Tol-in-Gaurhoth CXIV – The Evil Breath of Morgoth in Dor-lómin, game thread

[Thinlómien]

I agree the list "Pitchwife, G55, Macalaure" was a bait, but I don't recall much coming out of it. Furthermore, I can't see it looking as a seer dream by itself as they couldn't have had three dreams by this point and there's nothing to differentiate between the trio.

First "substantial" post #121: voices not particularly convinced suspicion of Gal, Pitch and Mac. Again, no seer vibes.

Vaguely defends Legate. I can kinda see the grounds for Mac's paranoia based on #128 because Rikae seems to be operating with rather "how do I prove my suspicion of Mac is correct?" rather than "is my suspicion of Mac correct?" But it's still pretty far-fetched.

#138 laconically puts Brinn in the spotlight (for saying "I'm still a bit wary of G55 and Pitchwife (less so of the former), however I don't want to get caught in a trap.") which... sounds like an innocent catching a suspicious whiff they later fixated on, but it could of course have been interpreted as a seer finally finding a legit reason for voicing suspicion for their wolfy dream.

#148 it continues:

Originally Posted by Rikae

Anyway, right now my fake vote would go to:

++Brinniel

For immediately repeating 2 of 3 names from my list as suspicions, and then backtracking explicitly to avoid getting caught in a trap right after I explained to G55 that my post was intended as a wolf trap. That was ostensibly a reply to Mac saying the group was mostly innocent, but the coincidence is just too much for me to ignore.

I know, these are the kinds of things a wolf would definitely make sure not to do, right? Right. So much so, it could be used as cover. And an innocent doing them coincidentally? That feels like a bigger stretch to me.

Mac is sort of out of Rikae's main suspects by now. He was really like a side note on Rikae's suspicions. So why is he so fixated on that?

Rikae's real suspicions seemed to be divided between Gal and Brinn. And I don't think the Brinn suspicion looks very seerish; on the contrary, it builds up based on the events on the game thread.

Thoughts?

Based on this, I'd say Mac looks much worse than Brinn. If Brinn is a wolf, I very much doubt Rikae looked the most seerish of all the villagers (remember there are four more wolves who could have had seerish accusations against them).

If Brinn is innocent, then I think Boro might look more innocent too (for his weird presumption that she's guilty, would a wolf think that way?) and Lottie looks worse (as has been pointed out, she sounded like she knew Brinn was innocent).

While Mac's conviction of it looking like Rikae-seer dreamt of him looks very paranoid wolfy. I'm unwilling to go very meta on this, but it all makes even more sense to me with Rikae/Mac being a RL couple and with them having been unhappy being on different sides in ww before. It's not a reason enough alone to incriminate Mac, but I think wolf!Mac would like to kill innocent!Rikae early on even if they didn't look particularly gifted. Of course, there would probably have to be other reasons for picking Rikae to convince his packmates it's the best choice.

Also? I think Rikae's death makes Legate look a little more innocent. He was the only one they consistently talked of as an innocent (including mild defense of him) and that alone might have been enough to ping the wolves' seer radar if neither Brinn nor Mac is a wolf.

I still would kinda like to lynch Brinn because her role would shed light on others' but I'm leaning towards lynching Mac as the best option toDay.


edit: xed with Legate and Hui and no time to read or reply right now

[Huinesoron]

Originally Posted by Thinlómien

I still would kinda like to lynch Brinn because her role would shed light on others' but I'm leaning towards lynching Mac as the best option toDay.

I would concur that Mac has been the most obviously suspicious toDay, but I also remember I thought he seemed innocent yesterDay. Will have to check why that was.

Okay, looks like I said it in #93, that the suspicion of him seemed unsupported. But... that suspicion mostly came from Rikae (innocent) and Legate (I lean innocent). So I'm going to try and put that aside.

In which case, his taking my "I still think he looks innocent, why are you saying otherwise?" in #115 and trying to turn it into an implication that I thought he was guilty is looking at least slightly suspect. I can see the shape of his argument - but like his "the wolves thought G55 thought Rikae thought" thing, it's got a spirally feeling to it that could be a wolf just stringing things together to make something stick.

hS

[Lalaith]

If a wolf was defending themselves, they’d of made a script or perhaps several to accommodate for this. You could ask a wolf trying to hide to explain themselves and you’ll get a lot of words, very direct, but not entirely what you asked. Another is the ‘duping delight’ of WW, usually the confident little glimmer in responses ‘you can ask/vote however you want’ or ‘it’s whatever you make of it’, which puts the blame of ‘mean interrogator’ on who’s pressing for an explanation.

This was The Ka..
I don't agree. A wolf does this, a wolf does that...as all of us who have done this before will know, a wolf can do all kinds of things and there are lots of different wolf styles.

YesterDay I said I thought wolves might pick fights with each other. I also think that with five wolves they could afford to throw one of their number under a bus if the mood took them. I've seen them do that, too.
One thing all wolves do have in common however is superior knowledge. A wolf knows enough to be able to judge their voting well, look good and not draw attention to themselves, particularly in the day 1 voting when no-one else knows anything much. And they will also be able to subsequently pick on hapless ordos for 'odd' voting, bandwaggoning etc.
I speak from bitter experience here btw, in the last WW I played, I was stitched up like a kipper by the wolves who framed me for some apparently suspicious Day 1 voting.
From all of this I am less inclined to suspect Eonwe, incidently.

[Lalaith]

Lalaith - no vote

Lal, in the interests of the fact that the Day could have ended really differently, who would you have voted for there? I know it's with hindsight, but would still be interesting!

This from Kath.
Good - and fair - question! It would have depended on the time I arrived. If I had arrived just before deadline, as opposed to just after , I would have done exactly what Sally did, panicked and tried to save "the Ranger".
An earlier, more measured vote? - As previously stated, Legate and Boro were the ones worrying/scaring me yesterDay so probably one of them. Whereupon I would probably have been accused of spreading the vote in a suspicious way

Generally I am better at spotting innocents than wolves so votes are always a trial to me!

[Inziladun]

Originally Posted by Boromir88

Rikae does love traps. Rikae was pretty clear yesterday in that they did intentionally set a trap and suspected Brinn fell into it. Turns out Rikae had no special knowledge, but trying to put myself back into Day 1, the wolves wouldn't have known Rikae was an ordo. Brinnwolf fell into Rikae's trap and overall with Rikae's posting yesterday felt Rikae was a gifted, or in the least Rikae was going to be an assumed innocent.

I didn't see the "trap" at the time. Players of both alignments throw out things like "A., B., and C. look the worst right now".
I don't see Rikae being an "assumed innocent" had they still been here. At least not to me.

Originally Posted by Kath

As to why Rikae for the Night kill, I would assume the wolves were gunning for someone they thought might be the Seer. It would seem foolish for them not to always be aiming for a Gifted. Trying to set up frame jobs is all well and good in theory but their aim surely has to be to get rid of the greatest danger towards them.

That still seems the most likely reason to me.

Originally Posted by Kath

-> G55 3

Same issue - this was cross posted. So Inzil didn't know Kit had made it 3 for Pitch at the time he made it 3 for G55. So really, this is the vote that technically first took someone into the lead for the lynch.


I'd like to know what he now thinks this says about Legate and Pitch, especially in relation to knowing Rikae's role now.

I'm not sure about Legate. Pitch looks rather opportunistic if Brinn is innocent.

[Boromir88]

Originally Posted by Brinniel

If you're gonna stick with that, then you're wasting your Day. I see a lot of theories from you on who is suspicious based on the assumption that I'm wolf, but I am not aware of the reason why you suspect I am one in the first place.

My reasons were stated:

I should have started the day with this, but just to put it out here now, My predominant suspicion coming into the day is Brinn's a wolf. If the DL was NOW, I'd vote Brinn. Based on the voting yesterday and Rikae's death.

After you had acquired 2 votes (Rikae and Pitch) there was a spring of a handful of people saying they didn't want a bandwagon lynch of you.
Rikae Post 245

So, just putting this here because I think this could be important later. This Brinn-wagon everyone's talking about is two votes at this point, mine and Pitch's.

And the people who expressed concern about it are Huey, Lottie and Inzil, in that order (let me know if I missed someone).

Now, I found Pitch suspicious from the beginning, although just for vibes really, and Brinn could have started looking like a convenient vote. On the other hand, three people pushing back on a wagon for coming out of nowhere after two reasoned votes (by day 1 standards) is odd, too, especially if Brinn turns out wolfish or the trolley is redirected toward an innocent. Lottie's and Inzil's positions in the anti-Brinnwagon-wagon are, that is - Huey's is pretty bold.

And as far as Rikae's death, I meant the clear trap. To kill 2 wolves with 1 arrow...is that right? Wait, 2 birds with 1 stone...

Originally Posted by Legate of Amon Lanc

What makes you think it was "clear" that Rikae "set a trap"? Feel like I am missing something that you (and Mac??) consider obvious.

Rikae #148.

For immediately repeating 2 of 3 names from my list as suspicions, and then backtracking explicitly to avoid getting caught in a trap right after I explained to G55 that my post was intended as a wolf trap. That was ostensibly a reply to Mac saying the group was mostly innocent, but the coincidence is just too much for me to ignore.

Onto some matters today. Brinn my suspicions today really aren't based on anything you said or did yesterday. Your vote is "neutral" in it can't determine wolf or not. In the light of yesterday's posts, your Day 1 attitude of "not being bothered by random Day 1 suspicion" felt innocent. That was yesterday. It's a new day and with more information on the 2 deaths, people start looking different, you being one of them.

Scenario 1. The wolves thought Rikae was gifted. But if they though them the seer, then they know that they didn't dream of me. Really, people. Are some of you really suggesting that a wolf-version of me would be dumb enough to go after Rikae because I thought they were the seer? I don't know if any wolves would be so jumpy this early in the game. In a village of 20+, it would be very lucky indeed if the seer dreamt of a wolf on Night 1.~Brinn

That looks suspicious. I rarely get a good feeling about "do you really think I'd be that dumb as a wolf." There's a variety of different styles and strategies that work. If Rikae was the seer, it wouldn't have been dumb at all for wolf-you to kill them. That fact that Rikae did not turn out to be the seer, doesn't mean you were dumb for targeting them, just means you were unsuccessful in finding the real seer.

Originally Posted by Legate of Amon Lanc

Indeed. Can you explain that, Boro?

Yeah, I'm afraid I can't beyond having an intense headache that I left yesterday with and still have right now.

It's generally accepted I was weird as hell yesterday. Primarily because I do enjoy Day 1 discussion. I hate the voting, but I enjoy the banter and activity. You might say I like to "survey the landscape," do more observing of what people are saying/doing, but letting people do it and sort of watching how they play out. There was LGP fake voting, few folks talking about the QT, Mac getting buttered up. People think it's non-committal wolvery ok, but instead of immediately jumping on and drawing attention to every plot I see. I give it time to play out until solid evidence comes in.

What do I know now, that I didn't know then, in all the discussion yesterday.

G55. Cobbler. The fake voting stuff at the start looks like complete cobbler distraction. The 2 others heavily involved in that discussion (Legate and Pitch) I don't see a reason to suspect wolvery of on the basis of the fake-voting conversation.

My point on Rikae:

Rikae - a wild card. I have trouble pinpointing/figuring out whether what she's trying to accomplish is good or evil. But regardless of role, strives to accomplish something.

I know they will always be trying something, but I see little benefit in pointing out what someone's attempting until knowing more. What do I know now...Rikae's innocent. Night killed. Set an intentional trap. Maybe it caught an innocent, ok possible. But there's no reason to think Rikae had malicious intent. And there's no reason to believe Rikae was lying about it.

It would be foolish to just let that disappear/forget about.

But perhaps Boro or Mac has been reading them more carefully overNight. ~Lommy

That's plain evil looking. Of course I read people's post overnight. How else is anyone able to keep track of hundreds of posts while the day is ongoing and more posts being added to it? I have to read a lot of it in the night phase. Maybe I've underestimated your cunning ability to argue with yourself and look innocent. That's a bad comment.

I'm going to be gone quite a while, will make it back around 3 hours before dl.

Edit: crossed posts and forgot to attribute my last quote to Lommy. Corrected

[Kitanna]

Mac
Post #52: Jumps almost immediately into the fake vote debate. He takes it to mean no real votes, believing the wolves can throw votes wherever with no real consequence. He also brings up the tighter schedule for a lot of people in having two DLs. Casts suspicion on Legate naming him cobblerish. Doesn't think a wolf would stick their head out that far.
Post#97: He got a lot of mentions after his original post. Including some "fishy" feelings from Legate and Rikae misquoted him as suggesting Legate was infected, when he had said cobblerish. Agrees with Huin that Pitch was pinning no vote/fake vote on Legate. Notes Legate started going after those who cast suspicion on him. After this second post Lhuna called him scary and Mac was talked about quite frequently.
Post#111: Sees where Pitch is coming from in regards to a post where Pitch pings him. Subtly accuses me of wolfy behavior for saying in LGP there's probably a wolf, but then goes on to say he's also guilty of contributing. As were others who engaged in that conversation. I think he noted me because I said I suspected a wolf outright whereas most everyone else was saying "it's odd, it's fishy, etc."
Post#132: Makes a case for why a bold wolf might stick their neck out based on a comment from Boro

Originally Posted by Mac

I highly doubt the pack would come out in force and steer the wheel only to keep one packmember from fenrisizing themselves. Chances are that one of them will bite the dust at some point, and then people will look at their old posts. Such Day1 behavior can sink the wolfship on a later day.

Then says this

This is what I mean. I can feel a race between Pitch, G55, and Legate coming up, while the wolves are snickering in the background.
I'm not even saying that there isn't a wolf among them - it's possible - but I don't like the way this is gaining momentum.

I don't think the distancing of himself from the whole thing. He was amongst those casting doubts in the direction of LGP and yet, despite his own involvement, finds me wolfy for it. Then continues to bring it up, but pulls a Han Solo "I have a bad feeling about this." I saw a few posts when skimming Day 1 about him being scary, I didn't get it at the time, but I do now.
Post#166: Comments on Rikae/G55 Questions G55 on why she thinks Rikae sidestepped questions. Fake votes self.
Post#196:

Legate seems fairly fine, actually. Pitch still seems tense to me, but that alone is not enough. The way Gala went all out after Rikae makes me think she's innocent. Rikae's response doesn't point in either direction, so I don't have anything there either. Inzil is suspiciously unsuspicious (for his standards). Huin seems reasonable. Boro plays with the pressure-less cheer of an ordo. I feel fairly good about Greenie and THE Ka. Many people are quiet. I don't have any opinion on a whole bunch yet.

Casts some light suspicions on Brinn but it's in a very non-commital "well innocents do this too" kind of way. But does quote her later calling her words very wolfy.
Post#218: Comments on some susicpion throw his way from Greenie over his aforementioned Brinn comments.
Post#259: Votes Brinn
toDay-
Post#303: Believes G55 believed Rikae to be innocent, believing maybe the former believed the latter was gifted.

Now Rikae is dead. Did the wolves follow Gala’s judgement and thought them gifted? I don't see it, unless maaybe if Brinn is indeed a wolf and the way Rikae suspected her set them off. Not gonna put too many eggs into that basket, though.

Why Rikae then, just because after yesterDay they'd look the most innocent of all toDay and thus least likely to be lynched? Possibly, but if so, our wolf pack is boring.

Unless... I'm being framed. By the exact thinking above, a mewolf would have reason to think Rikae really is the seer. If the wolves are preparing my head for the chopping block, I have to raise my eyebrow at those who suddenly suspected me near the deadline, since this would very much play into their hands/paws. *coughgreeniecough*

*raises on eyebrow* I don't love how he continually brings up himself as mewolf and crafts a conspiracy theory around wolves setting him up.

This would look perfect if Kitanna and Legate are wolves together. She’s suspicious of him and defending him at the same time. It’s easy to say that there’s a wolf in that group if you know that there is. Note how in conclusion, she finds Gala and Pitch more suspicious than Legate. Can't suspect a fellow wolf too much.

Except when I suspected Legate more later on. One could make the same argument for Mac. He jumped in on LGP throwing suspicion on the G&P, same as me.
Also says Legate did the same by suspecting me and backing away. I truly believe Legate would have voted for me if he didn't see it as a throwaway and could convince a few more people to hop on the wagon. Mac's comments actually make me think better of Legate. Mac is working hard to throw us together, while completely downplaying his own involvement in the Day 1 debate over LGP.
Post#305:

=Mac]

Except wolves know all day that they have to make up the reasoning for a vote for an innocent and can plan for it accordingly.

This whole debate gives me a headache. I'm not even sure what to say.
Post#331: Breaks down the fake/no votes. Says G55 sided with him, though in reading the quoted texts, I'm not sure sided is the right word, at least not siding with Mac. It seemed more like G55 was trying to get more people on her side about Rikae and since Mac was the only one catching what she was throwing. I'd say it was more G55 tried to convince others Mac sided with her and not the other way around.
Again brings up maybe G55 thought Rikae was gifted. Circles back to "maybe seer-Rikae" dreamt me"

Maybe she got hunter or ranger vibes from something, possible, but:
- it’s not unreasonable that seer-Rikae would pick me as their first dream.
- if you’re the seer and you know a wolf, what do you do? Keep quiet? Drop hints? Go all out and accuse? Try to subtly steer the village into lynching that wolf?
The way Rikae suspected me could fit the latter. Gala tried to associate herself with me several times, which makes me suspect that Gala thought so as well, a cobbler trying to reach out to who she thought was a wolf.

All of this was already on my mind during the Night and now Rikae is dead. Obviously, it’s a bit of a stretch for me to assume the wolves saw everything the same way. But here’s the thing - I got some fire late yesterDay from Greenie and a few. With a bit of a push, that case could gain momentum and get me lynched toDay - and an innocent lynched is a wolf not lynched.

Tinfoil hats only, please.

Mac seems to be working overtime to get the "they thought Rikae was the seer and wanted to frame me" off the ground. I do not like it. It's possible to say the wolves looked for someone to frame up and that's why Rikae was chosen, but I think the more likely explanation is they thought in light of G55 dying a cobbler, Rikae would potentially be assumed innocent. A lot of people were leaning that way by end of Day. Mac's continued assertion it was a frame up makes me uneasy, but I find his behavior Day 1 more suspicious. Mac brought up LGP multiple times, casting suspicions to GP and finding Legate more innocent. But then backs off sharply to accuse me of the same behavior. Then votes Brinn because he didn't like the traction LGP was getting. It wasn't that the vote for Brinn didn't come with a decent argument, it was it looked so obviously like he didn't want to tangle himself in an LGP bandwagon. Looking at the voting table, when he voted G55 was ahead and his vote tied Brinn though it wouldn't have mattered since first vote of a tie dies. I'm not sure how cross-posted his vote was though. He may not have known that his would tie up votes.

I feel like I'm never going to catch up and analyzing everyone is not possible, though I had hoped it would be. Looking at those I have read through, I'd say Eonwe and Mac are the most suspicious to me right now.
Eonwe: His vote was really what gets me. It just looked like a classic vote to keep his hands clean. I want to keep a close eye on him for it.
Mac: His tinfoil hatting and backing so sharply from LGP worries me.

[Urwen]

I think you missed one of my posts.

[Huinesoron]

Originally Posted by Boro

Brinn my suspicions today really aren't based on anything you said or did yesterday. Your vote is "neutral" in it can't determine wolf or not.

Originally Posted by Boro, same post

Rikae's innocent. Night killed. Set an intentional trap. Maybe it caught an innocent, ok possible. But there's no reason to think Rikae had malicious intent. And there's no reason to believe Rikae was lying about it.

I find 'It's nothing you did yesterDay, it's just that you fell into a trap yesterDay' quite suspicious.

Originally Posted by Kitanna

I'd say Eonwe and Mac are the most suspicious to me right now.
Eonwe: His vote was really what gets me. It just looked like a classic vote to keep his hands clean. I want to keep a close eye on him for it.

I can see finding a quiet person with a throwaway vote suspicious, but "most suspicous" sounds a little strong. Is there really nobody in the village you find more suspicious for what they've said, besides Mac?

Urwen - welcome to the game.

hS

[Kitanna]

Originally Posted by Huin

I can see finding a quiet person with a throwaway vote suspicious, but "most suspicous" sounds a little strong. Is there really nobody in the village you find more suspicious for what they've said, besides Mac?

Since I haven't finished looking in-depth at everyone, no. These are the two I've formed a strong opinion on. Sorry you don't approve of my method for a reread.

[Boromir88]

Originally Posted by Huinesoron

I find 'It's nothing you did yesterDay, it's just that you fell into a trap yesterDay' quite suspicious

hS

Sneaking on for a quick comment addressing this...
“In the light of yesterday”...yesterday did not know Rikae’s role. Did not know their guilt or innocent, so could have been a nefarious trap set by a wolf. Now I know it was an innocent trap set for a wolf. Possible it snagged an innocent Brinn? Ok, but I prefer not to argue with myself.

[Pitchwife]

Urwen, since you're apparently here, is there anybody you suspect?

Originally Posted by Huinesoron

I find 'It's nothing you did yesterDay, it's just that you fell into a trap yesterDay' quite suspicious.

See, and this is again the same kind of distorting abbreviation I called you out on before, and it's starting to make me uneasy, whether it's about me or Boro or whosoever. [If it's nothing she did yesterDay, then it's probably something she did toDay, right?] It may be just hasty reading on your part, or it may be a method. *ping*

Macs paranoia about being framed toDay reminds me of his overreaction to Hui yesterDay (when Hui was actually semi-defending him) AND what he said about himself being nervous if a wolf.

Originally Posted by Lhuna quoting Zil quoting Kit

Ditto. I'm kind of wondering how she's still alive. My reasoning goes round in circles but hovers more over somewhere unsettling.

I third this. [Zil, my eyebrow raised at you earlier was me doubting you should have drawn attention to it, but it's out in the open now anyway.] It would have been very bold of a wolf to react this way to a gifted reveal, but it would have been very bold of an innocent too.