Tol-in-Gaurhoth CXIV – The Evil Breath of Morgoth in Dor-lómin, Quarantine Thread

[Lhunardawen]

++Brinniel is still an option. It always has been.

[Lalaith]

So many of the Lost Play players are here - it feels like we've put the band back together again!
I went back and skim-read the game - I'd forgotten about that hideous last day with the coin toss - Rikae, Nogs and me...

Anyway, Zil, have you seen Lommy's analysis of you? Do you think it's a fair appraisal and that it is highlighting everything that's relevant? I ask because I went over mine wondering if she was skimming over/omitting anything interesting and I couldn't find much, which to me kind of points to her innocence.
Wolves usually miss stuff out, particularly when the person being analysed isn't around to point out errors/omissions. (She did mess up her appraisal of me when I was still around and I jumped on it)

[Lalaith]

As I might have mentioned yesterday, I don’t think I am capable of imagining a scenario where Eönwë isn’t a wolf.

Rune is my brother from another mother.

[Lhunardawen]

Did Greenie just say she's on sick leave?

Get her!!!

[Legate of Amon Lanc]

Originally Posted by A Little Green

I've finally caught up on everything that happened yesterDay and toDay! From now on, if I say someone looks blatantly wolfish, please lay off them as they’re probably innocent.

Horrible excuses. Horrible excuses again throughout the whole post. This brings back my suspicion of Greenie. "Oh XY is so-and-so I don't know..." I think she may be the worst submarine of all submarine Wolves, and perhaps I should really have voted for her and went after her more while I was still alive.

Originally Posted by Boromir88

Day 4 was the stand out...it was our most orderly and organized lynch. That was also the first day the QT was in control of the innocents. It suggests, that perhaps the wolves did decide to bus Lhuna, because it had such a completely different feel than Huey's lynch.

Anything to say about it, Lhuna? Did they bus you?

Also thinking - if the WWs thought Boro a Seer already then (but then, why not kill him there and then?), they could have bussed Lhuna for that reason. But... nah. Doesn't sound likely. But they might have had a different reason.

[Lhunardawen]

Originally Posted by Legate of Amon Lanc

Anything to say about it, Lhuna? Did they bus you?

Come on Leggie, you'll have to be a lot more subtle than that.

[Lhunardawen]

Anyway, does anyone have any suggestions about how I should vote toDay?

[Lhunardawen]

Originally Posted by Legate of Amon Lanc

Anything to say about it, Lhuna? Did they bus you?

But you know what, why not? Wait, let me try to put something together.

[Lhunardawen]

Let me shamelessly steal Eönwë’s list, for reference. I assume this is accurate.

Lhuna -> Eönwë
Eönwë -> Boro
QT -> Lhuna
Inzil -> Lommy
Lottie -> Boro 2
Greenie -> Zil
The Ka -> Lhuna 2
Pitchwife -> Eönwë 2
Lalaith -> Lhuna 3
Lommy -> Lhuna 4
Rune -> Eönwë 3
Kath -> Lhuna 5
Shasta -> Lhuna 6
Boro -> Eönwë 4
Brinn -> Lhuna 7


Scenario 1: Lhuna was bussed.

Scenario 1.1: Lhuna was bussed by all of her packmates

Infectors: Ka, Lommy, Kath, Shasta, Brinn

Scenario 1.2: Lhuna was bussed by some, but not all, of her packmates.

Infectors: Eonwe, Lottie, Greenie, Ka, Lommy, Rune, Kath, Shasta, Boro, Brinn

Scenario 2: Lhuna was not bussed.

Scenario 2.1: The villagers brilliantly executed her while her packmates stood aghast, unable to do anything.

Infectors: Eonwe, Lottie, Greenie, Rune, Boro

Scenario 2.2: The villagers brilliantly executed her and her packmates decided to come along for the ride.

Infectors: Eonwe, Lottie, Greenie, Ka, Lommy, Rune, Kath, Shasta, Boro, Brinn

Scenario 3: Lhuna sacrificed herself for the greater good.

Scenario 3.1: Her packmates wholeheartedly supported her sacrifice.

Infectors: Ka, Lommy, Kath, Shasta, Brinn

Scenario 3.2: Her packmates were divided about her willingness to sacrifice herself.

Infectors: Eonwe, Lottie, Greenie, Ka, Lommy, Rune, Kath, Shasta, Boro, Brinn

Did I miss anything?

[satansaloser2005]

I want to know how on earth Lottie is still alive. I think she's guilty just based on her continued existence.

[Macalaure]

All the different possible scenarios are making my head hurt.

If Boro is a wolf, there are a million possible plans and possible options and I don't even want to start thinking about them.

If Boro is an ordo, as he claims, how did he get the wolves to not kill him with his hints.

If Boro is double-bluffing and he is actually the real seer - then how did he get the wolves not kill him?

Those last two we can examine, though, and if we can deduce that there was no way, then he must be a wolf in turn.

The day he got Lhuna lynched, he surprisingly switched his vote to Eonwe. If Eonwe is a wolf, too, this would've rung every last alarm bell for the pack. Eonwe is either innocent, or the wolves' evidence for Boro not being the seer must've been extremely convincing (or he's one of them). Even if he listed a wolf as a known innocent, as a wolf, I would get pretty doubtful at that point. If we spare Boro, we should spare Eonwe as well.

The only possibility I see for non-wolf-Boro to survive is that he put an innocent as a prime suspect or a wolf as a known-to-him innocent. Considering that a seer still has to suspect people even if they're out of dreamt-of wolves, the former is not 100% safe and the wolves may second-guess it. Listing a wolf as a known innocent though, that might make the wolves go har har, he's bluffing.

This keeps bringing me back to Lommy and Brinn. (What do you think, baddies - want to vote for Brinniel again toDay? Oh, you know you want to )

Whether Boro is the real seer or an ordo, this reasoning goes the same way, except as the real seer he knew what he was doing whereas as an ordo he'd have to do it with a good amount of risky guesswork.

Here's one thing: in a regular game, the seer can't list a wolf as a known innocent. If the seer dies at night without being able to reverse that statement, he leaves the village with a wolf as a quasi-known innocent, which is a very, very terrible idea. In this game, a dead seer can feed the village their dreams via the QT vote, so it's actually doable.

[Rikae]

Originally Posted by Macalaure

The day he got Lhuna lynched, he surprisingly switched his vote to Eonwe. If Eonwe is a wolf, too, this would've rung every last alarm bell for the pack. Eonwe is either innocent, or the wolves' evidence for Boro not being the seer must've been extremely convincing (or he's one of them). Even if he listed a wolf as a known innocent, as a wolf, I would get pretty doubtful at that point. If we spare Boro, we should spare Eonwe as well.

Yep, strongly agree with this. Can't see a wolfpack that included Eonwe letting an innocent Boro live past that day - unless Lommy or Brinn was also in the pack.

So, if Boro is innocent (seer or ordo) either Eonwe is also innocent, or Eonwe is a wolf with Brinn or Lommy.

Unfortunately, if Boro and Eonwe are both innocent, we can't necessarily conclude anything from that about Brinn and Lommy. Boro could still have looked ordoish to the pack for the way he went after Eonwe.

But I think we can say if Eonwe is a wolf, one of Boro, Brinn or Lommy is in his pack.

Now, if Boro is a wolf, this whole plot had to be to flush out the real seer, and the nightkills thus far were people who looked seerish in relation to Boro. mentioned it today:

Originally Posted by Eonwe

I find it more likely that if anything, your fake-seeriness was an attempt to catch the real seer, which is why the two people who challenged you on it, Lalaith and Pitch, are dead.

That makes some sense. But if so, it also means Pitch and Lalaith didn't do anything obviously unseerish (nothing flamboyantly wrong, especially in their last days alive). Looking back ... (since we have you both here, correct me if I'm wrong or miss something important!)

Day 4:
Pitch defends Lommy pretty strongly, then says:

Originally Posted by Pitch

I actually think both Lommy and Lottie sound genuine to me.

Calls Greenie out on double standard (defending her own safe votes while going after Sally for safe votes).

Lalaith suspects Lommy, but in a more noncommittal/non-dreamed way:

Originally Posted by Lalaith

So because I haven't had time to do new analysis toDay I haven't really moved on much from my suspect list of yesterDay. I could add Lommy on there - I admire her chutzpah toDay but I still think her behaviour was suspicious, particularly in her refusal to acknowledge the benefit of having HunterSally as a known innocent.

She mentions putting Shasta on her "watch" list, and wanting to get a handle on Kath, Ka, and Lhuna (before the QT vote).

Says:

Originally Posted by Lalaith

I could vote Eonwe, Brinn, or Boro, (same as my suspect list of yesterday)

She reinforces her suspicion of Brinn by saying the Legate kill pointed to her.

If Lalaith looked seerish, she would be a seer who might intend to dream of a wolf Shasta, Ka or Kath but hadn't yet, possibly dreamed of a Brinn wolf, maybe dreamed a Lommy innocent.

Night 5:
Lalaith gets killed.

Day 5:
Pitch says Lommy and Eonwe look innocent because suspected by Lhuna, but later suggests Eonwe and Ka could be packmates. Questions Boro about his seerish/wolf-slippish stuff. Suspects Greenie, but with points for and against/wishy washy way such that wolves could have still thought he was the seer if Greenie was innocent.

Originally Posted by Pitch

I get where the suspicion of Ka comes from, but I wouldn't want to vote her after she just defended me against Shasta, because it would feel mean. ToMorrow is another question, depending on what happens till then.

Pitch responds to the QT vote by immediately asking if Lhuna decided it, which could have looked seerish if Rune was innocent, but wouldn't necessarily look ordoish if he wasn't. This later post however, would only look seerish if Rune was innocent:

Originally Posted by Pitch

I don't think it's such an outlandish reaction when they vote somebody you felt very much was innocent.

Night 6: Pitch is killed.

If Pitch looked like a seer, he would have looked like one who hadn't dreamed of a wolf yet but might be about to close in on a wolf Ka or Shasta, and had dreamed innocents Rune, Lottie, and Lommy.

So in summary:

Innocent Boro (seer or ordo) means he was safely inaccurate, so:

Eonwe is either innocent, or a wolf with Brinn or Lommy.

In any case, the wolves looked for seers elsewhere which implies:

Lommy, Rune, Lottie likely innocent

Ka, Shasta, Brinn, Greenie, Kath potentially evil

Edit: crossed with everyone since my last

[satansaloser2005]

Back from my nap/lunch break.

[satansaloser2005]

I like the Steve/Brinn/Lommy pack thought. It seems almost too easy though, so I feel like one of those names is wrong just because of how each of those three is playing.

[Inziladun]

Originally Posted by satansaloser2005

I like the Steve/Brinn/Lommy pack thought. It seems almost too easy though, so I feel like one of those names is wrong just because of how each of those three is playing.

I've had a bad feeling about Brinn all game.