Tol-in-Gaurhoth CXIV – The Evil Breath of Morgoth in Dor-lómin, game thread

[Inziladun]

Originally Posted by Urwen

I think I am gonna take a page out of Pervinca's book and 'disappear'.

Are you going to speak plainly, or stay in "cryptic mode" indefinitely?

x/d with Lhuna

[Shastanis Althreduin]

I think perhaps Kitanna is my best read at the moment. I had fundamentally the same reaction to G55's eleventh-hour Ranger claim as she did.

[Kitanna]

There is so much to unpack. I'm not even sure how I want to begin.
There's a lot of fairly vocal people I barely had a chance to look at yesterday. And yet, at the same time there's those flying under the radar who I haven't spared a second thought for. Well, I'm here and catching up on end of Day shenanigans and everything going on today now that G55 and Rikae have shed their mortal coils.

[Eönwë]

Maybe I'm just paranoid and seeing possible wolf-groups everywhere, but after their coordinated votes yesterDay and this post:

Originally Posted by Shastanis Althreduin

I think perhaps Kitanna is my best read at the moment. I had fundamentally the same reaction to G55's eleventh-hour Ranger claim as she did.

I can't help wondering if Shasta and Kitanna aren't an Infector duo being too obvious and just messing with us (though whether this would make Brinn more likely to be an Infector or someone they're trying to frame is up in the air).

[A Little Green]

Originally Posted by Lottie

That was some Day 1! I'm glad now that we weren't able to swing the vote, but I do think it's worth looking at those late votes. I know Shasta guessed that G55 was a cobbler, and Infectors might've guessed too, but they didn't know either, and I'm sure they wouldn't have rushed to save someone who claimed to be the Ranger if they had any plausible deniability...

Not sure I agree with this – not rushing to save a self-proclaimed Ranger if you have the chance would be next to suicidal for a wolf. For the same reason, I don’t really follow Boro’s reasoning here –

Originally Posted by Boro

sally's vote strikes me as a little suspect. In the spur of the moment with such little time, I think everyone would have to accept G55's ranger claim. But if Brinn's not a wolf, sally's vote is the most suspicious.

I don’t think we can read anything into Sally’s vote one way or another. She voted to save a self-proclaimed Gifted a few minutes before DL, which to me doesn’t say anything about her alignment - regardless of what Brinn is.

Originally Posted by Mac

(This is in response to a point of mine against Huin.) Me neither, necessarily. But it’s a plausible wolf tactic to say someone looks innocent while at the same time inviting others to make their case for guilt.

Ah, got it now. That’s fair enough.

Originally Posted by Lottie

I think it's very interesting that Legate really didn't seem interested at all in the G55-Pitch options at the deadline yesterDay. In his last post before voting, he throws out Brinn, Kit, and Greenie as options, and then votes the only viable candidate there, but doesn't really talk about the other choices at all. It's not a huge thing, but it does kind of ping my radar as something a wolf might do if he wants to steer the vote a little bit, but doesn't want to look suspicious and isn't as invested as he would be if a wolf were actually in danger.

Not sure if this is valid – as I recall, Legate had previously stated that he didn’t suspect G55 or Pitch, so him not finding them interesting as potential lynchees doesn’t strike me as particularly suspicious.

Originally Posted by Mac

PS: Huin... I now have Cobbler55 stuck in my head to the tune of Mambo No.5. Why did you do this to me??

Nooooooooooooooo!

Originally Posted by Boro

Agreed it's a terribly bad throw away vote sure.

But had I been able to and not already voted, when I read Steve's vote I thought I would be very tempted to do the same thing. I thought Urwen's vote was unsporty and even though G55 turned out cobbler, I had same exact reaction as Steve's. Looked like Urwen had no interest in being helpful.

If G55 turned out Ranger, I would be feeling a lot different about Steve's throw away.

Why? I’m a little uneasy about Eonwe’s vote too as he’s been very cautious in general and that vote was, as Lommy and Lottie have pointed out, an easy way to keep his hands clean. But whether G55 was the cobbler or the ranger shouldn’t really impact an assessment of Eonwe because an Eonwolf wouldn’t know what she was, aside from “not wolf”.

Both Eonwe and Lalaith speculate on whether G55 thought Brinn was a wolf or not. Personally I don’t think this matters one way or another as the cobbler doesn’t have any more knowledge about anyone’s roles than an ordo would.

Originally Posted by Brinn

Lottie is what I call a helpful player, which doesn't point either way alone. However, her suspicions of Pitch/G55 stayed pretty consistent throughout the Day so I don't find her vote suspicious. And her reasoning for the wolves to join the bandwagon to vote me is something I agree with. I think I recall being fooled by Lottie, so I'll remain cautious, but right now I'm leaning innocent.

Hm. I’m not sure how consistent equals innocent.

Originally Posted by Kitanna

Questions Steve's votes. Guys, it's been a long time, but who the frack is Steve in all this? Eonwe? Or is there a Steve I can't see posts from?!

Steve = Eonwe. Don’t ask.

I’ll be back trying to unpick some of the Rikae-Brinn-Mac tangle next.

[THE Ka]

Firstly, this is going to be a wall of text. Secondly, since I had a little more time than Day 1, I wanted to go back and examine the events around Rikae’s infamous ‘wolf-bait’, sans G55 argument.

Originally Posted by Rikae Post #69: The ‘bait-post’

Well, it's good to see that Lommy and G55 have come to the conclusion that we need to try lynch a wolf, er, quarantine an infected. And G55 and Legate have agreed we should cast fake votes.

And G55 and Lommy have decided that Legate is a cobbler, and Inzil and Mac have suggested he's infected?

Seriously, it's interesting how the fake votes discussion evolved, seemingly from a couple of throwaway comments to a serious suggestion. Normally it would be totally pointless, but there is some sense in it as a way to prevent people from lurking and waiting to bandwagon on the QT vote. However, I don't think it's practical, and probably won't be necessary, as "lurk and wait for the QT vote" would become suspicious behavior very quickly anyway.

When it comes to single top suspects vs lists, both have their pros and cons and leave material to analyze later on. Me, I like lists. Here's one, just to get the ball rolling:

Pitchwife
G55
Macalaure

Mac –

Originally Posted by Rikae Post #121

I don't know. He does love playing as a wolf, but I think he also enjoys looking sinister as an innocent.

Going back and looking over Rikae’s ‘bait-post’, this was especially insightful. Rikae speculates from Mac’s tone and approach that they’re either just happy to be playing again, or the quote given above. If you looked at some of Mac’s earlier posts on face value alone (for lie detecting in WW we don’t have the benefit of ‘face’ language), they’re using contractions, there is very little distance from who their subject is in their lists (using names directly, interspersed with memories/gossip, etc.), etc. They perhaps don’t omit everything and have some extraneous details here and there to roleplay a little with others, but when confronted on this, they cooperate with the questioning. It’s fun to be mysterious, to play, but the behavior above isn’t quite the one of someone trying to hide in the corner nor spend all their mental effort meticulously repeating an alibi.
I don’t think I’ve played with Macalaure in WW before, so I really don’t have the benefit of knowing their play style like others do, but I do know enough basics of looking for lying behavior and I’m not really seeing it in these posts. I didn’t see the logic entirely when players were trying to decide to make a Macwagon (another reason is that term alone is making me think of this: and then my mind just wants to make jokes the entire time…) the first Day.

G55 – Welp, not much to say here since their role was revealed to us yesterDay and we’ve spent most of that time discussing them. Instead, I’d rather spend time looking at who they were casually sniffing around after their debate with Rikae. It’s obvious now that the fake-vote idea was their bait for both villagers and wolves to see not really who, but how players would react and who was going to react the most.

Legate, of course, whom G55 later tried to pin the idea on, showed the most genuine interest in the idea and in usual fashion (not really blaming, I did the same with my curiosity over QT because it was new/exciting/untested), began to work further from the groundwork G55 laid out and tried to figure out why. Here I do have the benefit of having played with Legate before a few times and the fact that he is willing to answer confrontations about his sudden interest speaks genuinely to his past playing behavior. Granted, its been years since we’ve both had a chance to play a game together so he may have changed a few of his habits, but this one isn’t odd for his usual neck-out and stream-of-consciousness extrapolations.

Pitch – This one… I’ve been trying to read for awhile now. I’ve even agreed with them on occasion when they’ve given small isolated replies. Now to see how they interacted with Rikae and what it shows.

Post #98 – Not directly to Rikae, but addresses questions from when they were out. Defends why they pressured Legate over the interest in the fake-vote idea. Asks why all the worry over waiting for the QT vote – it could be just as flawed as the GT result that Day.

Post #100 – Confronts Mac, why did you find my pin on Legate odd when you just said so yourself.

Post #107 – Confronts G55 on twisting words over debate about QT vote. Mention of my question to Legate and confusion over fake-votes/no-votes vs regular deadline.
(To Pitch: I saw your question and re-read my earlier post. I meant ‘bunk’ as in slang for ‘worthless’/’knock-off’/’obvious lie’. Not the other ‘bunk’…har, har)

Post(s) #114,118: Analysis on multiple players. #118 mention of Rikae: Seems usual self.

Post #120 – Reply to Hui:

I don't think I've seen that many people suspecting Mac to a significant amount (Rikae, of course, myself a bit, who else?), more like saying he's creepy & scary no matter what. Anyway, it's always good for a wolf pack not to get all entangled in the same skirmish but spread themselves out in several combat zones, so to speak.

…
This response I found the far more reasonable so far. Co-conspirators typically don’t exclusively interact with one another, especially when they’re trying to tell ‘the tale’ and collaborate, because they’re usually too busy trying to put what they rehearsed before into use and for safety. They’re not going to expend the effort to elaborate each other’s stories (because, surprise, one might’ve had to change theirs to fit the situation and now they’re out of sync). Two truthful people asked a question about an event are going to naturally reconstruct what they shared together and have no difficulty being interactive.
…

Post #163: Echoes some of the other’s suspicions on a possible wolf between Rikae, Brinn, Kit, and Lottie.

G55 is all over the place, fairly confrontational, sometimes eyebrow-raising (about Urwen/Maeglin: really? ). Her all-out attack on Rikae just now does sound a lot like passionate innocent though and makes me feel better about her.
Paradoxically, so does Rikae's response so far.

…
Makes a line up and then eliminates one along with their main confrontation. Though in the context this presents a reasonable choice (plenty of others acted or said the same about G55/Rikae debate). Could have included Rikae in the list anyways as a demonstration that they were involved with the other three, but while Brinn and Lottie were hovering around the G55/Rikae debate, Kit was not directly in it. Kit was however connected to the G-L-P by being it’s main arbiter when it came to trying to find a possible wolf between the three.

My main question is, unless I’m just tired and missing it, why Kit in this specific grouping?
….

Post #171: Confronts Brinn on casually suspecting Kit for pushing for wolves in G-L-P. Brings up they only did so after Mac.
(Rikae by this point previously had already voted for Brinn).

Post #174: Responds to Rune, admits that they are flip flopping on suspicion on G55 again. Notes suspicion on Eonwe’s heightened agreeableness.

Post #210: Vote post. Votes for Brinn with reasoning:

Picked suspects from Rikae's shortlist, then backed off when attention turned away from the LPG triangle, and when she got suspected for this she tried to shift the suspicion to Kitanna, who had been more or less in the same camp.

Question I’m wondering, is why didn’t Pitch go with Kit given the previous amount of information and continued suspicion they had on their sudden hunt for wolves among them, Legate, and G55? They admit their uncertainty on G55 previously and Rikae’s possible innocence, but then go with Rikae’s list of fellow accused, swap out Mac, and then include Brinn (why not Lottie as well?).

Onto another note:

Post #305 -

Originally Posted by Macalaure

Except wolves know all day that they have to make up the reasoning for a vote for an innocent and can plan for it accordingly.

That’s to be expected and wolves would definitely know that themselves… and then act in contrast. Similar to when you’re examining someone on an event, the liar needs to make a story of what they did and why for protection, but at the same time they’re watching you very closely because they don’t know what facts you have about them.

There’s also the fact that wolves don’t know who the cobbler is on Day 1 any more than every other role. Once the cobbler starts disrupting though, the wolves are going to study it closely. Not for the cobbler, but who is on the sidelines with whoever the cobbler is arguing with. When they see an opinion of the situation start to form from the spectators, they have to adapt their plan and story rather quickly. If a wolf can’t do so, they need a temporary shelter until they can write their reasoning up why. If this is before a bandwagon forms, they’re quickly joining either side of a good ol’ fashioned cobbler debate and when asked about it later, feign the same fears as a villager, ‘oh, they were just so adamant and I didn’t know if either was correct, but I didn’t want to be singled out for doing nothing so I panicked and said enough to contribute.’ This can later be used as a convincing means of why they might back-peddle, saying they have more evidence now that they’re not under attack, etc.

When pressed later though, if someone is a villager, they’re going to defend themselves. It might not even be the exact same way they told you the first time, but the difference is they’ll be more eager to tell you to clear themselves.

When I was suspicious of both Brinn and Loslote of drifting into the shadow of Rikae-G55 debate, Loslote was the one out of the two who began defending themselves. A villager is probably gonna show anxiety on small things like when they replied to you, semantics and word choice, etc. not immediately what you’re accusing them of. At that point, they just want to prove themselves.

If a wolf was defending themselves, they’d of made a script or perhaps several to accommodate for this. You could ask a wolf trying to hide to explain themselves and you’ll get a lot of words, very direct, but not entirely what you asked. Another is the ‘duping delight’ of WW, usually the confident little glimmer in responses ‘you can ask/vote however you want’ or ‘it’s whatever you make of it’, which puts the blame of ‘mean interrogator’ on who’s pressing for an explanation.

We definitely saw this with Rikae to G55, but surprisingly a few times with G55 to a few others they were questioning afterwards.



On that note, it’s past midnight in my time zone and I should have already been in bed, but I wanted to look over who was hovering around Rikae’s list a little more. I’ll be back tomorrow, hopefully early enough to catch up everyone’s posts before I make a vote.

[Kath]

That was a crazy end to Day 1. After talk of fake votes we then end up with a fake reveal! At least the village might be quieter with the Cobbler gone, but I dread to think how many QT posts there will end up being ...

As to why Rikae for the Night kill, I would assume the wolves were gunning for someone they thought might be the Seer. It would seem foolish for them not to always be aiming for a Gifted. Trying to set up frame jobs is all well and good in theory but their aim surely has to be to get rid of the greatest danger towards them.

Just going through yesterDay's votes. Have skimmed toDay but not read properly so sorry if things have already been mentioned/answered.

YesterDay's vote tally - I've put known roles in bold in the votes themselves, otherwise I've bolded as normal when talking about it:
Lhuna -> Lhuna

Rikae -> Brinniel (For immediately repeating 2 of 3 names from my list as suspicions, and then backtracking explicitly to avoid getting caught in a trap right after I explained to G55 that my post was intended as a wolf trap.) ~ Rikae

Originally Posted by Rikae

So, just putting this here because I think this could be important later. This Brinn-wagon everyone's talking about is two votes at this point, mine and Pitch's.

And the people who expressed concern about it are Huey, Lottie and Inzil, in that order (let me know if I missed someone).

Now, I found Pitch suspicious from the beginning, although just for vibes really, and Brinn could have started looking like a convenient vote. On the other hand, three people pushing back on a wagon for coming out of nowhere after two reasoned votes (by day 1 standards) is odd, too, especially if Brinn turns out wolfish or the trolley is redirected toward an innocent. Lottie's and Inzil's positions in the anti-Brinnwagon-wagon are, that is - Huey's is pretty bold.

A lot of Rikae's posts are understandably largely debate with G55, but this one seems to put forward most of their opinions from the Day. They are right about the supposed Brinn-wagon, other Brinn voters don't appear until a while later. Six other votes were cast before THE Ka, Rune, Legate and sally then also vote for Brinn. They mention Inzil and Lottie's votes being suspiciously placed in terms of going against a Brinn-wagon, but actually they were also after Shasta and Kitanna had just made it 3 votes for Pitch as opposed to 2 votes for Brinn, so they had also had the same effect.

G55 -> Rikae

Boro -> Pitchwife

Urwen -> G55

Pitchwife -> Brinniel 2

Kath -> G55 2

Shasta -> Pitchwife 2 (I'm jerking the reins a bit here) ~ Shasta

I'd be interested to know a bit more about this vote, Shasta. This vote created a three way tie at the time between Pitch, G55 and Brinn. It's certainly consistent with his earlier suspicions, I just wonder why Pitch over Brinn at this point, especially with the comment at the point of vote as well.

Originally Posted by Shasta

Of those with votes, I won't vote for Rikae, could vote for Brinn or Pitch, and probably won't be voting for G55 unless it's to save someone I think is innocent.

From here, the cross posting of votes makes things difficult. The next vote I would normally consider more carefully, as it was the first to put anyone up to three votes, but it was cross-posted and it isn't clear with how many previous posts.

Kitanna -> Pitchwife 3

Inzil -> G55 3

Same issue - this was cross posted. So Inzil didn't know Kit had made it 3 for Pitch at the time he made it 3 for G55. So really, this is the vote that technically first took someone into the lead for the lynch.

Originally Posted by Inzil

There's no one else I would want at this point, and it could say a lot about Legate, Pitch, and Rikae.

I'd like to know what he now thinks this says about Legate and Pitch, especially in relation to knowing Rikae's role now.

Lottie -> G55 4

Not a cross posted vote and so knows this vote puts G55 into prime position for the lynch.

Originally Posted by Lottie

I think this lynch gives us the most information going forward, and I would be very surprised if she turns out to be innocent.

She earlier agreed with Kitanna about the G-L-P trio looking wolfy.

Originally Posted by Lottie

I've been going back and forth on who I think looks most wolf-like of those three, too. I tend to be more suspicious of G55 and Pitch at first glance, but I've had a very hard time getting a good feel on Legate.

Originally Posted by Lottie

Pitch brings up one of G55's first posts, which has been commented on before, and throws a bit of suspicion her way. This looks to me like Pitch doesn't want to be tied to G55 or seen as defending her, and it makes me more likely to believe Huin's hypothesis that they might both be wolves.

Gets drawn into the G55/Rikae stuff, and also doesn't like that G55 says Kitanna seems tense. Continues to feel G55 and Pitch may be a wolf pair.

Originally Posted by Lottie

If we were doing the bonus vote, I would definitely be voting for G55 at this point.

Ok, so this all seems very consistent and I would really now like to know what she thinks about Pitch given G55 turned out to be a Cobbler and not a wolf. Also, as I was reading through, both her own posts and posts about her seem to somehow make her and Kitanna a pair, I guess from when she followed on the G-L-P idea from Kitanna.

Greenie -> Macalaure

Cross posted with the previous 4 votes. So at this point, Greenie thought Brinn and G55 had 2, Rikae, Pitch and Lhuna had one. An interesting point at which to throw in a new name. It's for coming up with an argument against Brinn sort of on the spot and then backdating said argument to an earlier post, I think. It's interesting coming after her earlier post:

Originally Posted by Greenie

I still think Brinn looks sketchy, and I agree with Mac's points about her, but at the same time Mac's post about her makes me really uneasy.

So one post from Mac ended up changing her from Brinn (who had 2 votes at this point) to Mac. And actually, she kind of agreed with Mac about Brinn's suspicious post:

Originally Posted by Greenie

Still, this is the fishiest thing I’ve seen so far so definitely merits a reread.

So is the suspicion of Mac because he's almost gone on the same reasoning but his seems contrived opposed to hers? It's a less interesting placement for a new name on the list than it could have been due to the cross posting but still was the only other new name besides Urwen.

THE Ka -> Brinniel 3

Ok, not a cross posted vote so knows G55 is already on 4. She seemed to be debating between Brinn and Lottie.

Originally Posted by THE Ka

Between Brinn and Loslote, Brinn is playing far safer in their submarine by just throwing a ‘I have a hunch’ dart at Zil and following the G55-Rikae debate with mild defense of the Day 1 blues. That’s safe and yes, even villagers could take up that tactic, but this consistently? Hrrm.

Originally Posted by THE Ka

Between the two, only Loslote has when come under fire participated in giving a reason why at least for their support for either side in either debate, while Brinn so far as I’ve caught up, has shied away consistently. It makes me all the more suspicious Brinn is playing it entirely too safe out of the two.

So she had pretty much settled on Brinn as a vote, but it also would have been a strange time to put Lottie into the mix anyway.

Eönwë -> Urwen

I don't like this vote, just as I didn't like Urwen's in the first place. He talks about Zil, Brinn and Lommy all being suspicious, and then plumps for someone totally unrelated. 13 votes had been cast with 8 remaining at this point. No one liked Urwen's vote, but did Eonwe really think this was going somewhere?

Rune -> Brinniel 4

Rune said this was cross posted with everyone from 244. I would like to know if that includes 244 because that was Kit's vote for Brinn. Is Rune pushing up Brinn to tie with G55 here or did he not know that?

Lommy -> G55 5

No cross voting so knew she was putting G55 into the lead and adds the comment:

Originally Posted by Lommy

Let's make this more interesting then

Which is indeed interesting ... I would very much like to know what she was thinking with this.

Hui -> G55 6

Hui clearly stated he wanted to avoid Brinn getting lynched and so chose G55 because she had the higher vote tally. It's a bold statement to make at a point where no roles were known. What made him think Brinn was definitely worth saving?

Legate -> Brinniel 5

Out of the options, which by now are realistically Brinn, G55, Pitch - definitely Brinn. Earlier thought Pitch might be Cobbler and thought G55 was playing in her usual style. Kitanna would have been his fake vote. By the time it got to real voting, this would have been a real throwaway so not going with it does make sense. Brinn is the highest up in his suspicions list so this vote does seem logical.

Mac -> Brinniel 6

Not a cross post, knows he's tying Brinn, knows this doesn't mean she's the lynch.

Brinn -> G55 7

Little to read from 'I have to save myself'. An innocent knows they're an innocent, doesn't know what G55 is, has to save themselves. A wolf knows they're guilty, knows G55 is an innocent, has to save themselves!

Sally -> Brinniel 7

This was the only vote after the reveal and again little to read from it. An innocent would be desperate to save the Ranger, a wolf would be desperate to be seen that they were trying to save the Ranger.

Lalaith - no vote

Lal, in the interests of the fact that the Day could have ended really differently, who would you have voted for there? I know it's with hindsight, but would still be interesting!

[Rune Son of Bjarne]

Originally Posted by Kath

Rune said this was cross posted with everyone from 244. I would like to know if that includes 244 because that was Kit's vote for Brinn. Is Rune pushing up Brinn to tie with G55 here or did he not know that?

I believe I was aware of post 244 prior to starting typing. However when I cast my vote I was not aware of the exact number of votes for each person. I hope that answers your question.

[Kath]

Oh my goodness RL stuff has meant time has really got away from me toDay. This is going to have to be quicker than I would like.

Rikae surely had to be a suspected Gifted kill, I simply can't see the point of it otherwise, so all these 'I'm being framed' theories make no sense to me. Mac thinking he's being framed, Inzil thinking there could be a frame related to Brinn, Brinn suggesting it was a frame on her

Originally Posted by Inzil

Rikae was the first vote on Brinn, and it must be significant that the wolves went after them. It's far too early for them to have been simply wanting to frame someone.

(I edited Inzil's words for pronouns there). Inzil agrees it seems.

Whereas Lottie:

Originally Posted by Lottie

My guess is, the wolves thought Rikae looked so innocent after the G55 fight - it's doubtful the cobbler went full tilt after someone they thought could be a wolf - that she wouldn't provide much cover for them. Semi-known innocents can be really powerful, after all.

Also a valid argument, I just feel that so early in the game the wolves can't afford to not be aiming at Gifteds.

Originally Posted by Hui

The fact that so few people commented on it as it was ongoing surprises me - it felt like such a big thing! But it was mostly just a vocal Cobbler doing her best to incite a flame war.

I'll be honest and say it's something I've seen before with at least Rikae and I think that's true of a few players here.

Originally Posted by Hui

What jumped out to me from that? I think Pitchwife is as suspicious as all get-out, for when and how he voiced his suspicions and placed his vote. Lommy flipflops (sorry, considers both sides). Both Legate and Lottie talk about lynching Brinn for information, which I don't much like on a Day 1 this busy. And if Eonwe is a wolf who masterminded the wagon and then didn't even need to climb on it (switching to a vote-the-absentee strategy on Urwen), then he pulled it off with masterful skill.

Is all this based on simply the fact that people went after Brinn? Given we don't know her role can such firm suspicions really be drawn at this point. If she'd been lynched and had turned out to be innocent I think this would all deserve a bit more credence.

Originally Posted by Inzil

I thought they looked dodgy at the end of yesterDay. After so heavily going after G55, they failed to vote that way. I wondered if a Rikae-wolf hadn't started picking up the Cobblerishness.

(I edited for pronouns again) This is about Rikae in response to Lottie saying Rikae would likely have been presumed innocent toDay. Interesting that even hypothetically there may have been two sides to this.

Originally Posted by Brinn

Just a thought about the QT vote - there are now two players in that thread and one is a cobbler. It's highly unlikely G55 will cooperate with Rikae and I believe if I'm right, in the case of a tie, G55 swings the vote. So while she may not know who the wolves are, we will all have to take that vote with a grain of salt.

Agreed, but at least it's only one vote in still a very large village.

Originally Posted by Mac

In her vote, Gala mentions other things, but following her posts, she very much started going after Rikae because they misrepresented something I said, thus exaggerating her suspicion of me. That's what everything spiraled out of control from. Gala must have thought Rikae was gifted, it makes no sense that she would go after them like that over that little reason if it was otherwise. A cobbler’s life isn’t worth much, but they tend to not go kamikaze this early without purpose.

Maybe she got hunter or ranger vibes from something, possible, but:
- it’s not unreasonable that seer-Rikae would pick me as their first dream.
- if you’re the seer and you know a wolf, what do you do? Keep quiet? Drop hints? Go all out and accuse? Try to subtly steer the village into lynching that wolf?
The way Rikae suspected me could fit the latter. Gala tried to associate herself with me several times, which makes me suspect that Gala thought so as well, a cobbler trying to reach out to who she thought was a wolf.

I'm not quite following the idea that G55 would have purposefully tried to associate with Mac if he is a wolf, when a Cobbler has no way of knowing who the wolves are, and presumably doesn't want to draw attention to anyone they think might be one.

Originally Posted by Brinn

So I found Pitch slightly suspicious yesterDay because he picked on Legate who if innocent, could be easy to build a case against. I did back off some on the suspicions, as I sensed a bandwagon building on him and if he were innocent, could be the work of wolves and didn't want to be caught up in it (which is apparently the post that several including Rikae found to be suspicious).

In terms of a Pitch-wagon building up as you say, who were you finding worrisome in the mix? You ended up voting G55 to save yourself, which I said earlier is entirely natural whatever a person's role, so if there hadn't been the need, would your vote still have gone to Pitch?

Originally Posted by Eonwe

One thing that I don't think people have really addressed toDay is that Pitch was seriously on the chopping block yesterDay and then managed to get taken out of the running, and a large part of that was G55 becoming an eligible vote candidate due to Zil and Lottie.

When I was going through the votes earlier this whole section involved a LOT of cross voting. Kitanna and Inzil's votes were cross posted and so Pitch and G55 were still equally in the running at that point. Lottie's vote was the first clear one to put G55 one ahead.

Originally Posted by THE Ka

When I was suspicious of both Brinn and Loslote of drifting into the shadow of Rikae-G55 debate, Loslote was the one out of the two who began defending themselves. A villager is probably gonna show anxiety on small things like when they replied to you, semantics and word choice, etc. not immediately what you’re accusing them of. At that point, they just want to prove themselves.

I can't quite tell whether you're saying that Lottie defending herself makes you think she is more likely to be an innocent or not.

Originally Posted by Eonwe

One thing I'm wondering about is the very very late timing of the G55 reveal. The options, at increasing levels of bluff, seem to be:

She was trying to get an innocent Brinn killed.
She wanted us to believe (1), but actually thought Brinn was an Infector and knew it was too late.
She wanted us to believe (2), but actually thought that Brinn was innocent and wants us to suspect her by assuming (2) is true.

Originally Posted by Lommy

I think she just wanted to 1) save herself possibly (and in doing so, sacrifice Brinn which just says she didn't think her a particularly likely wolf), 2) possibly flush out the real ranger, and 3) cause chaos. Why not do it earlier? Maybe she didn't think she'd actually get lynched, or it didn't cross her mind until then. I wouldn't spend too much time on this.

And at the point she revealed, there were two more people to vote, and as Lal has now said if she'd appeared in that moment she would likely have voted Brinn in order to save the 'Ranger' and along with sally's vote that would have been G55 saved to presumably continue causing chaos the following day. So it could have had big ramifications.

Originally Posted by Kitanna

It wasn't that the vote for Brinn didn't come with a decent argument, it was it looked so obviously like he didn't want to tangle himself in an LGP bandwagon. Looking at the voting table, when he voted G55 was ahead and his vote tied Brinn though it wouldn't have mattered since first vote of a tie dies. I'm not sure how cross-posted his vote was though. He may not have known that his would tie up votes.

About Mac. Not a cross vote as far as I could tell when I looked at all the votes, and yes even with the tie it wouldn't have caused Brinn to be lynched if those had been the last votes.

Originally Posted by Inzil

It could hardly have stayed hidden. Thing is, the only way she could have known G55 wasn't who she claimed was if she was the Ranger herself. If that's the case, why on Arda would Rikae have been a better target over Kit (unless the Wolves indeed were antsy Rikae might be the Seer)?

See this is why I didn't really mention Kit in the voting round up. It was one strong reaction, but given the assumptions it raised, not bringing that to the forefront seemed more sensible. I'm assuming you're thinking that her being alive still suggests the reaction isn't a sign of ... what I thought we all thought it was a sign of!

Originally Posted by Lottie

Also, if Kit is NOT the Ranger and the wolves decided to sacrifice her in order to draw out the real Ranger, I would implore the real Ranger to NOT come out just to expose her. I agree that I am hugely suspicious of Zil and, to a lesser degree, Lhuna and Pitch for continuing to talk about it. Drawing attention to it doesn't help the village at all.

I'm wary that any of this conversation really happened. And still seems to be happening even onto a new page after it was first brought up and then it was suggested that perhaps it be left alone.

[Thinlómien]

++Macalaure

Can I now say "let's make this more interesting"?

But seriously though, someone's gotta start, and it might as well be me since I have a clear main suspect and he's had a chance to defend himself but I didn't really buy it.

Will continue to pop in and out until the DL!


edit: xed with Legate

[Brinniel]

Originally Posted by Kath

In terms of a Pitch-wagon building up as you say, who were you finding worrisome in the mix? You ended up voting G55 to save yourself, which I said earlier is entirely natural whatever a person's role, so if there hadn't been the need, would your vote still have gone to Pitch?

Between the three, Boro for his flimsy reasoning and Kit because her case against him could be opportunistic and the timing of her vote (was looking to be the start of another bandwagon). I don't like Shasta's vote either, but find it less worrisome.

Ideally, I would've voted Inzil or Kit for the reasons I mentioned yesterDay. But between Pitch and G55, yes I would've preferred Pitch as I thought him more suspicious than her.

[Kitanna]

I have spent more time on WW than my actual job today. Oops. I get done an hour before DL and hope to get more analysis done then.

[THE Ka]

Originally Posted by Kath

As to why Rikae for the Night kill, I would assume the wolves were gunning for someone they thought might be the Seer. It would seem foolish for them not to always be aiming for a Gifted. Trying to set up frame jobs is all well and good in theory but their aim surely has to be to get rid of the greatest danger towards them.

Due to her confidence of play style and zeal? You could easily argue that Kit could make it onto the ‘possible Seer’ list as well for wolves for similar reasons. Lommy could come in as a possible third on such a list due to the proximity of her interactions with the main popular suspects.

I’m not really getting the hint they had a belief in Rikae being a gifted such as a Seer, but possibly another gifted role and barring that, settled with if Rikae was an innocent then they’d want them out of the way to play on other’s bias of who was most critical of them (sans G55) and knowing that there might not be another innocent who'd engage as eagerly with Rikae (thus causing some bait to see who would be an easy pick) in an argument.

Originally Posted by Rune

*raises on eyebrow* I don't love how he continually brings up himself as mewolf and crafts a conspiracy theory around wolves setting him up.

It is curious that Mac has increased this this type of semi-joking argument toDay. Yesterday based on actions I could understand the flighty tone he answered questions laid at him about his ‘lists’, but this is as if he’s trying to rehearse a story by telling and talking about himself over and over and then feigning ‘usual paranoia’.
So, why does Mac want to be a point of attention?

Who benefits from Mac’s performance is really what I’m wondering.

Originally Posted by Loslote

Also, if Kit is NOT the Ranger and the wolves decided to sacrifice her in order to draw out the real Ranger, I would implore the real Ranger to NOT come out just to expose her.

Why… why would the real Ranger do that on the end of Day 2?

Ranger is arguably one of the more key gifted roles next to Seer. You’d want to remain concealed as much as possible in order to see from the game Day who you need to protect that Night.
If someone pretends to be your role? Oh well. You can’t immediately go after them the next Day in game without drawing obvious attention.
G55 throwing out there last minute about ‘But I’m a Ranger!’ was as duping delight as a cobbler could get.

[Loslote]

Also, to address this quickly:

Originally Posted by THE Ka

Why… why would the real Ranger do that on the end of Day 2?

Ranger is arguably one of the more key gifted roles next to Seer. You’d want to remain concealed as much as possible in order to see from the game Day who you need to protect that Night.
If someone pretends to be your role? Oh well. You can’t immediately go after them the next Day in game without drawing obvious attention.
G55 throwing out there last minute about ‘But I’m a Ranger!’ was as duping delight as a cobbler could get.

I saw that whole thing happening, realized I was caught up, and my first thought was, "Okay, Kit isn't a wolf. But. Wait. If Kit IS a wolf after all, what would be the point of revealing? To draw out the real Ranger. I should make sure that doesn't happen, just in case!" Now, was that necessary? Probably not, it seems pretty obvious. But at the time, it seemed important to say.

[Shastanis Althreduin]

Originally Posted by Kath

Shasta -> Pitchwife 2 (I'm jerking the reins a bit here) ~ Shasta

I'd be interested to know a bit more about this vote, Shasta. This vote created a three way tie at the time between Pitch, G55 and Brinn. It's certainly consistent with his earlier suspicions, I just wonder why Pitch over Brinn at this point, especially with the comment at the point of vote as well.

I was fine with either a Pitchwife or Brinniel lynch at the time, Pitch slightly more, so I voted early to tie them and keep them in the village crosshairs ("jerking the reins") - I didn't vote G55 because I thought she was the Cobbler and not a wolf.

[Brinniel]

Originally Posted by Lommy

If he's a wolf, I wager Brinn is one too. He pretty much admitted to trying to save her on Day1, which just sounded off to me.

Well we aren't both wolves since I'm not one, but I do agree his save of me seems off. As I stated before, maybe a wolf trying to come off as innocent by trying to save another innocent.

I could vote Hui, but I would prefer Inzil. Feeling less sure about Mac - his latest posts feel okay, but I keep going back and forth on this.

[Legate of Amon Lanc]

Hey whatever. I may just as well do something on time for once, and offer some options.

++Huinesoron

And perhaps not only the votes themselves, but also the current "setup of bandwagons" may get us some information.

[Huinesoron]

Okay, I've snatched a few minutes. To the people suspicious of me - it seems like most of this comes out of my misreading/over-simplifying things? I've taken the concrit on board, and will make sure to read more carefully toMorrow. (I have a bad habit of semi-skimming over bits of posts, and then forgetting that there was anything between the first and last points to catch my eye.) I welcome the scrutiny - all you'll find is that I've tried my best to follow the evidence.

ToMorrow is the weekend; not sure how that'll affect my posting, but I'll definitely try to answer any questions about my thinking.

(And to whoever said I sound like a salesman - probably! I've spent the past five or six years routinely sending emails with 'thank you, and best regards' at the end, it's a hard habit to break!)

Checking for cross-posts... okay, I got a vote, and I'm bad for Mac's blood pressure, but ultimately I don't see anything to change my stated intention (specifically including, nothing in Mac's post (last second edit: posts) allays my worries). So since I now have to go:

++Macalaure

hS

[Boromir88]

On Lhuna...

Her smaller posts with shorter comments look innocent. Bringing up points about a ranger reveal and wondering why Lottie felt the need to say if Kit's a wolf and faking, the real ranger should not reveal.

Her longer posts looking at individuals and her suspects makes me more wary. To save Rune's eyes (a sentiment I try to agree with but doesn't always happen). I'll just link the post here..

I'm having trouble following what she's actually suspicious of Lommy of other than a comment when voting "let's make this interesting." Then it's just "You would know. Tricksy. False."

Then her post before her vote...here

Has Lommy in the suspects list, but there's no input.

I'm having a lot of trouble figuring out why Lhuna found Lommy suspicious at all.

[Rune Son of Bjarne]

Originally Posted by Boromir88

On Lhuna...

Her longer posts looking at individuals and her suspects makes me more wary. To save Rune's eyes (a sentiment I try to agree with but doesn't always happen). I'll just link the post here..

I'm having trouble following what she's actually suspicious of Lommy of other than a comment when voting "let's make this interesting." Then it's just "You would know. Tricksy. False."

Thank You!

Nice and concise post, also you make a valid point about Lhuna mentioning Lommy early on, but actually giving us basically nothing prior to the vote.

I will consider moving her to the neutral category on my epic list.

[Macalaure]

I might not be able to stay until the deadline, so probably my final thoughts:

Very bad
Huin, Greenie

Maybe bad
Lommy

Not sure about
Lhuna, Loslote, Brinniel, Boro, Sally, Lalaith - I forgot to look at Lalaith!

Probably not bad
Inzil, Legate, Shasta, Rune, Eonwe

Likely not bad
Pitch, THE Ka, Kath

[Thinlómien]

I'm just saying that if both Mac and I survive toDay I'm going to have the same headcahe toMorrow as I do toDay.

Originally Posted by Mac

*Officially nominating Rune to mod the next game.*

This would be epic! And quite a challenge for some of us...

Originally Posted by Lalaith

I'm not happy about a lot of things including the current candidates for lynching, none of whom I'm particularly keen to vote for.

Well, who would you vote? It's not too late to add another name, but soon it will be.


edit: xed with Hui

[Thinlómien]

Lommy -> Macalaure
Kath -> Inzil
Lhuna -> Lommy
Macalaure -> Lommy 2
QT -> Brinniel
Greenie -> Macalaure 2
Legate -> Huinesoron
Huinesoron -> Macalaure 3

[Rune Son of Bjarne]

I am going with my gut feeling (and the reasons on the list of doom)

++Loslote