TIG CXVII: DEAD Thread: By the Waters of Tarn Aeluin

[Galadriel55]

Originally Posted by Formendacil

By the by, G55: it's a moot point since we're probably waiting till nigh the deadline, but HOW will our vote register? I.e. will it only appear in the Day-end narration or will our ghostly avatar speak like a voice from the grave as soon as we have a settled vote here? I assume the former--i.e., we can't influence the game by appearing early and firmly (again, not relevant now, but might be on a future Day).

The Dead vote will appear at the end of the Day at DL, either right before or even together with the narration. Basically, it will appear as the very last vote of the Day.

[Formendacil]

Thanks, G55!



On topic, I kind of like the Morsul theory:

Originally Posted by Morsul the Dark

So this is flimsy but I’ll toss it out there Lottie gave me a hard time for not having reads on two people but in Post 123 gave Sally a pass for the like four people she had no read on in her list.

This with her saving Hui

My very flimsy theory entirely contingent on WolfLottie is Sally Lottie Huin pack

Xed Sallyx2

I can't decide if Lottie was suspicious yesterDay or not, but I really did feel like she'd whiplashed over my preference for ferretting out the quiet ones, and--granting I haven't played with her a lot--she does seem a bit off from the one game I do remember, when she proved innocent. And this theory would jive with my Sally suspicions. Not as sure about Hui, but his playing style is "naturally suspicious"," so it's not impossible he's wolven and as the other bandwaggon, it makes some sense that if there was a concerted effort kill you (Greenie) INSTEAD of one of their own, then Hui is the obvious candidate.

[Formendacil]

Slotting this theory into the vote-list, it could fit:

Kath --> Morsul
Greenie --> Pitch
Morsul --> Hui
Lommy --> Hui
Legate --> Greenie
Hui --> Greenie
Form --> sally
Boro --> Lottie
Lottie --> Greenie
sally --> no one
Pitch --> Hui

Soriman missed the voting

Hui was the first waggon (i.e. the first lynchee to two votes--and first-to-two as Hui wanted to know [a coded message to packmates?] is almost more like 2.5 votes). The very first vote thereafter is Legate for Greenie and given how the day went, it was easy for Hui to latch on: Greenie is not a member of this possible pack and it doesn't lead back to the pack.

Then I vote and so does Boro and we each vote someone new--which, yes, doesn't make us look great, but it's also totally early enough that someone else could have hopped aboard either Sally or Lottie and made it a three-way tie with Hui losing the draw. Lottie votes to save the pack--i.e. Hui and it's a done deal. Sally leaves no trail and endangers no one.

So... the theory has nothing in the voting record to contradict it. It could explain going after me. Even a clue might be an in-joke for a our mods--maybe all three wolves got a vote!

On the other hand...

[A Little Green]

I like your thinking. I'm wondering about the Lottie-Sally pairing too, and Huin does fit in with them. I doubt it can really be that easy (though would be fabulous if it were), but I'd be happy for us to vote for any of them toDay.

I'll still catch up with the other thread and see if anything else catches my eye.

[Formendacil]

Originally Posted by Huinesoron

Votes so far

Morsul > Sally
Sally > Lottie
Kath > Sally [2]
Soriman > Lottie [2]

I think lynching a WolfSally would shed a lot of light, but I also think it would be an easy lynch for the wolves to jump on board because of the "SeerForm" thing. Also, per my last, I have no read on Sally as wolfish except for "SeerForm" logic.

Interrupting myself because Soriman is here and... voting for Lottie with no reasoning other than them being my most likely packmate (but not voting me). Um... what?

But it's nearly 10pm and I'm too tired to stay up and see more. :-/ I think Lottie is likely innocent, and Sally is a coin-toss, so I'm going to put in a vote for my 'most likely wolf' per my last post:

++BOROMIR88

hS

I gotta say... if the Morsul-theory is accurate, this post would sure fit like a glove.

I agree with your last post: while it looks good, surely it's too easy. I feel like there should be a Law about situations like this--Saucepan's Law or something: if it sees to have been uncovered too easily, it's either completely true or it's totally, horrifically wrong.

Hoping for the former option here, obviously.

[Formendacil]

Adding on to this Morsul theory... is it too crazy to suggest that Soriman could be a really lucky first-time Seer?

The whole thing feels a bit like Ptolomaic cosmology: it's getting to be a bit convoluted and there's no proving it's TRUE, but it coheres nicely.

[A Little Green]

Okay, so I caught up with the Living and now my brain hurts. (It's also midnight here, which doesn't help.) I'm getting very weird vibes off both Boro and Legate at the moment, but I still think we should stick with voting for one of the five who got votes yesterDay - that is, Lottie, Huin, Pitch, Sally, and Morsul. I also still agree with you that Lottie, Huin and Sally look the shiftiest out of those five.

That said, Lottie has been unusually touchy over being suspected, especially toDay but she exhibited some signs of it already yesterDay (I can't remember exactly what this was, but she started talking about self-preservation when she'd got one vote and no one else seemed very suspicious of her). This makes me think possible Gifted as well as possible wolf, so I might want to give her a pass toDay. Besides, the village might kill her anyway.

The tally at the moment looks like
Morsul > Sally
Sally > Lottie
Kath > Sally [2]
Soriman > Lottie [2]
Huin > Boro

I'd be happy going for either Huin or Sally. Huin has perhaps done more dodgy things (well, he has done more in general so maybe that's to be expected), and I think his lynch would tell us more about others. He also isn't a candidate at the moment, so voting for him might serve as a nudge for the village to actually take a closer look at him. Sally, on the other hand, has been weirdly fixated on Lottie toDay, and does have a possible connection (however feeble) to last Night's kill. She also made a weird comment about Pitch somewhere in there that seemed to have been made from a standpoint of knowing Huin is innocent (although I lost the quote now and might have just read it carelessly). It's possibly also worth considering that since Sally's posted relatively little, her lynch arguably wouldn't tell us as much as Huin's. Then again, based on the current tally, she is the one out of those two who actually does stand a chance of getting lynched.

[Galadriel55]

As I sympathize with Dead Threads very much, I am almost more excited to see who you guys are gonna vote for than what the Living pick.

++Brinn!

...No?...

[Formendacil]

Originally Posted by Galadriel55

As I sympathize with Dead Threads very much, I am almost more excited to see who you guys are gonna vote for than what the Living pick.

++Brinn!

...No?...

I nearly freaked out that I'd posted on the wrong thread, then I realised that:

A. We have a Cobblermod.

B. She can post on the Dead Thread.

[Formendacil]

Originally Posted by A Little Green

I'd be happy going for either Huin or Sally. Huin has perhaps done more dodgy things (well, he has done more in general so maybe that's to be expected), and I think his lynch would tell us more about others. He also isn't a candidate at the moment, so voting for him might serve as a nudge for the village to actually take a closer look at him. Sally, on the other hand, has been weirdly fixated on Lottie toDay, and does have a possible connection (however feeble) to last Night's kill. She also made a weird comment about Pitch somewhere in there that seemed to have been made from a standpoint of knowing Huin is innocent (although I lost the quote now and might have just read it carelessly). It's possibly also worth considering that since Sally's posted relatively little, her lynch arguably wouldn't tell us as much as Huin's. Then again, based on the current tally, she is the one out of those two who actually does stand a chance of getting lynched.

Huin works for me--even if he's not Wolven, he's probably at the nexus of something there--you might be right about Lottie's jumpiness = Gifted, though I think if there's a Kill toNight and she's alive toMorrow, she looks worse than just about anyone. Huin also probably beats out Sally as a message from the Dead goes, since they'll think "well, the Dead are 50% Form and he had no better ideas."

[A Little Green]

Originally Posted by Form

Adding on to this Morsul theory... is it too crazy to suggest that Soriman could be a really lucky first-time Seer?

This would be fantastic!

I looked up the weird Sally quote I was talking about -

Originally Posted by Sally

What some people seem to forget about Pitch and I is that we were packmates in the last game, so I feel like I have a pretty good read on him solely based on that. Besides, and innocent Pitch would be aggravated by someone no voting, while this would obviously have benefited a wolf Pitch because he knew one of Greenie or Hui would die, and if he were a wolf with Hui, he wouldn't have pitched (har har) him for lynching in the first place.

What bothers me here is the underlying assumption that Huin and I were both innocent, and the bit about "if he were a wolf with Hui" looks both like an afterthought and not necessarily logical (as wolves do sometimes pitch their fellows for lynching). This is either wolfish knowledge of people's roles showing through the cracks, or just me going too much into semantics.

[A Little Green]

Originally Posted by Form

Huin works for me--even if he's not Wolven, he's probably at the nexus of something there--you might be right about Lottie's jumpiness = Gifted, though I think if there's a Kill toNight and she's alive toMorrow, she looks worse than just about anyone. Huin also probably beats out Sally as a message from the Dead goes, since they'll think "well, the Dead are 50% Form and he had no better ideas."

Sadly that's probably true. I do agree with you about Lottie too. If she survives both toDay and tomorrow Night, she's definitely a wolf.

[Formendacil]

Originally Posted by A Little Green

This is either wolfish knowledge of people's roles showing through the cracks, or just me going too much into semantics.

Could always be a case of my beloved "both/and."


Huin it is then?

I'll be around till the DL, so I can post it "officially" pending some major mic-drop.

[Huinesoron]

I did not wait until tomorrow.

I don’t really know what was going on in the voting out there. At least me being dead makes the Night 2 Tidbit more informative, because there's less people there to be that 'at least one wolf'? I'm more inclined to it being Pitch or Sally than the other two.

I love the idea that Soriman could be a very out-of-their-depth Seer.

I do object to this, though:

Originally Posted by Formendacil

Hui was the first waggon (i.e. the first lynchee to two votes--and first-to-two as Hui wanted to know [a coded message to packmates?] is almost more like 2.5 votes).

Using the Admin thread for gameplay like that would be cheating. If I were a wolf and had wanted to use the question as a message, I would have asked it in the Game thread.

hS

[Formendacil]

Originally Posted by Huinesoron

I do object to this, though:



Using the Admin thread for gameplay like that would be cheating. If I were a wolf and had wanted to use the question as a message, I would have asked it in the Game thread.

hS

Fair.

In my defence, I only remembered THAT you had asked, not on which thread, and it was the fact of asking that stuck out to me.

I do wonder if you've been railroaded--I mean, I obviously think it most likely, but I have flashbacks to Last Game™, when the village mass-lynched themselves into extinction.

[Galadriel55]

As the restless spirits grew in number, so did their determination to defend their land, in life and in death. They whispered in the Night, lamenting their fate and that of their companions. But the stars twinkled brightly, and as the white moon rose, a thought occurred to all of them at once, as if sent to them by one greater than they.

So far, only one gifted received votes.



The Living
Boro
Kath
Legate
Lommy
Loslote
Morsul
Pitch
Sally
Soriman

The Dead
Gorlim (NPC/Ghost)
Galadriel55 (Night 1)
BlindGuardian (Night 1)
Greenie (Day 1 - Ordo)
Formendacil (Night 2 - Ordo)
Hui (Day 2 - Ordo)


It is now Night 3.

You may vote on sending a Ghost toMorrow; you have all 3 hauntings available. The first person with the most votes at Daybreak will haunt the village. If the majority of votes say ++No Ghost, there will not be a haunting.

[A Little Green]

Originally Posted by Huin

Sorry about Day One, Greenie.

Well, we were planning to vote for you on Day Two, so I'd say we're even. Form, for the record, I think you made the right choice in casting our vote for Sally. I just had a look at what happened after I went to sleep yesterDay and god what a turnaround!

Putting together the information from our tidbits, then. We know that
a) there is at least one wolf among Sally, Morsul, Pitch and Lottie, and
b) there is only one gifted among Sally, Morsul, Pitch, Lottie and Boro.

My first observation from this is that the votes have been concentrated on a surprisingly small number of people. I'm astonished that eg. Legate hasn't been voted for once during the entire game despite all his antics. Also, based on this information, my theory of Lottie as a potential gifted still looks plausible. But this also means that there are TWO gifteds among the ones who haven't been voted for, namely Kath, Legate, Lommy, and Soriman. I was actually wondering on Day 1 whether Legate's comments about being hunter-gatherers was a hint - but I'm also of the school that thinks a Hunter doesn't really benefit from hinting.

I'd like to do a reread of the entire Living Thread today if I have the time, to see if I can make some sense out of all of this. My immediate thought is that it might be time to revisit my Day 1 suspicion of Pitch.

Oh, and last thing we might want to consider - do we want to send out a Ghost? I'm not sure how much insight we have, but then, we do get three Ghost appearances, and the game might not last much longer than three Days now. Technically (read: if I did the maths right), they only need two successful Night kills and the lynch of an innocent toMorrow, and we have ourselves a wolf victory. On the bright side, all three of the gifted are still around too, and with smaller numbers they are arguably more likely to hit their respective targets right.

[Huinesoron]

I think we've only got a Ranger and Seer in this game, haven't we?

The Ghost question: I agree on the maths (and panicked last night when I thought we'd started with 10 and were thus facing a wolf win toNight!). We now have two pieces of information the Living don't, so the questions are: can we accurately convey those, and do we want to?

My instinct is that it should be possible to put together a quote-post for each Tidbit; I'll have a try at it today. But for the other... we have at least one wolf pinned down to, er... half of the village, and we know something about the Gifted, which isn't usually something you want to share.

... just occurring to me now is Thing C that we know:

c) Either Legate, Lommy, Soriman, or Kath is the other Gifted.

And of course the Ghost doesn't have to reveal everything at once. If, say, the Ranger died toNight, and then someone from the same half of the village claimed Seer, the Ghost would know and be able to say that they were a lying Wolf. And with a potential loss toMorrow, a Seer claim wouldn't overly surprise me.

I'm wary of sending one just to convey our theories, though; was it last game that the Dead were just as hilariously wrong as the Living the entire game?

hS