Tol-in-Gaurhoth CXV: On the Borders of Mirkwood - Dead Thread

[Blind Guardian]

Hey all!

Glad to be here. I am not at all surprised the Wolves killed me. I was thinking at the end of yesterDay that the Wolves would kill me. I really stink at this game and went and reread the roles after the end of last Day.

I'm going to be reading over this thread in a bit. Y'all better not be talking about me

[Nogrod]

I somehow have a feeling people like Greenie, Lommy and Legate might be behind this. It would be amazing if the trio would all be wolves, but there's something in this choice that points to that general direction.

[Blind Guardian]

First off, I'm loving Hui's quotes and image at the beginning of this thread. Love the Wolf that says "ordinary villager" artwork!

Originally Posted by Formendacil

Huh... Blind Guardian is a surprise.

Not really.

Originally Posted by Formendacil

Unless the Wolves though her "discuss the Gifteds" actions yesterDay were a sign of Giftedness, the only thing I see them gaining is a lack of a trail.

This is what I'm leaning towards. I was either a Gifted (Seer) kill or another Villager. Which makes me either a good kill or an easy stab at an Innocent.

At this point they have:

4 Wolves
1 Cobbler

1 Seer
1 Ranger
1 Beast Hunter
4 Villagers

So 5/7 bad/good

If they still think that the Cobbler is either Form, Nilp, or Pitch and the Wolves choose not to attack any of them toNight then the bad guys still have a pretty good chance of killing a Gifted or another Innocent (especially if another Inno is lynched). Although it would be pertinent for the Seer to throw Cobbler vibes. I think either Nilp or Pitch is either a Cob or a Seer (I guess I should add Form to that list since people seem to think he is a Cobbler but that's not my choice).

I also love that Brinn pointed out my "Will I dream Dave?" title. I knew I would die for that post so I went back and added that (cause HAL says that as it dies in 2001 Space Odyssey + Sheila in Red vs Blue as she "dies"). Oh well.

I really wanted to also quote the Gravemind from Halo 2 "This is not your grave but you are welcome in it..."

Never got a chance.

Or did I...?

[Loslote]

Wolves never try to kill ordinary villagers, it doesn't do them any good. Far, far better to go for a Gifted even if you risk hitting the Cobbler. If they killed you, it was because they thought you were their best chance at a Gifted.

[Blind Guardian]

That makes sense.

I would like to point out that Rikae voted for both hS and Nog and both of them ended up lynched. Rikae was also the second person to vote for hS (Shasta was the first) and the first person to vote for Nog:

Day 1
2354: Brinn – BG
2355: Form – Nilp
2334: Greenie – Pitch
2348: Kath –hS
2355: Legate – Form
2340: Lommy – Nilp
2356: Mac – Pitch
0609: Nilp – Nilp
2355: Pitch – Kath
2339: Rikae – hS
2208: Sally – none
2246: Shasta - hS

Day 2
2155: Brinniel - Nog
2130: Form - Kath
1956: Greenie - Kath
2151: Kath - Nilp
2152: Legate - Nog
2144: Lommy - Form
2137: Mac - Nilp
2137: Nilp - Mac
2154: Pitch - Nog
2152: Rikae - Nog
2155: Sally - Nog
2200: Shasta - Form

Attachment is LEFT: data in order by name. RIGHT: order by time.

[Huinesoron]

Thanks for the vote tallies, BG! Looking at how we (in)Glorious Dead voted:

On Day 1, two of us voted for Form, and one for Legate (& one for me). Legate is now the only surviving Form voter from Day 1.

On Day 2, both BG and Nog voted... Form.

Okay, seriously: Form can't possibly be a wolf, right? No pack would allow a Day Three where 4 of the 6 votes cast by the dead were for one of their own. Right?

Looking at the voting times: that Nog-wagon really did come out of nowhere in terms of actual votes. They were all in the final nine minutes! Checking both days, the names that pop out as 'late & secured an innocent kill' are:

• Pitch (throwaway vote Day 1, first to join the Nog-wagon Day 2 after being able to see it already had votes)
• Brinn (throwaway when I was at 4 votes Day 1, final nail in Nog's coffin Day 2).

I feel like Rikae's early vote is actually a point in their favour. Would a wolf set themselves up as the instigator of multiple innocent lynches?

---

Something Mac said struck me as suspicious:

Originally Posted by Mac

Lastly, while it's possible that Hui and Lottie made Brinn the medium for the entertainment value, but I'm going to give them the benefit of the doubt (yes, I know, they're just ordos, too) and will give her a pass for toDay

But... why though? I know he doesn't know when we voted, but a) we know nothing, and b) our vote killed an innocent! Combine this with his first comment after the night-kill:

Originally Posted by Mac

I believe you owe the good man an answer, you bloodthirsty lot!

I may be biased by already knowing why Lottie thinks she was killed, but trying to push Day Three's discussion back to the Day One night-kill seems pretty counterproductive, as well as a neat way of pushing attention onto Anyone But Him.

hS

[Huinesoron]

Um.

Looking back over that last post: what if we have a pack who are deliberately looking wolfish?

Because everyone has spent a lot of time saying 'That suspicious behaviour is too obvious for a [wolf/seer]!', and then focussing on the less-obviously-suspicious people. So a defense of 'Form can't be a wolf, why would the wolves kill all his voters?' and 'Rikae can't be a wolf, why would a wolf position themselves at the head of a lynch?' would probably hold up, at least for a day or so.

And... a day or so is all they need. If they can avoid losing a wolf toDay, and get a clean kill toNight, they'll be at 5 evil, 5 good, and all they need is the Cobbler to identify themselves and mass-vote for a single candidate. As we saw last game with Brinn's virtuoso performance as Seer, a 'reveal and we win' message is a very plausible way to pull off a victory.

This would work best if the wolves have a good idea of who the Cobbler is, since whichever pack member makes the request would presumably(?) attract immediate votes from all the innocents, so they'd have to time it well.

Quick maths-check for if they fail:

Day Four: 4w, 1c, 5i
-One wolf posts to say 'Cobbler, vote for X if and only if I have not already received 5 votes'. Wolf receives 5 votes; Cobbler stays hidden. Wolf leaves instructions for Cobbler to vote for the same villager ASAP the next day (assuming one innocent and no wolves die in the night). Wolf lynched

Night 5: 3w, 1c, 5i
-Innocent night-killed.

Day 5: 3w, 1c, 4i
-Cobbler votes immediately after DL for the designated target. Wolves mass vote. Innocent lynched, because they got 4 votes first.

Night 6: 3w, 1c, 3i
-Innocent night-killed. Might even be the Cobbler, as least-likely to be BH protected. Wolf victory.

It's a plan that could definitely be derailed by a Gifted, but if it worked... come to think of it, they don't even need the Cobbler: all they need on Day 4 is for the first vote cast to be innocent-on-innocent, and they can mass-vote and win.

So we really need to kill a wolf toDay, because otherwise it's all up to the Gifted.

hS