The Shadow of the Past - Gandalf's knowledge

[Huinesoron]

Originally Posted by JeyEn

So far we agreed on that Gandalf made almost perilous mistake, right? And why didn't go to Elrond for advice? I think, after all, he wanted nobody to know - words spread around quickly and maybe Sauron could hear that some hobbit in Shire has one of the Great Rings.

Interestingly, the Silmarillion gives a completely different angle on this whole issue: Gandalf knew exactly what was going on, had discussed it at length with Elrond, and was just straight up lying to Frodo.

Originally Posted by "Silmarillion: Of the Rings of Power

And returning to Elrond [from Dol Guldur, Gandalf] said:

'True, alas, is our guess. This is not one of the Ulairi, as many have long supposed. It is Sauron himself who has taken shape again and now grows apace; and he is gathering again all the Rings to his hand; and he seeks ever for news of the One, and of the Heirs of Isildur, if they live still on earth.’

[...] ‘Yet the One was lost,’ said Mithrandir, ‘and while it still lies hid, we can master the Enemy, if we gather our strength and tarry not too long.’

Then the White Council was summoned; and Mithrandir urged them to swift deeds, but Curunir spoke against him, and counselled them to wait yet and to watch.

‘For I believe not,’ said he, ‘that the One will ever be found again in Middle-earth. Into Anduin it fell, and long ago, I deem, it was rolled to the Sea. There it shall lie until the end, when all this world is broken and the deeps are removed.’

Therefore naught was done at that time, though Elrond’s heart misgave him, and he said to Mithrandir: ‘Nonetheless I forebode that the One will yet be found, and then war will arise again, and in that war this Age will be ended. Indeed in a second darkness it will end, unless some strange chance deliver us that my eyes cannot see.’

[After the Council was summoned again, Gandalf said:] ‘It is not needed that the Ring should be found, for while it abides on earth and is not unmade, still the power that it holds will live, and Sauron will grow and have hope. The might of the Elves and the Elf-friends is less now than of old. Soon he will be too strong for you, even without the Great Ring; for he rules the Nine, and of the Seven he has recovered three. We must strike.’

[After Sauron was driven back to Mordor:] Now by fortune and his vigilance Mithrandir first learned of the Ring, ere Sauron had news of it; yet he was dismayed and in doubt. For too great was the evil power of this thing for any of the Wise to wield, unless like Curunir he wished himself to become a tyrant and a dark lord in his turn; but neither could it be concealed from Sauron for ever, nor could it be unmade by the craft of the Elves. Therefore with the help of the Dunedain of the North Mithrandir set a watch upon the land of the Periannath and bided his time.

So Gandalf knew where all of the other Great Rings were, figured out what Bilbo had (probably when he noticed he'd stopped aging), and decided the best plan was to lock down the Shire and bide his time. Which is pretty much what JeyEn suggested.

And I think that final passage shows why he didn't move the thing somewhere safe: any of the Wise who were around the Ring for significant periods would inevitably be corrupted and take it. Galadriel spent about five minutes with it and nearly went full Maleficent; Saruman would have had it the instant he next visited Rivendell. As long as Sauron didn't find it (and it's not like he could sense it at long distances, or feel it being used or anything), the Ring was safe in the Shire.

My guess is that he was waiting for Aragorn to grow up. Arathorn was dead by the time the Ring came to light, and if there was to be war, an experienced adult Heir would be needed to bring Gondor into the fight. The hunt for Gollum thus becomes Aragorn's final exam: as a ranger, as a hero, as a diplomat, and as someone trusted with the greatest secret of the Third Age, the location of the One Ring.

hS