Tol-in-Gaurhoth CXV: On the Borders of Mirkwood - Game Thread

[Macalaure]

Let's get the communication stuff out of the way before we get into the meat of things.

I think it makes more sense to communicate known wolves over known innocents. Obviously, though, we don't want the dead to turn a wolf into the medium.

What about:

If Brinniel is a wolf, empower Kath.
If Kath is a wolf, empower Mac.
If Macalaure is a wolf, empower Nilp.
If Nilpaurion Felagund is a wolf, empower Pitch.
If Pitchwife is a wolf, empower Rikae.
If Rikae is a wolf, empower Sally.
If satansaloser2005 is a wolf, empower Shasta.
If Shastanis Althreduin is a wolf, empower Lommy.
If Thinlomien is a wolf, empower Brinniel.

If you don't have a known wolf, empower no one.

There's of course a possibility that two wolves are adjacent in the alphabet, but what are you gonna do.

[Kath]

Originally Posted by Macalaure

Let's get the communication stuff out of the way before we get into the meat of things.

I think it makes more sense to communicate known wolves over known innocents. Obviously, though, we don't want the dead to turn a wolf into the medium.

What about:

If Brinniel is a wolf, empower Kath.
If Kath is a wolf, empower Mac.
If Macalaure is a wolf, empower Nilp.
If Nilpaurion Felagund is a wolf, empower Pitch.
If Pitchwife is a wolf, empower Rikae.
If Rikae is a wolf, empower Sally.
If satansaloser2005 is a wolf, empower Shasta.
If Shastanis Althreduin is a wolf, empower Lommy.
If Thinlomien is a wolf, empower Brinniel.

If you don't have a known wolf, empower no one.

There's of course a possibility that two wolves are adjacent in the alphabet, but what are you gonna do.

This seems really logical and a good idea.

Originally Posted by Brinn

For one, I'm not entirely positive how likely a Pitch/Kath combo actually is.

I'm quoting Brinn, but actually quite a few people keep talking about a Pitch/Kath combo. I'd love this to be explained because I've no idea what it's meant to be.

[Pitchwife]

So we actually had a Greenseer? Is this Middle-earth or Westeros?

Got to say this comes as a surprise in more than one way. I mean, I had a strong innocent impression from her posts, but nothing particularly seerish; makes me wonder what the wolves noticed - or Nilp, for that matter, since it seems he actually was the BH.

Also, since the wolves now consistently killed people for suspecting Legate three Nights in a row, I'm surprised - disappointed really - he wasn't the NW. Why incriminate a packmate so heavily if you have nothing special to gain by his death?

On another note, after Rikae's rather notable Seer hints yesterDay, I'm rather surprised the wolves left them alone and went for Greenie instead, unless of course Rikae is one themself. I mean, it's not impossible that Rikae was trying to set themself up as a decoy to distract from the real Seer, as they claim, but at the same time those hints could have been laid in preparation for a fake reveal to draw out the Seer toDay, and at the very least they could have drawn the Ranger's protection from the real Seer. So I must say I don't like their prophylactic apology in their first post toDay.

[Nilpaurion Felagund]

Originally Posted by Pitchwife

makes me wonder what the wolves noticed - or Nilp, for that matter, since it seems he actually was the BH.

As for me, since I'd set the trap around my house the DAY before, I simply went with the living villager who hadn't voted for Form. No deeper reason.

(I was more disappointed with my DAY 1 choice: it was down to Lottie or Bryn [sic], and guess who I chose.)

[Kath]

A look at Legate:

Originally Posted by Legate

Overall there are multiple people who look like they could be Cobblers (Lottie, Nilp, Pitch), and from the others whom I consider suspicious at least to a degree there would be Form or BG. That is kind of preciously little. Ok, off to check the posts and ooooh how is it this late!!

From Day 1. Well Lottie = innocent, Nilp I am assuming = BH, Form = innocent, BG = innocent. So the only person left there is Pitch. Would Legate hide a wolf amongst a list of innocents? I can't see why not. Also, there was a lot of Cobbler talk from Legate in hindsight as opposed to wolf talk. He convinces himself Form is a Cobbler then votes Form because he is more suspicious than Hui by default of being a Cobbler. Oh blast, how didn't we spot this:

Originally Posted by Legate

It is possible he might be a Cobbler, but I still find him more suspicious by default than Hui.

It can only be by default if you know that Hui is innocent ... which Legate did!

Day 2
Exonerates Shasta's vote for Hui by saying it's impossible to tell how the Hui-wagon would go. Soft defend. Says Rikae's vote would only be significant if Form was a wolf, which he now know he wasn't, so could be setting up a defence. Begins to push suspicion of Nog here based on his vote. Not sure what he was concluding about my vote.

Originally Posted by Legate

Otherwise, to me personally, the most suspicious votes seem to be Pitch's, which was the most throwaway thing ever and I would like to hear more reasoning for it, and BG's, which I still consider it like riding the coattails of Hui's. That would, however, make sense only if Form was not a Wolf. Or in other words, if BG is a Wolf, Form is likely not, and vice versa. Something to keep in mind.

Setting up a handy x relies on y that it turns out was based on two innocents. So he knew BG and Form were innocent and again pops Pitch's name in with that list.

Says Mac is downplaying the likelihood of Form and Nilp being wolves. Then leaps on Nog.

Summary of list post:
Good = Lommy, Greenie ( known innocent), Brinn, Rikae
Middle = Pitch, Nilp (assumed BH), Kath, Shasta, sally
Bad = Mac, Form (known innocent), Nog (known innocent), BG (known innocent)

So at a guess, Mac could be a wolf as Legate would probably be willing to name a fellow lupine as a top suspect. Also, at this point, I don't think Mac was even near a potential lynch candidate for most of the village, so it's a pretty safe suspicion. And then one from the middle - so to me that's Pitch, Shasta, sally. And one from the good - so Lommy, Brinn or Rikae.

Well that reeeeally narrowed things down.

Hmm, right after that, he revises his list to make Shasta and sally more suspicious.

Day 3
Pushes at Rikae and Pitch for their votes. So I'd say maybe only one of these two would be wolfy. Also starts to connect Mac and Nilp as a pairing. Jumps on Form at this point.

Looks at Mac and decides it could go either way.

Originally Posted by Legate

The only thing that still puzzles me is the accusation of Mac he has made; if Nilp's innocent, that was dangerous at the very least.

In Nilp's previous post, he downgraded Mac from top suspect to 6th/7th, so this doesn't actually make any sense. Sensitive to mentions of Mac because ... Mac's a fellow wolf?

New list (summarised - and I underlined movers):
Good = Lommy, Brinn (previously was Lommy, Greenie, Brinn, Rikae)
Middle = Greenie, Kath, Pitch, Rikae, Shasta (previously was Pitch, Nilp, Kath, Shasta, sally)
Bad = sally, Mac, Form (previously was Mac, Form, Nog, BG)

So I'd say only one of sally and Mac was a wolf then, as they're both in the red there.

Mac, sally, Rikae are standing out the most to me here. Followed by Shasta and Pitch. Which probably means the remaining wolves are Lommy, Brinn and flipping Nilp given how wrong I've been all game.

[Shastanis Althreduin]

Originally Posted by Macalaure

Let's get the communication stuff out of the way before we get into the meat of things.

I think it makes more sense to communicate known wolves over known innocents. Obviously, though, we don't want the dead to turn a wolf into the medium.

What about:

If Brinniel is a wolf, empower Kath.
If Kath is a wolf, empower Mac.
If Macalaure is a wolf, empower Nilp.
If Nilpaurion Felagund is a wolf, empower Pitch.
If Pitchwife is a wolf, empower Rikae.
If Rikae is a wolf, empower Sally.
If satansaloser2005 is a wolf, empower Shasta.
If Shastanis Althreduin is a wolf, empower Lommy.
If Thinlomien is a wolf, empower Brinniel.

If you don't have a known wolf, empower no one.

There's of course a possibility that two wolves are adjacent in the alphabet, but what are you gonna do.

This perspective from Mac about the possibility of a wolf receiving the medium empowerment... He's clearly thinking about all things mechanical here. I kind of like it, although I'm not sure I should.