Tol-in-Gaurhoth CXV: On the Borders of Mirkwood - Game Thread

[Formendacil]

I assume all the returning players went through this last game: does the fact that the Dead Thread chose Brinn as their medium suggest any endorsement of Brinn or is it strictly that the vote she was making is what they wanted to see voted?

Obviously, they KNOW as little as any of us (as evinced by their vote against what is now a Known Innocent), but is there any precedent for taking that as any sort of an endorsement? I'm acting on the assumption not, but that's a place where the "unspoken assumptions" would be valuable to know.

As promised, I looked my surprisingly-still-updated Excel file, but (guessing, as this is the first time I've used one) there is less value to it than in looking at Day 1, because Day 2 features a lot more lists and will naturally be heavily weighted, not just toward those who post the most, but toward those who are accumulating votes.

However...

That isn't to say there's nothing to observe. While it makes sense that, as the two most-voted-for candidates, Nog and I were tied in my unscientific reckoning with 57 mentioning/quoting posts each, the opposite end--with only 13 mentioning/quoting posts each--are Greenie and Lommy. For context, the next lowest is Sally, who is still making up a deficit of attention, at 18.

Now, that isn't to say that either of them are Wolves, but they are each 100% under-the-radar and, given our lack of success as a village catching any wolves, deserve some more scrutiny.

Not statistically-driven, I'm still suspicious of Pitchwife and Kath, and nothing that has happened overNight has shaken me--if anything, the fact that a BG Kill can be plausibly interpreted as an oblique means of pushing attention in my direction, I feel slightly more confirmed in suspicions. Although, push comes to shove, I think I am more concerned about Kath now, if I have to pick one of the two of them. Although Pitch has been more rambunctious (picking up a few "giving me Cobbler-vibes" around the village, and--more to the point--engaged me directly, whereas Kath didn't really engage. That could just be timezones--but she was around to vote after I did--and it could be Wolvish. It could also be both.

On the other hand...

Not counting the Medium-vote, Nog had four votes--and Pitch was one of them. Of Rikae, Legate, Brinn and himself, I find him the most suspicious, but I suspected him to begin with. Two Wolves in this batch would not surprise me; more than that would. If I had to pick a second Wolf from their number right now, I would incline toward Legate or Brinn. Rikae I trust, though for no reason I can pin down. Legate probably SHOULD get the greater scrutiny, given Nog's repeated unease with him, but Nog knew as little for certain as we do, so I don't rate Legate that much more suspicious than Brinn.

[Macalaure]

Not much to say about the night kill. "Will I dream Dave" plus leaving out the seer in her gifted discussion... Yeah, maybe it's a too obvious hint, as Brinn said, but it would be near negligent of the wolves to discount it for that.

Originally Posted by BG

4 Wolves
Form, Nog, Legate, Nilp, Sally (post 14 & 220)

Especially if there's a wolf, or maybe even two, in this list, I could see their alarm bells ringing. Naturally Form in particular looks bad. Then again, she underlined him just as she did with Nogrod, so that doesn't make sense. (edit: the underlining doesn't show in the quote, come on Downs!)


On to the votes:

Greenie -> Kath - no issues here
BG -> Form
Form -> Kath - if you were to interpret this vote very sinisterly, Form could see himself in danger of being lynched from afar and tries to back the first best choice to compete with him. The suspicion of Kath he voiced before sounds a bit generic.
Mac -> Nilp
Nilp -> Mac - not going to go into this one again...
Lommy -> Form - suspected him all along, but only because he feels wrong to her, so that's not much
Kath -> Nilp - Form's vote for Kath makes it fairly unlikely that they are wolves together, so that makes this vote look fairly good.
Rikae -> Nogrod - and here we go with the late-start Nogwaggon. Rikae hadn't posted in a while before voting, and their reasoning before focused on his implication of Lottie's death. I'm a bit at a loss here.
Legate -> Nogrod - x'ed with Rikae. Nog had been over him all day, so this vote seems understandable, if a bit knee-jerk. I don't think either Rikae or Legate expected their vote to take off like it did.
Nogrod -> Form
Pitch -> Nogrod - this is the interesting Nog vote, I think. Pitch only mentions him in an early-day list of suspects and other than that keeps his options very wide open. Also, in #316 he mentions all that had votes at the time except Kath. So this makes me think they may be wolves together. Then again, I don't actually think Kath is that suspicious, so these two pieces don't fit right now. Unless if Form is innocent, but that's too many ifs right here.
Sally -> Kath - trying to save Nog, which is fine... Sally: why Kath and not Form?
Brinn -> Nogrod - been after him all day, so due to consistency this vote is less suspicious than it would otherwise be
Shasta -> Form - even without the medium this vote would have been inconsequential, so there's not much to make of it. He did mention reasonable suspicion of Form before, for what it's worth.

There's a Pitch-Kath-Form thing to untangle here.


Also, I know this is Day1 talk, but it only just occurred to me. There's been talk about the NW sacrificing themself. Just acting suspicious and getting lynched, however, is awfully inefficient. They could fake-gifted reveal and have an innocent lynched or a real gifted flushed out and then go down in infamy the next Day. It might already be too late for that at this point though.


Lastly, while it's possible that Hui and Lottie made Brinn the medium for the entertainment value, but I'm going to give them the benefit of the doubt (yes, I know, they're just ordos, too) and will give her a pass for toDay, not that I was really suspicious of her to begin with.

[Pitchwife]

Actually this from Mac earlier toDay

Originally Posted by Macalaure

Also, I know this is Day1 talk, but it only just occurred to me. There's been talk about the NW sacrificing themself. Just acting suspicious and getting lynched, however, is awfully inefficient. They could fake-gifted reveal and have an innocent lynched or a real gifted flushed out and then go down in infamy the next Day. It might already be too late for that at this point though.

makes me wonder whether Mac and Nilp aren't wolves together and blithely wolf-on-wolfed yesterDay.

[Macalaure]

- could be the true beast hunter, except: why is he giving away which day he's protecting himself? It might be a trap for the wolves, but he would also be laying a trap for the ranger, who may be compelled to protect him in his off-nights. Then again, one way or another, their next kill will either be wasted or Nilp takes one down with him.

- could be the cobbler. Then again, the seer thing could have killed him if I actually had been a wolf, and making the wolves kill you is a terrible way to go for a cobbler.

- could be the night wolf stirring things up before going down, kind of what I said a while ago.

But I don't see any reason to not believe him at this point, actually. The only thing wolfNilp would gain is that he gets to stay alive for a while, since for the village, not voting for him is the only actual adjustment, and there'd still be 3 other wolves available for lynching. If he's bluffing, we'll get to him eventually.

[A Little Green]

RL sidenote - my stupid back is acting up again today so I won't be able to be around as much as I'd like for the rest of the Day. I wanted to read through Pitch and Lommy but that will have to wait Just quickly for now -

Originally Posted by Pitch

At first sight it looks like a more complicated way of suicide, but it's actually quite brilliant. The wolves can't know whether he single-, double- or triple-bluffed about last Night, so in the worst case he'd be dead toMorrow, in the best case they'd have to use two Night kills on him to make sure, sacrificing one of their own in the process, and can't go after anybody else in the meantime.

If he's a fake-revealing wolf, on the other hand, he has a perfect explanation for his continued survival by claiming the wolves were reluctant to take the risk.

I agree with the first scenario. The second would be an odd move from a Nilpwolf who isn't really under fire at the moment anyway. Like, what would be the point - revealing himself in order to try and out the actual Beast Hunter and, if successful, just end up with the first scenario? I'm good believing Nilp for now. If he's bluffing we'll know soon enough.

Originally Posted by Pitch

Actually this from Mac earlier toDay

makes me wonder whether Mac and Nilp aren't wolves together and blithely wolf-on-wolfed yesterDay.

This makes no sense. If Mac and Nilp were wolves together and Mac wanted to tell Nilp (or his pack in general) that a fake Gifted reveal would be a good idea, why on earth would he do it on the thread instead of in a PM at night?

There was a bunch of stuff from earlier on that I wanted to comment on, I'll try to get back to it soon!

[Boromir88]

Wanted to let everyone know I’m typing this from my phone because I just lost power in my neighborhood. Not sure when it will come back (hopefully soon because it’s 95 degrees today and means my AC is out now too :-/).

I’ll be able to use data and get on my phone to close down the day. And at least try to reveal the role of whoever’s lynched in a timely manner. If you don’t hear from me by 9pm GMT with an update on my power situation that’s the plan.

Or perhaps someone in the Dead thread can kindly close it down? :-(

[Shastanis Althreduin]

Here and reading. May start the voting early just for fun. Maybe.

[Pitchwife]

Originally Posted by A Little Green

RL sidenote - my stupid back is acting up again

Heile heile segen...


While I mull over the Nilp situation, a thought about the Night kill. In her seer-hinting post, BG listed Formy and Nog as the most likely wolves, followed by Legate on third rank. We now know that Nog was innocent, and we don't know yet what Formy is, but it's startling that the first two Night kills were possibly seerish looking people who suspected Legate.



Speaking of Nog, I should address this:

Originally Posted by Thinlómien

Looking at yesterDay's votes, Pitch and Brinn's look the worst to me - they were the ones that cemented Nog's fate. I agree with whoever said Rikae and Legate probably didn't expect their votes to take off like that - unless Form and Kath are BOTH wolves, introducing a last minute wagon for an innocent who'd been widely suspected isn't the most likely wolf move. But Pitch and Brinn were the ones that wanted Nog dead rather than Kath or Form. Perhaps Kath and Form are both innocent too, but I really hope not (or we're even more misguided than I thought).

You agree with whoever that Rikae and Legate didn't expect Nog to gain further votes and in the same breath call him 'widely suspected'. Where is the logic in this, Doctor?[/SPOCK]
As for my vote, well - what do you do when one of your suspects (Formy) votes the other (Kath)? How do you determine which of the two you were wrong about? I didn't feel up to wrapping my head around the question at this (for me) late hour, so I looked for a third option. I had been suspicious of Nog earlier, mainly for his IMHO (pace Nog's ghost!) forced suspicion of Hui and (to me) unconvincing defense thereof, so there I went. I could have gone for Nilp, but didn't have a strong enough impression of him.

[Macalaure]

Leaning good about:
Greenie - not seeing anything suspicious really, but my gut feeling doesn't agree
Brinn - feels innocent to me
Kath - I'm a bit back-and-forth with her, but good for now
Nilp - might be leading us astray big time, but if so, it will show eventually
Lommy - always looks innocent to me no matter her role, so I'm not putting too much stock in my feeling here

No idea:
Legate - still meaning to get to him
Sally - hasn't done anything to be suspicious, but hasn't done anything to be not suspicious either.
Rikae - huge question mark
Shasta - still doesn't feel right, but I can't put my finger on it

Leaning bad about:
Form - not-so-great votes both days, puts too much into the posts vs. mentions thing
Pitch - not-so-great votes both days, I felt better about him yesterday, not so much today.

Originally Posted by Greenie

This makes no sense. If Mac and Nilp were wolves together and Mac wanted to tell Nilp (or his pack in general) that a fake Gifted reveal would be a good idea, why on earth would he do it on the thread instead of in a PM at night?

I had about the same thing typed out when I saw this.

[Rikae]

So, let's just envision a scenario where Form is a wolf and Brinn and Mac are innocent, shall we?

Who are Form's packmates? I have a feeling he's the NW and deliberately living dangerously, so I'm not ruling out some intense wolf-on-wolf.

Greenie- Added another name (Pitch) Day 1 when Form was in the lead with two votes (vs Nilp and Hui with one)
Kath - Put Hui firmly in the lead Day 1 with 4 votes, when Form & Nilp had 2. Form suggests she's a packmate of Pitch in #213.
Legate - Kept Form in the running Day 1 with his 3rd vote. Reasoning and vote look innocentish.
Nilp - I'm going to provisionally accept his reveal.
Pitch - Did some silly/bantery cobbler accusation of Form day 1, then ... conspicuously ignores him?
sally - Random looking bantery accusation of Form in her first post, then also, unless I'm missing something, ignores him?
Shasta- Form suggested he was gifted on Day 2. Obviously if he really thought so he could have said it at night. A "slip" to make Shasta look more innocent?
Put Form in the lead day 2 without comment, ahead of Nog (momentarily)
Lommy - Voted for Nilp day 1 tying him with Form, called Form her other main suspect, "Currently slightly leaning "innocent whose brain works in a way I don't understand"" To me this looks somewhat wolfy
Day 2: Pushed Form into a tie with Kath with his 2nd vote

Pitch, Sally, Lommy and Greenie are looking worth looking at, to me.

[Shastanis Althreduin]

Rikae - don't think that's quite true regarding my vote, on account of Mac saying it didn't matter (honestly, that particular wording struck me as performatively dismissive, which is why I remember him saying it.)

[Rikae]

Originally Posted by Shastanis Althreduin

Rikae - don't think that's quite true regarding my vote, on account of Mac saying it didn't matter (honestly, that particular wording struck me as performatively dismissive, which is why I remember him saying it.)

That it put Form in the lead or "without comment"?

[Pitchwife]

Originally Posted by Rikae

Pitch - Did some silly/bantery cobbler accusation of Form day 1, then ... conspicuously ignores him?

Did you read any of my posts from yesterDay at all? I mean, I questioned him quite a few times, so how you can write this without deliberately ignoring evidence eludes me. *ping*

[satansaloser2005]

Originally Posted by Rikae

So, let's just envision a scenario where Form is a wolf and Brinn and Mac are innocent, shall we?

Who are Form's packmates? I have a feeling he's the NW and deliberately living dangerously, so I'm not ruling out some intense wolf-on-wolf.


sally - Random looking bantery accusation of Form in her first post, then also, unless I'm missing something, ignores him?

Do you mean that Day or the entire game? Because I think I've made it consistently clear I suspect Form of cobblery at the very least.


Just saw this and wanted to get the clarification while I was thinking about it.

[Rikae]

Interesting.

Originally Posted by satansaloser2005

Do you mean that Day or the entire game? Because I think I've made it consistently clear I suspect Form of cobblery at the very least.


Just saw this and wanted to get the clarification while I was thinking about it.

A suspicion of cobblery is kind of protective, in effect.

That it put Form in the lead. It tied him with Nog, but wouldn't Nog still have died due to tiebreaker? That's the impression I got from Mac.

Okay, fair enough. That actually works out to making your vote safer, though ... ?

Originally Posted by Pitch

Did you read any of my posts from yesterDay at all? I mean, I questioned him quite a few times, so how you can write this without deliberately ignoring evidence eludes me. *ping*

Maybe I didn't. Maybe I had other reasons for saying it. Would that make me a wolf?