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06-06-2008, 11:33 PM | #641 |
Shade with a Blade
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This may or may not be helpful to anyone else besides myself. That's OK.
CAILIN Post #51 Recommends we try to catch both WWs and EW. Suggests that the EW will try to scry those who the GW would not and those who are less “illustrious”, but then disregards this and all such theories as useless speculation. I believe her position on speculation does an about-face later on. Post #58 States again that she imagines the EW would select wolves from those the GW would be unlikely to scry. Posts list of Likely Wolves. This is composed of Lalaith, Izzy, Aganzir (good call), Herself, Kitanna, Kath, Legate, Eonwe, Volo, Mormegil, and Lhuna. Her list of Likely Innocents: Lommy, TP, Diamond18, Macalaure, Rikae, Roa, Nilp, Brinn, Durelin. Post #63 Says that Volo’s “we wolves” was probably a mistake and not a wolf slip. Fair enough. Post #78 Now says it’s worthwhile to speculate regarding who would apply for Wizard positions, and who would be chosen as a wolf. Is this not a contradiction of what she said earlier in #51? Post #96 Responds to Aganzir’s suspicion. Defends speculation again. Post #101 THE Ka is at the top of Cailin’s suspect list, based on an unfortunate misquoting by Roa which Ka perpetuated. Cailin’s suspicion is understandable at this point, I suppose, as there is little else to go on in Day 1. Post #105 This is the first post where anyone really goes after Nerwen. Cailin takes on Nerwen’s first post: “This is a very suspicious first post. Nerwen takes a long time to do nothing but criticise other people's ideas and post signs indicating potential wolvish behaviour. She's also giving wolves a nice guide on how not to act. I can't see what she hopes to achieve with this, other than to look helpful and serious in the eyes of the casual reader.” It seems a stretch to get all this out of Nerwen’s post. Nerwen’s criticisms regarding methods of finding an EW or WW seemed legitimate to me, and not particularly long. Also, it seems like a gross misrepresentation on Cailin’s part to say that Nerwen’s guide to the behavior of werewolves is more helpful to the wolves than it is to the innocents. Post #108 In response to Nerwen, states again that it’s unnecessary to state common wolf tactics, because we know them already. Post #123 Dislikes Nerwen even more for voting her following their disagreement, but say that she’s still thinking about voting Ka for “carelessly copying Roa’s misquote” about her (Cailin). It seems to me that she’s fishing for a bandwagon, either Nerwen or Ka, but could care less which one goes down. Post #127 Points out that TP seems to be playing the role of villager as a neutral one. Also suggests that TP might be a bluffing wizard, but doubts he is a wolf. Post #165 Votes Nerwen here (beginning of Nerwen bandwagon), because she doesn’t have any other substantial suspicions. Restates her accusations from #105: Nerwen merely spends a long time criticizing others in order to gain a position on “the pedestal of sense.” THE Ka seems to have disappeared inexplicably from the suspicion-radar by this point… Post #315 Analyzes Volo. No, that’s inaccurate. Really, she just sums up all his posts without actually interpreting them. A lot of work, but not much help. Trying to achieve a spot on the good old pedestal of sense? Also sums up Kitanna’s posts. Apologizes to Nerwen, because she didn’t think everyone would follow her vote the way they did. She was flabbergasted, in fact. Oops. Claims to have a “crackpot theory” regarding someone else who looks “mighty suspicious”, but won’t reveal it yet. Let’s see if she does! Post #337 Acknowledges that there’s not much to gain from looking at Volo and Kitanna. Recommends that we ignore the Roa/TP fight, as they’re likely “two proud ordos going at it.” Post #359 Suggests that sally is way to appease and make friends. Finds her suspicious for this, and, I think, legitimately points out that sally voted for TP the Day before, but is now joking about with him, which seems a curious switching of attitudes. Post #371 Jumps on my statement that I think either Roa or TP is bad, and finds my reasoning odd. I didn’t actually give any reasoning, but she suggests possible reasons I might have, and which she finds unpersuasive. She makes me sound pretty bad, though. Maybe she really doesn’t want us inspecting Roa vs. TP. If the case, I doubt her motivation is good. Post #412 Announces that Diamond seems less than innocent, and runs off to take a closer look. Post #416 Can’t find a single interesting point that Diamond has made. I agree, actually. By this point, Diamond has been entertaining (keep it up!), but not especially helpful. Cailin thinks Diamond may be a baddie hiding in the open. I think this is legitimate. Post #434 Not sure who to vote for, but is suspicious of Sally, Brinniel, Diamond, and me. Post #466 Concedes that Ka’s accidental misquote may have been an honest mistake, but maintains that it’s not a bad cause for suspicion. I think she’s wrong about this; an accidental copying of a misquote is an awfully flimsy basis for a vote. Denies jumping on Nerwen, but I really don’t think you can describe the situation any other way. They definitely jumped on each other, though Nerwen’s post addressed multiple people, and only mentioned Cailin briefly. Post #480 In response to Brinniel: says it would be as correct to say that she jumped on Nerwen as to say that Nerwen jumped on her. She’s right about this. Also, Cailin doesn’t like what she calls Brinniel’s single-mindedness regarding the who-jumped-on-whom issue. Post #498 Creeped out by McCaber. Wants to keep Lalaith alive. Uneasy about TP. Curious about but hesitant to vote for Brinniel. Asks if anyone wants to vote for sally or me. Looks to me like she’s fishing for a bandwagon again. TP offers to take her up on the offer and vote for me (in post #504), but seems to think it’s not logistically feasible. McCaber suggests that it could be done. Post #514 Wants to vote for me, because I’m creepier than the other candidates. I thought McCaber was the creepy one. Not anymore, I suppose, since he’s willing to support her anti-Gwath campaign. Post #526 Cailin says: “Nay, I know people are watching. I'm testing to see if there is support. I don't want to throw away my vote.” I’m not sure who she means this is reference to. Post #532 Disappointed that no one (i.e. not enough people to get one of us killed) wanted to vote against sally or gwath. Post #537 Votes Aganzir. This is the final and deciding vote for Aganzir. If Cailin is a wolf, then she's likely voting off the Safe Votes For Wolves list (if it exists). So, Cailin does some really bad stuff. She start the Nerwen bandwagon, bases her suspicion of Ka on a copying of an accidental misquote, makes weird apparent contradictions, seems to fish around for public support before voting, misrepresents aspects of Nerwen's posts, and vehemently wants us to not inspect the Roa/TP debate. But she also casts the vote that gets Aganzir killed, which means that either she is a wolf who decided to risk sacrificing her fellow in order to build her own reputation, an innocent who made some mistakes early on, or a wolf who got scried over somewhere in between Nerwen's death and Aganzir's death. I have to say that based on the frequently weak, exaggerated, or non-existent reasoning of her posts, coupled with her tendency to drop suspects once it's clear they won't be lynched, I really don't like the way Cailin looks right now. However, whether I vote her or not will depend largely on what happens toDay. I mean to take closer looks at legate and tp as well. EDIT: Crossed with just about everyone. This beast of a post took me several hours, and I feel rather bad putting you all through it.
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Stories and songs. Last edited by Gwathagor; 06-06-2008 at 11:41 PM. |
06-06-2008, 11:40 PM | #642 | |
Hauntress of the Havens
Join Date: Mar 2003
Location: IN it, but not OF it
Posts: 2,538
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For a moment I was trying to operate under the assumption that Leggie and Agan are communicating wolves, or at least they knew they were both wolves. Then I stumbled onto this post. I don't know what to make of it. Agan posted this knowing she would be revealed as a wolf after she is lynched. Obviously her intent is to spread confusion, especially if the wolves do know each other. This would make, at first thinking, these people she mentioned innocent. If the wolves don't know each other, that would make it a little more likely that she got at least one of them right, I mean a wolf. But what if she posted this to protect at least one of them from lynching, who could be her fellow wolves? Because obviously, we wouldn't take what she said seriously because we now know she's a wolf. She tells us to look at them, and we would most likely think they're innocent. I hope that made sense. |
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06-06-2008, 11:46 PM | #643 |
Eidolon of a Took
Join Date: Sep 2002
Location: my own private fantasy world
Posts: 3,460
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That's a pretty damning analysis of Caillie, Gwath. I'm not sure what I'd think of it if I didn't already suspect Cailin (hey, I may use a joking tone, but milk curdling evil was not an understatement) but it is all very... confirmatory.
Kinda wish she's show her bones today and refute (not the least because I love a good refutation of a damning analysis) but even if she never does, I'm not adverse to the notion of lynching her. One thing I wonder -- has Eomer been doing any posting for her? I know there was some kind of mention of him stepping to help in if she got too busy (or something) but I don't recall if he was going to announce this substitution or just post seamlessly. Just bringing it up because if it were so it might explain some inconsistencies or seeming differences in manner. Ah, this brings back fond memories of Not-Cailin.
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06-06-2008, 11:48 PM | #644 | |
Eidolon of a Took
Join Date: Sep 2002
Location: my own private fantasy world
Posts: 3,460
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06-06-2008, 11:50 PM | #645 |
Ghost Prince of Cardolan
Join Date: Apr 2007
Location: Amongst trees.
Posts: 919
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Didn't Cailin hold on to her vote until the very end yesterDay? As well, was even wanting to bandwagon Gwath or others? I believe everyone knew she was holding on to it, I recall someone telling her to vote for Aganzir to save Mac from the chopping block.
This is just off the top of my head; but I'm heading away from the computer for a little bit. My elbow is killing me.
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But I was clinging to her like a homicidal monkey.
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06-06-2008, 11:53 PM | #646 |
Ghost Prince of Cardolan
Join Date: Apr 2007
Location: Amongst trees.
Posts: 919
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She very easily could've posted what she did, because she knew we would analyze it; thus wasting time on potentially nothing.
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But I was clinging to her like a homicidal monkey.
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06-06-2008, 11:53 PM | #647 | ||
Beloved Shadow
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*sigh*
The case that I wrote up earlier... it's not here. I can't find it. My computer ate it! But then I just refreshed my window, and I see that Gwath has made some of the very same points that I was wanting to! So that kind of saves me. (Gwath's post) Real quick I'll add a couple things. I'm not quite sure how to say this, but.... Cailin acts in a way that reminds me of the way I'd act were I a WW a couple times, and she comes to judgements that I don't think she'd make as an innocent. It's hard to explain. It's just like everything she says just rings WW alarms for me. Lommy, remember that WerePenguin game? Remember the way Boro and Ang set off my alarms from the get-go. That's how I'm feeling with Cailin. Yes, yes, I know it's just "feelings" rather than hard evidence, but the fact is we are a bit short on hard evidence considering we don't know who the EW is and it is doubtful the WWs know the EW or even each other. Feelings are the best thing I have. All right, anyway.... On Day 1, when discussing possible WW choices for the EW, she said this- Quote:
And then yesterday- I know this is kind of lame, but... Quote:
She's seen me operate plenty. And Eomer is right there with her, and he's seen me quite a bit as well. If she isn't sure of me I'd bet that he's busy whispering "tp's innocent" into her ear. I know that seems dumb, but that's just what I'm thinking. And then she holds her vote later on Day 2 and starts shopping around to lynch someone else. Did she know that Agan was a WW? It's possible. But either way, it just doesn't seem like a Cailin move. I'd come out and ask "Hey, you guys wanna lynch so-and-so instead?" but it didn't feel right coming from Cailin. And then Mac reveals, and she says "I suppose I should trust Mac", but then waits till 6:00 to vote. What was she waiting on? It takes less than 10 seconds to post "+ + Aganzir". You'd think she would've been in an outright panic if she was truly innocent! "Oh great! Mac's the Ranger! It's up to me! The deadline is almost here!" Anyway, I'd really like to lynch her. This is the first time I've done multiple read-throughs on someone and gotten a consistent Wolfish feeling for them. And to top it off, Cel had a "gut feeling" about Cailin yesterday. And you know- I think Cel has good instincts, and I think she is innocent in this game. And then there's Brin, who I've been feeling as innocent for quite a while. She listed her prime suspects yesterday as Agan and Cailin. She was right once. I think she might be right again.
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the phantom has posted.
This thread is now important. |
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06-06-2008, 11:54 PM | #648 | |
Hauntress of the Havens
Join Date: Mar 2003
Location: IN it, but not OF it
Posts: 2,538
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06-07-2008, 12:04 AM | #649 |
Eidolon of a Took
Join Date: Sep 2002
Location: my own private fantasy world
Posts: 3,460
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Well well well.
Looks like Cailin has just been upgraded from milk curdling to soul curdling evil. (I like to bring the dramatic terminology to the game.) This is shaping up to be an interesting day.
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All shall be rather fond of me and suffer from mild depression. |
06-07-2008, 12:04 AM | #650 | |
Werewolf Psychic
Join Date: Apr 2007
Location: In fire, water, earth, and air. But mostly water.
Posts: 2,832
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Shasta– ... However, if he's innocent his famous clairvoyant powers must be taking the week off. Meanwhile, the Night-kills have been awfully effective– almost like we're dealing with a psychic wolf... - Nerwen, WW LXXV Last edited by Shastanis Althreduin; 06-07-2008 at 12:04 AM. Reason: X'd with Di |
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06-07-2008, 12:10 AM | #651 | |
Beloved Shadow
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But now some good news! I turns out that I will be able to be around quite a bit tomorrow! That means I don't have to stay up late tonight posting. So I'm going to go to bed and do most of my posting tomorrow late morning and early afternoon (between 4 & 9 GMT). But a couple quick things, just so people know where I stand (I think people should always try to let everyone know where they stand)- 1) Sorry for suspecting you, Shasta. After my thorough read throughs I felt you rather innocent and I like the way you've been saying things today. 2) Lommy, unless turned last night, has got to be innocent. 3) I feel rather good about Legate, Brin, Celuin, and Rikae. 4) Cailin is bad. 5) I'm sleepy. Bed time. It's been a long week. *falls asleep*
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the phantom has posted.
This thread is now important. |
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06-07-2008, 12:12 AM | #652 | |||||||||||||
Reflection of Darkness
Join Date: Jun 2002
Location: Polishing the stars. Well, somebody has to do it; they're looking a little bit dull.
Posts: 2,983
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Call me crazy, but I really think we should not come around suspicions only on the assumption that two wolves may know each other. They could...but we can't know that for sure, so I just see it as faulty reasoning to say someone looks furry they look like they might be a wolf with someone else. Get what I'm saying? I only skimmed through tp's analysis of Cailin, but I do want a better look later...
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Nolite te bastardes carborundorum |
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06-07-2008, 12:22 AM | #653 | |
Eidolon of a Took
Join Date: Sep 2002
Location: my own private fantasy world
Posts: 3,460
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This brings up that screenshot. And if you want a list of a certain person's posts (all of 'em) you click on the number of posts they've made. Makes reviewing a single person's posts, like, way easier, man. Also, regarding nameless possession. I thought she meant that the quote in question did not have a name attached to it. Like the one I just did for you.
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All shall be rather fond of me and suffer from mild depression. |
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06-07-2008, 12:31 AM | #654 | ||
Reflection of Darkness
Join Date: Jun 2002
Location: Polishing the stars. Well, somebody has to do it; they're looking a little bit dull.
Posts: 2,983
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And I did at least know of the 'see all posts by that person' feature, thankfully. Quote:
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Nolite te bastardes carborundorum |
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06-07-2008, 12:35 AM | #655 | |
Werewolf Psychic
Join Date: Apr 2007
Location: In fire, water, earth, and air. But mostly water.
Posts: 2,832
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Quote:
I'm in agreement that Cailin, in light of Gwath's analysis (thanks by the way, Gwath), looks pretty bad. As does Legate still. Celuien and Lommy, I can't get a read on. I'll try them later, but.... it's late and I'm tired. I may lurk for a while, but I'm going to bed soon. Good night.
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Shasta– ... However, if he's innocent his famous clairvoyant powers must be taking the week off. Meanwhile, the Night-kills have been awfully effective– almost like we're dealing with a psychic wolf... - Nerwen, WW LXXV |
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06-07-2008, 12:47 AM | #656 | |
Eidolon of a Took
Join Date: Sep 2002
Location: my own private fantasy world
Posts: 3,460
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Quote:
Speaking of that, I did look through all of Shasta's posts. He doesn't feel overtly suspicious to me, though he did seem to cling to only two suspects for a long time (Legate and phantom) before seeing fit to analyze McCaber and Gwath. I'm not sure that's suspicious, necessarily, but it bears keeping in mind. The thing that niggles at me is how much he's posted without saying anything overly controversial. Maybe I'm just a controversy addict, but you know. Okay. Right now, I've been engaging in long bouts of starting at my sleeping cats and any thinking about WW I've been doing has been punctuated by marveling at how cute they are and how good they make the act of sleeping appear. Merry is making whimpering noises in his sleep ZOMG I may die from such exposure to raw cuteness. So this is likely my last post for tonight. zzzz
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All shall be rather fond of me and suffer from mild depression. |
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06-07-2008, 01:39 AM | #657 |
Ghost Prince of Cardolan
Join Date: Apr 2007
Location: Amongst trees.
Posts: 919
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What made you want to analyze Cailin, Gwath?
I echo the statement about american keyboards... no division sign.
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06-07-2008, 02:45 AM | #658 |
Ghost Prince of Cardolan
Join Date: Jun 2005
Location: Lurking in the shadows.
Posts: 711
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I'll let you lynch me if you guess which posts were Eomer's and which were mine.
No, seriously, since your assumptions about my playing style seem to be influencing your analysis (and I'm specifically addressing Phantom here), allow me to clear things up. The first Day most, but not all posts, were of my own making. Brinn guessed right at the meaning of the nameless possession and there were some other posts here and there that were not composed by yours truly. Day 2 was all Eomer - this is obviously going to lead to some contrast in style. A more thorough response to Gwath is coming up. It's because I'm really, really busy. I would have dropped out, but Eomer wanted to play pretty badly. |
06-07-2008, 03:00 AM | #659 | |||
Reflection of Darkness
Join Date: Jun 2002
Location: Polishing the stars. Well, somebody has to do it; they're looking a little bit dull.
Posts: 2,983
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Well, I can't agree with all of phantom's reasonings behind his suspicion for Cailin. For one thing, I can't relate to (and therefore trust) his own personal experiences and feelings in previous games. But there is one really good point that he did bring up:
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As for Rikae...her attitude has changed drastically toDay...much more aggressive. Though looking through posts, I did notice her attitude started to turn at the end of yesterDay. I really don't know what to think. An aggressive Rikae is more of a typical Rikae, though I think that applies when she's both an innocent and wolf. I'm actually starting to wonder if we should question when she was acting much more mellow and "less threatening." People noticed and commented on it...is it possible that people noticing a change in playing style would make an evil Rikae nervous and revert back to her old self? It bugged me before, but I'm really starting to not like how McCaber is just popping in and out...voting with no explanation. He only has six posts and all of them are short. He says he doesn't have much time and even admits to flying under the radar: Quote:
The same could be said for anyone posting infrequently. But McCaber's the one who sticks out the most to me, mainly because he says the least in his posts and doesn't give any explanation. Quote:
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06-07-2008, 03:11 AM | #660 | |
Ghost Prince of Cardolan
Join Date: Jun 2005
Location: Lurking in the shadows.
Posts: 711
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Response to Gwathagor
From Eomer.
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Ok. I won't do a post-by-post riposte because it would be too long and no-one would read it. But I noticed a couple of little things you mention that seem pretty unfair to me (something about a contradiction in my first 4 posts? ) If I don't address something specific that you want, please remind me. I think it was Lhuna who argued in my favour about your Nerwen ''bandwagon''. What I did had nothing to do with a bandwagon: I voted for someone with no votes who I found suspicious. I really don't see what's hard to understand about that thing with The Ka. It's happened in games before: a lazy wolf, looking for a case to build, gathers together someone else's work and re-jigs it a bit. That's what I suspected. Roa mistakenly put my name atop a Celuien post, and The Ka copied Roa's post in talking about me, not the original. This looked like a lazy attempt to keep my name in the suspicion realm. I changed my mind after seeing Ka's response, which felt sincere to me. I seem to fish around for public support? Yes, of course. I don't want to throw away my vote. Had I not done so yesterday Mac might have tied with Aganzir. It doesn't mean I drop my suspicions; it means that I must wait for another day. Gwath, the spin you put on what is basic voting tactics is remarkable. As for misrepresenting Nerwen's post, I'm not sure I agree with that. What I will agree with is that I got it totally wrong. You say I managed to squeeze a lot from Nerwen's first post, but really I was looking for an archetypal first Wolf post. Nerwen's looked a likely one to me. Vehemently want you to stop looking at Roa and the phantom? I simply said, in one line, not to focus on them. Your suggestion, Gwath, now that's misrepresentation! Well, that's that. I'll look back to see if the phantom offered more. |
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06-07-2008, 03:14 AM | #661 |
Blithe Spirit
Join Date: Jan 2003
Posts: 2,779
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When I try to post, I am being forced to reply to Diamond´s last post. Technological weirdness. I´ve cut the quote, hope the post comes up ok.
I´ve continued to think about this order of wolves created business. Here´s what I´ve come up with. a. The EW wants to create new wolves, but at the same time she is trying to find the GW. So after Night One, when she creates her basic team, her picks are likely to be players she thinks might be the GW. b. We know she hasn't found the GW yet because we have four wolves. c. However, given a choice of candidates, she is also probably scrying people less likely to get lynched the next day. Because if a GW is lynched, she is revealed, the EW finds out anyway. And if her new wolf is lynched, well, she loses a wolf. So bearing that in mind, I will go through the thread and list of players to see if I can come up with likely turned wolves.
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Out went the candle, and we were left darkling |
06-07-2008, 03:22 AM | #662 | ||||||
Leaf-clad Lady
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Good morning, sweethearts - I got to post at last, after an hour of reading... So a couple of things I noticed as I read:
1) Quote:
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3) Quote:
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5) Quote:
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As to who looks BAD. McCaber, Izzy (though she's been more active toDay.. has she?) and morm (on the two previous days his behaviour was mostly "drop in - vote Brinn - drop out") look somewhat sinister, but I'd wish to hear more about them before deciding anything on their innocence or guilt. McCaber at least doesn't look good. tp I'm puzzled about (as ever) but he looks more guilty than innocent at the moment. I'm wary about Legate. Still watching Gwath. Who looks GOOD at the moment? Brinn has been helpful and smart and looks genuine. I have a good feeling about Lhuna. That's all for now, I'm off to have some breakfast. (Wait... it's past midday already... I started reading the thread almost two hours ago...) EDIT: x-ed with Cailín and Lal
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06-07-2008, 03:23 AM | #663 |
Ghost Prince of Cardolan
Join Date: Jun 2005
Location: Lurking in the shadows.
Posts: 711
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Well, that was pretty easy. I know you'll be offended by this, phantom, but I can just dismiss your post. By your standards it's pretty lame.
Eomer is here, occasionally whispering, more often typing, and he does not find you especially innocent. And yeah, he usually does. I like to keep you around because you're a good poster and an interesting villager, but it kind of hurts that you don't see me the same way. One thing you pointed out: because of what you and Nogrod clarified on Day 2, I was fully aware I could vote on the hour exactly. At that time, with all the panic-posting, I needed a minute to really get my thoughts together. Yeah, it was obvious I had to vote for Aganzir but at the time I double-checked. Besides, if I could take an extra second to tease Brinniel with one of these -- -- then I say it was worth it. Well, I've defended myself. I didn't think it was difficult and I don't want to do anymore of it today. I want to assess other villagers later on. |
06-07-2008, 03:27 AM | #664 | |||||||
A Voice That Gainsayeth
Join Date: Nov 2006
Location: In that far land beyond the Sea
Posts: 7,431
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Hey, fellas. Not much time, today is bad time-wise for me, but I hope to be here for the later part of the Day.
I skimmed the therad and then started to read it again, deeply, noting some things, marking down, you know the stuff, as I do. So here we go: Quote:
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Anyway. I am finishing at post #609, don't have time to do anything more now, but I will continue (on where I ended) as soon as I am here. Requests, questions, write up, please, will reply when I'm back. Hope to be back in some six hours at most. EDIT: Oh, just one thing I thought of. I realised it's actually a LOT easier for me to read the thread this Day. That would be in fact alarming - it may mean that we are really becoming smaller numbers in the way that it becomes apparent. But may be also just because Mr._____ is not trying as hard as before, or that I was here for the beginning of the Day, so I don't have to catch up on too much. Anyway, see ya.
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"Should the story say 'he ate bread,' the dramatic producer can only show 'a piece of bread' according to his taste or fancy, but the hearer of the story will think of bread in general and picture it in some form of his own." -On Fairy-Stories |
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06-07-2008, 03:49 AM | #665 | |
Leaf-clad Lady
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Legate - not much time, huh?
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"But some stories, small, simple ones about setting out on adventures or people doing wonders, tales of miracles and monsters, have outlasted all the people who told them, and some of them have outlasted the lands in which they were created." Last edited by A Little Green; 06-07-2008 at 05:42 AM. Reason: I somehow thought I might italicise (or whatever) a part of the post I quoted so I had to underline it instead. |
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06-07-2008, 04:06 AM | #666 |
Blithe Spirit
Join Date: Jan 2003
Posts: 2,779
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I've got to go out now, I'm going to go through the list of players when I get back, applying my criteria. I am quite excited about this theory of mine and I think it could be helpful.
I'm also going to re-read the post-DW discussion from last time when Roa talked about her strategy - to see if I can find something to back up my EW scrying theory. Roa herself could tell us what she thinks (although in her current game incarnation she might be an untrustworthy source...)
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Out went the candle, and we were left darkling |
06-07-2008, 04:41 AM | #667 | |
Reflection of Darkness
Join Date: Jun 2002
Location: Polishing the stars. Well, somebody has to do it; they're looking a little bit dull.
Posts: 2,983
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Anyways...my main reason for this post was to say I just realised I totally forgot about Lommy! I meant to look through her posts and do some analysing when I was writing my last post, but I guess it just completely slipped my mind. It's really late, so I don't have time to do it now...but I do intend to take a better look at her tomorrow. She seemed so innocentish to me at least on Day 1...but now I'm not so sure. And as pointed out, she could've easily started out innocent and have been scryed a wolf later on. As I said, I'll look at it tomorrow... Good-night everyone. I'll be back in several hours.
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Nolite te bastardes carborundorum |
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06-07-2008, 05:04 AM | #668 |
Ghost Prince of Cardolan
Join Date: Nov 2007
Location: Skyrim, again.
Posts: 820
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Alright, I'm done being the "ultimate submarine." I guess my ex-girlfriend Agan being a werewolf is enough to bring back my focus.
Gwath and phantom - very interesting. Now I have to go back and read Cailin's posts again. I think you guys have something there. Brin - you may be right about that. Agan and Lommy are shrewd enough to pull that sort of thing off and arrange it so that whoever survived yesterday would be relatively free of charge.
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Werewolves vs. Fishmen. The battle of the century. |
06-07-2008, 06:24 AM | #669 |
Blithe Spirit
Join Date: Jan 2003
Posts: 2,779
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Ok, so it’s the weekend, and I’ve got time to be helpful. I’ve been thinking like a EW for the past hour or so, to try to catch wolves. It’s important to try to get one toDay, because if the wolves go up to five, it’s going to be hard to catch them all before they kill us.
Night one: three wolves, of which I am pretty sure Aganzir was one. (I don’t think she would have been scried because she was too close to being lynched both days) the two remaining wolves are what I refer to in the analysis as ‘original wolves.’ Night two: Wolf 3: we are looking for someone posting as innocent on Day One and as a wolf yesterDay and toDay. Night three: Wolf 4 who is posting as a wolf for the first time toDay. here’s the analysis. I include myself for the sake of fairness. My assessments of who would be an unlikely wizard are based on various things: RL situation (busy-ness), their WW experience/profile. It is of course not infallible. Little Green, Not sure here. Clearly smart, but never played with her before so don’t know her WW profile. Shastanis Althreduin, Not a particularly likely wizard so not a particularly likely scry, and feels quite innocent today. Isabellkaya, could be ‘original’ wolf, but unlikely scry as not likely wizard Thinlómien, likely wizard, thus likely scry. As I said before, feeling quite worried about her even before this analysis. And what her interaction with Aganzir reminds me of is the Roa/Valier thing last DW, when Valier went after Roa and continued to do so after she was guilty. Perhaps Lommy has been scried, and told to keep going after Aganzir. Nilpaurion Felagund, confusion over start means unlikely wizard, thus unlikely scry. Could be original wolf Eönwë, could be ‘original’ wolf, but unlikely scry as not likely wizard Kath, I really don’t know about Kath – I never do. The ultimate submarine girl. I’d have wanted her for an original wolf if I was a EW, that’s for sure. Satansaloser 2005 , could be ‘original’ wolf, but unlikely scry as not likely wizard (too busy) Rikae, likely wizard, and very likely scry. Has slipped under radar the phantom, likely wizard candidate, but very unlikely scry either night – too close to getting lynched Diamond 18, a likely scry. However, she’s being very helpful today, so I’m inclined to think she’s not evil. Cailín, I still think that she was innocent on the first day, but I think that although she’s currently protesting busy-ness, she’d definitely be seen as a potential wizard and so a very likely scry Lhunardawen, Possible wizard, possible scry. But she feels quite innocent right now. Durelin, She’s felt less guilty to me than she did last time I played with her (when I correctly guessed she was a wolf) but she could have been scried last night. Roa_Aoife, Now, this is a puzzle. Unlike phantom, she hasn’t been a likely lynch candidate, so she could be someone a wizard would want to scry. Would she be a wizard twice in a row? If she’s innocent, why is she still alive? Brinniel, likely scry – particularly for Night 3. but again, she’s been helpful all through the game and still seems helpful today, so I’m inclined to think her innocent. Legate of Amon Lanc, likely wizard candidate, but unlikely scry - too many votes on Day 2 to be Night 3 wolf Lalaith could be ‘original’ wolf, but unlikely scry as not likely wizard Mormegil, normally I’d say a likely scry because likely wizard, but a wizard Morm would surely be more active so I’m not sure... Celuien, could be ‘original’ wolf, but unlikely scry as not likely wizard Gwathagor, Not sure here. Never played with him before so don’t know his WW profile. But I think his analysis of Cailin today is interesting and knowing her status would provide more info on Gwath. McCaber, could be ‘original’ wolf, (in fact I suspect him of being so) but unlikely scry as not likely wizard. So the upshot of this analysis is that there are a whole heap of people who could be original wolves. But if we focus on the new wolves, it gets easier. I conclude that Cailin, Lommy, Rikae, Roa, Durelin are the most likely candidates for wolves 3 & 4. Little Green is also a possibility.
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Out went the candle, and we were left darkling |
06-07-2008, 06:25 AM | #670 | |
Blithe Spirit
Join Date: Jan 2003
Posts: 2,779
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One other thing:
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It’s quite possible on the other hand that the EW herself might vote for a wolf to hide her own identity. Its my belief that she she’s hiding her own identity from her wolves – and she’s bound to have some wolves that are likely to be scried by the GW.
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Out went the candle, and we were left darkling |
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06-07-2008, 06:30 AM | #671 |
Blithe Spirit
Join Date: Jan 2003
Posts: 2,779
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Joining the ranks of the triple posters....
the reason I spent so much time on this, is because the 'who was wolved when' method worked for me before - eventually, I managed to spot most of the wolves in the last DW game. Not that I was listened to...sigh.... Di and Eomer will know what I'm talking about....
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Out went the candle, and we were left darkling |
06-07-2008, 06:41 AM | #672 | |
Ghost Prince of Cardolan
Join Date: Jun 2005
Location: Lurking in the shadows.
Posts: 711
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I've been re-reading the Lommy/Aganzir stuff and I find it quite interesting. At the risk of sounding stupid, I'm not quite sure why Aganzir got so many votes in the first 2 days. I mean, well done everyone with rounding on her, great result and all that! But I'm curious how we got there. I don't find what she posted all that suspicious. Her argument against Lommy here looks good to me. Which raises doubts in my mind (which I know others among you already had) about Lommy's part in the lynching. I also don't understand why Lommy posted: STOP TRUSTING MY JUDGEMENT ON AGANZIR!!!!!!!!!! Or something similar. Weird thing to say. Very eager to direct the accusations but unwilling to take too much responsibility? This often happens to those who bag a wolf, though. Instead of congratulations you get suspected! That's why I'll be watching her. (Lommy will now also realise that her dynamic with Cailín has been altered due to the influence of Eomer, who ALWAYS suspects her. ) |
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06-07-2008, 06:50 AM | #673 | |
Hauntress of the Havens
Join Date: Mar 2003
Location: IN it, but not OF it
Posts: 2,538
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I should have known. Wait - what big bro? Father, why are you haunting this village? |
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06-07-2008, 06:52 AM | #674 |
Mellifluous Maia
Join Date: Aug 2006
Location: A glade open to the stars, deep in Nan Elmoth
Posts: 3,489
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äääääääääääääääööööööööööööööööööööööööööö
Downloaded a program to do that even on my American keyboard. Lalaith said I'm a very likely scry, and I agree. I'm sure the people who matter know what I am by now.I really am not this great player everybody thinks I am, and the fact that everybody thinks so makes me more prominent than I rightly should be. I would not give a role to me - you don't get the skill to match the hype - but I don't doubt I've been scried. What else can I say? Oh, well, I'm not feeling any better about Legate. I had the feeling he was trying to impersonate a gifted the other day, for what it's worth. Nilp said something about a "smart EW", but from what's been happenign so far, I daresay that is not the type of EW we have. Hear that, EW? I think you're dumb! |
06-07-2008, 07:16 AM | #675 |
Ghost Prince of Cardolan
Join Date: Jun 2005
Location: Lurking in the shadows.
Posts: 711
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Lalaith, I think you over-estimate the powers of Roa, great though they may be. I'm not exactly startled she's still alive. Having said that, the thought did come to me today at lunch ''Fit aboot Roa?''
I'll have a look at her later. Busy now. Also want to get a feel on players I haven't yet considered, mostly because they've been too quite. Morm, Nilp, etc. |
06-07-2008, 07:20 AM | #676 | ||
Hauntress of the Havens
Join Date: Mar 2003
Location: IN it, but not OF it
Posts: 2,538
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Ma belle-mère:
Quote:
Last edited by Lhunardawen; 06-07-2008 at 07:30 AM. Reason: formatting issues |
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06-07-2008, 07:29 AM | #677 |
Hauntress of the Havens
Join Date: Mar 2003
Location: IN it, but not OF it
Posts: 2,538
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Oh, snap.
The above post is Nilp's.
Toinx. |
06-07-2008, 07:30 AM | #678 | |
Mellifluous Maia
Join Date: Aug 2006
Location: A glade open to the stars, deep in Nan Elmoth
Posts: 3,489
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Still, Kath and Lhuna are both excellent choices for wolves. The EW may just want to go and change one of them toNight as a fourth wolf. I would very highly recommend it. Well, maybe not Lhuna, as she dislikes being a wolf, and so it's kind of mean to make her one - oh, yeah, though, this is the evil wizard we're talking about. So that kind of just sails right past "mean". |
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06-07-2008, 07:32 AM | #679 |
Mellifluous Maia
Join Date: Aug 2006
Location: A glade open to the stars, deep in Nan Elmoth
Posts: 3,489
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Wow, as if the game weren't complicated enough, we've got two people posting under the names of others. Good thing I'm not still using Mac's computer (amusing as that might be).
I'll go back to my previous post and change the quote attribution accordingly (before Cailin threatens to vote for me). |
06-07-2008, 08:13 AM | #680 |
Scion of The Faithful
Join Date: Apr 2003
Location: The brink, where hope and despair are akin. [The Philippines]
Posts: 5,312
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Glad to be back.
Out-of-body experiences are plain weird.
Enedwaith, Rikae is just acting so differently from before. Reminds me of a certain Valier in another Wizard-infested village . . .
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フェンリス鴨 (Fenrisu Kamo) The plot, cut, defeated. I intend to copy this sig forever - so far so good...
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