Tol-in-Gaurhoth CXIV – The Evil Breath of Morgoth in Dor-lómin, game thread

[Shastanis Althreduin]

Originally Posted by Boromir88

And

1a) After not falling for it. Granted I only tried to for like 2 days, once it turned out Lhuna was a wolf. I said what the heck, go for it and lay it on thick.

But wasn't convincing so now I'm probably being kept as an easy lynch. Can't deny no one really trusted me, except for the QT for 1.5 days. If they didn't fall for it, the pattern seems to be kill the people who look obviously innocent/difficult to lynch.

Eonwe and myself are the new Zil and Mac. At least that's what my thoughts are now. With my luck the QT innocents will now vote for me, because I ruined their trust and they're probably ****ed off. I still will tell them though, no rash decisions, I did all that I could to try to let the QT know I wasn't the seer. I thought it would send a good enough signal if they saw no purpose to what I was proposing and figured I'd be dead by now anyway.

Genuinely not seeing Boro's side, why he thinks himself an easy lynch. Ka and Eonwe both go before Boro, IMO.

[Shastanis Althreduin]

++Ka

It's fine to go for Eonwe here too. Don't vote Lottie or Greenie.

[Kath]

Originally Posted by Boro

Can't deny no one really trusted me, except for the QT for 1.5 days.

I think Pitch did, actually. Like I said when I went through his posts, he definitely backed off quite quickly after initially engaging with Boro at the start of the Day.

[Thinlómien]

Typical of the ball to start rolling just as I have to get to cooking dinner etc but -

I might prefer Eönwë over Ka just to relieve him of his suffering earlier

I'll be popping in and out for the rest of the Day but you can consider my werewolf fatigue greatly alleviated and my vote for Eönwë or Ka guaranteed.

[Thinlómien]

I almost feel like patting Boro on the head (if he's not guilty that is ).

For the record, your paranoia about a potential last-minute bandwagon against you greatly added to my belief that you were the seer

[Eönwë]

Originally Posted by Kath

I think Pitch did, actually. Like I said when I went through his posts, he definitely backed off quite quickly after initially engaging with Boro at the start of the Day.

Pitch definitely seems to have bought Boro's fake reveal.

Originally Posted by Thinlómien

I'm very confused all in all but - Eönwë, what post do you refer to? Why is the jury only "maybe" out on me?

Boro's post, quoted yet again:

Originally Posted by Boromir88

I would say most of our days have gone far too narrow. We put ourselves into pretty much just 2 options. Day 1 was G55 and Brinn. Day 2 Mac and Huey, Yesterday Inzil and sally. Today Lommy and Inzil.

I don't know a whole lot about the advocates for it, but I think we need a day where there's a lot more spread. Force the wolves into some tougher choices, instead of just picking between 2 innocents or whether they wanted to bus wolf-Huey or not.

I felt like one possible interpretation is that in talking about innocents he may have only been talking about previous Days - and this seems to have maybe been the interpretation taken by Lalaith because she only pushes him on Day 1 (Brinn) and Zil (Day 3). But upon reread it does seem less likely.

[Loslote]

Originally Posted by Thinlómien

I still don't suspect Lottie really (unless maybe if Boro turns out to be a wolf??) but her list made me raise about five eyebrows. What's the difference between "probably innocent" and "probably not a wolf"?? Like is there a middle ground? Also why on earth would you list yourself as "probably innocent"? Shouldn't you be more sure about that????

Originally I had only two groups, but I got nervous about being that confident about so many people, so I split the innocent group and put Boro and Rune into a slightly less confident group. Also, yes, I am very confident that I am innocent! But with the village getting so small, it was helpful for me at least to write out all of the names, and see who's left on the other side: Ka, Eonwe, Brinn, and Shasta (but only by default).

[Shastanis Althreduin]

Originally Posted by Loslote

Originally I had only two groups, but I got nervous about being that confident about so many people, so I split the innocent group and put Boro and Rune into a slightly less confident group. Also, yes, I am very confident that I am innocent! But with the village getting so small, it was helpful for me at least to write out all of the names, and see who's left on the other side: Ka, Eonwe, Brinn, and Shasta (but only by default).

I'm so sad that your only feeling about me is default.

[Loslote]

Originally Posted by Shastanis Althreduin

I'm so sad that your only feeling about me is default.

My gut feeling is to trust you. I just don't think I have enough logic to back that up, so I won't commit to your innocence based only on a feeling.

[Eönwë]

I still see no good reason for Boro to try what he did as an innocent for the reason he gave. It required him to really really strongly believe that Brinn, Zil, and Lommy were good and I was evil, and I find it very unlikely that any innocent is confident enough to do that and take such a gamble.

On the other hand, if he's a wolf, getting those innocents on his side would be a good way to softly take control of the village and exert some influence - he both gets to be listened to, and gets to hush discussion of a possible slip he made. A nice attempt at a save, but I still don't buy it.


+- Boro

[Rune Son of Bjarne]

So yet another list from my hand… Inspired by Lottie.
This is not a thorough summarization of pros and cons, just a status on my feelings right now.

Big ol' wolf
Eönwë - Seriously let's get this done.

Possible wolf:
Brinn - My initial suspicion of her dwindled somewhat, probably due to her voting pattern and her playing it pretty safe.

Seems more innocent than not
Ka - I haven’t personally spotted any clear wolf like behaviour, but I see suspicion is mounting.
Boro - I assumed him the seer. Right now I believe him innocent. But it is a confusing plot, that could be devious.
Shasta - Probably the person I have the least read on.
Lottie - I started thinking Lottie looked very suspicious, but as the game progresses I think she makes more and more sense.

Probably innocent:
Lommy - Hmm there was the whole Sally thing so maybe she belong further up the list, but otherwise I feel really good about Lommy.
Greenie - Nothing but good vibes, she over analyzes stuff though.
Kath - Seems Kath-like and helpful (in the innocent way)

I have a toddler feeling ill at home, and a girlfriend taking an exam, so I will be voting shortly. Just in case. I will in all likelihood vote for Eönwë.

[Shastanis Althreduin]

Originally Posted by Rune Son of Bjarne

Shasta - Probably the person I have the least read on.

My feelings!

[A Little Green]

Originally Posted by Rune

Greenie - Nothing but good vibes, she over analyzes stuff though.

This is basically my life in a nutshell.

I won’t be able to stay around until DL toDay, so I’ll go with my best lead and vote

++THE Ka

In short –

I've been wondering about her for a while now. Her interactions with both known wolves are compatible with them being fellows; they don’t really interact at all except for Ka posting an oddly long bit on D1 about Lhuna’s time constraints and how they make her hard to read (I’m not sure if a Ka who wasn’t Lhuna’s packmate would have had cause to think about this or at least not in that much detail; this is a tiny thing but as their pretty much only interaction it did catch my eye), and then being the first to vote Lhuna after the QT vote. I agree with Boro’s assessment of this being a potentially easy wolf-on-wolf vote as she just followed the QT and thus made herself look good in case Lhuna was lynched while not giving other prospective voters any further reasons to vote her.

Additionally, since Inzil was innocent after all, this makes me rethink Ka’s reaction to Kitanna’s slip. She seconded Inzil calling it curious and thus contributed to flushing out a likely Gifted, but then stayed out of the ensuing discussion with Kit herself. Consequently, she evaded basically all of the scrutiny and suspicion that followed for Inzil, Lhuna, and to some extent Pitch.

So no, I haven’t actually caught her slipping or doing anything outrageous, but I wouldn’t expect to. I refer back to what I said on D1 about how she seems very reasonable but this doesn’t give us anything as she’s just as reasonable when she’s evil.

[Brinniel]

About to hop on a meeting, so I'm doing this now:

++Ka

[A Little Green]

Originally Posted by Lommy

Yes, unless Brinn is a wolf. (Or for argument's sake: if I was.)

That's fair actually. Hm...

Anyway, regardless of all this madness, THE Ka is still the likeliest wolf in my book. I'm on the fence about Rune and Brinn, second-guessing Lottie (Lommy is right, that list was weird) and somewhat Eonwe too, and starting to get paranoid about Kath. I'm feeling pretty good about Lommy and Shasta, and will now stop talking about Boro because that's what he deserves.

[Boromir88]

Originally Posted by A Little Green

Anyway, regardless of all this madness, THE Ka is still the likeliest wolf in my book. I'm on the fence about Rune and Brinn, second-guessing Lottie (Lommy is right, that list was weird) and somewhat Eonwe too, and starting to get paranoid about Kath. I'm feeling pretty good about Lommy and Shasta, and will now stop talking about Boro because that's what he deserves.

Fair enough, I'll just say though, I'm not the only one dropping seer hinting like crazy over the last couple days. I feel like we have 5 seers or none.

To answer Lommy on my real impressions...

I genuinely think I have a good read on Lommy, so sorry for you to find out I often include you in planning. It's just a habit, you're someone I read well.

I also feel good about Kath. Her questioning were like the few moments of clarity I had, because I don't feel like I'm getting tricked.

Lottie after I caused a disturbance Day 4, also someone I put in "trust."

Greenie I lean innocent, but not someone I would say I "trust."

Unsure about Rune and Shasta at the moment, because they're going with the seer vibes, which could be innocent as well, but after I came out with the truth they could be trying to seize on an opportunity. As they add to my feeling that we have all these seers, but none at the same time.

Eonwe and Brinn I could vote for either today, but not my preference. I think we need (or maybe just myself) a full day of rethinking since I kind of threw a big wrench at everyone today.

Ka as my preferred choice and vote today.

[Boromir88]

Originally Posted by Thinlómien

Hmmm. I reread Boro's non-reveal. I think I have been thinking him the seer for longer than he has pretended to be one, so perhaps I should blame mostly myself... I thought it explained not only some of his cryptic comments, but also why he gave me both unusual and innocent vibes, why he chose to act so weird on Day1, and why he's been so adamant about my innocence when basically everyone else has questioned it (and perhaps why he did such a legate180 about Brinn). I think his reveal sounds fairly innocent (why would a wolf do any of this? or admit it?), but I would like to ask him more than ever give his updated, honest opinion of everyone - but in particular Eönwë, Brinn and myself.

In my own self-quarantine I've been going back to the earliest of earliest beginnings. I miss the banter and the "I suspect SPM because I was woken up by pots and pans banging" or "I saw horse prints at the scene, it has to be Firefoot!" Or how I nicknamed SPM, Spam, because of his habit to have long novels of analysis and theory on everyone and every topic.

Now everyone hates Day 1s. And the longer I stay around, the tighter things get, the more tense I get because I don't want my natural weirdness to cause irreparable damage. In the banter you can find the some of the best and most entertaining interactions.

Like, fair enough if he was pretending to have dreamt of innocent me and Brinn. But how did he know Inzil was innocent?

I don't think I did say anything about knowing Zil's innocence? It was G55 and Brinn Day 1. Day 2 Huey and Mac. Day 3 everyone voted sally, there was no other wagon.

Not sure what to make of Boro's newborn fatalism. Also:

I TRUSTED YOU BUT I COULDN'T SAY IT TOO OPENLY BECAUSE I THOUGHT YOU WERE THE SEER AND IT WAS BETTER TO KEEP ENOUGH VOICED SUSPICION ON YOU TO KEEP YOU ALIVE.

I took that as seriously no one trusted me. Like an "Ok I can lynch Boro whenever because he's weird." I mean, what you say in hindsight makes sense. At the time I was twitchy by all the suspicion people were tossing around, without actually getting the votes. Hence the nerves after sally's reveal that there could be a bandwagon against me.

Originally Posted by Shastanis Althreduin

Genuinely not seeing Boro's side, why he thinks himself an easy lynch. Ka and Eonwe both go before Boro, IMO.

Whenever I'm in these villages, I always feel like it won't take a lot for a bandwagon. Someone says they're the hunter/ranger/seer and it's "well let's lynch Boro." QT votes and it doesn't take a lot of convincing to hop on that train.

[Loslote]

Just from a very quick scan of yesterDay's posts, I found a couple of posts from Shasta that looked Seerish. If that was on purpose to draw fire, well done, Shasta.

Originally Posted by Shastanis Althreduin

++Ka

It's fine to go for Eonwe here too. Don't vote Lottie or Greenie.

This one in particular REALLY sounds like a Seer who might've dreamed me and Greenie innocent, and may have even dreamed Ka and Eonwe guilty. Followed by:

Originally Posted by Shastanis Althreduin

I think at this point if I had to pick a third wolf for an Eonwe/Ka duo it would be Brinn. Outside shot at Kath, maybe - I've barely looked at her.

Which sounds a lot like "I'm going to dream Brinn next; I haven't dreamed of Kath, don't assume I have just because I've said she looks okay."

I haven't looked past yesterDay, but at this point I sort of assume the wolves are looking for Seer clues in the more recent Days. The Seer has more info now than they did early, so there might be more clues to find.

[Boromir88]

My poor child, thanks for giving your life to bring down more than one infector.

Which sounds a lot like "I'm going to dream Brinn next; I haven't dreamed of Kath, don't assume I have just because I've said she looks okay."~Lottie

I might have botched my plot, but glad some good came out of it for coming out when I did.

[Eönwë]

Looks like we managed to buy ourselves another Day!

I also think I'm going to have to go back and re-evaluate my opinions on everyone, since clearly I have no idea what's going on.

[Eönwë]

First though, an updated full vote count:

Bold is evil, italics is good.

Day 1
Lhuna -> Lhuna
Rikae -> Brinniel
G55 -> Rikae
Boro -> Pitchwife
Urwen -> G55
Pitchwife -> Brinniel (2)
Kath -> G55 (2)
Shasta -> Pitchwife (2)
Kitanna -> Pitchwife (3)
Inzil -> G55 (3)
Lottie -> G55 (4)
Greenie -> Macalaure
THE Ka -> Brinniel (3)
Eönwë -> Urwen
Rune -> Brinniel (4)
Lommy -> G55 (5)
Huines -> G55 (6)
Legate -> Brinn (5)
Macalaure -> Brinn (6)
Brinniel -> G55 (7)
---G55 Fake Ranger Reveal---
Sally -> Brinn (7)

Reminder: while G55 is evil, because she's the Cobbler she and the Infectors didn't know who each other were at this point.



Day 2
Lommy -> Macalaure
Kath -> Inzil
Lhuna -> Lommy
Macalaure -> Lommy 2
QT -> Brinniel
Greenie -> Macalaure 2
Legate -> Huinesoron
Huinesoron -> Macalaure 3
Rune -> Loslote
Kitanna -> Huinesoron 2
THE Ka -> Loslote 2
Pitchwife -> Huinesoron 3
Loslote -> Huinesoron 4
Sally -> Macalaure 4
Inzil -> Macalaure 5
Lalaith -> Huinesoron 5
Brinn -> Huinesoron 6
Boro -> Mac 6
Eönwë -> Huinesoron 7
Shasta -> Mac


Day 3
THE Ka -> Sally
QT -> Brinn
Eönwë -> Sally 2
Kath -> Inzil
Greenie -> Sally 3
Lommy -> Sally 4
--- Sally Hunter reveal---
Inzil -> Brinn 2
Lottie -> Sally 5
Lalaith -> Sally 6
Legate -> Sally 7
Shasta -> Sally 8
Brinn -> Sally 9
Rune -> Inzil 2
Boro -> Sally 10
Pitch -> Eonwe



Day 4
Lhuna -> Eönwë
Eönwë -> Boro
QT -> Lhuna
Inzil -> Lommy
Lottie -> Boro 2
Greenie -> Zil
The Ka -> Lhuna 2
Pitchwife -> Eönwë 2
Lalaith -> Lhuna 3
Lommy -> Lhuna 4
Rune -> Eönwë 3
Kath -> Lhuna 5
Shasta -> Lhuna 6
Boro -> Eönwë 4
Brinn -> Lhuna 7



Day 5
QT -> Rune
Kath -> Inzil
Greenie -> Inzil 2
Shasta -> THE Ka
Eönwë -> Rune 2
Boro -> Eönwë
Inzil -> Rune 3
Lommy -> Inzil 3
Lottie -> Rune 4
Brinn -> Inzil 4
Rune -> Inzil 5
Pitch -> Inzil 6
THE Ka -> Shasta



Day 6
Shasta -> THE Ka
Rune -> Eönwë
Greenie -> THE Ka 2
QT -> Brinn
THE Ka -> Brinn 2
Brinn -> THE Ka 3
Lottie -> THE Ka 4
Boro -> THE Ka 5
Lommy -> THE Ka 6
Kath -> THE Ka
Eonwe -> THE Ka

[Eönwë]

So what, do we learn from the votes? Commenting as I look through.


Day 1
It looks like there were good and bad voters among the Brinn voters, so it's not clear whether we learn much here.

If Brinn is evil, it is unlikely that Rune is.
If Brinn is evil, Kath, Lottie and Lommy all voted to save her, so they could be evil.



Day 2
Plenty of good-aligned people voted for Mac, so a Mac-vote doesn't necessarily make you evil.

Rune and THE Ka voted for Lottie, which makes both Lottie look better - it's unlikely that THE Ka would make a packmate into a viable quarantine candidate. It also makes Rune look better - it's unlikely that wolves would vote for the same person immediately after one another.



Day 3
Both good and bad people voted for Sally, so we can't tell much from that. Theoretically, wolves might want to not vote Sally as a way of looking better later, but again, innocents voted for non-Sally candidates so we can't tell that much.



Day 4
I haven't gone back to look at the times, but Rune's vote definitely was to quarantine me and save Lhuna. Boro's may have also been, but it was a bit late.

It turns out THE Ka is capable of turning a packmate into a viable quarantine-candidate. Maybe Day 2 doesn't make Lottie look as good by association after all.



Day 5
We have one confirmed innocent voting for Inzil, and one confirmed innocent voting for Rune, so nothing obvious there.

If Rune is evil, Lottie seems likely to be innocent, since she brought him pretty close to being quarantined.



Day 6
Only Rune and THE Ka herself didn't vote for THE Ka. I see three options here. If Rune is evil, he tried to save a packmate, and the third packmate realised they had to go with the flow or get discovered, the wolves saw the current and decided to go with the flow, or, based on THE Ka's last posts about RL and time, she agreed to be sacrificed for the good of the wolfpack, which means that the earlier voters could also be wolves. Hard to tell

[Eönwë]

Looking at people's votes over all Days:

Lommy - Voted for Lhuna before it was a given that she was going to be quarantined, and THE Ka when it was. Voted to save Brinn on Day 1 and Rune on Day 5. Verdict: mostly good based on votes; less good if Brinn or Rune is evil.

Loslote - Voted Hui at a time when it could've gone in either direction, voted Boro before the village had made Lhuna a viable candidate, made THE Ka a clear frontrunner. Voted to save Brinn on Day 1 Verdict: mostly good based on votes; less good if Brinn is evil.

Kath - Has voted Zil (a known innocent) 3/6 Days, and voted THE Ka after her quarantining was inevitable. In her favour, she strengthened Lhuna's lead at an important time. Verdict: mostly good based on votes.

A Little Green - Until THE Ka yesterDay, only voted people who we know were innocent - Mac and then Zil. She did turn THE Ka into a viable candidate, but if THE Ka did offer herself up to be sacrificed, then this would fit into that account. Additionally, a second vote does not necessarily make a viable candidate. Verdict: mixed.

Boromir88 - Until yesterDay, when THE Ka's fate was mostly sealed, has only voted for innocents - Pitch, Mac, Sally, who are known innocents, and me for 2 Days. Verdict: bad.

Brinniel - Voted for Hui when it mattered, voted for Lhuna after it didn't, voted against Rune when it did. Made THE Ka votes a full-blown bandwaggon. Verdict: mostly good, but if Rune is evil, mixed; if Greenie is evil, less good (since that suggests that there was a plan on sacrificing THE Ka).

Rune Son of Bjarne - The only times his votes have had an impact is to save Lhuna on Day 4, and himself on Day 5. Voted for Brinn on Day 1. Verdict: bad; mixed if Brinn is evil.


So ignoring the conditionals, that leaves:

Mostly good: Lottie, Lommy, Kath, Brinn
Mixed: Greenie
Bad: Boro, Rune

Boro and Rune I already suspect, but I think moving forward it would be worth looking at Greenie more closely.

[Thinlómien]

Very quiet here - and I'm not surprised. I spent last night playing computer games instead of ww because I was like "eh nothing big happening in there toDay, Shasta the seer is dead and we're gonna lynch Eönwe and nobody can be probably motivated to do much analysis about anything".

WELL

Excellent job, Shasta, I now forgive you for your previous lack of psychic brilliance in this game

Because let's not pretend (I mean I understand why Eönwë is pretending but the rest of us shouldn't) this was about anything else than Shasta's all-but-seer-reveal yesterDay:

Originally Posted by Shasta

++Ka

It's fine to go for Eonwe here too. Don't vote Lottie or Greenie.

Why would the wolves have gone for him if he wasn't right?

I don't see a single reason.

They must be frantic that the seer is alive and could condemn them all. They can't afford to start framing people.

Ergo, I'm 99.9% sure Eönwë is a wolf and Lottie and Greenie are innocent. I was pretty certain of that yesterDay anyway, but I would very much like to thank Shasta for confirming it for us.

The question remains, who is the last wolf? I'm afraid I can't bring myself to dig too deep into the question right now because it's a pressing question only toMorrow AND my work might be wasted by a seer reveal anyhow, but if I had to hazard a guess, I'm still thinking Brinn, it makes the most sense. But I guess Kath and Boro are still theoretically on the table too.

I am going to vote Eönwë probably no matter what (sorry Eönwë if you feel obloged to respond to this, I meant what I said yesterDay that it would have been perhaps nicer to lynch you yesterDay because Ka might have been chill enough to give up toDay while you obviously aren't *pats wolvish head*) but it feels a little wrong to do it this early. I'll be back but yeah, like I said, probably won't post that much toDay because Shasta did all the work for us... (And given how long this game is, maybe it's nice to have on chill Day in the middle, in case hunting the last wolf will still become a big drama.)

[A Little Green]

Colour-coded spreadsheet of doom is back! I added everyone’s interactions with THE Ka, and based on what this gives me, my best guess would be that our remaining wolves are among Kath, Brinn, and Eonwe. Rune and Boro are also very much possible. Lommy and Lottie would be unlikely. Overall, I'm a bit unnerved by the fact that a majority of our remaining villagers still look compatible as fellows to our dead wolves. I shortened the bits about previous wolves for convenience, but didn’t leave them out altogether since they’re still relevant. Again, here’s the whole thing –


Lommy
Possible match with Huin, unlikely with Lhuna, fairly unlikely with Ka.

Huin and Lommy – Mutual suspicion without votes, could be wolf-on-wolf.

Lhuna and Lommy – Mutual suspicion with votes. Lhuna votes for Lommy with barely a reason on D2, Lommy freaks out about Lhuna’s bandwagon comment in the same post. On D3 Lommy points out Lhuna noticing Huin’s slip as possibly wolfish, which would be pretty brutal if they were fellows. Then on D4 Lommy casts a fairly crucial vote for Lhuna. None of this looks wolf-on-wolfy to me.

THE Ka and Lommy – Ka barely mentions Lommy. As for Lommy, on D1 and D2 she lumps Ka together with Kath under reasonable and innocentish. On D3 she says Ka's D2 vote looks bad in light of Huin's role, lists her as slightly suspicious and says used to consider her innocent on very little evidence. Then on D4 she says "THE Ka - still very much in her own bubble, which freaks me out a little. But is that enough reason to considering voting her? Ehhhh...". On D5 she says she’s been saying for Days how Ka seems harmless by playing in her own bubble and avoiding controversy and this is alarming as it reminds her of past Ka-wolves; considers voting her but prefers Eonwe. Then on D6 says Ka is a very likely wolf and votes her. This could go either way, but overall seems like a fairly natural thought process to me. I know I always say consistent doesn’t equal innocent, but this kind of consistency – starting from one opinion, slowly beginning to doubt it, then consolidating a different opinion and following through with a vote - doesn’t ring alarm bells.

Other observations: I still think her reaction to Boro’s non-reveal looks very genuine and makes me feel better about her.


Lottie
Unlikely match with Huin and THE Ka, fairly unlikely with Lhuna.

Huin and Lottie – On D1 Lottie agrees very vocally with Huin several times and even points this out herself; on D2 casts a fairly crucial vote on Huin.

Lhuna and Lottie – Mostly either consider each other innocent or have low-key, could-go-either-way interactions. On D2 Lottie suspects Lhuna for discussing Kitanna but later forgets to suspect her for it. When called out by Pitch, Lottie is open about how she probably has a biased frame of mind since she didn’t suspect Lhuna previously; I’m not sure a Lottiewolf would say she literally had a biased frame of mind where a fellow is concerned.

THE Ka and Lottie – Mutual suspicion with votes. On D1 Ka points out Lottie's repeated complimenting of Huin which would be pretty brutal from a fellow wolf on D1, later lumps her with Brinn as suspicious but suspects Brinn over Lottie. On D2 Lottie says Ka is helpful but under the radar, Ka suspects Lottie for playing safe and polished and is second to vote for her. Then on D3 Lottie finds Ka and Rune's votes for herself suspicious and lists both under "dubious". On D4 Lottie says she doesn’t trust Ka but doesn’t have solid reasons to suspect her, either. On D5 Lottie points out Ka's Lhuna vote could be wolf-on-wolf (again somewhat brutal if they were fellows), pre-votes Inzil or Ka, says she is beginning to suspect Eonwe but would prefer to lynch Ka, and says Ka's case against Shasta could indicate Ka and Eonwe being packmates. Later Lottie says she doesn't want to lynch Inzil after all but go for Rune, Ka or Eonwe; votes Rune over Ka due to better likelihood of a Rune lynch. On D6 Lottie still suspects Ka and votes for her.

Other observations: The Shasta kill makes Lottie look good, as Shasta was Seer hinting pretty heavily about having dreamed myself and Lottie as innocent, and the wolves obviously bit.


Boro
Somewhat possible match with all three.

Huin and Boro – Huin light-suspects Boro; on D2 Boro doesn't want to vote for Huin and votes for Mac at a crucial moment.

Lhuna and Boro – A lot going on. On D2 Boro defends Lommy against Lhuna and flip-flops on whether he finds Lhuna suspicious or not; on D3 still not comfortable with the Lommy vote and says he'll vote for Inzil or Lhuna; on D4 speculates on Lhuna-Lottie-Inzil pack, is first to pre-vote Lhuna but then ends up voting for Eonwe after it no longer matters given Lhuna's lead (presumably to flush out potential packmates? This makes him look slightly better). Lhuna, meanwhile, suspects Boro from D2 onwards but doesn't act on it.

THE Ka and Boro – On D2 Boro analyses the G55- and Brinn-wagons for potential suspicious votes, doesn't mention Ka or several other Brinn voters (Mac, Legate, Sally) at all; later, after this has been brought up by others, says Ka's vote placement was suspicious and wants to look closer at her. On D5 Boro agrees with Lottie's "wolf-on-wolf" take on Ka's Lhuna vote, and says Ka's case against Shasta looks opportunistic. On D6 he finds Ka the most suspicious and votes for her. Boro doesn’t really take the lead in suspecting or voting for THE Ka, but that doesn't necessarily say anything about his role.

Other observations: This was really interesting, actually. The non-reveal brouhaha yesterDay initially made me feel better about Boro, but looking at his interactions with our known wolves does make me reconsider somewhat.


Rune
Somewhat possible match with all three.

Huin and Rune – Barely interact with each other.

Lhuna and Rune – On D1 Rune says he always believes the best of Lhuna; as discussed before, this could be Runewolf hiding behind what he always does (in the same post he also said he always suspects Eonwe, and has consistently suspected Eonwe for most of the game). On D4 Rune says he would like to have a better look before voting Lhuna and won't just follow QT, which tallies with his previous independent voting and doesn’t tell much either way. Meanwhile, Lhuna barely mentions Rune aside from mentioning on D4 that he could be a submarine wolf; on the same Day Lhuna also casts doubt on Lommy's conclusion that the Legate kill makes Rune look good. Again as discussed, this doesn’t necessarily make them less likely fellows after all; as Lommy pointed out, this could as well be Lhuna pointing out a flaw in a theory that she only spotted because she knew that the premise (Rune is innocent) was faulty.

THE Ka and Rune - On D1 Ka lumps Rune together with Lhuna in her long-ish discussion of their time constraints; I know I said this made me think Ka and Lhuna were fellows, but I’m not sure whether she would single out two fellow wolves this way. On D2 Rune says Ka is leaning good, insightful and helpful, but nothing concrete. On D4 Ka subtly questions Lhuna's criticism of Lommy's theory re:Legate that would point to innocent Rune; this would make sense with Ka being a fellow of both Rune and Lhuna. On D5 Ka downplays the QT vote for Rune. Then on D6 Rune says Ka seems more innocent than not, probably the last person aside from Eonwe to think so.

Other observations: This would be a lot easier if we actually knew why the wolves killed Legate. Because I agree with Lommy, if they were looking for possible Seers it’s fairly unlikely that Rune is a wolf.


Brinn
Somewhat possible match with all three.

Huin and Brinn – Huin vocally defends Brinn, Brinn votes for Huin. As mentioned before, the latter could be Brinn trying to distance herself from a fellow wolf who had attached himself a little too closely to her.

Lhuna and Brinn - Mutual suspicion since D2. On D2 Lhuna speculates about Brinn-Huin wolf pair, though only after it had already been brought up by others. On D3 Brinn feels worse about Lhuna, does an analysis and finds her suspicious but doesn't consider voting her as she hasn't been around; on D4 Brinn is seventh to vote for Lhuna. Could pass for wolf-on-wolf.

THE Ka and Brinn – Mutual suspicion here too. On D1 Brinn says THE Ka seems level-headed and leaning innocentish, while Ka suspects Brinn for playing safe and votes for her (3., with G55 4 and Pitch 3). This would be risky but not unthinkably so for D1 wolf-on-wolf as both G55 and Pitch were ahead of Brinn. On D2 Ka continues to suspect Brinn but votes for Lottie (both had 1 vote at the time). On D3 Brinn forgets Ka from her list of non-Mac/Huin voters and then says she needs to keep a better eye on her, later analyses her but doesn't come to a conclusion. On D4 Brinn still hasn’t come to a conclusion about Ka but says Ka's vote for Lhuna could be wolf-on-wolf. On D5 Brinn pre-votes Inzil and "to a lesser extent" Ka; then on D6 follows Boro on suspecting Ka and votes for her. Ka votes for Brinn, though she was so universally suspected by this stage that I don’t think we can give much weight to her vote either way.

Other observations: I still don’t know what to make of the Cutie votes for her – or more specifically, of the Cuties voting for her again with an innocent majority. Brinn being a wolf would also explain why the wolves didn’t believe Boro’s fake Seer hints.


Eonwe
Somewhat possible match with all three.

Huin and Eonwe – Eonwe casts deciding vote on Huin, though as discussed he will probably have been aware of this at the time so this doesn’t necessarily clear him.

Lhuna and Eonwe – Eonwe doesn’t suspect Lhuna; Lhuna supects Eonwe on D2 but in the same post says she considers voting Lommy, Brinn or Boro, then on D4 Lhuna elaborates on her Eonwe suspicions and votes for him.

THE Ka and Eonwe – This gave me a headache. On D1 Eonwe says he likes Lommy and Ka so far, and is wary about Brinn agreeing with him on this. On D2 Eonwe points out Ka and Brinn as possible fellows, but also says she still seems good. On D3 he lists Ka under "concerned about" based on her Lottie vote and says he "could vote" her or Rune. Then on D4 he "feels better about Ka" due to Mac turning out innocent and lists her under "unsure, leaning good", but later the same Day he is wary of Lommy, THE Ka, and Brinn due to discussion over Legate. On D5 Ka suspects Shasta because he is defensive of Eonwe, Eonwe thinks this could implicate Ka and Shasta as fellows. Finally on D6 Eonwe lists Ka with two TBDs and one "bad" over lumping him and Shasta together, also calls her D2 vote "kind of bad". Later he starts suspecting Boro/Lottie/Shasta for framing him and Ka, then backtracks saying that if Ka is a wolf he needs to look elsewhere; votes Ka after she is already a goner. This is so messy that I don’t know what to think. Ka’s suspicion of Shasta based on him being defensive of Eonwe – while saying remarkably little about Eonwe himself – is very interesting. At the same time, I’m not sure an Eonwolf would really say he and Ka are innocents being framed by wolves in a situation where Ka looked like a very likely lynch. Also just in general, Eonwe's opinion on Ka flips and flops almost too much for them to be fellows; a careful Eonwolf would possibly try to decide whether to wolf-on-wolf and then stick with it rather than waver this much.

Other observations: The Shasta kill looks really bad on Eonwe, as it looked like Shasta was a wolf who had dreamed myself and Lottie as innocents, Ka as a wolf, and Eonwe as either another dreamed wolf or at the very least a likely next dream.


Kath
Possible match with all three.

Huin and Kath – Barely interact with each other.

Lhuna and Kath – Lhuna barely mentions Kath. On D1 Kath berates Lhuna for Nilping; on D3 says Lhuna would've been her second choice for lynchee due to her role in discussing Kit (voted Inzil); on D4 pre-votes Inzil or Lhuna, fifth to vote for Lhuna. I disagree with Eonwe’s conclusion that this vote is unlikely to be wolf-on-wolf. Kath had said for two Days that her top suspects were Inzil and Lhuna, so voting for anyone outside of those two would have raised eyebrows. By the time she voted, Inzil had one vote and Lhuna was in the lead with 4 votes to Eonwe’s 3. Voting for Inzil instead of Lhuna would have looked really fishy for her the next Day if Lhunawolf did end up lynched, which was beginning to look likely at that point. So fellows or no, I don’t think Kath had a choice but to follow up on her suspicion of Lhuna and vote for her.

THE Ka and Kath – barely interact with each other; on D2 Kath questions Ka on whether she actually suspects Lottie or not, then on D6 Kath votes for Ka after she is already a goner.

Other observations: Kath is doing a good job of contributing actively while keeping out of the spotlight. She does this regardless of role, but her lack of interaction with both Huin and THE Ka makes me pretty uneasy. The suspicion of Lhuna, while a lot more substantial, isn’t incompatible with being wolf-on-wolf, either – especially coupled with the fact that she kept Lhuna as a second choice behind Inzil, and that Lhuna doesn’t really mention Kath.

[Boromir88]

Originally Posted by Eönwë

Mostly good: Lottie, Lommy, Kath, Brinn
Mixed: Greenie
Bad: Boro, Rune

Boro and Rune I already suspect, but I think moving forward it would be worth looking at Greenie more closely.

Interesting...well looking at your votes:

Day 1: Urwen
Day 2: Huey
Day 3: sally
Day 4: Boro
Day 5: Rune
Day 6: Ka

2 confirmed wolves, 2 confirmed innocents, 2 unknowns.

I don't give you credit for The Ka. That was an even more straight forward, organized lynch than Lhuna's. It's more possible wolf-on-wolf voting than anything else we've seen.

With that, I don't give you blame for sally, as everyone assumed wrong when she revealed.

You spent a lot of time yesterday assuming my guilt (after chastising me for doing the same thing earlier) and trying to steer us away from lynching a confirmed wolf, when in the end you voted for Ka, but at a time when it didn't matter

Aside from Huey, your voting is highly suspicious.

Two more wolves. It's gotta be Eonwe, and I'm almost positive the other one is Brinn. I don't want to go around counting any chickens, but I think we're in a good position here.~Lottie

I have a bit of pause here...The Ka's lynch was even more orderly than Lhuna's. The QT gave us Brinn, and we stuck with Shasta's suspicions. I don't think the 2 wolves would be giving up that easily if it was this simple. I think the clear choice of 1 wolf is Eonwe at the moment, but not entirely convinced Brinn is the last.

It could be Rune who has also been sending out seer clues for a few days and perhaps it's an Eonwe/Rune as the last 2. Rune going against Eonwe, and vice versa is their tactic to distance themselves and look favorably to us. I believe, 2 innocents lynched and that's all the wolves need. I pause with assuming Eonwe/Brinn, because yesterday's lynch of Ka looked too simple.

I don't even know if it matters, since the QT appears to like to toy with our votes more than the infectors...but for posterity.

+-Eonwe