WW XXXXI: With a Twist

[Nerwen]

Besides, I said "anyone who disagrees with you". That's all I did!

[mormegil]

Originally Posted by Nerwen

Besides, I said "anyone who disagrees with you". That's all I did!

Then I should be suspecting just about everybody then, eh?

[Legate of Amon Lanc]

Okay, going through SpM's posts was not as hard as I feared, but at least I could better concentrate on re-thinking everything and checking my thoughts. Here we go.

DAY1
#119 Says cautious people on Day 1 are suspicious, and says this is me and Nerwen. While he says cautious is my normal behavior, he is uneasy about Nerwen "she seems portraying herself as helpful". Agrees with most people that Shasta is jumpy.

#129
Again voices suspicion about Nerwen. Says it's maybe not that hot with Shasta but with the case that's building against him (that was when no one voted him yet by that time). Turns towards Nog while agreeing with Mac. Otherwise, suspects also morm for is "badly founded" cases. Also repeats suspicion of my opening talk about pre-game things. Boro, Eomer, Mac, Kath look normal to him, about Isa, Val, Agan, Miggy, Zali needs to form impression.
Votes Nog.

Okay, I must say now this seems even more sinister to me than it did originally. I can now imagine very well that SpM is a wolf, and that his vote for Nog was intentional wolf-on-wolf vote.


DAY2
#195 Wonders why Shasta died (as many did). Posts the voting record. Is puzzled why Nog did not do more to save himself and why he voted Rikae.

Only if he was a wolf, there could be some sinister way to distance himself from Nog behind this - and also to distance himself from the Night kill. But once again, I would be rather careful, as I know how it ends if I analyse someone with too much assumptions. But again, I encourage you to form your opinions on this.

#197 Ponders Mac-Nog brotherhood theory, saying it could explain why Nog did not save himself, yet says it's problematic as Mac could have saved him. Says other possibility is Nog decided to sacrifice himself and so make other wolves who voted him look innocent, and says in that case me or Agan could be wolves. Says Eomer and Boro's votes point to that one of them could be a wolf.

This post looks like very much pondering, yet full of unvoiced questions. The trouble is, SpM does not often say things plainly, like: "XY is a wolf", but rather "(long talk)...and this could point towards XY...(long talk)", which is of course a good way to implant some opinion on others.

#233 Again wonders about Shasta's death, saying Nerwen would not probably have killed Shasta. Ponders Mac, says he backed off his Aganzir theory a little possibly because the same could apply to him. Again says that me or Agan could be wolves. I would like to quote this, actually:

Originally Posted by SpM

The other possibility is that either Aganzir or Legate is a Wolf (or both are) and agreed with Nogrod in the final hours that they would turn against him to make themselves look good. Aganzir has explained her behaviour in voting for Nog and encouraging Shasta to do so, and it looks credible. And her vote came before Nog’s strange reaction to Rikae’s Christmas song. For that reason, Legate’s vote (on the basis of Nog’s starnge Rikae vote) actually sticks to me out as the more likely Wolf-on-Wolf vote fo the two.

In fact, this does not look good to me. I don't see how Agan's vote is better than mine. But - see below for conclusion.
In the rest of the post, he says he thinks Boro and Eomer innocent as they confessed they were trying to save Nog.
Then he says Valier is beginning to concern him. This is what I mentioned in my last post. I don't like this one bit, as I said earlier, also followed by the vote later.

#240 Says he's toying with voting one of Nog-voters. Posts list of players. Switchy-defends Aganzir (the same as above, and I really DON'T LIKE that). Otherwise, about most of the people he does not say anything much. Worried about Kath for her Nerwen-case, myself for voting Nogrod (NOTE: SpM, you ask me there why I switched for Nog - I believe you can get the answer if you read the post where I vote), also mentions Valier for her involvement in Nerwen-Kath issue.

#241 Says Kath did quite a wolvish thing saying Nerwen overreacted with the Seer-Cursed thing, posts his main suspects (Mac, Val, Kath, me, Aganzir) who he says are very close in his suspicions.

#243 Looks at TM. Asks about his reasonings, says his Eomer vote is throwaway one. Wants more explanation from Valier, votes Valier.

DAY 3
#272 Posts voting list. Briefly mentions we can't be 100% certain whether there was Ranger involved indeed. (Note down: This, if we find out a Cursed wolf happened, could point towards his innocence.)

#273 Says why he put up Mac as his suspect and says he voted Val because there seemed not to be chance to vote Mac. Stops at Nerwen's last minute scream. Okay, this is also one thing that makes me worried.

#278 Asks Boro to explain his suspicions on morm or Isa, repeats why he voted Val and not Mac (though I think he is not actually responding to what he was asked).

#281 Says my vote for Val could have been wolvish to start a bandwaggon. TM's vote was a throwaway one. He's right about this, but that says nothing even about their relationship with TM (as this is quite an obvious thing). Whatever, this is the last from him this far.

So, overall: My feelings have not gone better about SpM after rereading his posts, sometimes they made me even more uneasy. There are some people (like Aganzir probably the most), in whose case, if we learn they are wolves, we could quite well consider it another evidence of SpM being a wolf as well. Of course, then it's possible SpM, even if he is a wolf, simply found himself a "good horse" of the innocents and supports him, so I am not necessarily throwing them away both if one is a wolf. Whatever. Another thing is that I don't like the way he constantly brings back the suspicion on me, first of my opening talk about pre-game things and later. I know I may be touched by this more than other people would, as it concerns my person, but I believe the pre-game thing was solved and SpM was the only one who brought it up again. Then he seems to constantly go after me by hinting, hinting on my vote for Nog being suspicious, yet not acting on his own account. "Voice of Saruman", indeed. As I said, better if you judge for yourselves. But all in all, I have bad feelings about SpM. I will see now whether my powers are enough to make an analysis of someone else yet, but whatever the case, will be back later. Till then, goodbye.

[Boromir88]

Ummm, okay. I agree with you that you are way off track and got carried away but I'd like to know why you suddenly changed your mind as this 180 degree turn is sudden and unexpected I think it would be wise to answer why you think that now after such a vehement attack against me.~morm

It was something Eomer said in his last post, that was completely new information to me because I'm a sloppy reader. I can't believe I was so dense I didn't get the hint earlier. We both know if you're in a mindset of "so and so is guilty" it's extremely easy to find whatever that person says and reach the conclusion of "guilt," until someone else comes along and knocks some sense into it all. I went in to today assuming you were a wolf and so everything you said naturally stood out as wolvish...I was wrong.

Now onto Nerwen...I have a little card here with an asterisk next to post 155 and 158, I can't believe I almost forgot about this:

And she voted me in her very next post, saying it was because of my post about the "Cursed Seer" early in the game, and because she didn't like my explanation. Now, I think those are extremely flimsy reasons to vote someone on. It looks to me more like a reaction to what I'd just said.

This seemed strange her reason for accusing Kath is that Kath has "flimsy" reasons for suspecting her. It's Day 1 what do you want to see? Kath's observation of Nerwen's reaction was a valid one to make. I didn't agree with Kath at the time, but Kath's reasons for accusing and ultimately voting for Nerwen , were as good as anyone else's.

And post 158 is a defense for Nogrod:

That's all very well, Mac, but I read your first post on Nogrod, and it looks very thin indeed to me. But then his reaction does seem a bit paranoid... However, I don't see enough evidence to warrant voting him (or you, on the other hand).

At this point in time I would say Nogrod's lynching was still very unlikely. He had two votes, and the last minutes bandwagon against him caught me completely off guard. I had no clue Nogrod was going to be the Day 1 lynch...until well...he was lynched. Perhaps Nerwen then felt it safe to slip in a defense of her buddy?

This in 224 from Nerwen looks also strange:

I have thought myself that the attack on Rikae probably means something, but I don't think there's any point worrying about it yet.

If you have something to add, why not come out with it? You generalize it as "meaning something" but then cast it aside by saying there's no point in worrying about it? Shouldn't there have been if you thought it actually "meant something?"

So I guess you've had an attack of total amnesia about your own behaviour yesterDay, Morm?

Actually, morm was saying you have been suspecting people for suspecting you...and you imply here morm did the same on Day 1. I don't think so, he suspected me not because I suspected him, but because I would be a bold wolf capable of doing some crazy unlikely things. And on Day 1, I was really the only one who found him off. Where you, Nerwen, have definitely been going after anyone who has suspected you.

Nerwen's vote for Valier, starts the bandwagon against her...anyone notice the votes against Valier began after she had already voted and was likely to not return? I don't trust everyone who voted for Val yesterday...it looks like if a wolf needed saving Val would be an easy "lets get her" target for the wolves. Someone who was quiet, had suspicion building against her, and was not likely to be around for the rest of the day.

Edit: crossed with Agan

[Nerwen]

Originally Posted by Boromir88

Actually, morm was saying you have been suspecting people for suspecting you...and you imply here morm did the same on Day 1. I don't think so, he suspected me not because I suspected him, but because I would be a bold wolf capable of doing some crazy unlikely things.

Please read my post where I stated my arguments against Morm.

Look, I did not suspect Valier because she suspected me, but because she kept on accusing people without giving proper reasons. I thought she was a wolf, hiding behind "oh, I just have a feeling about so-and-so", rather than giving arguments that could be attacked. I was wrong.

As for Kath, I thought she looked wolfish because of the way she voted me immediately after I threw out a mild suspicion against her. I have explained this already.

Please remember that I've had a lot of people going after me from the start of the game, attacking me for often weird reasons, then attacking me for defending myself. Does it really surprise you that I think some may be wolves?

Originally Posted by Boromir88

It was something Eomer said in his last post, that was completely new information to me because I'm a sloppy reader. I can't believe I was so dense I didn't get the hint earlier. We both know if you're in a mindset of "so and so is guilty" it's extremely easy to find whatever that person says and reach the conclusion of "guilt," until someone else comes along and knocks some sense into it all. I went in to today assuming you were a wolf and so everything you said naturally stood out as wolvish...I was wrong.

Can you explain this a bit more clearly, Boro? I swear I'll take my vote back if you can convince me Morm is innocent.