Tol-in-Gaurhoth CXIV – The Evil Breath of Morgoth in Dor-lómin, game thread

[Pitchwife]

Originally Posted by Kitanna

I'm surprised myself. And if people don't believe me, then I'm not sure what to say.
Because honestly, I had a crap RL day and seeing G55's fake reveal sent me over the edge and I stupidly had a knee-jerk reaction. And that's all I'm going to say. I thought I'd be pegged in the night. I wasn't. So either people believe me or they don't. Either way, I'm going to continue to plug along in my reread.

OK, I must say this kind of makes sense, or at least I'm inclined to believe Kit for now. It would really make no sense for a wolf to stick their neck out like that, because

• if G55 died as the Ranger, she would come under fire the next Day, and
• if G55 died as an ordo (or cobbler), we'd question how Kit could have known that, as we do now.

Why would she needlessly put herself into this predicament?


Anyway, I move we leave Kit alone for now. Let's see how long the wolves can afford to let a Ranger live.

[Huinesoron]

Originally Posted by Pitchwife

Anyway, I move we leave Kit alone for now. Let's see how long the wolves can afford to let a Ranger live.

Timeline check: cross-posted with me (6 minutes earlier), or written after seeing it?

hS

[Pitchwife]

Originally Posted by Huinesoron

Timeline check: cross-posted with me (6 minutes earlier), or written after seeing it?

hS

Saw it as I was writing.

[Nogrod]

Urwen is leaving the game. She is not Mod-fired, but leaves on her own initiative.

I'll write her off in toDay's narrative.


So please do not vote for her toDay. It will be a zero-vote.

[Lhunardawen]

Originally Posted by Nogrod

Urwen is leaving the game. She is not Mod-fired, but leaves on her own initiative.

I'll write her off in toDay's narrative.


So please do not vote for her toDay. It will be a zero-vote.

Will she still be quarantined?

[Legate of Amon Lanc]

Chiming in, and I did not like this debate at all:

Originally Posted by Pitchwife

I third this. [Zil, my eyebrow raised at you earlier was me doubting you should have drawn attention to it, but it's out in the open now anyway.] It would have been very bold of a wolf to react this way to a gifted reveal, but it would have been very bold of an innocent too.

Originally Posted by Inziladun

It could hardly have stayed hidden. Thing is, the only way she could have known G55 wasn't who she claimed was if she was the Ranger herself. If that's the case, why on Arda would Rikae have been a better target over Kit (unless the Wolves indeed were antsy Rikae might be the Seer)?

Originally Posted by Pitchwife

But seriously, Kit, if that is so, how are you alive? Another framing attempt?

Sorry guys. But you are both suspicious as Morgoth wearing a tutu under the Two Trees. When you mentioned it first, fine. When you clarified that you wouldn't have talked about it if it didn't seem clear that it was "out in the open" anyway, fine. But when you continued battering it even after Kit answered you, I was like, what in the name of all the sons of Fëanor?!?

There is also one very nice option about why not Kit - that the WWs thought they could get the village to lynch her. Or perhaps they were not entirely convinced (to be fair, that comment of Kit's could be read in many absolutely "innocent" ways!) and preferred not to risk it and/or they wanted to see if they can further get someone else to contest it or whatever.

Also, you guys should both realise that if Kit survived because she was a Wolf, then why would she make that comment in the first place?

All in all, your behaviour makes very little sense and we don't like it at all, no, precious.

And I think this debate should never have happened to begin with. Howgh.

[Inziladun]

I was prepared to let it go, however:

Originally Posted by Legate of Amon Lanc

There is also one very nice option about why not Kit - that the WWs thought they could get the village to lynch her. Or perhaps they were not entirely convinced (to be fair, that comment of Kit's could be read in many absolutely "innocent" ways!) and preferred not to risk it and/or they wanted to see if they can further get someone else to contest it or whatever.

I had (and have) no intention of voting for her. It just made no sense that Wolves would have let her alone.

Originally Posted by Legate of Amon Lanc

Also, you guys should both realise that if Kit survived because she was a Wolf, then why would she make that comment in the first place?

.

I didn't know. That's why I wanted clarification.

[Kitanna]

So this is who I have left to review:
Thinlómien
Legate of Amon Lanc
Huinesoron
Loslote
Pitchwife
Inziladun
A Little Green
Boromir88
Rune Son of Bjarne
Shastanis Althreduin
*Cries*
I removed Brinn for now, at least for yesterDay's posts, ideally I'll be able to look in-depth at toDay's posts, but honestly, the future does not look bright for me. I also took off the dearly quarantined. I figure anything I missed of G55 and Rikae is being covered in-depth toDay in light of their demises.

Inzil
Post #6: Banter
Post #8: Mostly more banter. And by mostly I mean a little "hmmmm" toward Huin's comment about overloading the Downs.
Post #19: Banter
Post #25:

Originally Posted by Inzil

Speculating on what those there are doing? No point. It's difficult (though not impossible!) to see a wolf being the first gone, but if that happened it could be useful.

Post #34: Comments on Legate's discussion of the fake vote. States the plan is kind of what already happens.
Post #50: Continues to debate Legate, states wolves will have a good idea of the way the wind is going and can plan accordingly, in regards to fake/no vote.
Post #53: Agrees with THE Ka on some points, more of the same on wolves using a fake vote to twist things.
Post #54: Some comments on Mac's posts. More on the fact a fake vote can help the wolves. It's all very short and some head nodding and reiterating the same information in different ways.
Post #82: Some more comments on the goings on, back and forth with Greenie. Says Legate feels off. Says the wolves would be reluctant to target the cobbler, though the cobbler would be hinting if they kept to their best interest. Ends the post wanting to look more at G55 and Legate.
Post #86: More comments on other people's thoughts. Personally, I don't find these helpful or telling in getting a read on Inzil. It's a lot of speculation and clarification on points.
Post #99: More of the same.
Post #102: Says doesn't suspect Pitch, and that raises alarm bells.
Post #205:

Boro was creeping me out early on, but that feeling has somewhat lessened.

I didn't read anything Inzil said in comments to Boro as him being creeped out, but more of a history of distrust over many games.

Originally Posted by Inzil

Conventional pack behavior might point to one or two loudmouths, one middle-of-the-road, and the rest under the radar.

Says G55 has been main suspect. Calls on Brinn who said she didn't want to get caught in a trap, parroting Rikae who said that comment was interesting.
Post #222: Questions Urwen's vote. And asks would a wolf be so careless?
Post #227: More on Urwen's
Post #228: Doesn't like the Brinnwagon. He had mentioned Brinn earlier as "interesting" for her trap comment, but otherwise, not much on her.
Post #231: Mentioned a "last night" comment from Shasta earlier and brings it up again here. Comes to the conclusion meant a literal RL last night and not last Night. Which, not sure why that wasn't his first thought?
Post #241: Votes G55, he was pretty consistent in suspecting her. So not really a surprise.
Post #265: Facepalm for the fake reveal
Post #273: Asks if everyone voted.
Post #287: Starting off toDay with

Rikae was the first vote on Brinn, and it must be significant that the wolves went after her. It's far too early for them to have been simply wanting to frame someone.

I find all the talk of framing interesting. Not that I can't see the reasoning behind a theory on framing, it just seems like a lot of chatter on Day 2 about it. Which seems like a lot in comparsiion to other games, but it's been a long time, maybe this is normal.
Post #290:

I thought she looked dodgy at the end of yesterDay. After so heavily going after G55, she failed to vote that way. I wondered if a Rikae-wolf hadn't started picking up the Cobblerishness.

Post #292: Posits the first question about my reaction to the reveal.
Post #296: Says Eonwe's was odd.
Post #297: Responds to Pitch about it being too early for a frame up, believes there were better options.
Post #304:

Maybe. Hers was the first vote on Brinn, and then she got a little scratchy with those of us avoiding that wagon. That could point toward a Brinnwolf, but it could also lead back to the idea of a frameup.

With the frame up ideas toDay, not just from Inzil. I just don't see it. Not at this stage.
Post #307: Responds to Pitch on something I don't quite understand...
Post #316:

Originally Posted by Inzil

Elaborate, by all means.

You know, I'd like elaboration on this too. I looked back at the Inzil's post proceeding the ping and am not really sure what Pitch pinged. Inzil made plenty of short posts and any one of them could have raised Pitch's eyebrows, but which and why?
Post #315: Approves of Eonwe's vote in spirit, but still says it wasn't helpful.
Post #321: Calls out Urwen for cryptic posts.
Post #325:

G55 had been my only real suspect all Day. The sudden push for Brinn made me wonder if someone wasn't trying to save a Galwolf.

Post #330: Tells Urwen to try their best, regardless of role.
Post #362: Comments on a Boro post about a Rikae trap set for a Brinnwolf. Says he didn't see it as a trap and didn't see Rikae as assumed innocent at end of Day. Agrees with Kath on speculation Rikae might have been thought to be the seer. Not sure of Legate and Pitch opportunistic if Brinn is innocent.
Post #372: Back to my G55 reveal comment.
Post #377: Can't fathom why I'm still alive unless it was believed Rikae was seer or I'm bold.
Post #379: More seer-Rikae notes and thinks lynch candidates should be those Rikae might have made uneasy.
Post #383: Response to Huin about pressing me for info.
And that's it.
I find it hard to get a decent read on Inzil. He spoke a lot and what he said was pretty consistent. He has been in the thick of things, but reads as playing it safe. Which, could probably be said of a number of others too. I'll just put him in my unsure pile for now.

[Boromir88]

Sneaking in again to say thank you Kit and more for your efforts to continue your analysis. Will be completely free within the next 2 hours until the DL.

[Loslote]

In reading toDay's posts, I have found myself very suspicious of Zil, due to his bringing up the Kit situation. I haven't necessarily gotten a "wolf feeling" off of him prior to this, but I haven't exactly gotten an "innocent feeling", either, and I can more easily believe that the wolves decided it was worth while to bring up the Kit situation than that an innocent just decided to make it open and public rather than trying to quietly ignore it. I have also found myself wary of Pitch, for continuing to talk about it, but there is some plausible deniability in that Zil mentioned it first.

I didn't like Boro's posts earlier toDay, but as he mentioned me as a suspect, I decided to sleep on it before reacting. He does have a point that I shouldn't just assume Brinn is innocent - but I think his reasons for suspecting Brinn are weird, and I don't like that he uses Rikae's trap "catching" Brinn as a reason to suspect her. It feels too "well, known innocent says!" for my tastes.

I am very concerned by Mac's response to the Night kill. It feels to me like he was very prepared to insist that it was a frame job, not a Macwolf killing a possible Seer, almost like he knew it was coming and had a whole Night to work up the paranoia. He is definitely high on my suspect list.

I am not comfortable with Lommy's posts toDay, but as I might be a bit biased due to her suspecting me, I'm going to take a minute to make sure I'm not being blinded by that before taking a closer look at her.

On a more positive note, I am getting an innocent vibe from Legate after reading his posts toDay.

[Legate of Amon Lanc]

Okay, and I am getting bad vibe from Lottie's post above.

It essentially says "I am suspicious of the people who did something toDay that has provoked controversy" - that could easily also mean "I am a Wolf waiting for people to pick which of the bandwagons that are offering themselves toDay would be the best to ride on". These are literally all the things that were controversial toDay, stated by someone else, so I could imagine Lothwolf writing it here to "butter up" people who first stated it. I am wary.

Similar kind of behaviour I have been noticing toDay still also in Huinesoron, to a degree - even though in his case, it is rather along the lines of "I comment on XY, but then again just so that you don't think, I do not really mean it, but thought you should know".

I have been feeling a bit better about Kitanna - her lengthy analyses lean more genuine - but I am still very much on the verge about her.

There are lots of people who are on my mind now, but I'll be on-and-off for a while now still, so excuse random tidbits.

EDIT: x-ed with Pitch and onwards

[Huinesoron]

Originally Posted by Legate of Amon Lanc

Similar kind of behaviour I have been noticing toDay still also in Huinesoron, to a degree - even though in his case, it is rather along the lines of "I comment on XY, but then again just so that you don't think, I do not really mean it, but thought you should know".

My problem right now is that the current big thing is the Kit discussion, and it doesn't seem to be breaking along any kind of lines, and in particular along any of the lines I noted earlier. As just one example: you and Lottie entered the discussion with posts saying similar things, but now you suspect her for a post on a different aspect.

Which is exactly what I'd expect from an innocent! I'm not seeing anyone jumping out at me as a wolf, so I'm worried the whole thing is just villagers savaging villagers while the wolves look on and laugh.

I've also been wanting to see more from Mac, and I see he posted right before you did. Time to see what he has to say for himself.

hS

[Inziladun]

Originally Posted by Loslote

In reading toDay's posts, I have found myself very suspicious of Zil, due to his bringing up the Kit situation. I haven't necessarily gotten a "wolf feeling" off of him prior to this, but I haven't exactly gotten an "innocent feeling", either, and I can more easily believe that the wolves decided it was worth while to bring up the Kit situation than that an innocent just decided to make it open and public rather than trying to quietly ignore it. I have also found myself wary of Pitch, for continuing to talk about it, but there is some plausible deniability in that Zil mentioned it first.

Oh, come on!

With five wolves, is it plausible none of them saw the post before I asked about it the next Day!?

x/d with Legate

[Macalaure]

I still find Brinn worrisome, but:
If she’s a wolf, then the wolves thought Rikae was the seer. If they didn’t think so, it would be a terribly incriminating pick, even if Rikae gave them hunter/ranger vibes - hunter and ranger are typically not super effective early in the game, so you could safely leave Rikae for later and kill somebody else. The thing is, the way Rikae raised her suspicion on Brinn did not have a seerish vibe to me.
If Brinn is not a wolf this leaves a greater variety of possible reasons. The wolves’ prime target is the seer, but what do they do if they don’t see one yet? You can’t seer hunt on flimsy hunches: it’s pretty bad for a pack if every night’s kill has the same subset of suspects and it's them. If you’re clueless about the seer, offing someone who might be ranger or hunter, or who would likely be the most innocent-looking person the next day, or whose death will frame innocents - or ideally a combination or all of the above - is a sensible course.
This gives me enough reason to leave Brinniel be for now.

Originally Posted by THE Ka

Going back and looking over Rikae’s ‘bait-post’, this was especially insightful. Rikae speculates from Mac’s tone and approach that they’re either just happy to be playing again, or the quote given above. If you looked at some of Mac’s earlier posts on face value alone (for lie detecting in WW we don’t have the benefit of ‘face’ language), they’re using contractions, there is very little distance from who their subject is in their lists (using names directly, interspersed with memories/gossip, etc.), etc. They perhaps don’t omit everything and have some extraneous details here and there to roleplay a little with others, but when confronted on this, they cooperate with the questioning. It’s fun to be mysterious, to play, but the behavior above isn’t quite the one of someone trying to hide in the corner nor spend all their mental effort meticulously repeating an alibi.
I don’t think I’ve played with Macalaure in WW before, so I really don’t have the benefit of knowing their play style like others do, but I do know enough basics of looking for lying behavior and I’m not really seeing it in these posts. I didn’t see the logic entirely when players were trying to decide to make a Macwagon (another reason is that term alone is making me think of this: and then my mind just wants to make jokes the entire time…) the first Day.

One gets used to having their posts analyzed in werewolf, but this level of analysis makes me very nervous and uncomfortable. If you’re using your powers for evil, we’re all doomed.

Also, you’re right, we’ve both played tons of games, but we’ve never been in the same one together!


Also, to those who say “the wolves don’t pick their kill just to frame someone” - who says just?

Originally Posted by Greenie

(especially since, as we’ve seen, this particular one apparently can “frame” either Brinn or Mac, depending on which one you ask)

If we’re both innocent, then.. both?? Wolves analyze who their kill will make look bad before they sign off on it! This dismissive tone is bothering me.

Originally Posted by Greenie

Conclusions? I’d be very surprised if both Mac and Brinn are innocent.

Self-fulfilling prophecy maybe, but this is exactly how I’d expect a Green wolf to act if framing me and/or Brinn is part of their plan. Dismiss framing concerns, raise suspicion, and close with a noncommittal “one of them is a wolf”.

Originally Posted by Legate

Also, the "fake votes" debate was already going on by itself at that point, G55 was free to light another fire. The more, the merrier.

She may have started setting fires left and right, but in the end, she brought out the napalm.

Originally Posted by Legate

Framing or not framing you she would leave for you to sort out

Oh, I don’t think Gala was trying to frame me. I think she felt I was a wolf and tried to buddy up to the pack. I have no proof, but I see a coherent possibility that the wolves are trying to use that as part of their plan.

Originally Posted by Lommy

So why is he so fixated on that?

Not because of what Rikae said, but because Gala’s entire attack rested on it.

Originally Posted by Lommy

I'm unwilling to go very meta on this

Yet you do go very meta on it. I could make a meta case against it, but won’t.

I am not fond of either Greenie or Lommy right now. At all.


Been rethinking Kitanna. While I obviously disagree with her case against me, I do feel like Kitanna’s accusations against me are a lot more earnest than Greenie and Lommy’s. Her taunting of Gala right before the deadline is also something only the boldest wolf would dare, I think. I’m gonna leave her and Legate be for now.


I feel the itch to make a suspicion list, but there are a whole number of people I haven’t been able to look at consistently, so I hope I’ll get to it.

[Pitchwife]

Greenie D1:

#74 Discusses the QT, says we shouldn't rely on the Cutie vote. Re Legate's plan: consistency easier for wolves, innocents change their minds based on evidence & arguments. Disagrees with G55 about the usefulness of lists.
#79 We shouldn't focus on chasing the cobbler.
#124 Sums us Hui's and Kath's points about the LPG triangle.
#135 corrects Mac's 'translation' of a post of Hui's about people's suspicion of Mac. Not sure what to make of the Hui/Lommy exchange. Feels better about Legate after him explain the 'dry run'. More interested in reactions to LPG than the trio themselves.
#164 The List (which I need to reread once more)
#178 G55/Rikae: G55 an ordo frustrated for lack of support OR a wolf trying to make a big case
#189 Kitanna not edgy like some have said; quick to low level suspect people (G55/Rikae wolf-on-wolf, Pitch opportunistic wolf?), but more like an ordo stirring the pot, voicing bad vibes; leaning more innocent than not
#206/238 ad Mac re his suspicion of Brinn (which seems 'awfully convenient to her'): Brinn looks sketchy, but Mac's post abut her (#196) reads 'like a wolf thought process written out'
#243 votes Mac for above reason (not a throwaway vote IMO, not with 10 people still to vote after her and mild suspicion on Mac from several people through the Day)


Comes across as sensible & independent-minded. Nothing wolvish sticking out at me so far. Shasta found her List too Agreeable (TM) in some parts, and I'm going to look at it in this light if I have the time, but over all she seems pretty straightforward to me and engages with people. Leaning innocent.

[Huinesoron]

Originally Posted by Pitchwife

Saw it as I was writing.

Thanks. I was trying to write up a timeline of the whole thing, until I realised it was just a timeline of consecutive posts, wasn't adding anything to my understanding, and by that time Legate and Lottie had already highlighted why it was suspicious anyway.

hS