Tol-in-Gaurhoth CXV: On the Borders of Mirkwood - Game Thread

[Rikae]

Originally Posted by Legate of Amon Lanc

I also do not see where did Rikae's vote for Nog exactly come from. Care to elaborate? Rikae has become increasingly untransparent to me. Same goes for Pitch's vote, only he's been untransparent already before. Why Nog and not somebody else?

Sorry if it was unclear. I had posted about my suspicions of him earlier and at that point it looked like my top suspect wouldn't be on the table unless I acted rapidly.

Originally Posted by Mac

Reading my own sentence again here, I'm not making sense. If the waggon was wolf-led, it of course points to Form, he was the only one in there.

Eeh? Don't get me wrong, you look innocent to me, but I'm not sure what this is supposed to mean.

Originally Posted by Form

In each case, I've voted relatively early (none of this "last fifteen minutes" cluster that Legate wrings his hands over)--but I have added to existing waggons: both of which would have saved a Known Innocent had the village followed. Granted, there's no guarantee a different Innocent might not have died, but we KNOW Known Innocents did.

So, I submit: if I am a Cobbler, am I a good one?

Really? You voted cleanly, so you're not a cobbler? I agree, though, you are not ...

[Thinlómien]

Here!

First impressions: side-eyeing Nog voters very hard. There is a very fishy reek to the whole business.

Very surprised to see BG gone because I seem to recall her thinking there was no seer in the whole game?? Did the wolves think that was a bizarre bluff? She must have been onto something then.

Now off to read and comment.

[Thinlómien]

Originally Posted by Rikae

I'm about to go have dinner, but I just wanted to say:

Hui and Loslote,

THAT WAS EPIC

...what? Are you the cobbler perhaps?

Re: Brinn's helpful post about BG: ok I can see why she was thought the seer now but it's still weird to me. Form looks a little dubious as a result, but I'm hesitating to jump on it because Nog was on par with him. Unless they thought BG had dreamed of Form and was just jumping into conclusions about Nog protecting him?

I would also give credit to BG fairly arbitrarily naming Shasta as the ranger - it's quite a far-fetched conclusion to make as an ordo so I would understand if the wolves thought BG had inside information. Of course, she also named Nog as the beast hunter which was NOT true, and the wolves knew that was wrong too by the time they killed her. So in conclusion, I think this kill makes Shasta look more innocent than not.

Originally Posted by Brinn

And if you are a wolf, your packmates may have found you worth sacrificing for this reason (and especially if you are the NW).

What she said.

Originally Posted by Mac

Not much to say about the night kill. "Will I dream Dave" plus leaving out the seer in her gifted discussion... Yeah, maybe it's a too obvious hint, as Brinn said, but it would be near negligent of the wolves to discount it for that.

Given that I still can't follow the wolf logic on BG and I'm not the only one and here Mac goes soft defending how resonable it is... makes me suspicious of Mac. Are you offended that we think your kill pick was stupid?

Originally Posted by Mac

Lastly, while it's possible that Hui and Lottie made Brinn the medium for the entertainment value, but I'm going to give them the benefit of the doubt (yes, I know, they're just ordos, too) and will give her a pass for toDay, not that I was really suspicious of her to begin with.

Why on earth would you give someone a pass just because two dead ordos decided to endorse her?

Originally Posted by Brinn

I took a look through Legate's posts since I said I would. His posting seems less frequent than last game, but I like the content of his posts, probably because I agree with a lot of it. I don't really buy into Nogrod's theory that Lottie died because the wolves thought she dreamed of an evil Legate. Sure it's possible, but I still find it more likely that they thought her a seer that dreamed of Hui. Her suspicion of Legate came late in the Day, and I think a Legatewolf would more likely risk another Day than immediately kill her as a possible seer.

Pitch's vote was the most bandwaggony of the Nog votes and looking through his posts, I'm not clear on the reasons for his vote and why he suspected him. Mac did make a good point that it was interesting he didn't consider voting Kath considering she was one of his top suspects yesterDay.

I did mention before that Formy appeared to be more cobblerish...but based on last Night's kill, I wonder if he's in fact the NW.

Agreeing with basically all of this. (Which isn't necessarily comforting? It's always creepy when someone else in ww thinks too similarly to you.) Anyway agreed that Pitch's bandwagony vote was weird. Doesn't make me think him any less of a cobbler, for one.

Originally Posted by Shasta

I would have expected something like Pitch, Kath, or Form, but Nog I thought was fairly solidly good. Hm. Makes me wonder how evil-driven that execution was.

I bet the lovely sofa I'm sitting on that there was at least one wolf in the nogwagon.

Originally Posted by Shasta

Form - honestly, with as much suspicion as he's been getting, the fact that he hasn't been executed yet speaks to him being saved. The traction seems to be there, but it dies off at the last second.

My thoughts EXACTLY. Also the last Night kill and him hiding behind stastics to make all his arguments feel very dubious to me.

Re: Greenie's post about Mac and Form: iiinteresting. A Mac-Form pack wouldn't really surprise me very much. I also agree with Greenie about Brinn's consistency scarcely being a point in favour (if not a point *against* her either.)

Originally Posted by Greenie

This looks a lot like hand-washing. I can’t believe I’m spelling this out, but if you don’t like all the action happening literally in the last 10 minutes, how about – vote sooner? It’s not like some force of nature we’re helpless against, and painting it as such is an easy way to take less responsibility for one’s vote. As in, cross-posting with half the village so you can later claim you had no idea your vote was part of a bandwagon instead of an individual vote with no consequence. This isn’t just Legate, either – I’m a bit worried about the last-minute voting and how easy it is to hide there. With votes more spread out and less cross-posting, people are forced to be more accountable for their votes as they’ll know what’s going on when they’re voting and how their vote impacts the overall situation.

Hear, hear! These accesible-for-most deadlines are lovely, but they do require a bit more coordination from the village. A thought: if you're an innocent with a strong suspicion, you should rather vote EARLIER because that's when you can affect who ends up as a chopping block contester. That's what I've been doing these two gmes mostly - alas not always with the best results. (Made me think of what Rikae said yesterDay about categorising ww players in terms of resilience, persuasiveness and perception - I'm afraid I would score fairly high on resilience and persuasiveness but not very high on perception... not really ideal except maybe for a cobbler...)

Originally Posted by Greenie

I actually thought the opposite – BG did cause controversy but towards the end of the Day I remember the consensus seeming more like “she wouldn’t do this if she was a wolf”. That Legate remembers it so differently is very interesting, and I now feel like I should check back and see which one of us is right! Admittedly I’m not sure if that’s a very fruitful line of inquiry.

My two cents is "she looked like a confused ordo and I thought the whole village agreed", which is probably why the kill baffles me.

Going to cross-post with everyone after my last...

[Legate of Amon Lanc]

Originally Posted by Macalaure

He latched on to the "if the wolves thought Lottie was the seer then why is Mac still alive" thing that Nog brought up (though Nilp says he thought of it on his own), and this was his reason for suspecting me (while Nog didn't take it that far). I thought the reason was bad and suspected him in turn.
Not the most solid of suspicions, and reflecting I might have gotten carried away by being annoyed by it, but it was not one bit random and I don't know how you got that impression.

Fair enough, especially since I just went over the same post of Nilp's. Not sure it proves anything in the bigger picture, but fair enough.

Originally Posted by Macalaure

I have to echo Greenie here, this doesn't make sense.
-The votes for Kath were not unexpected, Greenie's at any rate was predictable.
-The general suspicion of Nogrod seemed to lessen at the time.
-If the wolves find it necessary to start a pre-emptive(!) bandwaggon to save a fellow, they will usually decide that instead it's time for that fellow to catch a bus. Especially with a large pack and on Day2.

Greenie voted for someone she suspected, but she suspected Nog as well and decided against it. I'm talking about how it felt subjectively at that point, when I thought Nog was fishy and suddenly people started turning away from it. The second point is no argument for anything, the third I would argue is pure assumption, since "usually" would exactly differ from pack to pack.
Anyway, all this is purely hypothetical, since now we know Nog was innocent and nobody was saving him.

Originally Posted by Rikae

Sorry if it was unclear. I had posted about my suspicions of him earlier and at that point it looked like my top suspect wouldn't be on the table unless I acted rapidly.

Also fair enough. It was mostly that you were listing many things in your previous post(s), and you sure voiced suspicion of him, but there was no clear "I want to vote Nogrod". But very well.

EDIT: x-ed with Nilp and Mac. Okay, what? But work calls, gh.

[Formendacil]

I'm lurking from work, so this will be short, but....

Isn't Nilp supposed to be LESS confusing after Day 1. This is Day 3. I didn't get a Seer vibe at all, false or not.

[Pitchwife]

Originally Posted by Formendacil

Isn't Nilp supposed to be LESS confusing after Day 1. This is Day 3. I didn't get a Seer vibe at all, false or not.

I hate to say it, but I totally agree with Form here. If people don't think Lottie looked seerish, I don't understand why Nilp expected anyone to think it of him. Also backing off a suspicion with "sorry, just kidding, as you were" - meh. I don't know.