Tol-in-Gaurhoth CXIV – The Evil Breath of Morgoth in Dor-lómin, game thread

[Kitanna]

I do hope everyone is practicing good personal hygiene. No breathing, sneezing, coughing, or otherwise expelling air into other people's faces. It's the only way to survive Morgoth's Breath from what I've heard. That and obsessively washing of the hands.

Originally Posted by Huinesoron

So was that a coincidence, or did we just overload the Downs by all refreshing at once? :O

Perhaps it was just you and your nefarious ways, eh? Crashing the server and whatnot. Shame.

Originally Posted by Pitchy

Let's see: village of 22, five of which are infectors. One out of four. Every fourth person. Starting from the top, and excluding myself, that's Lottie, Zil, Urwen (), Mac and Sally. There, case closed.

Seems very scientific and definitely not suspicious. /sarcasm

Originally Posted by Lottie

Goodness no. I have been washing my hands so often you can smell the soap from across the village, I assure you!

Sounds about right...

Originally Posted by Pitch

As can be learned from the works of the great forensic surgeon Pontiius Pilate, washing your hands isn't all it's cracked up to be.

I certainly laughed extremely loud at this.

Originally Posted by Lommy

Like I'm imanining multiple crossposted votes in the minutes before deadline.

Driven by you?

I actually agree about chaos at DL. It seems to fall at a remarkably convenient time for a lot of people and it will create a lot of fodder for the following day. So, that'll create some hilarious tension.

Originally Posted by Lommy

What kind of statement is this! Who in Arda *would* judge anyone/ decide their Day1 vote based on these handful of posts???

And yet I believe it has happened....? Misguided innocents swayed by super clever wolfsies.
I'm having flashbacks of all the brutal ways in which WW has seen me killed. I'm not at all stressed out about this game after so long. Not me. YOU'RE STRESSED OUT!!

[Pitchwife]

OK, Legate, let me ask you: What exactly do we have to gain from the kind of fake vote you're suggesting?
If it is just that, a fake vote with no real lynch as per G55, we've effectively wasted a day, nobody has to fear the consequences of their vote because without a lynch, we won't know whether they voted for an innoent or a wolf, and the wolves can go wolf-on-wolf to their hearts' content witrh no danger to any of them.
If it's just that people announce beforehand whom they are planning to vote, and the vote takes place later, and we compare what people said before to how they actually voted, how is this different from what we usually do?
This strikes me as a pseudo-useful suggestion/discussion. *ping*

[Galadriel55]

Originally Posted by Thinlómien

Fishy fishy fake reasonable! What kind of statement is this! Who in Arda *would* judge anyone/ decide their Day1 vote based on these handful of posts???

Well, don't you look at the whole gestalt of a person's posts before voting, including the early handful of posts (which is actually growing quite big for a handful )? Dismissing early posts because of the "nothing really happens" argument is dismissing part of the evidence.

Originally Posted by Legate of Amon Lanc

Hey, THAT is actually a pretty good idea. Because seriously. It would kinda force the Wolves' hands (or tongues). I like that. I mean people can of course flip-flop later, but it isn't easy. I like it. I wholeheartedly second it. Let's do this!

(Seriously, it seems to me like something that should have come up like, years ago? What's wrong with people?)

Ok, cobbler much? Even I don't like my idea with so much enthusiasm. I was mainly kinda curious if that tack has ever been tried - and why not, cause it's marginally less bad than the No Votes At All camp.

But speaking of dry-runs, yeah, making people actually cast a fake vote forces them to select one person they wanna off, instead of making lists which can be quite vague. But putting a -3h deadline just adds more chaos in the last bit of the Day, don't you think?

Originally Posted by Pitchwife

Please let's not.

Not even for the good old times? Nah, I'm not actually arguing in favour of it. It just seems such an integral part of Day 1.

Originally Posted by Pitchwife

Well, since in this game the first to be tied is lynched I'd expect there to be a little less chaos in the last minutes before deadline, less people holding back their vote till the last possible second. So, hm, let me think, couldn't 'spreading the votes a little' be a safe tactic for wolves as long as there's enough votes for a non-wolf?

Ummm... Again, please? Sorry, not sure what you mean. As in spreading the votes in time? I understand how spreading the vote among multiple candidates can help the wolves pick the one they prefer to be offed, but I don't get what you're getting to here.

Originally Posted by Brinniel

Hey guys! I've come bearing gifts - masks, hand sanitizer, soap, and most importantly...toilet paper! Now I better see you all using these items - we wouldn't want to spread any diseases now, would we?

Beware of Greeks bearing gifts!



Edit: crossed with Kit and Pitch

[Pitchwife]

Originally Posted by Galadriel55

Ummm... Again, please? Sorry, not sure what you mean. As in spreading the votes in time? I understand how spreading the vote among multiple candidates can help the wolves pick the one they prefer to be offed, but I don't get what you're getting to here.

OK, let's suppose that, say, an hour before DL there's 3 votes for an innocent, 2 for a wolf and 2 for another innocent. If the last to be tied gets quarantined, the wolves need to be on their toes till the last minute to make sure it's not one of them. If it's the first to be tied, they can spread their votes as they like and the first innocent will still be eliminated.

Originally Posted by Galadriel55

Beware of Greeks bearing gifts!

I would have said Romulans, but otherwise you took the words out of my mouth.

[Boromir88]

If I'm understanding this fake-voting plan Legate's brought to the table...

Fast forward to say 2 hours before the deadline. I announce I'm back and caught up to date on the events. Get myself into the mindset of "alright DL 2 hours away, but if it was NOW, of all the information and votes that have taken place I would vote ++Legate (insert reason, reason here)." And in doing that there is more information provided than providing a list of "possibilities."

Then unless something drastic happens in the next 2 hours (and if we're being honest it will. There is the inevitable deadline flurry voting that throws plans off). The point of the exercising of my prior "fake vote" is not so much to say "AHH you back-pedaled you can't back-pedal from your fake vote!" If Legate wasn't a likely option, I would expect a bunch of back-pedaling to take place. The purpose would be to get a look at reasoning for what happened in those 2 hours to either stay with my fake vote or back-pedal from it. Which, in itself is informative

I'm not a list maker, I've tried to do shopping lists, but wind up stopping after listing 2 items and trying to think of what else I need. So I wind up just going without a list and get a bunch of junk I didn't actually need. Get this, one time I went telling myself I needed milk, eggs, carrots and lettuce and came back with like toilet paper, a dagger and this new fried sugary dough thing. I did get the carrots but I completely botched that trip.

I'm not good with lists, but others need lists, so can we mandate it? Are we allowed to pass mandates?

Crikey, this is the 60th time I've been in similar nightmares. They all get worse than the one before it. I'm surprised no one's coughed yet? I was waiting for the first person to cough. Not that coughing is a sure sign, if I cough it's my seasonal allergies. I will take an oath if I do cough, I will make sure I'm all clear and cough into my elbow. I was hoping someone would cough right out into the open, but that was too optimistic.

[Galadriel55]

Originally Posted by Boromir88

If I'm understanding this fake-voting plan Legate's brought to the table...

Fast forward to say 2 hours before the deadline. I announce I'm back and caught up to date on the events. Get myself into the mindset of "alright DL 2 hours away, but if it was NOW, of all the information and votes that have taken place I would vote ++Legate (insert reason, reason here)." And in doing that there is more information provided than providing a list of "possibilities."

Then unless something drastic happens in the next 2 hours (and if we're being honest it will. There is the inevitable deadline flurry voting that throws plans off). The point of the exercising of my prior "fake vote" is not so much to say "AHH you back-pedaled you can't back-pedal from your fake vote!" If Legate wasn't a likely option, I would expect a bunch of back-pedaling to take place. The purpose would be to get a look at reasoning for what happened in those 2 hours to either stay with my fake vote or back-pedal from it. Which, in itself is informative

Ok, so this makes sense, it's basically what Legate has already explained. But -

Originally Posted by Boro

I'm not a list maker, I've tried to do shopping lists, but wind up stopping after listing 2 items and trying to think of what else I need. So I wind up just going without a list and get a bunch of junk I didn't actually need. Get this, one time I went telling myself I needed milk, eggs, carrots and lettuce and came back with like toilet paper, a dagger and this new fried sugary dough thing. I did get the carrots but I completely botched that trip.

I'm not good with lists, but others need lists, so can we mandate it? Are we allowed to pass mandates?

Umm, what was that all about? I get that you want to replace/amend the idea of lists with a single choice, the top pick. But seriously, what?

Should we test you for viral encephalopathy?

Originally Posted by Boro

Crikey, this is the 60th time I've been in similar nightmares. They all get worse than the one before it. I'm surprised no one's coughed yet? I was waiting for the first person to cough. Not that coughing is a sure sign, if I cough it's my seasonal allergies. I will take an oath if I do cough, I will make sure I'm all clear and cough into my elbow. I was hoping someone would cough right out into the open, but that was too optimistic.

*cough*
*cough cough*
*ahem*
*clears throat*

Congrats on the anniversary!


(Completely unrelated, but for some reason I forgot how to spell "throat" and ended up with something like "throuaght". Do I need to be tested for viral encephalopathy too? )

[Macalaure]

Ah, Day 1. Where all we can do is make up reasons out of thin air.

*sniffs*

Ugh, nah. The air over Dor-lomin isn't what it used to be. And here people say that the air would be cleaner if everybody stayed in their village.

Anyway.

Fakes votes, eh?

If we mean fake votes instead of real ones, to avoid a Day1 lynch, I don't see the usefulness in that. Since those votes lack any consequence, it's the easiest thing for wolves to throw their votes at whoever, or wolf-on-wolf without the risk that comes with it.

If we mean a deadline before the deadline. Really? What about the people with tighter schedules. We can't expect everybody to be available for two deadlines.

Worse, the day after people will be too quick to jump on those who changed their mind from one deadline to the next. Wolves, on the other hand, lacking conscience, will have a very easy time showing consistency.

I find it very odd how very enthusiastic Legate is about this. My immediate thought was the one that Gala had, too: very cobblerish. A wolf wouldn't stick their head out that far, and one would expect an innocent person to be a bit more measured in their response, weighing pros and cons. Not saying a wolf can't fake a careful approach, of course.

[Boromir88]

Originally Posted by Galadriel55

Umm, what was that all about? I get that you want to replace/amend the idea of lists with a single choice, the top pick. But seriously, what?

Should we test you for viral encephalopathy?

I might need such a test. Whether we're aware, or in the unconscious, we all remain in-character. Agreed? And what do you glean from my in-character? Am I aware I'm doing it or is it in the unconscious? Leave that thought there for a moment.

Currently, I am feeling joy and thrilled recognizing this makes 60. And thank you, because like I said, just joy to still have the enthusiasm and thrill that through 60 times this thing hasn't killed me yet. Then again, knowing that repeating similar situations 60 times takes quite a bit of toll on a person. Leave that thought for a moment.

I feel excitement for everyone being gathered together again. Then there's the fear that well, this is exactly the opposite of the right thing to do. Joy that there's a few newcomers, a lot who have returned from more recent-long break, and a handful who I thought had disappeared completely only to see they're back too.

So, I'm trying to take those 59 previous experiences and think what is everyone's style of play? I know everyone's always adapting and tinkering with their style, but it's hard to consciously break from what makes us comfortable. So, will people stick with what's familiar and stick to habit? And what about the ones who have been out for 5+ years? What do I remember about their style? Are they going to stick to what I remember, or do something completely different? Am I even remembering their "style" correctly?

All in all, it's a confliction of joy and excitement, with double and triple guessing and maybe a touch of paranoia. Add on someone who does a lot of mental lists, only to forget what I set out to accomplish. Now, having all that, what do you glean from my in-character?

True, true. Things never do seem to go according to plan around here. And then the ones who don't follow the plan become lynch fodder the next Day and more often than not turn out to be innocent.-Brinn

Needed to read that, it's worth keeping in mind. Thank you. Granted my mind might look a bit jumbled at the moment. But still it's now in my mind, somewhere.

[Pitchwife]

I just lost a post replying to G55's #45 twice due to internet failure, and I'm not going to type it all again. We can discuss the question tomorrow, if it's still an issue. For now, it's bedtime for me. See ya!

[Legate of Amon Lanc]

Originally Posted by Galadriel55

Ok, cobbler much? Even I don't like my idea with so much enthusiasm. I was mainly kinda curious if that tack has ever been tried - and why not, cause it's marginally less bad than the No Votes At All camp.

But speaking of dry-runs, yeah, making people actually cast a fake vote forces them to select one person they wanna off, instead of making lists which can be quite vague.

That's exactly what I meant. If you meant it only as a "soft version of no vote", then no, that is no better than no vote, because then Wolves could straightaway lie and nobody would care.

Originally Posted by Galadriel55

But putting a -3h deadline just adds more chaos in the last bit of the Day, don't you think?

Well whatever. I just wanted to set rather the latest possible time (so people DO have time to think - especially toDay, if I said that it would be halfway through the Day, some people may not have even posted yet), but before the QT vote would come through (as that could further shuffle it - but most importantly, the WWs couldn't just jump on a bandwagon created by the QT by saying "hey, I'm voting for XY, because our innocent dead people think it's wise too").

Whatever, I see it is really complicated on second sight, but... but I'd still be up for setting that up. Where there's the will, there's a way. That before the QT vote, people would have to pick a most likely vote.

Anyway, now I am probably shutting myself down for a while, but I'll be back in some hours, when hopefully also more people will have posted!

EDIT: x-ed with Pitch and Brinniel

[Galadriel55]

Originally Posted by Boromir88

Then again, again, when has anything gone according to plan? We plan, and plan, and plan. Then 30 minutes before we're forced to decide we start a new plan and all hell breaks loose.

Is this you still in character, or are you just spreading panic about schemes that haven't happened yet? The Phantom is not playing, remember.

Originally Posted by Pitchwife

OK, let's suppose that, say, an hour before DL there's 3 votes for an innocent, 2 for a wolf and 2 for another innocent. If the last to be tied gets quarantined, the wolves need to be on their toes till the last minute to make sure it's not one of them. If it's the first to be tied, they can spread their votes as they like and the first innocent will still be eliminated.

So are you saying that it's safer to do wolf-on-wolf votes in that scenario, because the first innocent got 3 votes first? Except that the wolf has to guarantee that he is the last one voting, otherwise suddenly his wolf-on-wolf vote can actually tip the balance of votes in favour of his packmate. So I still don't get what the wolf advantage is. Unless it's that if a wolf is spotted late in the Day when someone else already got a bunch of votes, there is theoretically more chances of them surviving till the next Day. Is that what you're getting at?

Originally Posted by Legate of Amon Lanc

That's exactly what I meant. If you meant it only as a "soft version of no vote", then no, that is no better than no vote, because then Wolves could straightaway lie and nobody would care.

Ah, gotcha. That kind of makes sense.

Originally Posted by Legate

Well whatever. I just wanted to set rather the latest possible time (so people DO have time to think - especially toDay, if I said that it would be halfway through the Day, some people may not have even posted yet), but before the QT vote would come through (as that could further shuffle it - but most importantly, the WWs couldn't just jump on a bandwagon created by the QT by saying "hey, I'm voting for XY, because our innocent dead people think it's wise too").

Speaking of the Cuties, what was the final ruling on when their vote comes in?


ETA: yeeeek! We're just over 2 hours in, and on the second page already!

[Nogrod]

Originally Posted by G55

Speaking of the Cuties, what was the final ruling on when their vote comes in?

Two hours before the Deadline aka. 7PM GMT/UTC.

[THE Ka]

Originally Posted by Legate

Nobody said anything about wasting a day, or else I have grossly misread it!

I know it's been awhile since I've played, but has there seriously been a game with a no-vote day?

Also would that make it far too easy for WW to hide when the evidence can be spread across the entire day's worth of posts, instead of the instrumented panic that usually occurs before deadline?

Force them to fabricate their accusations of others - because then they will be more easily caught on lying. Because unlike all the other villagers, they would have to lie.

Rushed villagers may not purposefully lie to distract, but if someone is anxious and doesn't have much evidence they might try to prove themselves by stretching the truth quite a lot (grabbing at straws). Sort of the same way that forced confessions are often useless. There is the unfortunate possibility we could end up with a different kind of bandwagon, not by votes for a player, but a lot of bunk confessionals that sound similar except for a few minor details changed to make it more personable.

I could see WWs having quite some fun with that, either the more vocal ones doing the persecuting and the more conservative echoing villagers. Given that we know their number, there is some room for them to go for the classic strategy of going after one another as a way to throw off villagers.

Just a thought I had:

Originally Posted by Nog

If there is a tie of votes in the Quarantine Thread, the one who has been quarantined the latest - and has voted for one of the tied candidates - has the final say (aka. her vote counts practically as two).

Let's say the latest in the QT thread is a wolf and by some way this happens where there is a tie. The wolf is obviously going to know who their compatriots are, could they throw the vote from the GT?
It would take a bit of finagling and if there is a mix of roles in QT obviously the villagers would know and outvote anything the wolf is trying to suggest. If successful even once it could be the evening of odds they want...

We also have the 'non-logical' hunter role in game this time:

If the Hunter is voted to be quarantined at the end of a Day, he will take with him anyone he has chosen, whoever that is.

This is an interesting mechanic, because it does make even a 'bad vote' more complicated. If they take a villager, then there is at least more votes in their favour in the QT. If it's a wolf, sure it removes them from the GT, but if there's another wolf already in the QT it could lead them to trying alternate attempts to steal a vote.
It would be interesting if wolves in QT didn't vote together, however. Granted the number in QT would be significantly smaller than in the GT to try and use the 'spread suspicion by voting for one another' tactic, but it would make you pause and wonder why.

[Inziladun]

Originally Posted by THE Ka

Rushed villagers may not purposefully lie to distract, but if someone is anxious and doesn't have much evidence they might try to prove themselves by stretching the truth quite a lot (grabbing at straws). Sort of the same way that forced confessions are often useless. There is the unfortunate possibility we could end up with a different kind of bandwagon, not by votes for a player, but a lot of bunk confessionals that sound similar except for a few minor details changed to make it more personable.

Sense, this.

Originally Posted by THE Ka

I could see WWs having quite some fun with that, either the more vocal ones doing the persecuting and the more conservative echoing villagers. Given that we know their number, there is some room for them to go for the classic strategy of going after one another as a way to throw off villagers.

This as well.

[Legate of Amon Lanc]

Originally Posted by Inziladun

Don't many do this anyway, as in saying whom they suspect and might vote for? And those who don't, voting quickly and seemingly haphazardly, are rightly questioned.

Originally Posted by Pitchwife

OK, Legate, let me ask you: What exactly do we have to gain from the kind of fake vote you're suggesting?
If it is just that, a fake vote with no real lynch as per G55, we've effectively wasted a day, nobody has to fear the consequences of their vote because without a lynch, we won't know whether they voted for an innoent or a wolf, and the wolves can go wolf-on-wolf to their hearts' content witrh no danger to any of them.
If it's just that people announce beforehand whom they are planning to vote, and the vote takes place later, and we compare what people said before to how they actually voted, how is this different from what we usually do?

Nobody said anything about wasting a day, or else I have grossly misread it!

The idea is this: to make people actually commit and say, by timestamp XX:YY, "I would vote for person A".

Yes, people do that. But usually, people fall into multiple categories. Some people hardly say anything about whom they would actually vote until DL. Some people have like three people they have in the "I could vote" category. That is usually a good strategy for the WWs, who then pick from their three in the last minute, ideally based on which bandwagons exist and what is convenient. The main purpose of the whole thing would be, as I said, to force the WW's hand a bit more than it is. Kind of kick people (especially WWs) into action. Force them to fabricate their accusations of others - because then they will be more easily caught on lying. Because unlike all the other villagers, they would have to lie.

Well, I thought it was a nice idea, at least. It may not be so groundbreaking. But I'd still see some merit in it.

EDIT: x-ed with G55, Lhuna and Boro

[Inziladun]

Originally Posted by Legate of Amon Lanc

Some people hardly say anything about whom they would actually vote until DL. Some people have like three people they have in the "I could vote" category. That is usually a good strategy for the WWs, who then pick from their three in the last minute, ideally based on which bandwagons exist and what is convenient. The main purpose of the whole thing would be, as I said, to force the WW's hand a bit more than it is. Kind of kick people (especially WWs) into action. Force them to fabricate their accusations of others - because then they will be more easily caught on lying. Because unlike all the other villagers, they would have to lie.

Seems that it could be a double-edged sword though; those of evil bent will have a good idea of which way the wind is blowing and plan accordingly.

[Kath]

Well, two pages by this time isn't as bad as I thought it might be! This working from home malarkey means I can actually get on here at a normal time as well and have time to read everything instead of frantically skimming through it all in the last few hours. Whether that will be of any help though remains to be seen!

Caveat to that: I'm doing this amidst school work so I started at 9:45 and will simply keep refreshing as I go. Goodness only knows what time it will be when it gets posted!

I have just been reading through the rules post on the discussion thread as I saw there had been some questions about particular rules on the way through. There are some really intriguing bits!

Originally Posted by Nogrod

There is a kind of a secondary victory condition as well. If the Villagers manage to keep Lalaith safe, they get a lot of credit and can prize themselves for keeping up the cause of beauty and goodness in this dark and evil world. This concerns the QT especially as players there already know their characters and should be more concerned also about that side of the story.

Am I right that the Innocent Child and Lalaith are the same role? I don't think I've played with that role before. Also I love the idea of a secondary story going on behind the scenes.

There's been some talk about Cobbler-identifying along the way as well. But the rules state that the Cobbler counts for the Innocent tally, so picking them out over finding wolves doesn't really help matters. I recall games where knowing someone was the Cobbler was a relief because at least you could then just ignore the crazy, though!

Oh, I should read before writing. The Innocent Child = Urwen/Lalaith.

Right, onto the actual game thread.

Ach, I can't remember how you quote within a quote. Like, have two people's posts in one. This will look messy, sorry.

Originally Posted by Lommy

What, are you suggesting we commit mass suicide? A very... cobbleresque suggestion

Originally Posted by G55

Well... I suppose, technically, if we all learn from RL examples and willingly quarantine ourselves *before* we get sick - i.e. if we all vote ourselves - the only people not to do so will be the baddies, and then Day 2 will be a breeze. Oh lord.


Aaaaand cue discussion about a no-vote Day 1!

So, Lommy's comment came from a joke of Legate's, and then G55's comment seems to be just a continuation of the same. But then, there's no conversation about it other than Legate saying he is glad there are no double lynches. In fact it's G55 that brings it up again.

Originally Posted by G55

Lol. Though this made me think: why didn't the No Lynch debate ever bring up fake votes? Like each person says who they would vote for, but not actually vote. So you have a tally, but no lynch.

I don't really understand the concept. If everyone said who they would vote for, but there's no lynch and no role reveal, then the votes don't tell anything. Also the lynch is the only way of taking a wolf down unless the Hunter is targeted at Night and has picked a wolf.

Originally Posted by Legate

Hey, THAT is actually a pretty good idea. Because seriously. It would kinda force the Wolves' hands (or tongues). I like that. I mean people can of course flip-flop later, but it isn't easy. I like it. I wholeheartedly second it. Let's do this!

Legate then seems quite keen on the idea! But I can't work out whether he means that people should say their votes and then actually vote, because of where he says about flip-flopping here, which suggests he means they could change their minds between stating who they would vote for and then actually voting. Rather than saying who you would vote for but then not voting. If the former, that strikes me as just the same as what people normally do, where they make a list or put forward an idea of who they might vote for a while before the deadline - which I think most people tend to do. If the latter ... it still makes no sense.

So Pitch, Lottie, Inzil, Brinn (Brinn quite vociferously!) are firmly against the no lynch. And Pitch seems to feel Legate is the instigator of it, but really I feel that honour goes to G55. I think I'm reading Legate's comments as still with a real vote, whereas G55's suggest no actual vote. And then G55 adds to that focus on Legate.

Originally Posted by G55

Ok, cobbler much? Even I don't like my idea with so much enthusiasm. I was mainly kinda curious if that tack has ever been tried - and why not, cause it's marginally less bad than the No Votes At All camp.

So was G55 just putting the idea out there to see who would bite? She specifically states here (post 38 - I cannot work out this quoting thing) that she isn't in favour of her own idea. Now, Day 1 discussion can be tough. I mean look, it's her idea that's meant I can really write anything, so on the one hand this is brilliant. It's got people talking, it means there's something to say! But she does seem to be backing away from it quite sharply.

Originally Posted by Boro

Then again, again, when has anything gone according to plan? We plan, and plan, and plan. Then 30 minutes before we're forced to decide we start a new plan and all hell breaks loose.

Boro arrives with a rather dire but entirely accurate prediction of the future.

Yeah, see looking at Legate's post 41 it really seems like he was saying to state a vote but then to also make a vote in the Day. I still think that's pretty much what we do anyway, and so this doesn't really stand out to me as anything.

Originally Posted by Pitch

OK, let's suppose that, say, an hour before DL there's 3 votes for an innocent, 2 for a wolf and 2 for another innocent. If the last to be tied gets quarantined, the wolves need to be on their toes till the last minute to make sure it's not one of them. If it's the first to be tied, they can spread their votes as they like and the first innocent will still be eliminated.

A conversation about when to vote led to this. The rules said it is the first to be tied. I don't think this means the wolves can be entirely relaxed about it, as unless all the innocents had voted before all the wolves there is always the chance of things changing. But any voting, even spread voting, will at least then give everyone someone to work with the following day.

See and then Boro's at it with 'this fake-voting plan of Legate's'. But it wasn't! It was G55's! Pitch and Boro seem to have been thrown by this. I mean, ok, Legate made it into a plan as such, but it wasn't his idea in the first place.

Originally Posted by THE Ka

Let's say the latest in the QT thread is a wolf and by some way this happens where there is a tie. The wolf is obviously going to know who their compatriots are, could they throw the vote from the GT?
It would take a bit of finagling and if there is a mix of roles in QT obviously the villagers would know and outvote anything the wolf is trying to suggest. If successful even once it could be the evening of odds they want...

Interesting. Does this suggest a wolf ending up in the QT early on could be an advantage to the wolves? Because if they were there the first QT day they could control the vote? I suppose after that they're pretty much useless, though. Why do I feel like if Nilp was here he'd jump at the chance to self-vote and try it out?

Originally Posted by Mac

I find it very odd how very enthusiastic Legate is about this. My immediate thought was the one that Gala had, too: very cobblerish. A wolf wouldn't stick their head out that far, and one would expect an innocent person to be a bit more measured in their response, weighing pros and cons. Not saying a wolf can't fake a careful approach, of course.

Mac, too. I'm starting to think maybe it's me reading this wrong, but that's why I do posts like this. I don't know if it helps other people, but for myself I'm telling the story of the Day, because I simply can't keep track of things otherwise. And it's telling me G55 started this thing off, not Legate. And I still think Legate was saying state a vote, make a vote, which still seems normal.

I love how Shasta's turned up and basically done what was being proposed anyway!

I'd say the biggest problem with this whole discussion was the use of the phrase: fake vote. Why on earth didn't they get called: planned votes?

And then, two people (Rikae and Brinn) make quick suspicion lists. Which is why I don't think the discussion really needed to happen anyway. People do this naturally. I suppose there's the odd person who appears, throws a vote out of seemingly nowhere and then disappears - but I suspect they wouldn't last too long then anyway!

Ah, Eonwe has the same gist of the whole thing as I do. It's a bit of a relief to have someone else see it the same way by this point! And Hui, although he seems to be suggesting a Pitch-Legate wolf duo as well.

Cobbler discussion came up again. I can't work this out with my shoddy maths. So, the Cobbler counts for the innocents, but if the Cobbler ends up in the QT and their role is known, and the role of any wolves in the QT is also known, does that then advantage the wolves in terms of numbers and help them control the vote - because they all know who each other is even if they can't communicate and so would all just vote the same if that would beat/tie the vote. I was just trying to work out whether trying to keep them in the Game Thread would be a better option, because at least here they don't know who the wolves are. But then their role wouldn't be confirmed either. Ugh.

Ooh! The end. Finished at post 79 before I went bolding in case I cross.

Ok. Well, I didn't like the mis-reading of what happened early on with that voting discussion, but I don't know whether it was confused or purposeful on behalf of those who seemed to really focus on Legate as the ringleader: Pitch, Mac, Boro. I think G55 backing away from it and then seeming like she didn't know where Legate was coming from was odd.

Sorry about the length. I'll be back sporadically. Given this took an hour and a half (!!) don't expect hundreds of posts.

[Macalaure]

People are writing a crazy amount of crazy long posts on Day1 already. We need to start quarantining some of y'all! Nothing but quotes and one-liners for you!

Originally Posted by Rikae

and Inzil and Mac have suggested he's infected?

Waitawhat? I only said he looked like a cobbler.

Originally Posted by Huin

It really struck me how strongly Pitch seemed to be pinning the no-vote concept on Legate, even though G55 had originally proposed it

This I found odd, too.

Originally Posted by Boro

I'm not a list maker

*proceeds to write up two big lists just one page later*

Originally Posted by Huin

I'm seeing a lot of people (Rikae, Legate, slightly Boro) making comments that Macalaure looks suspicious,

I do seem to have a habit of rubbing people wrong on Day1. I swear I don't do it on purpose! I admit it amuses me greatly when it happens though.

Originally Posted by Legate

Macalaure's first post was fishy as Angband (erm... in the future maybe), meaning, subtly pointing fingers while not accusing straightforwardly. Mesa not like this at all.

You want straightforward accusations one page into Day1??

Originally Posted by Legate

subtly point fingers at the "misinterpreters" like Pitch, Mac, then also G55 etc.

I find it funny how Legate was all reasonable and discuss-the-matter originally, and now he goes after all the people who cast that little bit of shadow on him.

Originally Posted by Boro

I get a distinct sense that I always want to lynch Inzil Day 1. Do you get that too?

I do get such cravings, too. I try to give him the benefit of the doubt every time, but sometimes he makes it hard for me. I mean:

Originally Posted by Inzil

Hmm. Perhaps.

This is about the most uncommitted thing I've ever read.



(Also, that feeling when the Downs won't let you post four smileys and you have to Sophie's choice one of them...)

[Inziladun]

Originally Posted by Macalaure

I do seem to have a habit of rubbing people wrong on Day1. I swear I don't do it on purpose! I admit it amuses me greatly when it happens though.

Ditto. No matter what side I'm on I get early suspicion. I'd expect no less.

Originally Posted by Macalaure

You want straightforward accusations one page into Day1??

Of course! Then there's more reason to bandwaggon the accuser!

Originally Posted by Macalaure

I find iI do get such cravings, too. I try to give him the benefit of the doubt every time, but sometimes he makes it hard for me. I mean:This is about the most uncommitted thing I've ever read.

Again, same. My natural inclination always says you have diabolical intentions, and holding them down in lieu of hard evidence is second nature.

x/d with Pitch

[Lalaith]

Still reading. As far as I can see everyone has now posted?

I feel very confused about the point of this false deadline business. Is that an idea just for toDay or a more general thing? Either way, Mac is right that we can't get/expect 100% turnout on false deadlines because of people having genuine RL commitments, and then of course we will have wolves avoiding the false deadline, by claiming they were busy elsewhere.

One thing I'm looking out for. With five wolves about, I suspect some of them will be picking fights with each other - they can afford to do some showboaty bickering to divert attention from potential allegiances.

What in Arda is Lhuna doing? Honouring family traditions?

[Kath]

Originally Posted by Rikae

When it comes to single top suspects vs lists, both have their pros and cons and leave material to analyze later on. Me, I like lists. Here's one, just to get the ball rolling:

Pitchwife
G55
Macalaure

Originally Posted by Legate

But you didn't indicate what is that a list of. Of what? Top suspects?

I read this as Rikae saying one suspect vs suspect list and then going for the list option. So I'm assuming this was a list of current suspects.

Originally Posted by Kitanna

Because while I see how fake voting can help, clever baddies will find a way to exploit it.
A backpedaling innocent is going to do everything they can to stay alive for the good of the village and they're probably going to look guilty in their attempts. It just takes a few well-placed, persuasive posts to get a baffled innocent lynched.

Agreed. An innocent trying to change their mind, especially if prone to getting cross when defensive, is likely to end up as cannon fodder.

In a move so reminiscent of Lommy I almost had to check to make sure it wasn't her, Mr 'I don't do lists' Boro then immediately comes out with hundreds. Ok, two, but still.

Originally Posted by Lommy

That's certainly a fair point. I mean whenever I'm a wolf I'm certainly trying to roleplay innocent me to a degree, and if you have established trademark quirks, it helps to follow those. So anyone sounding like a parody of their usual self is worth looking at.

I think it will be really interesting to see how those who are relative newbies to these games see the old-timers. Will they pick up on supposed traits/quirks or have we actually changed as players over time without realising? An end of game discussion on that will be fascinating!

Originally Posted by Pitch

Mac, really? You find it odd how I pinned the no-vote stuff on Legate, when earlier you yourself found it just as odd how enthusiastic he was about it? Now that I find odd! *ping*

A Pitch vs Mac fight seems to be brewing ...

Lhuna!! We are Nilp-less and STILL we have been Nilp'ed!

By the way, I'm assuming all votes are final? I'm sure I've played in games where they can be taken back but am assuming not this one?

[Boromir88]

Ok, they're not lists. See them as tabs...groups of tabs. Any attempt of mental lists scrambled me up so to try organizing I did groups, not lists.

If the DL was now I would vote for...

++In *No stop it.* ++Legate

Excluding anything I said myself so far, I concur with this point the most:

Why did I pressure Legate rather than G55 re the fake votes? The difference between

1) G55 throwing out an idea to stir up a discussion, and

2) Legate picking it up and going "Oh yes that's a good idea let's totally do that!", when I thought it was a) not helpful and b) needlessly overcomplicating things. But my last note on him, on his reply to G55 in #44, was 'actually sensible?'~Pitch

There is a difference between the two.

I find it very odd how very enthusiastic Legate is about this. My immediate thought was the one that Gala had, too: very cobblerish. A wolf wouldn't stick their head out that far, and one would expect an innocent person to be a bit more measured in their response, weighing pros and cons. Not saying a wolf can't fake a careful approach, of course.~Mac

What you must ask though is not "would a wolf stick their head out that early?" but would a Legate-wolf do it? With a pack of 5 there's higher incentive to start out bolder. Because it means you have 4 companions who can throw their weight around and steer it in favor or opposed to Legate depending on how the winds go. Where the rest of us rely only on ourselves.

Edit: Added "Mac" to the 2nd quote, to clarify that it was from him.

[Macalaure]

Originally Posted by Boromir88

Ok, they're not lists. See them as tabs...groups of tabs. Any attempt of mental lists scrambled me up so to try organizing I did groups, not lists.

If it looks like a duck and quacks like a duck... you know

Originally Posted by Boro

What you must ask though is not "would a wolf stick their head out that early?" but would a Legate-wolf do it? With a pack of 5 there's higher incentive to start out bolder. Because it means you have 4 companions who can throw their weight around and steer it in favor or opposed to Legate depending on how the winds go. Where the rest of us rely only on ourselves.

I highly doubt the pack would come out in force and steer the wheel only to keep one packmember from fenrisizing themselves. Chances are that one of them will bite the dust at some point, and then people will look at their old posts. Such Day1 behavior can sink the wolfship on a later day.

The difference between number of innocents and number of wolves determines how many days we will play. Number of days vs. number of wolves to be lynched. The ratio is more important than the actual pack size.

Originally Posted by Loslote

I've been going back and forth on who I think looks most wolf-like of those three, too.

This is what I mean. I can feel a race between Pitch, G55, and Legate coming up, while the wolves are snickering in the background.

I'm not even saying that there isn't a wolf among them - it's possible - but I don't like the way this is gaining momentum.

Originally Posted by Huin

I'd like to hear from some of the people who think Macalaure is dodgy

Translation: "I'm trying to frame an innocent but I don't want to get my own hands dirty, can someone help me out?"

Originally Posted by Rikae

He does love playing as a wolf, but I think he also enjoys looking sinister as an innocent.

Actually, I usually get super nervous as a wolf and then it shows and then I die. The second part is true though.

[Legate of Amon Lanc]

Reading and writing as I go... note: the beginning of this is like three hours old. Been checking and typing in between work whenever I had time.

Originally Posted by Kitanna

I read this as "maybe veer away from lists" and just say you're going to commit to one person, even if you don't vote that way. I see where you're coming from as the lists help wolves form bandwagons and this will force them to really push their accusations. Except this will force innocents to do the same, with the same bloody lynching result. It's early and maybe I'm reading all this wrong, but this idea seems as likely to backfire as to succeed.

Well, as you see, I just made a list myself. Anyway, the idea was people could do whatever they want, even make lists (I like lists), but then, when the clock strikes, they would have to say "ok and out of my list, I actually pick THIS ONE".

The main benefit of this would be that we could then see who would be "lynched" under such circumstances - and then that could be helpful in tracing the Wolves. Because in "real" voting, WWs are calculating to save their mates and so on. In "dry run", it isn't so clear, and then they may be a bit at loss as to what to do. Would they cast their "pseudo-vote" to "save" their packmate even if it is only a dry run? But what if then the real vote happens and the situation goes the same way and they have to change their vote? They need to provide an explanation. It may draw eyes. Etc etc. THAT was the chief merit behind the theory that was discussed so lengthily here.

Anyway, on another note, Kitanna sorta made my red lights flash now, too.

Originally Posted by Kitanna

Not helpful whatsoever? I dunno, the need to point out "this wasn't helpful" makes me raise my eyebrows. We already had some posts and discussions going when you chimed in and it just seems suspicious you felt the need to point out you had nothing to add at the time. "Look at me, I'm definitely innocent because I haven't said anything of real merit."

I sorta don't like the way Kitanna points fingers at Lhuna here. Yes, she may have just happened to make that one random observation, but the way it goes...

And the whole "oh I don't know if we should do this or that..." is kinda, I don't know. I simply get "fake vibe" here. Like she was not willing to commit until she learns where the wind blows. (Wind. Get it? *dun dun dun dun* -Note: once again, no relation to Inziladun whatsoever)

Originally Posted by Inziladun

But wasn't that the purported point of the "fake" vote: to keep last-ditch voting down?

Yes, but this was already said with the knowledge that this was probably not happening, plus anyway, I still expect people to vote in the last twenty minutes, with or without any "voting dry run". And the votes would change, very likely, in the last few hours, not the least because of people's reactions to the "results" of the dry-run voting (or would they? That's precisely the thing we would not know without trying it first).

Originally Posted by Lalaith

Oof. Three pages of posts already. Five wolves in there somewhere causing chaos, with a cobbler urging them on.
I'd better get reading....

That was as fishy first post as they go. "Everyone is a Wolf, hint hint not me."

Originally Posted by Huinesoron

As far as I can see, most of it is agreement with and slight expansion on what other people had said; is that what you meant by 'fishy as Angband', Legate? You talk about pointing fingers, but other than the explicit point at Galadriel55, it all looks like fairly general musing on wolves.

Pointing fingers "under one's breath", i.e. saying that something is questionable while mentioning a name at the same time, so the reader can connect them themselves while the original poster doesn't need to be perceived as the one who said it in the first place, is one of classic Wolf-tactics, one I am always more inclined to look for.

Originally Posted by Kitanna

*side eyes both* Orchestrated wolf action? I suppose not likely, but the more I read of G55 the more I raise my eyebrows.
She distanced herself from her own idea, was quick to challenge Legate when he found the merit in it, and has been fairly vocal throughout. And yet, when I try to think of anything detailed she said, I draw a blank. She's been helpful and has urged on discussion and I'm finding her a little too helpful.

On the one hand G55 set something up and waited for an innocent to take the bait and then distanced herself the moment it fell under scrutiny. Her move is a bold one for a Day 1 ploy to try to bandwagon an innocent. Bold and fairly early in the Day.
On the other hand wolfPitch sees an idea that is probably doomed to fail. He picks the second person to pick it up and doesn't really cast suspicion on the actual creator. Pitch then sets up Legate for trouble.
In the whole fake vote debate, I am leaning toward trusting Legate over G55 who first suggested it and Pitch who was so vocal in disputing it.

This sounds like a Wolf making up a random accusation if I have ever seen one. As in, the type of behaviour a Wolf might have if they are like "I need to find someone to suspect on Day 1, oh, here's some two players saying something, I can latch onto that". That sort of thing for a Wolf who would not be in the thick of things, but would want to just quietly pursue some case in their own little corner.

Also because I don't personally believe that it was an attempt to "set me up", or not in the way people seem to be latching on to presenting it. I think Pitch quite rightfully saw me as expanding on the idea while when G55 mentioned it, it was really just a random remark. I find it much more likely that someone picked on the "this was an attempt to set Legate up" notion to raise suspicion about those who did.

I will reread Kitanna's posts a bit, but she would likely be my "fake vote" toDay, at least (or to put it another way, if I was forced to vote right now).

Originally Posted by Pitchwife

Mac, really? You find it odd how I pinned the no-vote stuff on Legate, when earlier you yourself found it just as odd how enthusiastic he was about it? Now that I find odd! *ping*

Maybe I shouldn't, but I just find this amusing

Originally Posted by Boromir88

It's like Gandalf versus the Balrog to use that analogy. To me, he's got a powerful and deserved reputation. I'll go for it, but I don't charge head on, because I know I won't come out the same person.

Man, can I ship ya folks? (Sorry. Lommy taught me that kind of vocabulary.)

Originally Posted by Lhunardawen

You mean like this?

++NILPAURIO-- I mean

++LHUNARDAWEN

Seriously!!! That's about the most unhelpful thing ever!!! I mean, I understand you are substituting Nilp, but I'm with Kant on this one. You shouldn't make the example of doing something that might corrupt others to do the same!

x-ed with plenty probably, I'm still in haphazard schedule on when I am around and when not.

EDIT: x-ed basically since the abovequoted post. Page 4, terrifying. (Although again, with the size of the village, could be worse.)

[Rikae]

Originally Posted by Legate of Amon Lanc

Man, can I ship ya folks? (Sorry. Lommy taught me that kind of vocabulary.)

I was wondering if I should worry about the way Boro was buttering Mac up ...

[Thinlómien]

Originally Posted by Huinesoron

I feel like there's a lot of people who managed to 'contribute' by just talking about no-votes.

You've got to start the discussion from somewhere. I would, however, side eye everyone whose only contribution toDay will boil down to discussing the no-votes.

Originally Posted by Huinesoron

I totally understand that kind of thought process (I tend towards parenthetical irrelevancies myself), but I'm also wondering whether, for what is after all a 'first game back' for most of you, there's an element of playing into your** own legend: deliberately heightening your 'trademarks' to cover up for any suspicious behaviour.

**'Your' here indicates a general thought, not specifically about Thinlomien; I don't know half of you half as well as I should like, and certainly not well enough to know who's acting 'as expected'.

That's certainly a fair point. I mean whenever I'm a wolf I'm certainly trying to roleplay innocent me to a degree, and if you have established trademark quirks, it helps to follow those. So anyone sounding like a parody of their usual self is worth looking at.

[Huinesoron]

Originally Posted by Boromir88

Huinesoron - newer player. Can't peg him into an expected style. Previously, appeared to be the sort who wants to get his hands in there and be involved in everything.

Yeah, 'be involved in everything' kind of sums me up.

I'm seeing a lot of people (Rikae, Legate, slightly Boro) making comments that Macalaure looks suspicious, and that worries me because he didn't ping any of my bells at all. So far as I can see this is his only post:

Originally Posted by Macalaure

Ah, Day 1. Where all we can do is make up reasons out of thin air.

*sniffs*

Ugh, nah. The air over Dor-lomin isn't what it used to be. And here people say that the air would be cleaner if everybody stayed in their village.

Anyway.

Fakes votes, eh?

If we mean fake votes instead of real ones, to avoid a Day1 lynch, I don't see the usefulness in that. Since those votes lack any consequence, it's the easiest thing for wolves to throw their votes at whoever, or wolf-on-wolf without the risk that comes with it.

If we mean a deadline before the deadline. Really? What about the people with tighter schedules. We can't expect everybody to be available for two deadlines.

Worse, the day after people will be too quick to jump on those who changed their mind from one deadline to the next. Wolves, on the other hand, lacking conscience, will have a very easy time showing consistency.

I find it very odd how very enthusiastic Legate is about this. My immediate thought was the one that Gala had, too: very cobblerish. A wolf wouldn't stick their head out that far, and one would expect an innocent person to be a bit more measured in their response, weighing pros and cons. Not saying a wolf can't fake a careful approach, of course.

As far as I can see, most of it is agreement with and slight expansion on what other people had said; is that what you meant by 'fishy as Angband', Legate? You talk about pointing fingers, but other than the explicit point at Galadriel55, it all looks like fairly general musing on wolves.

I guess I'm just feeling wary about how unsupported some of these suspicions seem.

~

Looking back over my own earlier suspects, Lommy seems to have 'calmed down' a bit (if that's the term; eased off, maybe?), which could back up the idea that her early posts were basically banter. I don't think G55 and - especially - Pitch have been back on, so I'm in the More Data Required stage there.

hS

(Crossed with Boro's (first?) 'tabs' post.)

[Boromir88]

Originally Posted by Huinesoron

Yeah, 'be involved in everything' kind of sums me up.

I'm seeing a lot of people (Rikae, Legate, slightly Boro) making comments that Macalaure looks suspicious, and that worries me because he didn't ping any of my bells at all. So far as I can see this is his only post:

Huh, interesting. The goal in my post you're referencing wasn't to announce any suspicions. I don't think I've given any suspicions yet. Is that suspicious? Maybe some would say it is, but I did it as a therapeutic exercise. All these people coming back jumbled my head to be filled with "What does Lommy do? What does Greenie do?...etc. It was to "put it all down on paper" as they say and not announce suspicions.

One has to also analyze themselves when trying to analyze others. I invite anyone to chime in on me. Here's an analysis on myself:

At the heart, I'm combative. I like to be a thorn. Sometimes I end up a thorn in people's pinky fingers, sometimes their kneecaps, sometimes a thorn in their eyes, but I hope to be a thorn in their side. I charge straight towards confrontation with just about anyone and everyone....except Mac. Which was my point on him. It's my nature to be combative and I will be a thorn in Mac's sides if there's warrant for it. There's always that hesitation that I don't get when I confront anyone else.

It's like Gandalf versus the Balrog to use that analogy. To me, he's got a powerful and deserved reputation. I'll go for it, but I don't charge head on, because I know I won't come out the same person.

Edit: Crossed with Pitch twice and Inzil

[Boromir88]

Gosh I missed this and echo the ensuing crazy that will take place in the cross postings and flurry voting.

I want all working theories to the table, no matter how absurd, or risky, or impossible as they might seem.

Is it even too late to go into complete isolation? Can we all just go home and take an oath to keep to ourselves? Large gatherings in an outbreak just seems completely the opposite of the right thing to do.

Then again with a deadly infection such as this, the only way to be rid of it is to kill it at the source. Healing can't take place until the source is removed and the wound sterilized. Is burning the dead body the proper thing to do? I've never been quite good at understanding the correct method of disposing the bodies of the infected. Lynching doesn't seem to be enough.

Then again, again, when has anything gone according to plan? We plan, and plan, and plan. Then 30 minutes before we're forced to decide we start a new plan and all hell breaks loose.

Edit bunch of crossposting

[Brinniel]

Originally Posted by Boromir88

Is it even too late to go into complete isolation? Can we all just go home and take an oath to keep to ourselves? Large gatherings in an outbreak just seems completely the opposite of the right thing to do.

Yes, it seems that a large gathering is not the brightest idea, but I'm afraid it may be too late to simply go home. I hear keeping a six foot distance helps, so stand back a little further away from me, why don't you.

Originally Posted by Boro

Then again, again, when has anything gone according to plan? We plan, and plan, and plan. Then 30 minutes before we're forced to decide we start a new plan and all hell breaks loose.

True, true. Things never do seem to go according to plan around here. And then the ones who don't follow the plan become lynch fodder the next Day and more often than not turn out to be innocent.

[Eönwë]

Catching up and checking in briefly:

I didn't like the 'fake vote' idea earlier and I'm glad it seems to have been rejected by the village overall.

I'm not sure what this means for those who discussed it early on though. G55, the original suggester, has since distanced herself from the idea, but whether this is an innocent realizing the problems with their idea vs. a bold wolf realizing that people aren't buying a bad idea remains to be seen.

On my initial read I was under the impression that Legate was supporting the idea of a fake vote with no real vote, but now, rereading the relevant post as I write this, it seems pretty clear that he was supporting the idea of a fake vote followed by a real vote rather than just a fake vote (either expanding upon on or through misinterpretation of G55's idea), which, while I disagree with the idea, makes me feel a little better about him.

Originally Posted by Legate of Amon Lanc

Hey, THAT is actually a pretty good idea. Because seriously. It would kinda force the Wolves' hands (or tongues). I like that. I mean people can of course flip-flop later, but it isn't easy. I like it. I wholeheartedly second it. Let's do this!

(Seriously, it seems to me like something that should have come up like, years ago? What's wrong with people?)

On the other hand, I think I agree with Zil, Pitch, and others later in the thread that this proposal, such an idea doesn't change much, and just adds more complications without giving us much more to go on (and as Mac and Brinn mention, may be a problem based on timetables/time zones, which is either unfair or gives the infected an excuse), so maybe Legate isn't off the hook after all.


So far, I like THE Ka and Lommy. The fact that Brinn feels the same way (or at least claims to) makes me unsure about whether to trust her too or doubt my lack of suspicions about those two.


Ok, going to sleep now. Will be back with more later.

[Eönwë]

Also, can we get an official confirmation from Nog about what the final decision is about whether wolves can PM each other within quarantine?

[Nogrod]

Originally Posted by Eönwë

Also, can we get an official confirmation from Nog about what the final decision is about whether wolves can PM each other within quarantine?

Yes you can.

Yes they can.

[Huinesoron]

And I'm back. Am I the first person to go away and return? No, I see G55 got there first.

Reading through the thread, I was scribbling down names to see who had showed up, and started to worry I was alphabetically first on the list. :O I was very glad when Brinniel and Boromir88 showed up, I can tell you.

Originally Posted by Inziladun

Hmm?

It took about five minutes for the thread to load for me after Deadline; I was wondering if we'd managed to overload the Downs. That was all.

Right, I promised to look over the thread so far, didn't I?

A lot has already been said about the no-vote idea, but something that jumped out at me that doesn't seem to have been brought back up is this comment by Pitchwife:

Originally Posted by Pitchwife

OK, Legate, let me ask you: What exactly do we have to gain from the kind of fake vote you're suggesting?
If it is just that, a fake vote with no real lynch as per G55, we've effectively wasted a day[...]
This strikes me as a pseudo-useful suggestion/discussion. *ping*

It really struck me how strongly Pitch seemed to be pinning the no-vote concept on Legate, even though G55 had originally proposed it and (I think) had been the main proponent up to that point. I wondered whether this might be WolfPitch (PitchFector?) trying to put the heat on Legate specifically, but why not let it stay on G55? I think someone suggested that G55's backdown could be a wolf trying to pull away from a bad idea, which could mean WolfPitch was protecting GaladriWolf, but spotting two wolves at once seems a bit much for Day 1.

Or does it? On rethinking, catching wolves by their interactions with each other doesn't seem too far-fetched?

Coming away from that discussion (I feel like Eonwe's opening post covered the actual idea fairly well), one person I've not seen much discussion of who really stuck out to me was Thinlomien. I know it's opening posts, and they tend to be a bit contentless, but this one really grabbed me:

Originally Posted by Thinlómien

I'm predicting a somewhat chaotic game, with this large a village and deadline that should work for most of us. (Personally I'm probably almost always going to be around the dl because it's midnight in my time zone and I'm a temporarily unemployed night owl.) Like I'm imanining multiple crossposted votes in the minutes before deadline. I wanted to suggest avoiding this by consciously trying to spread the vote a little, but then again, the last minute flurry can be pretty telling afterwards. But in case someone is wondering, I'm not saying that toDay should amount into a shot in the dark if we can avoid it. I'm still staunchly in camp "Day1 can and does matter" and I'm watching you all.

Also once we have the quarantine let's just be mindful not to focus too much on speculating about that, right? Unless the first person who goes there is a wolf, it would be pretty funny to see how a known dead wolf would vote!

Which almost led me to say "hey dudes, let's lynch a wolf toDay, that would be a really good idea"... well.... surprise.

"It's all going to be CHAOS, here's why we both should and shouldn't spread the vote, ignore the (presumably majority-innocent) QT, and I'm totally not going to say we should lynch a wolf because that would be wolfy (but I'm saying it anyway)".

I know that's a rather glib summary, but this post really rang alarm bells for me. I think it's the 'finding a wolf will be nearly impossible, so there's no point trying' vibe. And then her later posts seemed to be quite confrontational... come to think of it, against G55 and Legate, who were already under a certain amount of fire.

On the flip side, I'm somewhat suspicious of the people who've posted a few times but not really... said anything. I feel like Loslote did this, but mostly in the very early game when nobody was saying much of substance. The Two Bs (Brinniel and Boromir88) struck me the same way, and came in a fair bit later. Though in fairness I was starting to glaze over a little by the middle of page 2, so their later posts might have more in them than I thought.

... I've quote-posted something from Zil but have no idea why. Let me go look at the original.

Oh, right, the requote got stripped out. It was this:

Originally Posted by Inziladun

Hmm. Perhaps.

I have no idea how to spot a cobbler, but it occurs to me that climbing aboard a cobbler-wagon could be a nice way for a wolf to hide. If the village ends up cobbler-hunting rather than wolf-hunting, that can only be a win for the wolves, right? So this sort of mild encouragement of cobbler suspicions raised a little flag for me.

... actually, didn't Lommy bring up the cobbler as well? Yeah, there it is - right back in her first post.

So, general overview: nothing solid (obviously!), but at least a few things to consider. I would like to know why Pitch refocussed the no-vote discussion on Legate, and more generally, whether people agree that cobbler-spotting can be a wolfish tell.

hS

[A Little Green]

Originally Posted by Huinesoron

I have no idea how to spot a cobbler, but it occurs to me that climbing aboard a cobbler-wagon could be a nice way for a wolf to hide. If the village ends up cobbler-hunting rather than wolf-hunting, that can only be a win for the wolves, right? So this sort of mild encouragement of cobbler suspicions raised a little flag for me.

... actually, didn't Lommy bring up the cobbler as well? Yeah, there it is - right back in her first post.

So, general overview: nothing solid (obviously!), but at least a few things to consider. I would like to know why Pitch refocussed the no-vote discussion on Legate, and more generally, whether people agree that cobbler-spotting can be a wolfish tell.

I'm supposed to be working atm so I'll be back with more substance later, but just a quick note on cobbler-spotting: yes, a village that focused extensively on speculating about the cobbler would probably be a happy place for a wolf. That said, I do think it's useful to keep the cobbler in mind - that is, to remember that there is one person around whose aim is to distract us from hunting our actual wolves. So discussing potential cobbler suspicions doesn't necessarily ring alarm bells for me, but I'd be wary of anyone mainly concerned with chasing cobblers (never seen that though) or voting for a suspected cobbler instead of a suspected wolf.

Edit: x-ed with Lommy