Tol-in-Gaurhoth CXV: On the Borders of Mirkwood - Game Thread

[Rikae]

Originally Posted by Pitchwife

I know you like to poke for reactions (much like our deceased Hui), put something out to see who latches on to it, and I'm fine with that on D1, but when it's two Days later and half the village seems to think I'm the cobbler for noticing one I get a bit touchy about being misrepresented. I don't know if it makes you a wolf, but if doesn't, what DOES it make you? You tell me.

Someone who would like some leads before the end of the day.

[Kath]

I've got to go now. I would have liked to look at Greenie in more detail but I'm loathe to poke at someone who I know can't really be around today.

So, given the Form-alysis made me not very happy with him:
++FORM

Nilp, I'm going with believing you, but I would like to ask why Legate is your planned vote? Sorry if you've already answered and I missed it.

[Nilpaurion Felagund]

Originally Posted by Kath

Nilp, I'm going with believing you, but I would like to ask why Legate is your planned vote? Sorry if you've already answered and I missed it.

Nog's Lottie question (if voting for Legate was what got her mistaken for a Seer) and from here:

Legate - My other top suspect. Another idea I'll claim to have come up with independently, even if many others have posted about it: this post read like someone rehearsing an alibi in front of a mirror. Sorry for that analogy, but that's how I felt.

My reading of DAY 1 (still at page 4) has added nothing significant to my notes so far.

[Brinniel]

Originally Posted by Rikae

A thought: if the seer is night-killed the dead thread will have access to info we don't (their last dream, even if they thoroughly hinted the rest), so let's make sure, in that case, to do the fake-vote thing so they can be sure to empower someone who's voting correctly.

But unless the seer dreamed of a wolf, how would they know for sure if someone is voting correctly? Or what if no one votes for a wolf the seer dreamt of?

Maybe if the seer is killed the Dead Thread empowers a known innocent?

[Nilpaurion Felagund]

Originally Posted by Brinniel

But unless the seer dreamed of a wolf, how would they know for sure if someone is voting correctly? Or what if no one votes for a wolf the seer dreamt of?

Maybe if the seer is killed the Dead Thread empowers a known innocent?

The way I'm thinking, we can ask, if X is an innocent, empower Y. Or if M is a wolf, empower N.

[Rikae]

++Form

And incidentally, of those I listed as packmate-ish, I think that knowing Pitch's role would give us the most leads.

[Formendacil]

Originally Posted by Rikae

++Form

And incidentally, of those I listed as packmate-ish, I think that knowing Pitch's role would give us the most leads.

Well, in naked self-interest, I am definitely voting ++Legate of Amon Lanc now.

[Thinlómien]

Originally Posted by Brinn

Actually the seer should have had three dreams by now. But that doesn't mean they are all alive. And so no, we shouldn't rely on the seer.

Oops, I somehow temporarily forgot it's Day3 already. (In my defense, days when you sleep 6h and work 9h should be banned. That's an unhealhty ratio.)

Originally Posted by Shasta

That seems to be the point of your post, though - if Rikae and Legate had wanted to save just one of Kath or Form, they'd have jumped on the other - but they didn't, they went for Nog. So they didn't want to save just one of them - they wanted to save them both. Which would make them all evil together. Right?

Agreed on principle. But that would require a) coordination, b) willingness to stick their necks out a little. Plus, there isn't a reason why they couldn't have acted the same way if innocent. So until we know at least 1/4 of their identity, it's all guesswork. (And side note, I'm always sceptical of theories that pin down the whole wolf pack a once. I mean, it would be amazing, but I've yet to see one that was correct. Especially on a Day3 with no proven wolves around.)

Originally Posted by Greenie

Fair point, but more than half the village were still left to vote at that point so she could have figured the situation was likely to change. Also she didn’t actually add a new lynch candidate, Nilp already had one vote so she tied him with herself and Form. Admittedly she could have voted Form, too, but this would have looked pretty fishy for her the next Day if she hadn’t suspected Form previously (I don’t actually remember if she did).

Hm, maybe I better take one more look at that vote tally.

Originally Posted by Greenie

Not sure if this holds water. First-post-of-the-Day comments on what happened at the end of the Day before (the lynch, the Medium) are not knee-jerk reactions. People’s actual reactions to the events, whether it’s feeling gleeful or bummed, happen behind their screens, 24 hours before they write those posts the next Day. So you might feel really bummed about the lynch, but 24 hours later not feel compelled to say you feel bummed about the lynch. (Personally I almost never do, whatever my role – I just don’t see the point. That doesn’t mean I don’t feel bummed when we lynch an innocent.) What I’m trying to say is, I’d be wary of reading too much into that kind of thing since I think it indicates personality/posting style more than alignment.

I feel like my answer to this boils to a bit "yes, BUT". Rikae's glee at Hui and Lottie's choice wasn't an instant reaction either. But clearly it was the one first on their mind. I still think that's a more likely priority for a wolf/cobbler than for an innocent. Of course, I'm not saying it PROVES anything, but it caught my eye.

Originally Posted by Brinn

Maybe if the seer is killed the Dead Thread empowers a known innocent?

Solid, even though it still leaves no way to communicate a wolf dream (more important). But umm, let's discuss this when it's relevant and not shortly before the deadline on a Day when it's not relevant yet?

I would prefer to vote Form toDay. Not too covinced about Legate's guilt.

(I'm open to other options at least in theory, but. *shrug*)

[satansaloser2005]

WHOA.

I mean, I had Greenie pegged as a gifted, but I assumed ranger. Apparently the wolves noticed something I didn't.

And nicely done, my beloved! I'm proud of you! Now do it again tomorrow and we're halfway there!

[Boromir88]

In the beginning, things could not have gone much worse for the village. Lynch after lynch turned up just another wrongly accused villager. Then a glimmer of hope, even if it cost the loss of the seer, the Beast Hunter had booby trapped her home, which caught one of the werewolves.

With this new information and knowledge came a new hope. Would the villagers be able to capitalize on this new found fortune? How would they put this information to use?

"Why not spend the day arguing different messages from the dead?" decided many of them.

The dead looked on and waited.

"How about we realize the dire situation and focus on voting to lynch a werewolf?" said Shasta.

The dead looked on and waited.

"No, we need to make sure they get a clear message of what we want." argued others.

The dead looked on and waited. And as the day approached to an end they came to a decision.

It was Shasta's voice that spoke and everyone went quiet. "Isn't it obvious? ++Macalaure"

"What the devil are the dead trying to tell us?" questioned all the villagers. "This puts us in a tie!"

"I think that means I'm lynched?" said Mac "If I'm following this blasted thing correctly."

"++SHASTA!" came Nilp running and huffing and puffing. "SORRY! I fell asleep! But did I make it!"

That was enough for the village, right in the nick of time to let go of Mac and send Shasta to the gallow.

"Welp I tried" declared Shasta.

An ordinary villager was lynched.


The Dead

Boro (Town Recorder) - murdered by pack Night 1
Huinesoron (Villager) - lynched Day 1
Loslote (Villager) - killed by pack Night 2
Nogrod (Villager) - Lynched Day 2
Blind Guardian (Villager) - killed by pack Night 3
Formendacil (Villager) - lynched Day 3
A Little Green (Seer) - killed by pack Night 4
Legate of Amon Lanc (Werewolf) - caught in BH booby trap Night 4
Shastanis Althreduin (Villager) - Lynched Day 4

The Living

Brinniel
Kath
Macalaure
Nilpaurion Felagund
Pitchwife
Rikae
satansaloser2005
Thinlomien

----

It is Night 5. Silence in the town.

Werewolves talk and send kill.

Ranger Protect.

Beast Hunter's trap has been used

[Rikae]

Originally Posted by Brinniel

But unless the seer dreamed of a wolf, how would they know for sure if someone is voting correctly? Or what if no one votes for a wolf the seer dreamt of?

Maybe if the seer is killed the Dead Thread empowers a known innocent?

Correctly, as in voting for a wolf ideally, but at least not voting for a (dead thread known) innocent.

[Boromir88]

A quick tally

Kath > Form
Greenie > Legate

1 hour to go.

Edit: Crossed with Greenie.

[Macalaure]

Rikae is up to something but I'll be darned if I know what it is.

If the seer dies we could either +- again or set up a plan like what Nilp suggests. Maybe we should discuss that when it happens and not 1 hour before deadline though.

[Formendacil]

I am caught up and ought to be posting, but I'll admit to being someqhat afraid to open my mouth, because nothing comes out but shoes and howls, it seems. Great cover if I play again soon enough and as a Wolf, but in the here-and-this thread, that's not so helpful. While I actually relish the idea of participating in a Dead Thread for what would effectively be the first time, I'd rather WIN and the village is more likely to do that if I'm not the fifth Ordo in a row to die.

I'm lukewarm on Nilp voting for Legate, but I'm willimg to fall in line and vote for a possible-Known Innocent's plan than keep stumbling around in the dark. And Legate WAS suspicious to Nog, for whatever that's worth.

Myself, I'd still like to see Kath or Pitch on the ballot, and there is a general swirl of talk about both of them, but I don't think the village has any sort of consensus building other than "Form looks bad."

[Legate of Amon Lanc]

I'm back to the drawing board, finished reading through Rikae's posts on previous Days, plus looked at the votes again. I would still like to do a read-through of Pitch and Greenie, but I am slowly running out of mental capacity toDay it seems to me.

Quick list and then going to vote:

Green zone:
Lommy - I have seen nothing that would make me feel bad about her, even though I admit I have sort of grown accustomed to trusting my gut feeling with her. Usually, Days 3 to 4 are the ones when I become scatterbrained and start seeing ghosts everywhere because my initial beliefs (in this case, Nog, BG) turn out not to work. I will try to resist this and if I am alive toMorrow, do a read-through of her posts alongside with others.

Brinniel - she has been pursuing her suspects very clearly, the same on Day 2. Overall I think her reasoning made sense.

Yellow zone:
Greenie - I want to re-read, but not toDay!
Kath - her posts overall feel rather good than bad. Her vote on Day 1 was potentially Wolfy, but much of it depends on Form's role.
Pitch - keep flip-flopping about him, also need a re-read.
Rikae - after rereading their posts, nothing that would stand out, and I don't feel like I can start delving into this at this hour.
Shasta - I am the most on the verge about him, since he seems to appear, say that he could vote anyone and he often also ends up doing so - not much can be deduced on voting alone. Not sure if I'd feel up to voting him based on that though.

Red zone:
sally - I still think her posts are present without not saying much. Same with her vote.
Mac - I am chiefly unhappy about his "off the mainstream"-voting, otherwise see above.
Form - I am still leaning towards the direction that he's a Cobbler, NW is also a possibility however.

EDIT: x-ed with some.

[A Little Green]

++ Legate

Again somewhat meta, but Kath's confusion about the BH rules is enough to give me vague second thoughts about her. Meanwhile, I'm still suspicious of Legate for a) the Lottie kill, b) his weird reaction to the Lottie kill that I agree looks rehearsed, c) his role in the Nog lynch, d) woefulness about late voting without effort to actually change it that essentially amounts to less accountability for votes, and e) general feeling of Mr Agreeableness (sorry Pitch, I know it's a trigger word ) or something not quite right - I recall innocent Legate being bigger on grand theories and generally giving more of an active vibe rather than mournful witness of unfolding last-minute chaos.