Tol-in-Gaurhoth XLVII: Dueling Wizards Werewolf II

[Legate of Amon Lanc]

And just a minor note on my participation toDay. I will be around for about an hour for now and try to keep up-to-date. Then I should be away and get back about three hours before the DL. I hope it's gonna be readable (i.e. possible to read until the DL). Hmm... I would like to look at Brinn's posts maybe... all right, whatever.

[Cailín]

Aye, I know that there's probably not a lot to gain from looking at Volo and Kitanna's posts. I had thought that it might be favourable to Aganzir and Mormegil but then I realised the wolves probably won't be a cohesive team.

This Roa/phantom spat seems more than likely two proud ordos going at it. Everyone try not to get too focused on that.

Lhuna makes a fair bit of sense to me. Clever girl, always proud of her...

[Gwathagor]

Originally Posted by Cailín

This Roa/phantom spat seems more than likely two proud ordos going at it. Everyone try not to get too focused on that.

Really? I'm fairly certain that one of them has to be a wolf...I just haven't decided which one.

[Cailín]

Originally Posted by Gwathagor

Really? I'm fairly certain that one of them has to be a wolf...I just haven't decided which one.

Are you for real, Gwathagor? What makes it certain that one has to be a wolf? The fact that they are arguing? That you can't decide whose side you are on, yet whoever ends up less persuasive to you is a wolf, is really quite odd reasoning.

[A Little Green]

Huh. It took me well past an hour to read through toDay's posts alone.

First of all, the phantom irritates me. He seems to play for himself and not for the village (or the wolves, for that matter). I, like many others, don't like the way he draws attention to himself. The thing is, I have no idea what he might be. One possibility is that he applied to be a wizard but didn't get the role, and now is just frustrated and therefore acts in his egoistic manner. One thing above others troubles me in him, and that's the fact that he keeps threatening people. The Lhuna thing I could have passed, but consider this one:

Originally Posted by tp

If you want to continue suspecting me, Roa, go ahead, but please let this particular issue go. I literally find it insulting that someone would think I would make a decision like that- pass up several nights of free kills for a completely unnecessary stunt. So help me but if you continue on this I might just try and get you lynched despite the fact that I think you're probably innocent.

Now what the heck is this about? "If you go on suspecting me, I'll have you lynched even though I think you are innocent!" ?

Other than that, I don't like the casting of random or unreasoned votes yesterDay and not explaining them. I'd still like an explanation from Gwath as I voted him yesterDay because of his suspicious behaviour, a great part of which was his completely unreasoned vote.

Roa puzzles me. I think she's been speaking very much sense in her earlier posts toDay (especially 314 and 319), but I'm slightly worried about her concentrating on one person only.

I'll be back later, I've got to go now - reading through the thread took me much more time than I anticipated.


EDIT: x-ed with Lhuna, Cailín and Brinn

[Legate of Amon Lanc]

BRINNIEL YESTERDAY (sounds like a newspaper title):

#18
Some starting banter, quite usual. Only, I want to point out - already here starts some pattern which follows Brinn all the game. Things like "ooh my head hurts of all those possibilities what can happen overnight". "Ooh thanks Roa for pointing it out". "Ooh I am so nice and confused". The question is - and I can't answer it now - whether it's innocentish behavior for her or not.

#49
Says quite plainly "so we know there AREN'T connections between the wolves", however finishing the sentence with more vague "as they probably don't know of each other". Then she says we should look for connection between EW and the Wolves (how, may I ask?).

Otherwise, makes sense... this is just to question.

#170
Some problem with Nerwen who kind of accused her... mentions some people, more or less saying thigs I believe logical... mentioning both Volo (that his slip "we wolves" has no value) and Kitanna (saying to think her innocentish). This itself, particularly in this game, does not mean anything...

Only, kind of odd is her excusing of morm's vote for herself, or how it should be said. "He voted me, but I can understand him..." Hmph.

Already mentions Aganzir as one she does not like the most; in the end she will indeed vote for her.

#176
Worries about spreading the voting. Ha, ha, ha...

#195
Continues going through her opinions on different people. Seems undecisive still, somewhat.

#211
Mentions Aganzir as possibility for an EW, but (rightfully, I think) says this is no time to discuss on Wizards (it was short before DL); mentions bandwagons as dangerous, is particularly worried about Nerwen bandwagon appearing out of the blue.

#222
Votes Aganzir.

#232
Wonders about my "to vote or not to vote"... Understandable.

#235
Replies to Dury who asked her why all of sudden vote Aganzir, by saying she wanted to vote her before, which is true.

BRINNIEL TODAY (this sounds like a newspaper name):

#245
Voting list...

Doesn't like bandwagons... thinks Volo and Kitanna were killed for not being suspicious...

#275
This is where it actually starts to seem a little weird.

Originally Posted by Brinniel

I already mentioned my thoughts on Cailin and I do think she's a bit suspicious. And it doesn't help now that Nerwen's been proven innocent.

It doesn't help, but it should not make it worse as well - it you said yesterday that the wolves don't know each other, so they should have as much chance to lynch an innocent as the ordos do, not?

#300
That thing with Volo I mentioned above... Though after I read through all, it does not look THAT bad... I don't know. It may be that Brinn just found a nice formulation on which grounds to suspect Aganzir, what more, to base it on the thoughts of a known Seer... but... then, would a Wolf act like that? Shielding herself with a Seer? Seeriously? Isn't it kinda too... obvious? Hm. Rationally, I am inclined to think this less sinister than I thought at first. Though on the basis of the feelings, there's still something in the post which does not sit well with me.

Besides that, in her posts she mentions votes she does think suspicious or odd, nothing that much strange on that.

#324
Replies to Durelin... who apparently keeps questioning her (this is for the second time! Cf. above the thing about Brinn's vote). This question is concerning her quote about Volo, more or less the thing I said about that. Brinn replies in the way I would expect, and that is normal. Then talks to Roa not to focus solely on phantom...

#326
Thoughts on Roa-phantom debate. Again, the "thanks Roa..." thing I mentioned before. Saying what she doesn't like about tp. And then, asking if the EW could not instruct the Wolves not to vote, which she immediately discards.

#328
Mentions watching the phantom-Roa thing.

All in all, Brinn:

1) Seems indecisive yesterDay, but more confident toDay.
2) Does not look as bad as I thought. The things are just minor and the only ones.
3) Otherwise, she looks reasonable and I can relate to, or at least understand lot of what she has to say.
4) I am letting her down on my suspicious list.

EDIT: x-ed since my last post

[Legate of Amon Lanc]

Originally Posted by Brinniel

Funny you say that 'lil bro as your post is rather lengthy itself...

Hey, I already apologized for that, but, like I said, it's one post which sums up all the lengthy posts before me

Originally Posted by Brinn

So, suddenly being nice equals wolf?

No, but trying to appear too nice could. Which is what I meant by it.

But when I already have you here, I see you again mentioned the thing that the wolves probably don't know each other in your last post - I would like you to answer then my question I outlined while going through your posts: concerning the only one of your posts I quoted, #275. So what did you think back then? If the wolves don't know each other, is there any difference if the one who voted Nerwen was a Wolf or not?

LG... seems to go with the usual patterns of things, sort of "going with the crowd". In fact all she says has been here before... which of course in a village like this is not to wonder... but I would like to see more of her (words which bear great danger, especially in this situation!).

[Brinniel]

phantom, what are you doing still up? ...Or rather...were (you're last post was sometime ago, so I'm sure you're in bed now). But still you last posted after 3am (and that's my time). Wait a minute...what am I doing still up? It's almost 5am. Curse you WW!!

Originally Posted by Legate

Says quite plainly "so we know there AREN'T connections between the wolves", however finishing the sentence with more vague "as they probably don't know of each other". Then she says we should look for connection between EW and the Wolves (how, may I ask?).

I think I already answered this in that same post, but anyway... We look for a connection between wolves and the EW by lynching a wolf, then analysing reasons why an EW would scry that player and who that possibly could be. That's the best way I can think of doing it...other than by suspicious behaviour.

Originally Posted by Legate

It doesn't help, but it should not make it worse as well - it you said yesterday that the wolves don't know each other, so they should have as much chance to lynch an innocent as the ordos do, not?

You're right...I wasn't thinking about that when I wrote it. My bad.

Originally Posted by Aganzir

I know I'm probably contradicting myself now, but his vote is one of those easy, suspicious things a wolf would love to accuse of *coughBrinncough*

Huh, why me? And you are talking about Legate, right?

It's obviously very late so I should get to bed...

Some last quick thoughts:

I still find Aganzir suspicious..

YesterDay I thought Cailin was suspicious, but I honestly haven't looked too much at toDay's posts.

I'm still baffled by the Roa/phantom row...

People I want to take a closer look at tomorrow: Mac, Legate, Durelin, Cailin. Of course that can change seeing as their will be most certainly a large flood of posts by the time I return.

I would like to see the people who vote randomly or bandwagoned with little or no explanation explain themselves...

I think that's all for now. I'll try to get up a little earlier tomorrow, but no guarantee...I just can't wake up to my alarm anymore.

[Macalaure]

3 new pages already?? There's not way I can read all that with due diligence.

The death of Volo is tragic, but at least he can be replaced and his dreams aren't lost. Why the evil team picked Kitanna is beyond me. I was thinking she'd be a good candidate to be added to the evil team last Night.

The Nerwen bandwaggon yesterDay was ridiculous and deserves some special attention - later, along with thoughts on Volo.

Originally Posted by Roa

Also, on the point of the deaths of Volo and Kitanna- it is more likely that they were killed because the EW believed them likely scries by the GW, and she picked correctly for one of them.

Maybe. However, killing gifteds has only limited effect in this stage of the game. Unless the evil team is incredibly lucky and gets at least two with their three opportunities, a suspected gifted is merely replaced by one they don't know about. The only benefit is that it's uncomfortable to the GW to perpetually change his team, and that the baddies might find clues about other gifteds from the dead one's posts. If I was evil, I would keep suspected gifteds around, because they're easier to kill off after the duel, when they cannot be replaced anymore, than unsuspected ones.

Originally Posted by Durelin

I am almost positive Eonwe has played before.

Eonwe has, Eönwë hasn't.


Now, Lhuna...

Originally Posted by Mac

This suspicion makes me quite suspicious of him. It's too...stretchy.

This suspicion makes me quite suspicious of her. It's too...vague.

Seriously, you say I'm in your red zone etc., but you don't say how what I said led you to put me there. You only give a quote and label it suspicious without any further explanation. Be plainer, please. The only thing I did yesterday that I'm aware of that it could see as suspicious was that I overdid the questioning of Legate. Other than that, your thought process stumps me.

I also don't like your comment on Eönwë. It's everybody's right to dislike RPGy posts, but to suspect somebody for a joking first post goes too far, especially since we're talking about his first game here.

Originally Posted by Legate

People, it's nice to read, but post at least shorter posts

I'm sorry, but this has to be the quote of the Day.

I would like to add that I skipped the entire argument between Roa and tp, considering it utterly pointless.

[Lhunardawen]

I'm such a weak-willed wimp. So much for goodbye.

Okay, so why do I find Mac suspicious?

First of all, and this really gets to me, you said you wouldn't be suspicious of anyone who agreed with Roa, with whom you disagreed. And when I re-read yesterDay's posts you did quite the opposite. Really, that's quite unfair, suspecting people just because you disagree with them.

That quoted post involving Leggie stands out because it gives me the strong feeling of you trying to get into someone's good side (by thanking him for agreeing with you and offering apologies for disagreeing with him).

And three, which will be the most nonsensical of all to you, I think you're a wonderful wolf choice. If it flatters you any, which might be a bit of consolation. That might be random, but I kind of trust to thinking like the EW to help me decide who I think are wolvish, even if I wouldn't go so far as to post a list.

I know that with more than a score of people in this game I could pick just anyone for my vote (and I had a suspicion list), but you were the one who stood out most to me for some reason. It's partly gut feel. Can never do without it.

Anyway, I promised I will be getting off the computer, and so I will. Sadly, this is the last you will hear from me toDay. Stupid timezones (I miss saying that).

[Lhunardawen]

Okay, now my head aches. And you just lynched our healer yesterDay. Thanks a lot, guys. She hasn't even taught me how to heal headaches yet.

Maybe getting off the computer will help. But before I leave:

++MACALAURE

About the phantom-Roa row, heaven forbid we're looking at an EW and a wolf going at each other as planned! Because Roa, I deeply appreciate all your input as the former EW, but I wouldn't put it past you to be offering your thoughts to us and doing completely different things. You can pull that off. And you did do some serious misinterpretation of some of the phantom's posts.

But right now I'm quite convinced that you're both innocent, just both unfortunately having strong personalities. Now it's about time the village turns its eyes elsewhere.

[Legate of Amon Lanc]

Hm hm hmm... All right folks, like I said, I am going now... and will be back some three hours before DL. I hope not longer! In any case, see you before the DL.

Good luck to the good side... and whoever is on that side at the moment. Stay sharp!

[Gwathagor]

Originally Posted by A Little Green

Other than that, I don't like the casting of random or unreasoned votes yesterDay and not explaining them. I'd still like an explanation from Gwath as I voted him yesterDay because of his suspicious behaviour, a great part of which was his completely unreasoned vote.

Sorry. I voted for sally for the suspicions outlined in my first post toDay, basiucally because her posting style yesterDay seemed markedly subdued from her usual craziness, and almost compromising in places. YesterDay, mind you. She doesn't seem to be doing it toDay.

[Gwathagor]

Man! Ok, I have to vote within the next 40 minutes...

[Gwathagor]

I would like to vote for either tp or Roa. But I can't decide which one is the wolf, so I am going to hold off casting judgement regarding that particular brawl until tomorrow.

Eonwe's vote against tp yesterDay still looks suspicious, but as has been pointed out, he is new. So he gets another day from me as well.

sally has ceased behaving oddly, so I can't justify voting against her. Darn.

So:

++Lalaith

I have to go do the dishes, but here's my explanation: her friendly tone looks to me like a facade which is betrayed by the unhelpful nature of her posts. I'll elaborate later if I have time.....

[Shastanis Althreduin]

Phantom worries me today, moreso than yesterday. I shan't go into why; seems to me more than enough attention has been paid his way today.

To others that seem odd to be are Mac and Legate, at the moment. Now, I've never been good at dredging up a whole page-ful of quotes to respond to, but I'll do my best. (Legate will probably end up just me being vain... )

[Rikae]

Less threatening? Have I lost my touch?
I'll lynch you all!

Hmph.

Anyway, I went and looked at the list and all I can say is, there are too many people in this village flying under the radar already. Most of these people, I can't form any impression of at all, because they are posting too little and/or too blandly - which, to me, suggests the majority of our baddies lurk among them.

A Little Green, Lalaith, Kath, McCaber, THE Ka, Celuien... others that escape me at the moment - oh yes, even Lommy now, who's usually in the spotlight to some extent - are all slipping my mind in this game, and as slippery as my mind may be, that's still bugging me. Gwath's vote for Lalaith looks kind of random, but I can understand it. Still, of that list, I find the quietness of Lommy and Greenie most worrying.

EDIT: Crossed with Shasta, who is also slippery.

[Durelin]

Gwath's 'devotion' seems half-hearted (I think it was Rikae who said he and Sally seemed more devoted to this game than usual?).

A couple of the forgotten...

Lalaith is creepy along with Cailin. There's a nasty pair...

morm is morm.

Oh yeah, sally... Yeah. Might as well be a wolf.

Ohhh, there are two Eonwe's! (Wayyy too lazy to do accent marks.)

Wow, totally forgot Shasta and Celuien. Hmm...

Need to go take a shower (it's noon here...hah).

Edit: Crossed with Shasta and Rikae.

Oh don't worry, Rikae...I'm sure you'll become more and more of a looming threat in the shadows the longer you happen to survive...

[A Little Green]

Okay, I'm here to post a little postie before being off to work a little. The thing is, I have very little to say. I don't have a clue about anything and I'm getting frustrated. Gwath looks better toDay than he did yesterDay. As to who looks bad... no one and everyone.

Originally Posted by Dury

However...I can see Roa EW throwing phantom-wolf to the "lambs"... Yes, she could be the EW again, lucky her.

I agree that it looks like a possible scenario, except that didn't Roa do something very like that in her last game as EW? I don't know whether she'd do the same in this one...

Bah. I'm really much too frustrated at the moment. I guess I need to think a little and come back with substance (hopefully).

What comes to Lommy being quiet, well, she studied for some hours, then went off to see her friends, and is going to a concert in the evening. She'll be back well before the DL, I think..


EDIT: x-ed since Rikae

[Kath]

Day 1, page 1:

Volo - I think it's been decided now that the Seer didn't get a dream on Night 1 which does mean I don't have to search for clues. From his first post I can see little in the way of clues that he's the Seer at all.

Shasta - IC. Finally something of substance even if it is a rule clarification. From what I recall of the last game I think this is right, that EW and wolves communicate through the mod, but that doesn't hamper communication in any way if the EW wants it.

Agan - IC.

Kitanna - IC.

Ka - IC. Post 35, would you mind re-explaining it as I don't really get what you meant. It looks interesting but I can't quite figure it out. Oh! Ignore that, you do explain. Again there I'm taking the view that if you've chosen wolves you think they're going to be good and so you don't really need to control them in that way.

Roa - IC. Takes the complete opposite end of the stick to phantom, saying we must get wolves. Yes true, but pegging the EW would be fantastic. I think they're both arguing for the same thing just from opposing views. Argues that we do need to catch wolves. Claims phantom is deliberately giving out false information which I don't think is the case. Gets that the EW is important but thinks focusing on the wolves is more effective.

phantom - a lot of statistics. Said that we need to find a way to rank the likelihood of those who might be the EW, yet much of his argument with Roa toDay revolved around that fact that this wasn't done. This may be due to those two concentrating on every little mention by the other and maybe we should come back to this. Cailin tried it as I recall, but got pretty much everyone down as evil! We might have to wait til we've had some more information for that to be worthwhile though. To be fair to Roa I don't like how he downplays the serious nature of the wolves. I think it imperative that we aim to find any evil roles, whether they be found through connections (unlikely) or other methods. Has a point about not discussing possible werewolf tactics, in fact doing that generally gets you suspected.

Brinn - a little over the top with 'how much does my head hurt' comments. It's a bit 'oh poor me' and Brinn isn't usually like that. But then, this game is hell on your head.

Durelin - IC.

Sally - IC. Interesting idea that the EW might ask their wolves to play differently but I think it unlikely. The EW set out a list of wolves, so people they thought would be able to pull it off in this game, therefore whichever of those people ended up as wolves the EW shouldn't need their playing style to be different.

Lalaith - IC, though a mention of Roa and phantom's argument.

morm - agrees with phantom that the EW is the key but as he is also trying to figure out who might be wolvish or not (phantom in this case) he seems to take more of a midpoint between Roa and phantom. Thinks Brinn suspicious.

[Kath]

Hmm, and just a note as I've looked at the latest posts, Rikae has a very good point about Lommy. I don't see floodposting, flipflopping and general presence. Definitely something to look at.

[Kath]

Day 1, page 2:

Roa - good point about the EW not wanting to share information.

Lhuna - agrees with Roa about looking for wolves rather than wizards (and why does that remind me of Horcruxes or Hallows? ) but also agrees with phantom that it will be tough.

Durelin - points out that wolves can slip up of their own accord.

Gwath - agrees with phantom that it's the EW that needs to be focused on.

Brinn - good point that looking for connections is possible because the wolves and the EW know each other. Actually this post settles the Roa/phantom argument for me, if only they agreed.

Izzy - basically what Brinn just said.

Cailin - repeats above and does what phantom wanted, tried to work out who might be an EW. Oh, no it was a list of wolves not wizards.

Mac - good point that wolves can be sacrificed because the EW can always make more and that we should simply lynch those who appear evil. Looks at Roa for a comment, some suspicion of Shasta too. Good point about Greenie just pointing out Volo's potential slip and then leaving the outcome to everyone else.

Greenie - suspects phantom some, especially for his attention-grabbing ways.

Volo - ooh very good point about no one using actual names in Night discussions just in case, which ends with him saying it's the EW we need to focus on. Different idea to everyone else, that the GW is better with wolves and we're better with the EW. It's certainly an idea, I'm not familiar enough with the rules to know if this is really right. Someone give me a simple answer here, how do the good guys win? If we lynch the EW what happens? If the GW scries the EW what happens? I admit it, I didn't read the new rules, I'm going on what I recall from the last game.

Rikae - thinks Mac is overreacting a bit and that Roa was right to face phantom though she doesn't think him suspicious. Does think morm a little suspicious though.

morm - voted Brinn on a hunch, no explanation.

Kitanna - repeats a lot of what has gone before conclusion wise, also says not to rely on lists because they're as much use to the EW as the rest of us.

Lommy - sides with Roa about finding the wolves. Agrees with Brinn about connections. Suspects Agan. Has phantom and morm as innocent (though morm less so, there's no definite conclusion there).

Celuien - again mentions that the EW and wolves may not communicate so it might not be possible to find connections.

Ka - makes sense about better to go after wolves than the EW when the EW is going to find it easier to hide.

I've got to post 67 but my head has gone a bit (I need food) and my battery is dying so I'll return later. I'm finding this going through it all quite helpful but I will likely leave it for the rest of the Day and focus on toDay when it comes to voting. Anyway, back soon.