blunders
we'll have three Days to solve it (this one included). So: we can lynch three people and the wolf will meanwhile bring down two, narrowing the choices at the same time.

We should be able to do this.

The basic situation as I see it is the following...

Nerwen: A lot has been talked of her voting Boro Day after Day in the last instant throwing her votes away. It still is something I'm pretty uneasy about combined with her almost total silence & detachement from Sally whom everyone discussed (except the light defence of her - which she denied yesterDay). Would fit the picture of wolf-team trying to keep it up together.

Fëa: Has been doing everything but actually taking stances or getting involved. Voted two Days for Boro just for the fun of it (it seems) and has then voted very safely going with the flow (voted for a cobbler though*). Many times her discussions seem more like diversions than actually trying to do something (like yesterDay). Also hasn't suspected too many others (for not calling the retaliatory votes?). So a bored ordo or a methodical wolf? Fits the idea of a team-wolves.

Boro: Very much the motor here. First the Lal-crusade then the McCaber one. Sally's vote on Day1 still holds me from suspecting him. If they were that cunning they deserve to win. Boro being a wolf is a bit too far-fetched in light of the voting-record. But it's possible of course...

Mith: If Mith is a wolf she should have made a WoW on Day1 - the one which got CoD lynched in the end. It's possible Mith made it but somehow I don't just believe it. She has been a bit nervous at times though... just to make a notice of it.

Isabellkya: With Sally trying to save CoD quite openly also Izzie's first Day vote looks good. Sadly her record after that has not been so flashing - and I don't mean the actual votes but the reasons behind them or the easiness with which they have been made many times. Hard to say...

Macalaure: He has an astoninshing record of lynching two wolves (and a cobbler although I wouldn't count on that too heavily; look at *). Should be the master goodie and worth trust. And I'm thinking he probably is. But things that bug me a bit are that a) he has been so nice and unsuspective of me consistently through the game: it is a real turn-around b) he has practically saved me from the gallows two times and I should be indebted to him - like I am - but is it staged? c) he has been consistently explaining in different analysis how he could have been seen as having lupine motives. It's very hard for me to see the assuredness with which Mac makes a) and b) and gets his votes right...


So the result? Anyone could be the wolf but only one is.

At the moment I'd say Boro and Mith are the least suspicious because of the voting on Day1.

Izzy and Mac are in the middle as there are puzzling things with both.

Nerwen and Fëa still top my list because they would fit with the view of a wolf-pack trying to play it together rather than killing each other off and trying to make it alone against a big village.


A short postscript. As her departing words Sally says:

"Avenge my foul and most unnatural murder." And I say this to....

....My lovely wolf partner.

Now I see this has kind of kept up my idea that the wolves were having some team spirit even if CoD died early. It was even more the way Sally behaved in general but that quote kind of helped to keep that interpretation (and therefore I have been reluctant to believe in those WoW votes too much). Now I have just started thinking whether there was a conscious misleading irony there? So the other wolf was anything but a "lovely partner" and therefore the irony? Although it has to be kept in mind that she posted this in a hurry as it came one minute after her last post (on overtime) where she realised she was dead.


*Unlike Mac (in his vote-analysis from yesterDay), I think that someone voting for cobbler doesn't make that person or the vote unsuspicious. It's perfectly possible a wolf votes a cobbler; first of all because s/he doesn't exactly know who's the cobbler but secondly s/he might also vote for the one s/he thinks is the cobbler - it could even be smart at times when trust is what you need and loking at Mac's reaction it might work...

[Feanor of the Peredhil]

Originally Posted by Nogrod

Fëa: Has been doing everything but actually taking stances or getting involved. Voted two Days for Boro just for the fun of it (it seems) and has then voted very safely going with the flow (voted for a cobbler though*). Many times her discussions seem more like diversions than actually trying to do something (like yesterDay). Also hasn't suspected too many others (for not calling the retaliatory votes?). So a bored ordo or a methodical wolf? Fits the idea of a team-wolves.

Bored busy ordo. Sadly. Who just picked up a cold from germy undergrads. Blah. Gonna go eat and do some homework and pass out.