Tol-in-Gaurhoth CXV: On the Borders of Mirkwood - Dead Thread

[Huinesoron]

"Tol-in-Gaurhoth was a democracy - one man, one vote. The Moderator was the Man, and he had the Vote." - Orodreth, I suppose.

Huinesoron's Analysis of Day 1, Part 2: The Vote

Unlike most votes in the last game, this wasn't a two-horse race, and that means there's a lot of potential information there - hooray! Let's get to it. From Boro's DL-minus-5 tally:

Nilp > Nilp
Sally > No Vote
Shasta > Huey
Huey > Form
BG > Form (2)
Greenie > Pitch
Rikae > Huey (2)
Lommy > Nilp (2)
Nog > Huey (3)
Lottie > Legate
Kath > Huey (4)
Brinn > BG
Legate > Form (3)
Form > Nilp (3)
Pitch > Kath
Mac > Pitch (2)

• Nilp - classic self-vote. No information there, he has to.
• Sally - ill. No information.
• Shasta - not an unreasonable vote.
• Huinesoron - I was right in every particular, obviously.
• Blind Guardian - feels like a new player latching onto whatever they can, and trying to pick a safe vote, but is that a wolfy new player or an innocent one? Their reply to Kath (#82), adding suspicion of Sally 'because she's sick' looks wolfy, and the fact that they agreed with Kath's +- of me but then followed my vote isn't really consistent.
• Greenie - Continued her previous suspicion, adding a new name to a 2/1/1 field. She could be protecting Form, I suppose, but this looks fine.
• Rikae - As I said last time, a fair vote.
• Lommy - Voted Nilp, taking us to 2/2/2/1 - a level field. If she's a wolf, that might suggest neither Form nor Nilp are, since a level field of villagers is a wolf's playground. But... honestly, she says Nilp looks Cobblerish, and he does.
• Nog - I don't like this (and not just because he voted me!). Unlike me, he made no indication that he was pressed for time, so he could absolutely have gone back to check whether I ever suspected Form. Instead, he just based his comments, and his vote, on my own final post. He also 'misread' the rules earlier, despite them being identical to the rules of his own game when it comes to dead wolves. I just feel like he's doing all this on purpose, and hiding behind 'it was an honest mistake'.
• Lottie - Legate for his roundup post looking too waffly. I... did she suspect anyone at any point? I was actually feeling worried about her for her several defences of me; a good strategy if WolfLottie could tell I was heading for a fall.
• Kath - Took me to 4, way out ahead of the rest of the field, essentially for information. Running the maths, three of the five players who hadn't voted yet would need to act in concert to save me, so this is dodgy as all get out. We only have four wolves - was she expecting all three to not have voted and to pile on to preserve my hide? I also don't think she ever addressed her clearly-false claim that I hadn't said anything, and I'm not the only one who flagged that.
• Brinn - Added a new candidate to a field of four, with four other players to vote. They would all have to go for BG for them to be killed, and this wasn't a cross-posted vote either.
• Legate - Voted Form as potential Cobbler. If he didn't think I was guilty, this or Nilp was the best choice.
• Form - Crossed with Legate, which means this vote has exactly the same vote as Legate's, except with even less choice to make.
• Pitch - Voted Kath at the last minute. Even if we assume he crossed with the last three votes, this was a throwaway vote. He offers no explanation, and his only comments on her have mostly been tied up in my paranoia. Dodgy.
• Mac - Voted Pitch at the last minute. Before or after seeing his vote? Either way, this was a throwaway. That said, he had raised the possibility in his second post, six minutes earlier. So... it was a prepared throwaway.

Based on that, here's my list of 'suspicious or not':

hS thinks evil:
-Nog
-Lottie?
-Kath
-Brinn
-Pitch

hS is neutral:
-Nilp (but might be a cobbler - those boots!)
-Sally
-Form
-Mac

hS thinks innocent:
-Shasta
-Greenie
-Rikae
-Lommy
-Legate

This was my problem yesterDay: my biggest 'evil' reads were on people who suspected me. But with more time to look back, I still think they're dodgy.

I would guess one of the final group will join me here toMorrow, and would consider any of them as a possible Medium. If one of the 'evil' group winds up night-killed, I'll need to do a total reevaluataion. (I can't imagine a Neutral will - Nilp is on his first game back, Sally is ill, Form was the person a lynched innocent voted for, and Mac's lack of posting makes him look generally suspicious.)

hS

[Huinesoron]

"A picture lynches a thousand words." - Sounds like Ar-Pharazon the Cobbler

I drew this the other day as part of a birthday present for my mother. Consider it my gift to mislynched Ordos and undercover wolves alike.



Whoever joins me here: welcome! I will laugh so hard if you're the Cobbler.

hS

[Boromir88]

Yes, yesterday was a more typical day 1 voting than Nog's game.

Love the drawing!

[Boromir88]

The Dead

Boro (Mod)
Huinesoron (Villager)
Loslote (Villager)

----

It is Day 2.

Welcome Loslote.

You and Huey will have to vote for the same person, among the living, to be the Medium today. You are allowed to retract your votes, by

--Boro

But as soon as you both vote for the same person (if you decide to) the voting is over and the person you chose is automatically the Medium.

[Loslote]

Well, I was trying to draw the wolf kill, I was just hoping the Ranger or Beast Hunter would pick up on the Seer hints.

[Huinesoron]

'allo Lottie, sorry you're dead; well done on not being Gifted. Of all the people I called evil last Night, you're the one I'm happiest to be wrong about. I was just feeling really suspicious that anyone could look at me and not think wolf.

hS

[Loslote]

Originally Posted by Huinesoron

'allo Lottie, sorry you're dead; well done on not being Gifted. Of all the people I called evil last Night, you're the one I'm happiest to be wrong about. I was just feeling really suspicious that anyone could look at me and not think wolf.

hS

I was pretty sure you were innocent, so I tried to broadcast "Seer kinda annoyed that her N1 dream was being lynched" as hard as I could.

[Loslote]

Also, my instinct when you were jumpy about me and Kath was that you might be Gifted. I eventually realized you weren't going to reveal and just voted for my top suspicion at the time (Legate, though I would now add Nog).

[Huinesoron]

Originally Posted by Loslote

I was pretty sure you were innocent, so I tried to broadcast "Seer kinda annoyed that her N1 dream was being lynched" as hard as I could.

Looks like it worked! Like you say, it's a shame nobody protected you; but equally, as Ordos it's kind of our job to draw fire for the good of the village. It just... rather sucks when it works.

hS