Tol-in-Gaurhoth CXV: On the Borders of Mirkwood - Dead Thread

[Nogrod]

Originally Posted by Huinesoron

Of the 32 votes cast by the current survivors, 23 were cast on now-known innocents.

Okay.

So let's assume the wolves don't straightforwardly involve themselves in bandwagons which end up lynching innocents - because they know which bandwagons to avoid - but they will take part in some, especially on D3 when there weren't too many to be of a different opinion.

So four wolves making three votes each is 12 votes. I would say it goes something like 40-60 for wolves joining succesful innocent-bandawagons (them voting an innocent who is lynched 40% of the time the most, and nicely hiding behind a non lynched candidate 60% of the time), as a conservative estimate. It could be 1/3 vs. 2/3 as well - which would be even worse from the villagers' POV.

Looking at the craziness of D3 voting we might need to bring that percentage to 50-50 as the wolves had no other option but to comply (basically Brinn's complaint could be read as well as a frustrated wolf's cry of "doggone it" than an innocent's).

With that ratio we'd have the wolves giving 6 votes to others than the known innocents, so meanwhile the rest of the village (8 people) have given votes to "not-known innocents" only three times!

8 innocent villagers 3 votes each - and only three of those votes have gone to someone else than a now known innocent!




They really need to pull themselves together now.

Originally Posted by BG

My guess is Legate is a Wolf. Greenie is the Seer. Greenie is dying tonight.

I'm afraid that might be true. And if what happens toNight is because of:

Originally Posted by BG

If the Ranger goes after Nilp and not Greenie...

If Nilp is a Wolf then that was a good play to distract the Ranger. If Nilp is the BH imma be mad.

then I'm going to be a little frustrated as well...


So thumbs up for the Ranger!