WW XXXXI: With a Twist

[Boromir88]

Can you explain this a bit more clearly, Boro? I swear I'll take my vote back if you can convince me Morm is innocent.~Nerwen

The truth lies with the cradle crafter and the tree trimmer...can you tell I've recently watched National Treasure?

Ok, so onto Aganzir and the Might. I'm kind of mixed on Agan. On one hand I'm trusting the judgement of someone's who's judgement I trust more than my own, at the moment. Yet, I think he's said some very valuable, helpful, information thoughout the time here. Also, I'm not sold yet that there was a wolf in the Nogrod voters...if there was I would guess it would be Legate. As witness Nogrod's wolfish behaviors before, I can imagine sacrificing himself and telling buddy Legate to vote for him...casting a "crucial vote" against him. It was Agan who cast the go ahead vote, but there was a cross post and Legate says he was in the mindset that he was casting the deciding vote to put Nogrod into the lead.

What particularly makes me feel that Agan is innocent is just some helpful comments like this:

Has no one really considered the possibility that Boro was merely trying us with his vote? At least to me it seems quite possible.

At the time when several people were coming along saying my sudden vote for Kath was suspicious, he says that. I would have expected a wolf-Agan to jump right along and continue with it. Agan and I have been in several villages, and as he has seen, when there are retractable votes, I like to have fun with using them. I figure, they are there for us, might as well put them to good use and try to get some info out of 'em.

And what she said about Kath on Day 1:

Now this may be grasping at straws, but that "I'm not defending Mac" caught my eye. It just looks like she's trying to make sure that everybody realise she's not on the same side with Mac if one of them is lynched and revealed to be a wolf.

And Day 2 with regard to Mac:

This is not something an innocent says. If Mac thinks Noggie is a wolf, why on earth does he tell others to listen to him? He's saying "Even though I think Noggie is a wolf, I hope you others won't do that. Don't pay too much attention to my opinions, I can be wrong as well."
I can't put my finger on it any better, but it was something I didn't like even when I read it on Day 1. With Nogwolf dead, it makes me feel only worse about Mac.

I think Agan has reached the wrong conclusion about Mac, but I found that comment by Mac awkward as well, and it was a good spot on Agan's part. I take it as Mac made a statement that was just something he shouldn't have said...nevertheless it was still the statement of an innocent. It's just as hard to survive as an ordinary as it is a wolf. Everyone has to watch what they say, if an innocent for whatever reason, doesn't want to end up dead, he/she has to edit themselves...just as a wolf would.

So, on one hand, Agan looks like an innocent who has reached the wrong conclusion on another innocent. Yet, has been a helpful, willing to contribute person...who after all did cast a crucial vote against a known wolf. On the other hand, I can't shake the feeling that one of the deciding votes cast for Nogrod (either Agan or Legate) is that of a wolf, because of knowing how wolf-Nogrod likes to sacrifice his partners (or himself) to make another look good.

See, I told you Kath, this is what happens when I think too much. It was so much easier for me to be a stubborn pig headed lunatic...at least that way I could reach a decision. But I'm gaining more and more distrust with Nerwen.

edit: crossed with Nerwen and Eomer...and I'll get to the Might when I have more time...I have to go now.

[Nerwen]

Originally Posted by Boromir88

The truth lies with the cradle crafter and the tree trimmer...can you tell I've recently watched National Treasure?

Well, I've never watched it myself, so the answer's no.

I still don't get it what it is with Eomer's post... but there's something Morm said in his reply that makes me wonder. Only it doesn't prove anything.

Still–

--Mormegil.

I think I may have seriously misjudged him.

Damn. Now I have no idea who to vote for.

[Boromir88]

Ok, so now I have some time for TM...

Posts 86, 116, and 117 The Mighthas defended Nerwen. So, despite what Nerwen argues, The Might consistantly defended Nerwen on Day 1.

As far as I've seen Nerwen hasn't been so defending of The Might, but has made defenses for him. So, the question is would two wolves be this close and want to defend eachother so...well...closely?

Also, Nerwen's recent recanting of her vote for morm I think speaks to her favor, its going to put my stomach in a horrid knot if she dies and she's innocent. So, perhaps both are not wolves, but I would suggest if we ever reach a conclusion on Nerwen, to take a close look at The Might. Nerwen was a prime candidate on Day 1, so it's quite reasonable to say the wolves thought she would end up lynched. And a wolf-TM could come in and play the "I told you so card...didn't I tell you she was innocent?"

He didn't vote on Day 1, but I think his explanation is genuine. I also got confused with the voting hours. Although I believe it to be TM explaining what truthfully happened...that doesn't mean that wolves aren't honest. One of the most successfuly wolf tirades was pulled off by the phantom who did not tell a single lie the entire duration.

On Day 2, there's not much, he goes with the Valier accusations but casts a throw away vote for Eomer. Up to this point, TM has been playing cautiously. He defends a prime candidate on Day 1, doesn't name any real suspects and doesn't vote, on Day 2 he rouses suspicion against Val but votes Eomer instead. Were you nervous in having the blood of an innocent on you?

And his lone post today...#283, seems like Valier noticed about his first post on Day 2...just awkward:

SPM, you must of course also acknowledge that my vote for Eomer came at a very early point as I was unsure that I would be able to go online till the deadline, which as seen I was not.

I don't like the "you must of course also acknowledge" bit.

So...

++The Might

I trust two M's but not the M. I'm wary about Nerwen, wary that she's a wolf but has appealed to me, duped me, fooled me into thinking she's innocent. Or that she's truthfully an innocent and we're about to make a mistake. Nevertheless, if it becomes necessary, I will retract my vote for TM and vote for Nerwen.

[The Might]

Yes, I know I said that I would have more time on my hands, turns out I might have been rather wrong about that, at least as far today is concerned. Woke up just an hour ago and I have to be somewhere else in 45 minutes so I'll try to take a look at everything as quick as I can.

I still fell that Nerwen is innocent, it's simply the way she has posted so far that rather makes me think she is being targeted on purpose by the wolves.

Also, I dislike the way that my posts have been understood as a wolf helping another, but I actually thought that might happen.

Also, I'd like you to explain the last part of your post Boro.
What is it that you don't you like about that part?
The fact that SPM didn't mention when my vote was made?

For now my suspects are morm and Eomer.

As such I shall stick with my earlier suspicion and vote

++ Eomer
I'm off.

[Rikae]

I'm glad Mac clarified his suspicions of Aganzir. It actually does put my mind at ease, to some degree, about him, although I'm not quite convinced of Aganzir's guilt, either. One thing that does worry me about Aganzir is the whole "he's accusing me so I won't accuse him" thing. It sort of came out of nowhere, seemingly. I think it might be useful to test Mac's "hunch“ on Aganzir – he was, after all, right on Nogrod, and he actually is a highly skilled wolf-hunter. If he's mislead us, we have time to deal with him later.

I have to wonder about Farael at this point. All along I've been writing him off as the normal Farael, aggressive, controversial, etc. - but actually, he is bending over backwards to be uncontroversial. His posts invariably come on the heels of, and echo, another player's suspicions - sometimes echoing the choice of words as well. He did this with my wording that Shasta was "edgy"; he followed Nerwen's suspicions of Valier, and now he is doing the same thing with SPaM and Mac. Sure, he goes after suspects aggressively, as he usually does, but this time the suspects aren't his own. Maybe it's just Lommy's absence... Still, I don't like it at all.

It appears that Nerwen and The Might are going to be today's candidates, but I don't find either of the two particularly suspicious. I would prefer to give my vote to Farael, if it wouldn't mean that it would be completely wasted.

[Eomer of the Rohirrim]

Farael concerns me too, Rikae. I've noticed that he's been too friendly for comfort, even with his 'conspiracy theorist' role. Unlike you, though, I would not be unhappy with voting for either Nerwen or The Might.

My opinion on Nerwen is still befuddled: on the one hand the killing of Shasta by her would have been unusually bold, but on the other she's been a bit too confrontational and dominant in the village debate.

The Might seems awfully creepy to me (but maybe I'm consciously making this so because of his votes for me). He doesn't show up much, doesn't say much, and votes for someone who hasn't received a single other vote -- probably to give himself an aura of originality.

[Legate of Amon Lanc]

Looks like things are flowing slowly, yet are flowing. Let me add my two cents to the debate.

Concerning Farael, he does not seem suspicious to me. I wouldn't say he is "too friendly" - I played with him only a few times so I don't know his style as well as some others here, yet he does not raise any alarms and in fact seems quite genuine and helpful, or at least trying to be helpful. So I'm not bothered with him this far.

My problem with Miggy is rather that he acts differently than in the games before: he acts more on his own behalf, does not "go with the flow" but stands against it. Which is also what concerns his vote yesterDay. And now I see he holds his case even toDay. A stubborn Miggy could very well hide his wolfishness behind his stubborness. Hm. I don't have any particular view on Eomer, in fact, I did not focus on him much till this time, however (and because) there was nothing particularly alarming about him, at least to me. So I cannot judge TM on this basis, maybe he just spotted something I didn't. Also, maybe it is indeed only that Miggy has more time on his hands, as he says, and so he has the chance to form his own opinions.

Originally Posted by TM

Also, I dislike the way that my posts have been understood as a wolf helping another, but I actually thought that might happen.

Now what to make of this? Is this "oh my, I knew things are going to get wrong, but you know, I just did that"? Honest? Or is it a dodge from the wolvish Might?

Well, I cannot say I would be strongly convinced of TM's guilt, yet, I consider him as one of the possible suspects and if there are no better candidates toDay, I may vote him. But it's still a long time till DL and I will wait and use the time to sort my thoughts on everything.

[The Saucepan Man]

A bit of a long one, I am afraid, but there’s quite a bit to catch up on.

Originally Posted by Mac

That was all I had yesterday. Yes, it's not much, I know.

And yet you accuse me of having a weak case against you! What I don’t understand is that you major on Aganzir, yet you say nothing about Legate. His vote for Nogrod looks much more suspicious than hers to me, coming as it did after Nog‘s very weak reasoning against Rikae. I agree that there was most likely a Wolf among the Nog voters, but I reckon that it was either you or Legate. Perhaps both.

Originally Posted by The Might

So please don't try to twist things as you want them to sound like.

What is it toDay with people accusing me of twisting the facts?! All I said was that, of all the votes yesterDay, yours looks the most like a ‘throwaway’ vote. Which it does.

Originally Posted by Boro

As far as Mac, I figure he spotted a wolf on Day 1, might as well trust him, until he is horribly wrong.

I disagree. If he’s a Wolf, he’s a dangerous one. Better to lynch him now than later. And your comparison with Nog eventually being spotted in a previous village by virtue of him not having been killed doesn’t work here, to my mind. Most villagers here are strong players, so I should imagine that a few will remain for him to hide amongst.

Originally Posted by Nerwen

Now, The Might has not "constantly defended" me, or anything like it.

Actually, reading morm’s analysis, which accords with my recollection (and Boro‘s subsequent analysis), he has pretty much, at least on Day 1.

Legate, I am not going to respond to your analysis of me in detail. It was pretty accurate actually, save for the asides. But we all know that one can approach an analysis of someone with a certain feeling and find that it justifies that feeling (or, indeed, that one can craft an analysis with Wolfish intent). It is interesting, though, that you decided to analyse in detail one of the few people (the only person?) who seriously suspects you. One point that I will respond to, though:

Originally Posted by Legate

Then he seems to constantly go after me by hinting, hinting on my vote for Nog being suspicious, yet not acting on his own account. "Voice of Saruman", indeed.

For goodness, sake, this is much the same (bad) point as the one that Mac raised earlier. I explained why I voted for Valier yesterDay but, as I have said above, I do still believe that there was at least one Wolf among the Nog voters.

Finally (for now), I am becoming a tad concerned about Boro. He’s been acting awfully strange toDay. There may well be a good (as in virtuous) explanation for it, but it looks plain weird to me. I don’t understand his reasoning for ‘clearing’ morm at all. But the question for me is should we trust him?

[Aganzir]

Boro - The person of whose innocence I've been quite sure for the whole game.
I'm slightly concerned, though, about the way he's saying we shouldn't concentrate on this far-fetched theory of both Nog and Mac being wolves. If Mac's revealed to be a wolf, I think it might point at Boro also.

Eomer - Another I have been considering innocent. One of the main reasons he has stated himself: "If a wolf is leading the votes 5-3 (I believe those were the numbers) with two minutes to go before deadline, why would a fellow wolf appear and mount a comically late attempt to save him?"
He's being reasonable and has good points.

Farael - I really can't say about him. I've been more or less trusting him thus far, but I don't know. I think his way of suspecting people is different from the last game (the only I've played with him), but he said himself his playing style may vary from game to game, so I don't think that's a reason to be concerned.
I'm more inclined to think he's innocent.

Isabell - I admit I've only played once with her a long time ago, and we were fellow wolves then, so I don't really know about her general playing style. At least she's different from the Izzie I plotted with, but then again it was her first game here.
She's been mostly reasonable, but I still don't completely understand where she got her suspicions about me as I had already explained my reasons. However, I doubt a wolf would suspect an innocent about something that should be quite clear.

Kath - Considering her own behaviour, she looks rather innocent. But the way she kept accusing Nerwen looks weird to me. Of those twain, I think Nerwen is more probably innocent.

Legate - He doesn't sit right with me. He's not being himself, and I will be very surprised if he turns out to be innocent. I copy what I said in #248: "He just seems to be a complete, deliberate opposite to the normal Legate."
The more I suspect him, the more he seems to be suspecting me.
And I know I'm sometimes a clever wolf, you can stop repeating it now. But I also hope I'm a better tactician than what you are saying.

Mac - My opinion hasn't changed.

morm - It's hard to read him. I'm quite sure, though, that both Mac and him aren't wolves as he brought forward the Nog-Mac debate in his first post on Day 2. At the moment I'm not too worried about him.

Nerwen - I think she's no different from usual. If I remember correctly she has always gathered a lot of suspicion without ever being a wolf. While I think it's improbable that a Nerwolf had killed Shasta, I do believe, though, that she would have been capable and daring enough to do that.
I agree with her about several things & am quite inclined to consider her innocent.

Rikae - Pretty much the normal Rikae. I'm inclined to think she's innocent.

Might - I agree with (otherwise distrusted) Legate that Might has been more independent than in the previous games. But I think that doesn't necessarily point at wolvishness but the experience he has gained, and I also buy his own explanation. Other than that, there's very little I can say about him, except that I don't particularly like his Eomer votes. He's another player who is suspected every single time.

Saucie - Sensible. His argument with Mac makes me feel better about him.

**

Innocent:
Eomer
morm
Nerwen
Rikae

Possibly innocent:
Boro
Farael
Isabell
Saucie

Possibly guilty:
Kath
Might

Guilty:
Mac
Legate

**

Originally Posted by Rikae

One thing that does worry me about Aganzir is the whole "he's accusing me so I won't accuse him" thing.

I'm afraid I didn't quite grasp what you mean here.

edit: xed with two Saucies, Mac and Farael

[Rikae]

Aganzir, if you don't know what I mean there, there's no use explaining - it's about as clear as it could possibly be. Well, here goes: you responded to Mac's suspicions by claiming that he was trying to stop you from suspecting him, but you really presented no danger to him at that point, as far as I could see. It looks to me like a sneaky way of trying to make someone look defensive when he isn't.
I don't find TM wolfish in the least - it's obvious to me he is simply confused, and lynching someone for coming up with his own opinions is downright ridiculous. If he is coming into his own as a player, good for him, I say.
I also don't particularly want to lynch Nerwen, as the suspicions of her seem based, more than anything, on her Nerwen-ishness. She has always been rather edgy and aggressive, as I recall; however, I will consider switching my vote to her if necessary.
I'm concerned that lynching Macalaure may be a very serious mistake. Remember, Nogrod is a very prominent player and a likely target for closer observation earlier in the game.
I strongly suggest we listen to Macalaure before we judge him.

++Aganzir