Tol-in-Gaurhoth CXIV – The Evil Breath of Morgoth in Dor-lómin, game thread

[Brinniel]

Originally Posted by Macalaure

This is what I mean. I can feel a race between Pitch, G55, and Legate coming up, while the wolves are snickering in the background.

I'm not even saying that there isn't a wolf among them - it's possible - but I don't like the way this is gaining momentum.

I agree with this. I'm still a bit wary of G55 and Pitchwife (less so of the former), however I don't want to get caught in a trap. I think I will stay clear of this potential mess for toDay and focus elsewhere.

[Rikae]

Originally Posted by Brinniel

I'm still a bit wary of G55 and Pitchwife (less so of the former), however I don't want to get caught in a trap.

Interesting.

[Galadriel55]

Originally Posted by Macalaure

Actually, I usually get super nervous as a wolf and then it shows and then I die. The second part is true though.

Translation: "See how not nervous and sinister I look? Clearly I am an innocent!"

Originally Posted by Rikae

Are you serious or are you joking, then? So far you've started a lot of serious debate and accusations flowing with jokes.

If you're seriously suggesting my summary was meant to derail the village, well the bit about you was meant to see whether you responded with jumpy self-defense and/or whether anyone followed by suspecting you in an opportunistic way, both of which would give me/the village more to go on.

It was said in a joking tone, but I was dead serious about you being inaccurate and exaggerating. The most inaccurate thing about Mac you've addressed as an "oops, don't know how that got there" which sounds innocent but is still EXTREMELY unhelpful, since it sticks incorrectly in people's memories. When did Zil cast accusation on Legate as being a wolf? Find me that post, please, because I don't see one. What you said about Lommy - seriously?

I get that it's been part joke, but it's also so dangerous to half-seriously summarize things with such blatant exaggeration and inaccuracy, because again this is how it sticks in people's minds. Moreover, it's how people (especially yourself) can easily justify votes and suspicion later on - based on incorrect summaries. I can argue about the statements involving me as well, except that would be biased and there is sufficient to be said without it; the exception is the first statement, cause I can't recall where I "concluded" we need to lynch a wolf (I recall Lommy's post that you refer to but not mine).

So yes. A subtle diversion / tweaking of how people remember the events is not at all beyond your posts' potential achievements. Throw some unsupported shade on people, then dismiss half of it as a joke and half of it as an oopsy daisy, and the post gets forgiven but the shade remains. Actually, it was so bombastically inaccurate I am surprised only Mac called you out on it except for me.

(for ease of discussion for everyone else, we are both talking about #69.

Originally Posted by Brinniel

I agree with this. I'm still a bit wary of G55 and Pitchwife (less so of the former), however I don't want to get caught in a trap. I think I will stay clear of this potential mess for toDay and focus elsewhere.

Do you have better candidates? It's admirable to make sure you scrutinize everyone, not just the most vocal people. But not voting for someone you genuinely suspect because you think it might be a trap or get messy? This seems to be dancing too easily on the edge of voting whomever works out best for yourself. Brin, can I please request a summary of who you actually suspect?

A Brin-read to come later if I have time. It's gotta be done. You were under my radar for way too long toDay, and I can't see what your game is because I barely remember what your previous opinions were, except that they didn't stick out too far to be controversial.

[Legate of Amon Lanc]

Originally Posted by Thinlómien

Boro - he's really weird in this game. Yeah yeah, maybe he's just happy to play again. Or maybe his playing style changed over the years when we were not playing.

I have been just thinking the same thing! And exactly wondering whether it was him or my memory of him.

Originally Posted by Loslote

I absolutely do not suspect anyone on the basis of whether or not they supported the bonus vote round plan. I do think there is merit to Huin's point that Pitch soft defended G55, then when that was pointed out, soft attacked G55. That, coupled with the fact that I do suspect G55 based on other posts, leads me to think that they legitimately might be a wolf pair.

Fair enough.

Anyways... I may do a bit of a re-check and perhaps post an actual list of my impressions on everyone - or at least work on one to have it before DL. Since the "fake DL" would be soon, I could reiterate what I said and say that right now, I'd vote for

++Kitanna

But I want to do a full re-check before the actual DL, hope I will have time for it.

EDIT: xe-d since the Lottie post I quoted

[Galadriel55]

Originally Posted by Loslote

Could you elaborate on what you're referring to here? So far, I've felt like Rikae has been straightforward and clear, and I haven't gotten a bad vibe from her at all. Also, this:

#69.

Seriously? No one else except Mac has noticed anything wrong with that post? And Mac only noticed it because he was the one falsely accused. Notice how no one else picked up on the incorrect information. Don't you find it scary manipulative to have thoughts put into your head like that? Village, what is wrong with you for blindly eating up what you're fed, regardless of Rikae's actual role or intention?

Originally Posted by Rune Son of Bjarne

Maeglin is a traitor, so why would one bring him into the fray. To me that is a cobbler hint, I didn’t bring it up earlier because I wanted us to focus on the sick.

Because Maeglin is Urwen's latest character obsession. She will find a way to bring him into any discussion. See like all of her posts in the last year.

Originally Posted by Legate of Amon Lanc

Me neither - and not only because I am one of them, but considering this.
Day 1 starts. As expected of Day 1, there isn't much to talk about, people are joking about washing hands etc.
Then, among a few actual posts with content, G55 proposes (the way I see it now) an alternative to "no vote on Day 1" in the form of a "fake vote".
I understand it as a "dry run vote" and propose an elaborate scheme which makes half the people not understand what I meant.
Pitchwife questions it.

Cut to: "one of these three is a Wolf". For what? For suggesting a "bonus vote round"? For baiting me into talking about "bonus vote round" so that they could accuse me of coming up with it? Is talking about this "bonus vote round" something inherently evil, so WWs would assume that they could paint the person who talked about it as suspicious? This has nothing to do with whether the people involved may be innocent or guilty otherwise, but this debate should have zero impact on it?!?

What I mean is to ask: where is there anything "evil" in this debate in the first place? The whole idea seems horribly contrived. It is more like "look, three people started arguing here, let's pick a lynchee from among them". Only normally, when people argue, they argue about whether XY is suspicious or not, or perhaps whether we should lynch nobody on Day 1. Now in those debates, you could at least argue that one side is arguing for something with a malicious intent. But we argued (or anyway, "argued", on top of everything) about something that, I think, is "outside morality and ethics".

I ask everyone who suspects anyone on the grounds of this to reexamine (and ideally, explain) their reasoning.

That is actually very reasonable and unpanicked defense. However, it misses the main point of all the accusations, which are not about the content of the Votes Debate but the manner in which players have interacted in it. Still, points to Legate for level-headedness regardless of his role.

Edit: xed since my last

[Rune Son of Bjarne]

Originally Posted by Galadriel55

#

Because Maeglin is Urwen's latest character obsession. She will find a way to bring him into any discussion. See like all of her posts in the last year.

How very convenient!
Okay, fair enough I haven't been around much so I wouldn't know.

[Galadriel55]

Originally Posted by Rikae

As for sidestepping, I'm here to catch wolves, not get bogged down justifying the steps I took to do so.

This is just about the worst thing you can say to improve my opinion. So now you should get a free card to do whatever and not have your words questioned, because it's in the name of catching wolves? That is quite an irritable and jumpy response to a bit of pressure.

However:

Originally Posted by Rikae

Anyway, right now my fake vote would go to:

++Brinniel

For immediately repeating 2 of 3 names from my list as suspicions, and then backtracking explicitly to avoid getting caught in a trap right after I explained to G55 that my post was intended as a wolf trap. That was ostensibly a reply to Mac saying the group was mostly innocent, but the coincidence is just too much for me to ignore.

I know, these are the kinds of things a wolf would definitely make sure not to do, right? Right. So much so, it could be used as cover. And an innocent doing them coincidentally? That feels like a bigger stretch to me.

This actually makes sense, and doesn't ring evil.

Originally Posted by Loslote

This was still very early on Day 1, and frankly, I am not sure what in this post you think is so inaccurate. Is it a bit tongue in cheek? Yeah, maybe. But I'm pretty sure everything Rikae summarized actually was part of the early banter and tentative strategy talk. If you were a wolf, I could see you not wanting to focus on the other members of the G55-Legate-Pitch tangle, and wanting to try to start up a distracting bandwagon. I honestly don't really see the motivation for an ordo to devote this much energy towards a suspicion that isn't really built on much of anything. If we were doing the bonus vote, I would definitely be voting for G55 at this point.

Read that post again. And then try to match the statements with an actual post. See how that matches up.

Originally Posted by Huinesoron

Is it just me, or is hypothetically contemplating possible Wolf victories not entirely the action of an innocent villager?

Only if hypothetically contemplating possible village victories is not entirely the action of a Wolf.

Originally Posted by Huinesoron

Okay, I think I've caught up with the ever-moving present. I feel like the Day has split into three phases: phase 1 being the actual discussion over the fake votes idea, phase two being reactions to and suspicions over the parts people played in it, and now phase 3 is suspicion over those reactions. I want to reread phase 2, because I think phase 4 (analysing the current suspicions) is likely to be too deep down the rabbit hole: we'll all be looking at so many levels of info that you could form a plausible suspicion of everyone!

This is hilariously accurate.




I have online lectures starting in under an hour, so while I might pop in for a brief comment throughout the remainder of the Day I will vote before they start, in case things happen too quickly and I end up missing the deadline.

[Rikae]

Originally Posted by Galadriel55

This is just about the worst thing you can say to improve my opinion. So now you should get a free card to do whatever and not have your words questioned, because it's in the name of catching wolves? That is quite an irritable and jumpy response to a bit of pressure.

Is it? So be it. You keep waffling on whether I'm suspicious or not, but if you really think I'm your best bet, go ahead and vote for me.

I explained what I was doing, and you ignored it and demanded an explanation again ... and again. I call that getting bogged down. It is what it is, and there is nothing more to say. That post is not the justification for my current top suspects (torn between Brinniel and you, for actions after that post). Anyone who finds my explanation of that post unsatisfying is welcome to vote for me.

[Nogrod]

To answer & comment two things.


There are no retractable votes aka. voting with highlighted letters is final.

You may make "fake-votes", but please make them clearly different, as you have nicly done thus far (I actually liked Lommy's version of using +- in front of the vote).

Originally Posted by G55

Speaking of hypothetical ideas, this scenario kinda came into my mind last night. So, it's the EndGame, and alive are Wolf, Hunter (hunting the Wolf), and Ordo. Ordo dies. Wolf devours Hunter, but Hunter takes down the wolf. Does either side win?

If that is the situation on the end of the Day and the Ordo is voted out, then Wolves win, because at the start of the Night it is 1-1 which by default means Wolf-victory.

If we go into the Night with those three, the Wolf has, purely numerically, 75% chance on winning. Picking the Ordo by Night the Wolf wins: when Day breaks it's 1-1. Picking the Hunter the wolf has 50-50 chance of winning, depending on whether the Hunter hunts the Wolf or the Ordo.

In Real Game circumstances the odds surely are different because there can be well founded suspicions or even knowledge involved in the picks the last players make.

[Rikae]

I might not make it back before the DL, so I'll cast my vote now.

I really can't make up my mind about G55 and I feel like her current behavior could possibly throw my judgement off. I'm keeping my eye on her, but:

++Brinniel

For reasons previously listed (opportunism, avoiding a trap), and a general safe-wolf, tiptoe-around-the-edges vibe.

[Boromir88]

A little past 3 hours until deadline...

A tally of "I would vote for"

Shasta for Lommy (This was before the half-way point of Day 1. I wouldn't read it as something Shasta would stick to now. It was his last slight spurt of posting)
Boro for Legate (post 113 for a reference)
Rikae for Brinn (post 148)
Lommy for Boro (post 150)
Legate for Kitanna (post 151)
Lottie for G55 (post 152, but I think the reasoning is from post 149)

If I missed anyone's sorry...hard to kind spot them. Those were the ones that I already specifically noted. So, yeah, Day 1 shots in the dark. It is rather interesting to judge and look at what's going on.

Boro - he's really weird in this game. Yeah yeah, maybe he's just happy to play again. Or maybe his playing style changed over the years when we were not playing. But I'm mostly worried about the fact that he's not half as confrontational as usual, but instead posting long introspective rambles where he conveniently doesn't have to go toe-to-toe with anyone.~Lommy

Take this however, but true, it's exactly my tone right now. True, I like to get in there and pick fights, but find the task hard to do on Day 1. How do you get right in there after someone based on completely random reasons? I find the task difficult and then get more aggressive as more solid reasons come in.

Then with some of the other kerfuffles taking place today, I hold back being involved to let the plot play out. Not all planning is evil and I try to avoid drawing attention towards people until I'm more sure of intent.

The one thing I was most certain of agreeing with today was Pitch's comment that there was a difference in that LGP group between Legate's "enthusiasm" in jumping on G55's question to stir conversation. If I'm reading correctly now. Did Pitch sort of back away from suspecting G55, to defending G55, and back track again? I'm going back through those interactions, because if true, that does ping more to my fight senses than anything else today.

And then the true vote tally...

Lhuna for Lhuna

Edit: crossed with everything since last post on Page 4

[Shastanis Althreduin]

Originally Posted by Boromir88

A little past 3 hours until deadline...

A tally of "I would vote for"

Shasta for Lommy (This was before the half-way point of Day 1. I wouldn't read it as something Shasta would stick to now. It was his last slight spurt of posting)

It's worth noting nothing so far has swayed me on Lommy in that she was my first real ping, but she deserves a thorough re-read.

Much more interesting and pressing is Pitch/Eonwe, in my mind. Rikae/G55 has played itself out, in my opinion - Rikae reads innocent to me and the jury's still out on G55, though I'd lean Cobbler over Wolf if she's evil, based on the timing.

[Thinlómien]

Ummm, I think we should collectively start turning up earlier before the DL because there's so many of us

Greenie has a solid point on Mac.

Brinn's read on Kit is very different from mine. Interesting. While Kit's reading of Brinn is weird too - it's like a brinnwolf couldn't be a little clumsy (anyone can!), or innocent!Brinn couldn't be a little wishywashy. I very much don't think Brinn is the cobbler!

Originally Posted by Lottie

I would much rather vote for G55 or Pitch over Brinn. Let's try not to split the vote between them, though - I suspect they are both wolves, so I don't especially mind which one gets lynched, as I think either one will tell us a lot about the other.

Quite a bold statement for Day1 and pretty much out of nowhere??

Of the currently voted people, I would prefer not to lynch Lhuna or Rikae. Maybe not Pitch either.

[Loslote]

Originally Posted by Thinlómien

Quite a bold statement for Day1 and pretty much out of nowhere??

I've said that I think they're a wolf pair a couple of times now.

[Brinniel]

Originally Posted by G55

Do you have better candidates? It's admirable to make sure you scrutinize everyone, not just the most vocal people. But not voting for someone you genuinely suspect because you think it might be a trap or get messy? This seems to be dancing too easily on the edge of voting whomever works out best for yourself. Brin, can I please request a summary of who you actually suspect?

Between the three of you that have been brought up, I found Pitchwife's posts to be most suspicious. However, I'm second-guessing myself because I'm starting to think he may just be easy cannon fodder for the wolves. I don't find Legate suspicious and reading your posts today, I'm less wary of you.

I honestly do not have time for full summary posts because I do actually have to work as I mentioned before. If I were to pick someone right now, I would say Inzil. I can't quite put my fingers on it, but I'd say it's mostly because he's one of the most frequent posters, yet I find him providing less of substance and just going with the flow. Easy way for a wolf to hide.

If I do have time I may take a look at those building a case against Pitchwife.

[Rikae]

Originally Posted by Galadriel55

It was said in a joking tone, but I was dead serious about you being inaccurate and exaggerating. The most inaccurate thing about Mac you've addressed as an "oops, don't know how that got there" which sounds innocent but is still EXTREMELY unhelpful, since it sticks incorrectly in people's memories. When did Zil cast accusation on Legate as being a wolf? Find me that post, please, because I don't see one. What you said about Lommy - seriously?

I get that it's been part joke, but it's also so dangerous to half-seriously summarize things with such blatant exaggeration and inaccuracy, because again this is how it sticks in people's minds. Moreover, it's how people (especially yourself) can easily justify votes and suspicion later on - based on incorrect summaries. I can argue about the statements involving me as well, except that would be biased and there is sufficient to be said without it; the exception is the first statement, cause I can't recall where I "concluded" we need to lynch a wolf (I recall Lommy's post that you refer to but not mine).

So yes. A subtle diversion / tweaking of how people remember the events is not at all beyond your posts' potential achievements. Throw some unsupported shade on people, then dismiss half of it as a joke and half of it as an oopsy daisy, and the post gets forgiven but the shade remains. Actually, it was so bombastically inaccurate I am surprised only Mac called you out on it except for me.

It was indeed an exaggeration and over-generalization to see how people reacted, and you are certainly reacting.

Inzil agreed with Mac. At least that's how I read "Hmm. Perhaps."

If people are basing their votes on my comments a couple hours into day one, none of which I'm even using to support any suspicions, I don't know what they're doing. The only suspicion I even hinted at with any of that was of you, for subtly encouraging a plan/topic of conversation and then suspecting the person who pushed it forward.

That, in itself, isn't necessarily suspicious, but was enough to make me want to take a closer look. Which I did, and continue to do.

And now I'm really done with this topic.