Tol-in-Gaurhoth CXIV – The Evil Breath of Morgoth in Dor-lómin, game thread

[A Little Green]

++ Inziladun

I don't think I need to reiterate why he's suspicious, but as to why vote for him -

First, and quite simply, I think he's the most suspicious person around.
Second, I think everyone who has votes so far is a possible wolf, so I don't have a particular interest in putting someone in the lead to save someone else (sounds cold-hearted, I know); out of those who currently have votes, I somewhat suspect Lhuna and Boro and lean innocent but am not convinced about Lommy and Eonwe.
Third, I think a vote that is more spread out gives us more info later on; as we've seen, giant bandwagons are easy places to hide.

[Pitchwife]

Originally Posted by A Little Green

I think everyone who has votes so far is a possible wolf, so I don't have a particular interest in putting someone in the lead to save someone else (sounds cold-hearted, I know)

'I think everyone who has votes so far is a possible wolf, so I'll vote for a fifth person who is a likely candidate for getting lynched." - *ping*

[Loslote]

Originally Posted by Pitchwife

'I think everyone who has votes so far is a possible wolf, so I'll vote for a fifth person who is a likely candidate for getting lynched." - *ping*

I'm not fundamentally opposed to quarantining Zil toDay, but I am a little suspicious of the people who are pushing for it, as I think we could learn a lot more if we quarantined someone else. Zil's been so suspected for so long that even if he is a wolf, there's no way the wolves haven't already distanced themselves.

[Lalaith]

OK I think it's a bit rude that we are completely ignoring the QT vote. I'm saying that in the spirit of someone who (as per my previous post) hasn't really looked at Lhuna.

[Thinlómien]

Originally Posted by Lalaith

OK I think it's a bit rude that we are completely ignoring the QT vote. I'm saying that in the spirit of someone who (as per my previous post) hasn't really looked at Lhuna.

A bunch of dead innocents think she's the most suspicious person here/ someone we should pay more attention to. But as long as we don't know their reasoning, what can we do except say "ditto, noted"?

Granted, someone could have rushed to analyse Lhuna's posts. It's actually a good idea, but no one did so. Now it's a little late because it would probably take at least half an hour (unless someone is already at it?). But if Lhuna is alive toMorrow, maybe we should do the dead thread a favour and have a closer look at her.

Clarification: this doesn't mean that I'm not considering voting Lhuna. It just means that I'm considering it only a rather flimsy basis, which doesn't make me too happy.

[Boromir88]

Originally Posted by Thinlómien

Granted, someone could have rushed to analyse Lhuna's posts. It's actually a good idea, but no one did so. Now it's a little late because it would probably take at least half an hour (unless someone is already at it?). But if Lhuna is alive toMorrow, maybe we should do the dead thread a favour and have a closer look at her.

I haven't done one today, haven't quite had the time to follow too close. Trying to catch up on the details of today. This was I think from Day 2:

#502

[Lalaith]

Originally Posted by Lalaith

OK I think it's a bit rude that we are completely ignoring the QT vote. I'm saying that in the spirit of someone who (as per my previous post) hasn't really looked at Lhuna.

I'm actually talking to myself here mostly btw. Another thing that is slightly unsettling me is that I was all set to vote for Eonwe but now the QT has dissed the person who was the first to vote for him.

[Lalaith]

But if Lhuna is alive toMorrow, maybe we should do the dead thread a favour and have a closer look at her.

Yes - definitely.

[Loslote]

Originally Posted by Lalaith

Yes - definitely.

Could be read as a Seer hint? From her posts yesterDay, I don't see much confidence towards anyone's innocence or guilt. If anything, maybe they thought her previous Nights' dream was Legate, and that's why she was bummed to find him dead? Otherwise, not sure who they would've thought she dreamed on Night 4.

[Pitchwife]

Originally Posted by Lalaith

I'm actually talking to myself here mostly btw. Another thing that is slightly unsettling me is that I was all set to vote for Eonwe but now the QT has dissed the person who was the first to vote for him.

You and me both.

[Brinniel]

Originally Posted by Lommy

Granted, someone could have rushed to analyse Lhuna's posts. It's actually a good idea, but no one did so. Now it's a little late because it would probably take at least half an hour (unless someone is already at it?). But if Lhuna is alive toMorrow, maybe we should do the dead thread a favour and have a closer look at her.

Well, I did do an analysis of her yesterDay, but I don't have time to look any further into her posts toDay.

I could vote for Lhuna, but my preference lies with Inzil.

[Thinlómien]

Originally Posted by Lalaith

I'm actually talking to myself here mostly btw. Another thing that is slightly unsettling me is that I was all set to vote for Eonwe but now the QT has dissed the person who was the first to vote for him.

I don't know why we should read too much into that. Wolf-on-wolf is always a possibility. Eönwë hasn't been under that much suspicion; a packmate Lhuna could vote him quite safely. Also, Lhuna voted an hour before the QT deadline which is probably but not certainly enough time for the QT to react to. At any rate, I don't see why we should assume their vote says more about their thoughts on Eönwë's role than Lhuna's.

[Boromir88]

Originally Posted by Lalaith

I'm actually talking to myself here mostly btw. Another thing that is slightly unsettling me is that I was all set to vote for Eonwe but now the QT has dissed the person who was the first to vote for him.

I would say most of our days have gone far too narrow. We put ourselves into pretty much just 2 options. Day 1 was G55 and Brinn. Day 2 Mac and Huey, Yesterday Inzil and sally. Today Lommy and Inzil.

I don't know a whole lot about the advocates for it, but I think we need a day where there's a lot more spread. Force the wolves into some tougher choices, instead of just picking between 2 innocents or whether they wanted to bus wolf-Huey or not.

[Lalaith]

Brinniel has fallen completely under my reindeer and I consider that an issue.

This is cute.

[Thinlómien]

Originally Posted by Boromir88

I would say most of our days have gone far too narrow. We put ourselves into pretty much just 2 options. Day 1 was G55 and Brinn. Day 2 Mac and Huey, Yesterday Inzil and sally. Today Lommy and Inzil.

I don't know a whole lot about the advocates for it, but I think we need a day where there's a lot more spread. Force the wolves into some tougher choices, instead of just picking between 2 innocents or whether they wanted to bus wolf-Huey or not.

I agree with the sentiment but I think "whether they want to bus wolf-Huey or not" is a tough enough choice.

[Shastanis Althreduin]

Originally Posted by Boromir88

I would say most of our days have gone far too narrow. We put ourselves into pretty much just 2 options. Day 1 was G55 and Brinn. Day 2 Mac and Huey, Yesterday Inzil and sally. Today Lommy and Inzil.

I don't know a whole lot about the advocates for it, but I think we need a day where there's a lot more spread. Force the wolves into some tougher choices, instead of just picking between 2 innocents or whether they wanted to bus wolf-Huey or not.

I do not at all feel that the day has been narrowed to Lommy and Inzil.

[Pitchwife]

Originally Posted by Boromir88

I would say most of our days have gone far too narrow. We put ourselves into pretty much just 2 options. Day 1 was G55 and Brinn. Day 2 Mac and Huey, Yesterday Inzil and sally. Today Lommy and Inzil.

I don't know a whole lot about the advocates for it, but I think we need a day where there's a lot more spread. Force the wolves into some tougher choices, instead of just picking between 2 innocents or whether they wanted to bus wolf-Huey or not.

This makes me really not want to vote Boro toDay.

I don't like doing this while he's away, and I've been second-guessing it quite a bit after Lhuna's vote and the QT vote, but I might as well.

++Eönwë

[Thinlómien]

Greenie's analysis is very interesting and informative. I'm trying to take it with a pinch of salt, but it's exactly the kind of important data I've been too lazy to harvest myself so I'm very thirsty for it. Also I have to say that if Greenie is a wolf she's putting admirably much effort into something that doesn't hugely benefit her. (Sure, good way to find unfortunate innocents who might have been implicated by the deaths of her fellows. But likely hard to not end up implicating her remaining fellows to a degree in the process?)

Originally Posted by Pitch

Now I don't recall playing with Lhuna before, so to those who have: How much wolf-on-wolf do you think she'd be willing to engage in?

I don't have a particular recollection about that, but she has a thing for doing brash things while somehow not appearing quite as brash. Look how she got away with self-voting on Day1 as a wolf in this game! I certainly wouldn't entirely discredit even brutal wolf-on-wolf from her.

[Eönwë]

I'll share the whole interaction here:

Originally Posted by Boromir88

I would say most of our days have gone far too narrow. We put ourselves into pretty much just 2 options. Day 1 was G55 and Brinn. Day 2 Mac and Huey, Yesterday Inzil and sally. Today Lommy and Inzil.

I don't know a whole lot about the advocates for it, but I think we need a day where there's a lot more spread. Force the wolves into some tougher choices, instead of just picking between 2 innocents or whether they wanted to bus wolf-Huey or not.

Originally Posted by Lalaith

How do you know that's what happened on Day 1?
Hmm?

Originally Posted by Boromir88

I'm willing to bet G55 and Huey had fun trolling us for 2 days in the QT.

Originally Posted by Lalaith

so presumably you think Zil is innocent too?

Originally Posted by Boromir88

He is not my preferred choice today, because I think we should take the signal from the QT. It's been my argument for several days now. I want to test this proposed voting and signals between here and the QT. Other than that reason, I couldn't say.

It would be a lot easier to argue that this wasn't a slip if it turned out that

[Rune Son of Bjarne]

Originally Posted by Lalaith

OK I think it's a bit rude that we are completely ignoring the QT vote. I'm saying that in the spirit of someone who (as per my previous post) hasn't really looked at Lhuna.

I think it is interesting that Lhuna , a relatively non-vocal player (at least not great quantities of posts), choses to introduce her theory that there we are dealing with submarine-wolves in a relatively subdued manner. Also she only does so after she has cast a vote fore Eonwe.

I am afraid I don't have an analysis though.

[Shastanis Althreduin]

Here and reading. Without having read the last two-plus pages or so, I'd probably be voting for Lommy if forced. Let's see if my mind changes any.

[Kath]

Originally Posted by Lommy

Granted, someone could have rushed to analyse Lhuna's posts. It's actually a good idea, but no one did so. Now it's a little late because it would probably take at least half an hour (unless someone is already at it?). But if Lhuna is alive toMorrow, maybe we should do the dead thread a favour and have a closer look at her.

I mean, I did for her first two Days and definitely thought she was suspicious, pretty much down to her involvement in the Kit discussion. I'll carry on now but it'll have to be speedy.

Post 394:

Originally Posted by Lhuna

It just occurred to me... For all intents and purposes, a vote for G55 is still a vote for an innocent (i.e. non-wolf). Maybe it's worth looking at those who voted for G55 as well. So, shamelessly stealing and combining Boro's and Eönwë's lists (with the non-G55 or Rikae votes in double brackets)...

So she then finds me suspicious because she couldn't track my suspicion of G55; thinks Inzil was too confident in his vote for G55 given he hadn't particularly explained his suspicions; leaning innocent on Lottie; thinks Lommy is suspicious I think for being a bit gungho about the lynch of G55; some suspicion of Hui with thoughts of a Hui-Brinn wolf pair; suspicious of Brinn for the 'trap' comment that had come up quite a lot that Day.

Post 398

Originally Posted by Lhuna

No one's asking the real Ranger to come out, and frankly I doubt it needs to be said.

In response to Lottie. I did agree with the sentiment, but my issue was that this was again putting the discussion back into the light.

Post 425

Wait let me see if I get this right. If Legate is innocent it could be easy to build a case against him, so you suspected Pitch because he picked on Legate. Then you eased up on suspecting Pitch because you did not want to be caught in a bandwagon that could be orchestrated by wolves.

I'm just... Lost. Shouldn't one back off from suspecting someone because of what they said, not because you're worried about what others would think if you end up voting for an innocent? Not helping your case here.

Continued suspicion of Brinn. Had Mac, Lommy and Brinn as her possible votes, though she seemed to be almost discounting Mac in the same statement for being too obvious.

Post 431
Votes Lommy. No actual explanation in the vote post. I didn't spot anything very substantial about Lommy bar the stuff about the G55 situation.

Post 661
Mentions about catching the Hui possible slip with the wolf emails comment.

Originally Posted by Lhuna

With 5 wolves I'm not discounting a wolf on wolf even after the Huitrain started to gain serious steam (that did seem to come off left field didn't it?). But based on the voting alone I'm inclined to think Leggie innocent, it doesn't seem reasonable for a wolf to offer his packmate up to be sacrificed when he wasn't in real danger of getting lynched, or to try to convince others to vote for him.

Also, I'm not sure why Shasta appears innocent for holding his vote. It looked incredibly fishy to me, but I probably need a deeper reading for context.

This didn't stand out to me as much different to the rest of the discussion around the Hui votes. Interesting comment on Shasta.

Post 862
Gives her apologies for the no vote the Day before.

Thinks all Eonwe's votes have been suspicious; Shasta for holding his vote around the Hui lynch and flipflopping on sally; Boro for holding his vote on Hui and sort of just throwing in with the crowd on sally.

Post 948
Votes Eonwe.

Originally Posted by Lhuna

My suspicion of him based on his voting pattern stands.

If Lommy and/or Boro are wolves, then their longevity as a pack would be better served by having a couple of relatively submarine packmates. And while I'm still convinced they're both suspicious, this village has so far had the bad habit of lynching those who are in the middle of the controversy of the Day who more often than not turn out to be innocent, and I'm sick of imagining the wolves cackling to themselves as they watch. Also, giving both of them one more Day and Night's worth of scrutiny should yield something a little bit more concrete.

i'm also not convinced about how Lommy explained that killing Legate as a possible Seer places Rune in a good light. I don't think Legate would have been that vocal about dreaming of him if he were the Seer.

This I think is one of her most explained votes. She isn't wrong about the controversy driven lynches!

Post 956

Originally Posted by Lhuna

The most Seerish thing Legate did that stood out to me was encouraging a vote for Hui and looking for support. I think it's more likely he would stick his neck out, as we see in hindsight, to point out a wolf than an innocent, like he would have done with Rune on Day 1 in your scenario.

I say this because I've been thinking Rune might be another submarine wolf. Given that I suspect you, this could be a way for you to use a Seer-candidate's words to keep others from taking a closer look at Rune. And it bothers me that at least a couple of people have agreed with you about him.

Post 959

Originally Posted by Lhuna

Differing Seer tactics, I guess. I certainly wouldn't single one person out as innocent on Day 1.

This came form debating Lommy about what to look for in terms of possible Seer hints.

Comments on the QT vote: Hmm. Interesting.

I've really just pulled the biggest things from each post as I was working through them fast.

I'll have cross posted with everything from 991 onwards.

[Thinlómien]

Originally Posted by Pitchwife

'I think everyone who has votes so far is a possible wolf, so I'll vote for a fifth person who is a likely candidate for getting lynched." - *ping*

Yeah but, tbh, it also makes Greenie sound like someone who has nothing to lose. Suck as packmate's lives. So if she's a wolf, either she doesn't care about a packmate getting offed a this point (they could possibly afford it but I doubt they'd want it?), or none of her packmates is among the voted ones so far. Which would make them quite a formidable team

Originally Posted by Loslote

I'm not fundamentally opposed to quarantining Zil toDay, but I am a little suspicious of the people who are pushing for it, as I think we could learn a lot more if we quarantined someone else. Zil's been so suspected for so long that even if he is a wolf, there's no way the wolves haven't already distanced themselves.

I agree with this assesment, but as I said with Sally (lol), better a likelier wolf lynch than a potentially more informative one.

I'm still a little undecided, and a little afraid that I might need to hold onto my vote a little longer in case the wind starts blowing my way again.

[Boromir88]

Originally Posted by Thinlómien

I'm still a little undecided, and a little afraid that I might need to hold onto my vote a little longer in case the wind starts blowing my way again.

I'm sure this will creep people out, since I'm also saying it. But I'm holding my vote too...maybe not to the last 2 minutes again. I'd prefer not to, but I'm saying it with the intention of putting some minds at ease.

[Thinlómien]

Lhuna -> Eönwë
Eönwë -> Boro
QT -> Lhuna
Inzil -> Lommy
Lottie -> Boro 2
Greenie -> Zil

[Shastanis Althreduin]

Originally Posted by Thinlómien

Lhuna -> Eönwë
Eönwë -> Boro
QT -> Lhuna
Inzil -> Lommy
Lottie -> Boro 2
Greenie -> Zil

I'm pretty okay with this tally. The QT vote for Lhuna is interesting - unsure if I want to follow up on it today, but I don't think she and I are ever going to agree about how long I held my vote the day we QT'd Huin, and I can't decide if I think it's wolvish or not.

I currently think there's a Lommy/Boro connection - specifically I think there's a case for them being wolves together. It's at gut-and-pings level right now; if I were to research anything it would probably be that.

Zil and Eonwe both have minor dings against them but also both have places where I agreed with what they had to say, so...

[Shastanis Althreduin]

Originally Posted by A Little Green

++ Inziladun

I don't think I need to reiterate why he's suspicious, but as to why vote for him -

First, and quite simply, I think he's the most suspicious person around.
Second, I think everyone who has votes so far is a possible wolf, so I don't have a particular interest in putting someone in the lead to save someone else (sounds cold-hearted, I know); out of those who currently have votes, I somewhat suspect Lhuna and Boro and lean innocent but am not convinced about Lommy and Eonwe.
Third, I think a vote that is more spread out gives us more info later on; as we've seen, giant bandwagons are easy places to hide.

I have zero problems with this - this is almost exactly my own train of thought (bar that I seem to be more suspicious of Lommy than Greenie appears to be.)

[Shastanis Althreduin]

Do I like Lottie? My immediate reaction is that yes, I like Lottie, but ask me why and I don't think I could tell you. Huh.

[Shastanis Althreduin]

Brinniel has fallen completely under my reindeer and I consider that an issue.

(I'm in stream-of-consciousness-mode, apparently.)

[Rune Son of Bjarne]

I am down to voting either Eonwe or Inzil.

The whole Lhuna thing is interesting, but no way I can make myself vote for her pretty much solely based on the QT-vote.

Of the two Eonwes behaviour is the one that has struck me as the most wolfish, where the wolfish traits of Inzil often have been pointed out by others before I noticed them myself. One is of course always wary of being manipulated. On the other side Inzil's attitude towards Lommy today really bothers me, and most of my grieviances with Eonwe is a bit further back (though he could be said to have been unhelpful-helpful today).