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#1 | |
Eidolon of a Took
Join Date: Sep 2002
Location: my own private fantasy world
Posts: 3,460
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As I see it, Agan had one of three motivations: Lead us to believe that she believes Lommy is the EW or a Wolf and was sacrificing her, much to her disgruntlement. She wants to create the appearance thereof, and make us suspect an innocent Lommy, Legate, and Brinn. She wants to create the appearance of the appearance thereof, thus protecting an evil Lommy, Legate, and Brinn from suspicion. My conclusion: I am sad that I cannot think of a way to work "the appearance of the appearance of the appearance thereof" into a scenario. Also, I am somewhat surprised that an innocent Lommy would be allowed to live today. Isn't she a clear choice for a wolf kill, considering Agan's death makes her seem so innocent? IF she is innocent. If she is not, it's all so convenient. It's also convenient if she was innocent but instead of being mauled, was scried and converted to evil, because she was going to look so innocent today, due to actual innocence that no longer applies! *jabs finger in the air triumphantly* The words of the day, children, are "innocent" and "appearance." Thereof. But then, I STILL suspect Lommy of Wizardry. She could have sacrificed Agan, and Agan could be none the wiser about her actual role, thus rendering Agan's comment moot. Despite what TP says about the folly of the EW sacrificing wolves, we've seen it done successfully in the past and I wouldn't put it past Lommy to be going by that model. Oh the possibilities.
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All shall be rather fond of me and suffer from mild depression. |
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#2 | |
The Sweetest Spoiler
Join Date: Nov 2007
Location: from beneath you it giggles incessantly
Posts: 5,789
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Quick addition to this, Di. Remember people can be UNscried as well. That might account for a few things.
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"My heart always cowers behind the defense of my wit." Friendship is two pals munching on a well-cooked face together. Fenris bookworm.
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#3 | |||
Scion of The Faithful
Join Date: Apr 2003
Location: The brink, where hope and despair are akin. [The Philippines]
Posts: 5,312
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So, of the three remaining persons who voted for Mac, only Lhuna had some sort of evidence to show. Kath didn't vote the DAY before, and Di voted for Nerwen for personal reasons. Hmmm . . . were they Wolves ordered to lie low on DAY 1, and then ordered to get Mac lynched on DAY 2? Agan, a known Wolf, did vote for Mac, too (although we could argue that she's just trying to save her pelt.) More later, must eat lunch. (Perfectly ordinary meat sandwich.)
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フェンリス鴨 (Fenrisu Kamo) The plot, cut, defeated. I intend to copy this sig forever - so far so good...
Last edited by Nilpaurion Felagund; 06-07-2008 at 12:04 AM. Reason: Kath didn't vote the NIGHT before > Kath didn't vote the **DAY** before |
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#4 |
Scion of The Faithful
Join Date: Apr 2003
Location: The brink, where hope and despair are akin. [The Philippines]
Posts: 5,312
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CRAZINESS!!! Spare me thy madness!!!!!
Must have blood blood blood blood blood . . . Lynch me! LYNCH MEEEEE!!!!!! ÷÷Nilpau . . . As you've noticed, I used the 'division' sign, not the 'plus' sign. ![]()
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フェンリス鴨 (Fenrisu Kamo) The plot, cut, defeated. I intend to copy this sig forever - so far so good...
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#5 | |
Werewolf Psychic
Join Date: Apr 2007
Location: In fire, water, earth, and air. But mostly water.
Posts: 2,832
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So.... we should divide by you twice? ![]()
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Shasta– ... However, if he's innocent his famous clairvoyant powers must be taking the week off. Meanwhile, the Night-kills have been awfully effective– almost like we're dealing with a psychic wolf... - Nerwen, WW LXXV |
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#6 |
Scion of The Faithful
Join Date: Apr 2003
Location: The brink, where hope and despair are akin. [The Philippines]
Posts: 5,312
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This is Lhuna.
Apparently, Nilp wants us to divide him. That is actually worse than simply wanting to be lynched. I wonder why we never thought that the division sign is more appropriate for making lynch votes.
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フェンリス鴨 (Fenrisu Kamo) The plot, cut, defeated. I intend to copy this sig forever - so far so good...
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#7 |
Scion of The Faithful
Join Date: Apr 2003
Location: The brink, where hope and despair are akin. [The Philippines]
Posts: 5,312
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You chaps should be asking whether I want to be divided along Adam's line, or Alice's.
Of course, I can be divided by seven.. </shameless self-promotion> Okay, let me eat, before I really vote for myself. P.S. <3 Dury and her shamelessly letting others promote her. Will you be my mistress? ![]() |
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#8 |
Hauntress of the Havens
Join Date: Mar 2003
Location: IN it, but not OF it
Posts: 2,538
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A few thoughts:
~ Legate is the most likely recipient of my vote toDay. Been reading on some of yesterDay's posts (thanks to Nilp's handy-dandy chart! who knew he could actually be reliable?), but I'll come up with my reasons. Later. ~ sally, McCaber, Cailin, and Rikae are now in my suspicion list. Will also elaborate later. But for now: sally because she's distracting. McCaber for being a submarine Cailin feels slippery. Mummy, this isn't the you I'm used to seeing. Rikae...this is tough. I don't like to think that she's taking advantage of her marital connexion to the late Mac to parade the fact that she thought he was innocent and berating those who found him otherwise (which includes me, unfortunately), but that's the feeling I get. Maybe this is a widow's distress, but isn't it too much? ~ I'm currently entertaining the idea that Agan's lynching might be premeditated. I'm trying to work out how that might fit with Mac revealing his gift. Anyway, I still think the phantom might be a wizard. There might be more to his 'threat' towards me yesterDay than meets the eye. |
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#9 | |||||||||||||
Reflection of Darkness
Join Date: Jun 2002
Location: Polishing the stars. Well, somebody has to do it; they're looking a little bit dull.
Posts: 2,983
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Call me crazy, but I really think we should not come around suspicions only on the assumption that two wolves may know each other. They could...but we can't know that for sure, so I just see it as faulty reasoning to say someone looks furry they look like they might be a wolf with someone else. Get what I'm saying? I only skimmed through tp's analysis of Cailin, but I do want a better look later...
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Nolite te bastardes carborundorum |
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#10 | |
Eidolon of a Took
Join Date: Sep 2002
Location: my own private fantasy world
Posts: 3,460
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This brings up that screenshot. And if you want a list of a certain person's posts (all of 'em) you click on the number of posts they've made. Makes reviewing a single person's posts, like, way easier, man. Also, regarding nameless possession. I thought she meant that the quote in question did not have a name attached to it. Like the one I just did for you.
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All shall be rather fond of me and suffer from mild depression. |
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#11 |
Eidolon of a Took
Join Date: Sep 2002
Location: my own private fantasy world
Posts: 3,460
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I love Nilp's formatting. It's a thing of beauty. I'll fight against anyone who tries to lynch him, for just this reason.
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All shall be rather fond of me and suffer from mild depression. |
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#12 |
Eidolon of a Took
Join Date: Sep 2002
Location: my own private fantasy world
Posts: 3,460
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By the by, a look at the posting counts surprised me. Shasta has the second most number of posts (behind, well do I even have to say?) yet I don't think he's garnered near the attention.
Hmmmm. I may have to break down and review his posts. Cheerful killer that he is.
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All shall be rather fond of me and suffer from mild depression. |
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#13 |
Beloved Shadow
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I just walked in the door. First, I shall post my case.
Then, I will catch up on what everyone's said today.
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the phantom has posted.
This thread is now important. |
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#14 | |
Werewolf Psychic
Join Date: Apr 2007
Location: In fire, water, earth, and air. But mostly water.
Posts: 2,832
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Shasta– ... However, if he's innocent his famous clairvoyant powers must be taking the week off. Meanwhile, the Night-kills have been awfully effective– almost like we're dealing with a psychic wolf... - Nerwen, WW LXXV |
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#15 |
Shade with a Blade
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This may or may not be helpful to anyone else besides myself. That's OK.
![]() CAILIN Post #51 Recommends we try to catch both WWs and EW. Suggests that the EW will try to scry those who the GW would not and those who are less “illustrious”, but then disregards this and all such theories as useless speculation. I believe her position on speculation does an about-face later on. Post #58 States again that she imagines the EW would select wolves from those the GW would be unlikely to scry. Posts list of Likely Wolves. This is composed of Lalaith, Izzy, Aganzir (good call), Herself, Kitanna, Kath, Legate, Eonwe, Volo, Mormegil, and Lhuna. Her list of Likely Innocents: Lommy, TP, Diamond18, Macalaure, Rikae, Roa, Nilp, Brinn, Durelin. Post #63 Says that Volo’s “we wolves” was probably a mistake and not a wolf slip. Fair enough. Post #78 Now says it’s worthwhile to speculate regarding who would apply for Wizard positions, and who would be chosen as a wolf. Is this not a contradiction of what she said earlier in #51? Post #96 Responds to Aganzir’s suspicion. Defends speculation again. Post #101 THE Ka is at the top of Cailin’s suspect list, based on an unfortunate misquoting by Roa which Ka perpetuated. Cailin’s suspicion is understandable at this point, I suppose, as there is little else to go on in Day 1. Post #105 This is the first post where anyone really goes after Nerwen. Cailin takes on Nerwen’s first post: “This is a very suspicious first post. Nerwen takes a long time to do nothing but criticise other people's ideas and post signs indicating potential wolvish behaviour. She's also giving wolves a nice guide on how not to act. I can't see what she hopes to achieve with this, other than to look helpful and serious in the eyes of the casual reader.” It seems a stretch to get all this out of Nerwen’s post. Nerwen’s criticisms regarding methods of finding an EW or WW seemed legitimate to me, and not particularly long. Also, it seems like a gross misrepresentation on Cailin’s part to say that Nerwen’s guide to the behavior of werewolves is more helpful to the wolves than it is to the innocents. Post #108 In response to Nerwen, states again that it’s unnecessary to state common wolf tactics, because we know them already. Post #123 Dislikes Nerwen even more for voting her following their disagreement, but say that she’s still thinking about voting Ka for “carelessly copying Roa’s misquote” about her (Cailin). It seems to me that she’s fishing for a bandwagon, either Nerwen or Ka, but could care less which one goes down. Post #127 Points out that TP seems to be playing the role of villager as a neutral one. Also suggests that TP might be a bluffing wizard, but doubts he is a wolf. Post #165 Votes Nerwen here (beginning of Nerwen bandwagon), because she doesn’t have any other substantial suspicions. Restates her accusations from #105: Nerwen merely spends a long time criticizing others in order to gain a position on “the pedestal of sense.” THE Ka seems to have disappeared inexplicably from the suspicion-radar by this point… Post #315 Analyzes Volo. No, that’s inaccurate. Really, she just sums up all his posts without actually interpreting them. A lot of work, but not much help. Trying to achieve a spot on the good old pedestal of sense? Also sums up Kitanna’s posts. Apologizes to Nerwen, because she didn’t think everyone would follow her vote the way they did. She was flabbergasted, in fact. Oops. Claims to have a “crackpot theory” regarding someone else who looks “mighty suspicious”, but won’t reveal it yet. Let’s see if she does! Post #337 Acknowledges that there’s not much to gain from looking at Volo and Kitanna. Recommends that we ignore the Roa/TP fight, as they’re likely “two proud ordos going at it.” Post #359 Suggests that sally is way to appease and make friends. Finds her suspicious for this, and, I think, legitimately points out that sally voted for TP the Day before, but is now joking about with him, which seems a curious switching of attitudes. Post #371 Jumps on my statement that I think either Roa or TP is bad, and finds my reasoning odd. I didn’t actually give any reasoning, but she suggests possible reasons I might have, and which she finds unpersuasive. She makes me sound pretty bad, though. Maybe she really doesn’t want us inspecting Roa vs. TP. If the case, I doubt her motivation is good. Post #412 Announces that Diamond seems less than innocent, and runs off to take a closer look. Post #416 Can’t find a single interesting point that Diamond has made. I agree, actually. By this point, Diamond has been entertaining (keep it up!), but not especially helpful. Cailin thinks Diamond may be a baddie hiding in the open. I think this is legitimate. Post #434 Not sure who to vote for, but is suspicious of Sally, Brinniel, Diamond, and me. Post #466 Concedes that Ka’s accidental misquote may have been an honest mistake, but maintains that it’s not a bad cause for suspicion. I think she’s wrong about this; an accidental copying of a misquote is an awfully flimsy basis for a vote. Denies jumping on Nerwen, but I really don’t think you can describe the situation any other way. They definitely jumped on each other, though Nerwen’s post addressed multiple people, and only mentioned Cailin briefly. Post #480 In response to Brinniel: says it would be as correct to say that she jumped on Nerwen as to say that Nerwen jumped on her. She’s right about this. Also, Cailin doesn’t like what she calls Brinniel’s single-mindedness regarding the who-jumped-on-whom issue. Post #498 Creeped out by McCaber. Wants to keep Lalaith alive. Uneasy about TP. Curious about but hesitant to vote for Brinniel. Asks if anyone wants to vote for sally or me. Looks to me like she’s fishing for a bandwagon again. TP offers to take her up on the offer and vote for me (in post #504), but seems to think it’s not logistically feasible. McCaber suggests that it could be done. Post #514 Wants to vote for me, because I’m creepier than the other candidates. I thought McCaber was the creepy one. Not anymore, I suppose, since he’s willing to support her anti-Gwath campaign. Post #526 Cailin says: “Nay, I know people are watching. I'm testing to see if there is support. I don't want to throw away my vote.” I’m not sure who she means this is reference to. Post #532 Disappointed that no one (i.e. not enough people to get one of us killed) wanted to vote against sally or gwath. Post #537 Votes Aganzir. This is the final and deciding vote for Aganzir. If Cailin is a wolf, then she's likely voting off the Safe Votes For Wolves list (if it exists). So, Cailin does some really bad stuff. She start the Nerwen bandwagon, bases her suspicion of Ka on a copying of an accidental misquote, makes weird apparent contradictions, seems to fish around for public support before voting, misrepresents aspects of Nerwen's posts, and vehemently wants us to not inspect the Roa/TP debate. But she also casts the vote that gets Aganzir killed, which means that either she is a wolf who decided to risk sacrificing her fellow in order to build her own reputation, an innocent who made some mistakes early on, or a wolf who got scried over somewhere in between Nerwen's death and Aganzir's death. I have to say that based on the frequently weak, exaggerated, or non-existent reasoning of her posts, coupled with her tendency to drop suspects once it's clear they won't be lynched, I really don't like the way Cailin looks right now. However, whether I vote her or not will depend largely on what happens toDay. I mean to take closer looks at legate and tp as well. EDIT: Crossed with just about everyone. This beast of a post took me several hours, and I feel rather bad putting you all through it.
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Stories and songs. Last edited by Gwathagor; 06-06-2008 at 11:41 PM. |
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#16 | ||
Beloved Shadow
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*sigh*
The case that I wrote up earlier... it's not here. I can't find it. My computer ate it! ![]() But then I just refreshed my window, and I see that Gwath has made some of the very same points that I was wanting to! ![]() Real quick I'll add a couple things. I'm not quite sure how to say this, but.... Cailin acts in a way that reminds me of the way I'd act were I a WW a couple times, and she comes to judgements that I don't think she'd make as an innocent. It's hard to explain. It's just like everything she says just rings WW alarms for me. Lommy, remember that WerePenguin game? Remember the way Boro and Ang set off my alarms from the get-go. That's how I'm feeling with Cailin. Yes, yes, I know it's just "feelings" rather than hard evidence, but the fact is we are a bit short on hard evidence considering we don't know who the EW is and it is doubtful the WWs know the EW or even each other. Feelings are the best thing I have. All right, anyway.... On Day 1, when discussing possible WW choices for the EW, she said this- Quote:
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She's seen me operate plenty. And Eomer is right there with her, and he's seen me quite a bit as well. If she isn't sure of me I'd bet that he's busy whispering "tp's innocent" into her ear. I know that seems dumb, but that's just what I'm thinking. And then she holds her vote later on Day 2 and starts shopping around to lynch someone else. Did she know that Agan was a WW? It's possible. But either way, it just doesn't seem like a Cailin move. I'd come out and ask "Hey, you guys wanna lynch so-and-so instead?" but it didn't feel right coming from Cailin. And then Mac reveals, and she says "I suppose I should trust Mac", but then waits till 6:00 to vote. What was she waiting on? It takes less than 10 seconds to post "+ + Aganzir". You'd think she would've been in an outright panic if she was truly innocent! "Oh great! Mac's the Ranger! It's up to me! The deadline is almost here!" Anyway, I'd really like to lynch her. This is the first time I've done multiple read-throughs on someone and gotten a consistent Wolfish feeling for them. And to top it off, Cel had a "gut feeling" about Cailin yesterday. And you know- I think Cel has good instincts, and I think she is innocent in this game. And then there's Brin, who I've been feeling as innocent for quite a while. She listed her prime suspects yesterday as Agan and Cailin. She was right once. I think she might be right again.
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the phantom has posted.
This thread is now important. |
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#17 | |
Werewolf Psychic
Join Date: Apr 2007
Location: In fire, water, earth, and air. But mostly water.
Posts: 2,832
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Shasta– ... However, if he's innocent his famous clairvoyant powers must be taking the week off. Meanwhile, the Night-kills have been awfully effective– almost like we're dealing with a psychic wolf... - Nerwen, WW LXXV Last edited by Shastanis Althreduin; 06-07-2008 at 12:04 AM. Reason: X'd with Di |
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