Tol-in-Gaurhoth CXIV – The Evil Breath of Morgoth in Dor-lómin, game thread

[Boromir88]

Originally Posted by Thinlómien

DID EÖNWË AGAIN SLIP HE KNOWS BRINN IS INNOCENT?

(or has he given up and is fabricating wolf slips to make packmate Brinn look good at this point??)


edit: xed, okay I see not. Yeah I need to sleep.

Maybe we're all a little bit rusty. It's at least provided The Nogmod with an epic game...as we all continue tearing our hair out.

I will say the stand out day was really Day 4 with Lhuna's lynched.

Day 1 Chaos DL, cobbler lynched

Day 2 chaos DL, wolf lynched

Day 3, chaos hunter, sally lynched

Day 4 was the stand out...it was our most orderly and organized lynch. That was also the first day the QT was in control of the innocents. It suggests, that perhaps the wolves did decide to bus Lhuna, because it had such a completely different feel than Huey's lynch.

[Boromir88]

Oh and I must be away for several hours...slowly reopening is killing my mood of staying home for the last 2 months.

+-THE Ka

I'm torn with Eonwe's blood thirst in this game. It seems like he can be convinced to lynch half the village. At the same time he was the one I was really sending "dreamed wolf" of clues on and if he was I would have expected my plan to work.

So, I'll go with other option today, because of how orderly Lhuna's lynch was and when I read Ka's reasons for voting Lhuna it boiled down to "because the QT said so" but she didn't add any further suspicions to Lhuna.

[Thinlómien]

I gotta admit Boro's non-reveal sort of triggered a werewolf fatigue in me, I hate to be back to square one again. But I will try. ToDay and toMorrow are crucial Days, and I hope our brave seer is dabbling in maths as well as clairvoyance. But as long as they are in hiding, we have to use our little gray cells.

I am a bit reluctant to start untangling the whole Boro-Eönwë-Brinn mess, because frankly it makes me a little uncomfortable. I am really tempted to ignore deeper implications of recent events and go with my general feeling of Boro and Brinn being innocent and Eönwë being guilty, but I'm not sure this is a wise course of action.

The rest of the village? I still think Lottie is innocent, Greenie seems pretty good to me too, and I am a bit hesitant to jump on the Rune suspicion because I don't have much good reasons to suspect him and it sort of looks too easy? Meaning, (if Boro is right which it looks like he is), the whole Rune suspicion arose because he signaled the QT about him and they responded because they trusted him, not because they distrusted Rune. Granted, we have maybe collectively been giving Rune too much of a pass, but the new wave of suspicion is on really flimsy grounds. Lots of room for brain farts here.

Kath and Shasta? Neither of them looks super guilty to me, but neither do they look super innocent. I guess that if my innocent list in the above paragraph is correct, then it's very likely one of them is a wolf. Which one? Who knows.

THE Ka I think a very likely wolf because like I keep saying, her "disconnected" playing style strikes me as fishy, and so are her connections to the dead wolves. Like there is nothing glaringly obvious all in all, but it's more like a process of elimination. We still have three wolves left and I have hard time imagining a scenario where Ka is NOT one of them.

Therefore as it stands I would vote +-THE Ka

Also my suggestion for the QTs for toDay: ignore Boro and just vote whoever you think is suspicious. I think we need a little help here.


PS. I have skimmed through/ quickly read the discussion that happened while I was gone. I will likely get back to it at some point toDay but now it's a whole lot of EURGH I CAN'T DEAL WITH THIS for me. (Yes I still want to smack Boro a little, but I guess I will forgive him if he's innocent. If he's not then )

[A Little Green]

Trying to unpick Boro.

So first off – I only made one note yesterDay while reading the thread. This is what it says:

Boro Seer-hinting/slipping (note to self: if Boro still alive but not revealing toMorrow, have a closer look)



My immediate reaction to his non-reveal (I love that word btw) was that he’s innocent. I still think that’s the more likely scenario, but I also don’t think I can afford to trust anyone, especially someone like Boro who could totally pull a stunt like this whatever his role, and especially given my impressive track record of being wrong in this game so far. So. Starting point: I think whatever his role, Boro is probably telling the truth about pretending to be the Seer, doing some testing and realising the QT think so too. But beyond this –

Scenario 1 – Boro is innocent.

This does look exactly like something a Borordo would do. But as noted above, it’s pretty curious that he’s still alive. We’re getting to a point where the wolves really, really have no option but the gun for the Seer, so even if the wolves were inclined to think he was bluffing, it would be really bold of them not to eliminate him just to be safe. So if he isn’t a wolf himself, the only other feasible explanation (in my head at least) is that he was so blatantly wrong in his hints about someone that the wolves knew he wasn’t the Seer. So for example if Lommy is a wolf, they would know Boro wasn’t the real Seer. Likewise if Eonwe is innocent.

Scenario 2 – Boro is a wolf.

Possible, if with some reservations. The starting point – pretending to be the Seer, gaining the trust of the QT, and rolling with it – would definitely be a possibility even if Boro is a wolf. Lommy mentioned phantom-esque double bluff ploys, and I actually don’t have a problem imagining Boro pulling off something like that. That said, there are a few issues with this theory.

Most obviously, why would he come out now instead of pressing his advantage and continuing to manipulate the QT? My immediate thought would be that a Borolf would keep going with the charade as long as we let him, then come out with an actual reveal if he started being suspected and try to draw the real Seer out in the process.

Possibly he thought he’d come under fire about not being Night-killed, and wanted to avoid it getting that far – especially if this implicated a fellow. Coming out like this does make him look pretty innocent, and as long as we don’t lynch him, we won’t get anything definite about the fellow he was trying to protect, either. Additionally, following up on Lottie’s point about how Eonwe challenging Boro toDay looks like an attempt to distract from himself – if they are fellows, this would be a masterstroke. All we’re doing is talking about Boro, and most people seem inclined to believe him – and his innocence would also make Eonwe appear innocent. Meanwhile, they are sufficiently suspicious of each other so this doesn’t look too buddy-buddy.

--

I still think scenario 1 is more likely, but I managed to make scenario 2 sound like such an awesome stroke of evil genius that I’ll be almost disappointed if it’s not true Regardless, I’d be tempted to draw a simplistic conclusion that Boro and Eonwe are on the same side. That is, either they’re both innocent or both guilty. I’m leaning towards both innocent at the moment, but reserve the right to change my mind.

[Thinlómien]

It is true that it's hard to see why Borowolf wouldn't follow through and reveal as the seer.

Think about it.

He has laid the perfect grounds for it for Days, he has plenty of material to point to in order to back up his claim. He has been making loud enough seer hints that he could hope a few innocents would be partial to his reveal on the spot.

Especially if he revealed before the actual seer came forth? I think he might be initially believed far more than the real seer.

Wait I'm thinking and maybe I'll do a legate180 --

What if Borowolf was setting himself up for a fake seer reveal the whole time?? And then toDay, he chickened out for some reason, and decided to claim he's an ordo trying to fake to be the seer?

Maybe because if he made his seer claim toDay and there was a counter claim from the real seer, even if we believed him and lynched the real seer, we could bag a wolf toMorrow by lynching him.

While maybe he figured that he can't wait until toMorrow to make the claim after his parting post yesterDay which was going to look fishy otherwise.

I mean, it is important for the wolves that we lynch an innocent both toDay and toMorrow. Then they win. If we lynch a wolf on one of those Days, the game continues still. A fake seer reveal might start looking like a worse choice than just crossing their fingers that the actual seer hasn't dreamt of any wolves?

[Thinlómien]

Hmm. On the other hand, if Boro and Eönwë were both wolves, don't you think Boro would be pressing the "my not-death proves I was wrong about Eönwë" angle a little harder toDay?

Also if "suspecting Eönwë" is the question on which Boro's lack of getting Night killed supposedly hinges on, then why is the one who actually died Pitchwife who *dramatic drumroll* suspected Eönwë??

And why is virtually nobody talking about the fact that Boro "not getting killed" could be just as well about being wrong about his supposed "known innocents" ie me and Brinn? Why is Boro not second guessing his trust in us if he's innocent?

I think the only thing I'm certain of is that there is no way in hell that all of Boro, Eönwë and Brinn are innocent. But that's not very much to go on.

[A Little Green]

Originally Posted by Lommy

And why is virtually nobody talking about the fact that Boro "not getting killed" could be just as well about being wrong about his supposed "known innocents" ie me and Brinn? Why is Boro not second guessing his trust in us if he's innocent?

Why is my own sister calling me "virtually nobody"? Rude.

[Kath]

What is with this village and Gifted's? Fake reveals, real reveals, reveals of fake-ness. I'm not sure I understand even half of what Boro is claiming to have been doing with his Seer act. You suggested Rune because you didn't think he was suspicious and just wanted to see whether the QT would follow your lead? And then the wolves would think you were the Seer because if Rune was a wolf, they'd think you'd spotted him, and if Rune wasn't a wolf ... what, you'd just not dreamed of him then? But the wolves didn't go after you, so Pitch must have looked more Seer-ish. That said, I've read through Lommy's Pitch-alysis and I have to largely agree. There didn't seem to be much there that would indicate him being a Gifted and seemingly being vital for them to kill.

And now Rune is in the midst of all this. I want to see if Boro is actually right that no one else really put him up as a candidate prior to the QT vote yesterDay, and therefore the QT must have been following his ideas. I feel like the last time I really saw Rune properly discussed before all this was in the context of Legate possibly having been killed for Seer-ish vibes, but I'd ended up feeling quite good about him as a result of that, so I need to go back and look at it.

Also, I don't understand this:

Originally Posted by Shasta

Regardless of whether Boro is telling the truth or not, I think it's likely the QT'ed innocents believed him to be the Seer. We could test that theory with having them follow Boro's vote again today, if we thought it mattered.

I thought that the QT could read the game thread. So wouldn't they now know that Boro is saying he isn't the Seer and so wouldn't follow his vote?