A military historian on the Siege of Gondor

[William Cloud Hicklin]

Originally Posted by Boromir88

Glad I stumbled upon this thread Huey. Thanks for sharing! I'll try to read his Helm's Deep analysis at a later date.

I wanted to bring up one minor quibble and that is with Mr. Devereaux's estimate for the size of Mordor's siege force.

The movies I think he has it correct, I recall headlines/promos for the battle stating 200,000-250,000 size. An army that size as he explains for the movies was unrealistic.

His estimate (granted he's right that Tolkien didn't pin down exact numbers and so was using wikipedia as a reference) of half the size of the movies is I believe too high.

In Karyn Wynn Fonstad's The Atlas of Middle-earth she gives reasonable estimates based on some of the force sizes Tolkien does give.

I'll start with the Battle of Morannon since it will make her reasoning for these estimates clearer.

So Aragorn marches out from Minas Tirith with 7,000 (1,000 horses, 6,000 infantry). 1,000 of them get cold feet and don't make it to the Black Gate. So Aragorn arrives with a force of 6,000. After the Mouth's message it's said:



This places Mordor's force at 70,000. 'and more than ten times their match' references that only 6,000 of the original 7,000 Aragorn marched out with reached the Black Gate.

It is unlikely the force at Pelennor fields was larger than this, because Sauron's mistake was he rushed the siege before his full plans were made and before his full strength gathered. Aragorn reveals the reforged sword and his identity to Sauron via the palantir of Orthanc, and this causes Sauron to rush his plans to attack Minas Tirith.

We do have some ideas of the size of the force (Fonstad settles on the conservative minimum estimate of 45,000 - roughly 4 times the estimated size for the forces of Gondor, Rohan and Aragorn's Grey company).

At the start Faramir comments that 'we may make the Enemy pay ten times our loss at the passage and yet rue the exchange.' And Faramir's force was 'ten times outnumbered at the Causeway forts. (The Siege of Gondor)

We are told the size of the Haradrim force (18,000) for the Rohirrim 'at their onset were thrice outnumbered by the Haradrim alone' (Battle of Pelennor Fields). Theoden remarked during their mustering at Dunharrow, they gathered 6,000 spears and that was 'less than half' what he hoped for.

So far, 6,000 for the forces of Gondor. 18,000 for Mordor.

Gondor:

6,000 Rohirrim

We don't have all the precise estimates of the fiefdoms forces that came to Minas Tirith, but after they all arrived 'And that was all, less than three thousands full told.' (Minas Tirith) Fonstad estimated the total forces from Gondor's fiefdoms 2,800.

The Tower of the Guard had at least 3 companies (Beregond was in the 3rd company) plus an 'out-garrison'. I believe a modern company consists of something like 80-200 troops. I can't quite remember the reasoning, but Fonstad seems to estimate that a 'company' in Lord of the Rings totals 400-500 troops each. With this she estimated the Tower Guard having no more than 2,000 troops.

Add in Aragorn's Grey Company of 30. Plus he comes with a force from the fiefdoms that were held back in defense of the arriving Corsairs. She estimates this to be 1,000 based on:



So all in total, Gondor and their allies seem to have mustered 11,000-12,000.

Mordor:

18,000 Haradrim.

Frodo witnesses the Minas Morgul host leaving and the narrator remarks it was the 'so great an army had never issued from that vale since the days of Isildur's might...and yet it was but one and not the greatest of the hosts that Mordor now sent forth.' (The Stairs of Cirith Ungol).

She estimates this host at 20,000 based on the causeway forts being outnumber 10 to 1 and Faramir's comments about making the enemy "pay ten times our loss."

So that makes 38,000.

I think her weakest case is the forces from Khand and Rhun which she settled on the conservative estimate that Mordor's force at the Pelennor fields was 4 times that of Gondor's. So she applies a minimum estimate of 45,000 leaving Khand and Rhun forces to make up the remaining 7,000.

Personally, with how often the overwhelming odds and vast size of Mordor's force is described, I think 45,000 is too low (but Fonstad admits that's the minimum amount), but I don't think it would have been over the 70,000 that issued out the Black Gate. Because as mentioned, Sauron actually made a mistake of besieging Minas Tirith before his full plans were made due to Aragorn's reveal. So I favor the higher end of 60-65,000.

I hope this was helpful. I really enjoyed reading his analysis, excellent stuff. And can't wait to get time to read his Helm's Deep analysis.

However, Devereaux makes two salient points, both relating to the fact that an army can be TOO big. 1) after you have completely invested the besieged fortress, any additional troops (not counting the logistics and support train) are supernumerary, and 2) it takes a LOT of food to support and army - and bringing the food means wagons, which means draft animals, which means fodder for the animals......

And given that the W-K is wholly dependent on in effect a single road (Black Gaqte- Ithilien-Osgiliath - the black Gate -Cair Andros route being untenable for serious supply - I would cap the effective force at around 28,000, which was about as large as pre-industrial armies could commit to a single road. (It was for this reason that Napoleon's corps d'armee were set at around that size; they would march by parallel routes and concentrate for battle).

[Kuruharan]

Originally Posted by William Cloud Hicklin

1) after you have completely invested the besieged fortress, any additional troops (not counting the logistics and support train) are supernumerary

Unless an immediate assault is intended.

[Galadriel55]

Originally Posted by Kuruharan

Unless an immediate assault is intended.

Yes. The plan was not to lay siege to Minas Tirith to starve it out, the plan was to conquer by fear and fire and dark magic within a few days and more onward to presumably secure the lands beyond - Gondor, Rohan, who knows how far west and north from there. Also, if the siege is taking too long, they might leave a sufficient force to guard the city while the bulk of the army might just move onward to subdue the small forces scattered around Gondor or reinforce the roads to allies, like they have with the Rohirrim, or do whatever other goal Sauron might have had. The invasion wasn't supposed to stop at conquering Minas Tirith.

[William Cloud Hicklin]

More from Devereaux- this time analyzing (scathingly) the movies' Helm's Deep campaign and battle (short version- if movie-Theoden had "fought many wars," he sure didn't learn a single thing from any of them!)


https://acoup.blog/2020/05/01/collec...at-helms-gate/

https://acoup.blog/2020/05/08/collec...ii-total-warg/

https://acoup.blog/2020/05/15/collec...st-of-saruman/

https://acoup.blog/2020/05/22/collec...-men-of-rohan/

https://acoup.blog/2020/05/28/collec...ers-are-chaos/

https://acoup.blog/2020/06/05/collec...-a-good-sword/

https://acoup.blog/2020/06/12/collec...g-by-a-thread/

https://acoup.blog/2020/06/19/collec...nd-of-saruman/

[Huinesoron]

Originally Posted by William Cloud Hicklin

More from Devereaux- this time analyzing (scathingly) the movies' Helm's Deep campaign and battle (short version- if movie-Theoden had "fought many wars," he sure didn't learn a single thing from any of them!)

Cool! It took me a few days to get through it (but still felt like less time than the Helm's Deep sequence in the movie... ). I liked that (part of) the takeaway was "the Witch-King was an idiot because Jackson didn't understand the books; Saruman was an idiot because Tolkien deliberately wrote him that way".

I did not need reminding about "cavalry charge down a 45-degree slope directly into a wall of pikes" being Gandalf's strategy for victory, though.

He also made an interesting comment somewhere early on: that the Battle of the Hornburg is somewhat sparse on details, because Tolkien deliberately avoids his characters As-You-Know-Bob-ing at each other, and there's no conveniently ignorant hobbits around to be explained to. I put that together with my own memory that the battle seems to mostly be told by its lulls - Aragorn talking to Theoden, Legolas and Gimli counting shots, etc - and that it's explicitly a battle where the viewpoint characters don't know everything - doesn't Aragorn spend half of it thinking Eomer's probably dead? - and remembered just how very different Tolkien is from his successors and imitators.

hS

[William Cloud Hicklin]

battle where the viewpoint characters don't know everything

Truth in television: Tolkien, as a communications officer in combat, knew very well about the 'fog of war' and the fact that participants don't know anything about what's going on beyond what they can see (not much), and the commanders know little more than whatever messages might reach them (usually late and garbled).

A problem with the movie trilogy throughout is that everyone always knows too much.

[Kuruharan]

Originally Posted by William Cloud Hicklin

More from Devereaux- this time analyzing (scathingly) the movies' Helm's Deep campaign and battle (short version- if movie-Theoden had "fought many wars," he sure didn't learn a single thing from any of them!)


https://acoup.blog/2020/05/01/collec...at-helms-gate/

https://acoup.blog/2020/05/08/collec...ii-total-warg/

https://acoup.blog/2020/05/15/collec...st-of-saruman/

https://acoup.blog/2020/05/22/collec...-men-of-rohan/

https://acoup.blog/2020/05/28/collec...ers-are-chaos/

https://acoup.blog/2020/06/05/collec...-a-good-sword/

https://acoup.blog/2020/06/12/collec...g-by-a-thread/

https://acoup.blog/2020/06/19/collec...nd-of-saruman/

Apparenly I must spread some reputation around before I can give it to William Cloud Hicklin again.

While overall this continues to be a very good series (I enjoyed the discussion on cavalry tactics especially) there is something that got my goat this time.

While I agree with Mr. Devereaux's contention that Saruman's army was a fundamentally green and untested force which contributed significantly to its ultimate defeat, I think that the author significantly underestimates how long Saruman had been building and preparing his army, which I think serves to diminish the achievement of the Rohirrim in defeating Saruman.

The biggest problem in the article is that I think the author assigns the movie far too much esteem, even though he is still mostly criticizing it. Specifically to this topic, I think the orc spawning in the films was nonsense.

Admittedly, the problem is that we are mostly left in the dark about orc breeding (which in most respects is probably just as well). However, it is stated that orcs "breed and multiply after the manner of the Children of Ilúvatar." To me this renders it impossible that the film conception of orc birth and growth can be accurate. Much of Mr. Devereaux's argument is based upon the idea that Saruman spawned and reared the entire corps of the Fighting Uruk-hai over the course of six months.

I think that is just malarkey, but that is a disagreement rooted in our fundamental disagreement about the value and quality of the ideas in the films.

Admittedly, it is a weakness in the written story that Gandalf somehow failed to perceive the changes in Isengard when he initially arrived (most prominently that there were wargs and orcs about.) I concede this is an issue. Maybe he was just in such a hurry to get into the tower to talk to Saruman and had tunnel vision. One explanation is that the orcs were housed on the far side of Isengard (and probably also largely underground) so that they may have been out of sight of Gandalf when he arrived. Another explanation for it is this is just one of those spots in the story that Tolkien didn't write very well. There are a few of those, and realistically this is the most likely explanation.

As an aside, Saruman’s Uruk-hai themselves are an extremely ambiguous feature in the trilogy. There are basically two possibilities regarding them: A) They were a new breed of uruks especially crafted by Saruman, this is the usual interpretation, and the one that is best supported textually. It does beg the question of where Saruman got his breeding stock. It also begs the question of how long Saruman had been up to this. Breeding them after the manner of the Children of Ilúvatar would suggest a minimum of a decade and a half of work if Saruman started from scratch.

There is another possibility.

An alternative interpretation of The Uruk-hai chapter in The Two Towers could be that Saruman’s uruk-hai were just Mordor uruk-hai that he had co-opted somehow and retrained and equipped to a different style of fighting. Uglúk and Grishnákh seem kind of familiar with each other, moreso perhaps than just the few weeks of acquaintance we definitely know about from the text might suggest. Also, if the Isengard uruks were purely Saruman’s creation, why would Grishnákh think that threatening to report them to Barad-dur would make the slightest impression on them.

However, neither of these possibilities changes the fact that Saruman must have invested years, if not decades, into the development of his new army. Co-opting and retraining Mordorian uruks would actually be the faster way to go about this, but that would still be a years long endeavor. You don’t relearn how to fight with new tools quickly.

Of course, I think the true answer to this problem is that Tolkien himself didn’t work it out. As we know, he struggled with the conception of orcs until the very end. We could also get into the question of just what exactly an orc is and is it possible or even likely that elves, men, and orcs might just be various forms of the same species (making dwarves the only special beings about. )

As a final aside, I do have to smirk a bit about Mr. Devereaux's complaint that the movie uruks mostly just grunt and growl at each other. If they are only six months old beasts with almost no socialization, OF COURSE all they are going to be capable of is screeching at each other and everything else. But I give Jackson no credit for this. I’m sure this is just something he accidently managed to “get right.”

[William Cloud Hicklin]

Originally Posted by Galadriel55

Yes. The plan was not to lay siege to Minas Tirith to starve it out, the plan was to conquer by fear and fire and dark magic within a few days and more onward to presumably secure the lands beyond - Gondor, Rohan, who knows how far west and north from there. Also, if the siege is taking too long, they might leave a sufficient force to guard the city while the bulk of the army might just move onward to subdue the small forces scattered around Gondor or reinforce the roads to allies, like they have with the Rohirrim, or do whatever other goal Sauron might have had. The invasion wasn't supposed to stop at conquering Minas Tirith.

But in that case you don't send your exploitation reserve to the end of the logistical tether; you keep them near a supply base. It would make perfect sense for the W-K to keep his battle-reserve at Osgiliath, as in the book, and his exploitation-reserve at Minas Morgul where they could eat without burdening the system, while still being just a day's march from the crossings of Anduin.

Real-world example, which Tolkien knew: the Somme. Haig's exploitation reserve was the Reserve Army under Gough, which (in the original plan and OOB) comprised three cavalry divisions, kept well back from the trench lines and expected to rush into the German rear after the Fourth Army broke through. Another, contemorary with the LR: Montgomery's Operations Epsom and Goodwood around Caen were supposed to create a gap in the German lines through which the 7th Armoured, held in reserve, would go lolloping off towards Falaise.