Tol-in-Gaurhoth CXIV – The Evil Breath of Morgoth in Dor-lómin, game thread

[Eönwë]

Originally Posted by Boromir88

May you find peace and healing Pitch through these hard times.

Ok, so I think it would be best to explain my oddness yesterday, because I feel like since Day 1 I could be jumped on and lynched in half a heart beat, which is I guess a normal feeling. That would not be good, but everyone deserves an explanation for me being mysterious yesterday.

Rewind to Day 4, I proposed a vote of Lhuna to the QT. That led to the lynching of a wolf. I couldn't remember if anyone else proposed Lhuna, or if it was just me, but I speculated yesterday that it must have meant the innocents in the QT trusted someone here.

I wanted to point the wolves to me and provide cover for the seer, but kind of put me in a bind because I suspected I was the one the QT trusted. So I picked an even more random proposed vote of Rune yesterday. And when the QT agreed it confirmed my feelings. I commented that it was fascinating, because mostly I was amused with being trusted. Got to thinking that a healthy minds don't trust me at all, but something happens when going into the QT that suddenly I was. What does that say about me? Fascinating and amusing.

But the reason for the mystery is I was trying to provide cover for the seer, but send as clear as a signal to the QT that I wasn't so they don't have to follow my vote.

I don't see any benefit to keep up that plan, it was kind of a 1-2 day try to provide cover and maybe get another wolf. In the end I'll be vindicated either in death or in victory. And it will be more beneficial to the community to know this. Maybe I laid it on too thick where the wolves didn't believe it or I have to re-orientate myself and rethink my feelings on others.

In general, I don't think we should sort of play this waiting where not much happens until the QT vote. Part of it is my own schedule, If I don't post at night I definitely won't be able to until 3-4 hours before the DL.

I was wondering when you'd admit to pretending to be the seer, but I honestly find it very hard to believe you.

Lalaith got killed immediately after bringing up your possible wolf-slip, and then Pitch, who brought it up yesterDay, got killed last Night. Either the wolves are expending an incredible amount of effort (when they could be actually looking for the seer) trying to set you up, or you're a wolf.

After your all-but-reveal yesterDay, I decided to not go after you too hard for the rest of the Day to give you the benefit of the doubt, but given that two Nights have passed and you're still alive (and we know the wolves picked up on Kit's slip, even if they did wait a Day), I don't find it likely that your fake-seeriness was innocent.

[Eönwë]

The only possible thing I can imagine that might have led the wolves to not kill you is if they were absolutely certain you were not the seer because you voted for me two Days in a row (and if you were the seer you probably would've actually dreamed me if you suspected me), but I find that highly unlikely.

[Eönwë]

I find it more likely that if anything, your fake-seeriness was an attempt to catch the real seer, which is why the two people who challenged you on it, Lalaith and Pitch, are dead.

[Loslote]

Originally Posted by Eönwë

I find it more likely that if anything, your fake-seeriness was an attempt to catch the real seer, which is why the two people who challenged you on it, Lalaith and Pitch, are dead.

This is a valid point, but there are a bunch of reasons to pretend to be the Seer. It might divert attention away from the real Seer, and it might make people nervous - I noticed that everyone got a lot quieter after Boro started hinting, and I started trying to see who got a bit more nervous and less willing to tie themselves to people while we waited to see if he'd caught a wolf! Could it have been a way to try to bait the Seer? Could be, I don't think we can ignore that, but it's certainly not the only plausible reason to do it. I personally felt that Boro's play here seemed very much like something an innocent Boro would be likely to do.

[Eönwë]

Originally Posted by Loslote

This is a valid point, but there are a bunch of reasons to pretend to be the Seer. It might divert attention away from the real Seer, and it might make people nervous - I noticed that everyone got a lot quieter after Boro started hinting, and I started trying to see who got a bit more nervous and less willing to tie themselves to people while we waited to see if he'd caught a wolf! Could it have been a way to try to bait the Seer? Could be, I don't think we can ignore that, but it's certainly not the only plausible reason to do it. I personally felt that Boro's play here seemed very much like something an innocent Boro would be likely to do.

I can see where you're coming from. Maybe I'm not being completely fair to the idea of an innocent Boro doing this because I already strongly suspect him, but there are already other reasons to suspect him. Additionally, I was willing to buy that some of the weird focuses and lists that he made (that made me suspicious) were something he would do as a seer to leave hints/clues that he could show later, but if he's just an innocent I don't buy it.

[Boromir88]

Originally Posted by Loslote

Thanks for explaining - I wasn't sure what you were up to, haha! Even not knowing what you were doing, I didn't think your hinting had wolfish vibes at all, which is why I kind of backed off without actually saying so. I do feel good about this explanation. It feels genuine and like something an innocent Boro would absolutely try. Do you have a theory as to why the wolves didn't Night kill you?

Don't know other than perhaps my assumptions of people being innocent were wrong. Like I've assumed Brinn's innocence since the 2 times the QT voted for her. That could have been wrong.

Currently I find THE Ka the most suspicious, but if she is a wolf I don't think I sent any strong signals that I had insight/dreamed her.

The strongest I've sent was yesterday towards my vote for Eonwe for jumping on the QT vote. So I could be wrong there, which would tip them off to me not being the seer

Originally Posted by Eönwë

I was wondering when you'd admit to pretending to be the seer, but I honestly find it very hard to believe you.

Lalaith got killed immediately after bringing up your possible wolf-slip, and then Pitch, who brought it up yesterDay, got killed last Night. Either the wolves are expending an incredible amount of effort (when they could be actually looking for the seer) trying to set you up, or you're a wolf.

After your all-but-reveal yesterDay, I decided to not go after you too hard for the rest of the Day to give you the benefit of the doubt, but given that two Nights have passed and you're still alive (and we know the wolves picked up on Kit's slip, even if they did wait a Day), I don't find it likely that your fake-seeriness was innocent.

I'm someone everyone suspects. If I've gotten my suspicions and/or who I've assumed as innocent wrong then the wolves would know I'm not the seer. Which means they would let me stay around to keep me as an easy lynch. I haven't acquired a lot of votes yet, but I don't think it's going to take a lot of convincing to lynch me. Why kill a person no one trusts, and who you can tell isn't gifted, when it's rather obvious Rikae, Legate, Pitch were more trusted?

[Loslote]

Originally Posted by Eönwë

I was wondering when you'd admit to pretending to be the seer, but I honestly find it very hard to believe you.

Lalaith got killed immediately after bringing up your possible wolf-slip, and then Pitch, who brought it up yesterDay, got killed last Night. Either the wolves are expending an incredible amount of effort (when they could be actually looking for the seer) trying to set you up, or you're a wolf.

After your all-but-reveal yesterDay, I decided to not go after you too hard for the rest of the Day to give you the benefit of the doubt, but given that two Nights have passed and you're still alive (and we know the wolves picked up on Kit's slip, even if they did wait a Day), I don't find it likely that your fake-seeriness was innocent.

On the other hand, if he was the Seer, and he hinted that blatantly, he would have told us his information before the end of the Day. I did think he might be the Seer when he started hinting, but by the time the Day was over, I was pretty convinced he wasn't, and had pretended to be hinting for his own reasons. I assume the wolves had a similar thought process. The Seer doesn't hint without claiming and giving the village their dreams before they die, that would be ridiculous.

[Eönwë]

Originally Posted by Loslote

On the other hand, if he was the Seer, and he hinted that blatantly, he would have told us his information before the end of the Day. I did think he might be the Seer when he started hinting, but by the time the Day was over, I was pretty convinced he wasn't, and had pretended to be hinting for his own reasons. I assume the wolves had a similar thought process. The Seer doesn't hint without claiming and giving the village their dreams before they die, that would be ridiculous.

You mean yesterDay or the Day before?

I suspect the first thing he said, that Lalaith picked up on, was actually a slip, and after Lalaith picked up on, they (or at least he) tried to capitalize on it by making it too obvious the next Day.

[Loslote]

Originally Posted by Eönwë

You mean yesterDay or the Day before?

I suspect the first thing he said, that Lalaith picked up on, was actually a slip, and after Lalaith picked up on, they (or at least he) tried to capitalize on it by making it too obvious the next Day.

YesterDay. I didn't really notice the slip the Day before until it got brought back up.

[Eönwë]

And even if they did think it was ridiculous, Boro does sometimes play bold moves, and would it really be worth the risk for the wolves to let him live? I admit I haven't played as a wolf in a long time, but I at least feel like some packs wouldn't chance it.


edit: x-ed since my last post.

[Loslote]

Originally Posted by Eönwë

And even if they did think it was ridiculous, Boro does sometimes play bold moves, and would it really be worth the risk for the wolves to let him live? I admit I haven't played as a wolf in a long time, but I at least feel like some packs wouldn't chance it.

Maybe ridiculous is the wrong word. As a Seer, if you know you've been hinting and that basically everyone noticed, I can't think of a single scenario where you wouldn't reveal what you know. Unless every single person you dreamed of is already dead, I guess. If you know you're almost certainly going to be killed, you tell the village what you know. The fact that he didn't say anything before the deadline about his dreams told me he was NOT the Seer, and I'm sure the wolves were also able to figure that one out.

[Eönwë]

Originally Posted by Loslote

Maybe ridiculous is the wrong word. As a Seer, if you know you've been hinting and that basically everyone noticed, I can't think of a single scenario where you wouldn't reveal what you know. Unless every single person you dreamed of is already dead, I guess. If you know you're almost certainly going to be killed, you tell the village what you know. The fact that he didn't say anything before the deadline about his dreams told me he was NOT the Seer, and I'm sure the wolves were also able to figure that one out.

I still think his potential slip the previous Day (where it looked like he knew the identity of two innocents - now proven to be true) would be enough to make me want to make sure if I were a wolf.

[Eönwë]

By which I mean Zil was proven to be true. The jury is still out on Brinn and maybe Lommy (depending on how you read the post).