Tol-in-Gaurhoth CXIV – The Evil Breath of Morgoth in Dor-lómin, game thread

[Pitchwife]

Originally Posted by Galadriel55

Well... I suppose, technically, if we all learn from RL examples and willingly quarantine ourselves *before* we get sick - i.e. if we all vote ourselves - the only people not to do so will be the baddies, and then Day 2 will be a breeze.

Yes. For the baddies.

Originally Posted by Galadriel55

Aaaaand cue discussion about a no-vote Day 1!

Please let's not.

Originally Posted by Thinlómien

Like I'm imanining multiple crossposted votes in the minutes before deadline. I wanted to suggest avoiding this by consciously trying to spread the vote a little, but then again, the last minute flurry can be pretty telling afterwards.

Well, since in this game the first to be tied is lynched I'd expect there to be a little less chaos in the last minutes before deadline, less people holding back their vote till the last possible second. So, hm, let me think, couldn't 'spreading the votes a little' be a safe tactic for wolves as long as there's enough votes for a non-wolf?

Originally Posted by Thinlómien

Which almost led me to say "hey dudes, let's lynch a wolf toDay, that would be a really good idea"... well.... surprise.

You don't say!

Originally Posted by Loslote

Yknow, I really think you're onto something here! And frankly, with five wolves, I don't think we can afford not to try to lynch one Day 1.

You know, if G55 hadn't brought up the topic of a no lynch D1 this would be about the most non-committal thing you could possibly say. (As in, when can we ever afford not to try to lynch a wolf?)

[Loslote]

Originally Posted by Pitchwife

You know, if G55 hadn't brought up the topic of a no lynch D1 this would be about the most non-committal thing you could possibly say. (As in, when can we ever afford not to try to lynch a wolf?)

I mean, you're not wrong. I didn't think G55's mentioning a no-lynch was worth strongly disagreeing with, but I did want to make it clear I was not in favor of it. I also thought that would be pretty clear in context, though maybe I underestimated Day 1 jumpiness.

[Shastanis Althreduin]

Originally Posted by Loslote

I mean, you're not wrong. I didn't think G55's mentioning a no-lynch was worth strongly disagreeing with, but I did want to make it clear I was not in favor of it. I also thought that would be pretty clear in context, though maybe I underestimated Day 1 jumpiness.

I like this too.

[Shastanis Althreduin]

That's probably enough content to make it look like I'm participating.

(Er, wait, what? )

And now I'm heading to bed. I likely won't be around until a few hours before DL, but I should be here then.

I'll leave you with this to have fun discussing - if I were to vote right now, it would be for Lommy.

Good night!

[Rikae]

Oh ... hello! I'm sorry, I've just been busy making these masks. They have pockets!

Well, it's good to see that Lommy and G55 have come to the conclusion that we need to try lynch a wolf, er, quarantine an infected. And G55 and Legate have agreed we should cast fake votes.

And G55 and Lommy have decided that Legate is a cobbler, and Inzil and Mac have suggested he's infected?

Seriously, it's interesting how the fake votes discussion evolved, seemingly from a couple of throwaway comments to a serious suggestion. Normally it would be totally pointless, but there is some sense in it as a way to prevent people from lurking and waiting to bandwagon on the QT vote. However, I don't think it's practical, and probably won't be necessary, as "lurk and wait for the QT vote" would become suspicious behavior very quickly anyway.

When it comes to single top suspects vs lists, both have their pros and cons and leave material to analyze later on. Me, I like lists. Here's one, just to get the ball rolling:

Pitchwife
G55
Macalaure

[Brinniel]

On Legate's post's about the fake votes...
Is it suspicious? Perhaps, but not necessarily. If he's evil, he's being rather bold, and if he's innocent, a wolf could use his posts to build a case against him. Then again, there could be no wolves involved and they are just quietly letting this play out.

Correct me if I'm wrong, but I do believe there's only five remaining players who have not yet posted - which means odds are that there's at least 2-3 baddies hiding among the current posts. The problem I have with Day 1 is that without a track record from a previous Day, I tend see more people as innocent than guilty. Which I guess makes sense; after all, most of us are in fact innocent.

So, let's try this backwards...

So far I find Lommy to be the most genuine. She's only posted a few times early on, however, I do find her to be sensible and am agreeing with what she has to say.

THE Ka also seems level-headed to me and I'm leaning towards innocentish.

As for the other side of the scale, it's still too early for me to feel any strong suspicions, but based on hunch and posts I've seen, I am slightly more wary of: Inzil, Pitchwife, G55

Now time for sleep...it is far too late!

[Galadriel55]

So I got woken up in the middle of the night by a spam call, and so here I am. Again.

Originally Posted by Shastanis Althreduin

So did Lady Macbeth.

I.e. The more you wash your hands, the more suspect you should be?

Originally Posted by Shastanis Althreduin

That's probably enough content to make it look like I'm participating.

(Er, wait, what?)

As this will probably make a difference with later analyses, are we to assume you have not read past the last quoted post yet? Or just didn't have time for a more detailed comment?

Originally Posted by THE Ka

I was wondering about it too, but did some extensive combing through the discussion thread and you're correct

So I was still wrong. I thought I looked through all of Nog's posts. Evidently not.

Originally Posted by Ka

Thinking more on the mechanics of this, so if I'm correct and not too tired, on the second Night the QT will only have 1 player there to cast a vote?

D1 + N2 = 2 players to vote on D2. I believe the thread is inactive at Night, and in any case voting only happens during the Day.

Originally Posted by Rikae

Well, it's good to see that Lommy and G55 have come to the conclusion that we need to try lynch a wolf, er, quarantine an infected. And G55 and Legate have agreed we should cast fake votes.

And G55 and Lommy have decided that Legate is a cobbler, and Inzil and Mac have suggested he's infected?

You’re arrested for Gate-breaking, and Tearing up of Rules, and Assaulting Gate-keepers, and - errr, that is, you're accused of Generalizing, Exaggerating, and Deliberately Misinterpreting and Misrepresenting Other Posts. I challenge you to defend your statements!

Originally Posted by Rikae

Seriously, it's interesting how the fake votes discussion evolved, seemingly from a couple of throwaway comments to a serious suggestion. Normally it would be totally pointless, but there is some sense in it as a way to prevent people from lurking and waiting to bandwagon on the QT vote. However, I don't think it's practical, and probably won't be necessary, as "lurk and wait for the QT vote" would become suspicious behavior very quickly anyway.

Assuming the QT have an innocent predominance, would it not be the innocents who would prefer to wait for the QT vote?


Aaaand back to bed for me. Even the hardy Men of Dor-lomin need their rest.


Edit: xed with Brin.

[Rikae]

Originally Posted by Galadriel55

You’re arrested for Gate-breaking, and Tearing up of Rules, and Assaulting Gate-keepers, and - errr, that is, you're accused of Generalizing, Exaggerating, and Deliberately Misinterpreting and Misrepresenting Other Posts. I challenge you to defend your statements!

Defend, hm? Just jokingly summarizing the initial conversation. I was curious to see what sort of reaction it would get, though.

Assuming the QT have an innocent predominance, would it not be the innocents who would prefer to wait for the QT vote?

I was referring to not voicing serious suspicions before the QT vote, which would make for a very unproductive day, no trails, lazy justifications. and a good environment for wolves to hide, which is why (I hope) innocents will avoid doing it.

[Rikae]

Originally Posted by Galadriel55

You’re arrested for Gate-breaking, and Tearing up of Rules, and Assaulting Gate-keepers, and - errr, that is, you're accused of Generalizing, Exaggerating, and Deliberately Misinterpreting and Misrepresenting Other Posts. I challenge you to defend your statements!

Actually, you know what?

What was I supposed to be deliberately misrepresenting? G55, you never did answer that.

[Loslote]

Originally Posted by Galadriel55

It was said in a joking tone, but I was dead serious about you being inaccurate and exaggerating. The most inaccurate thing about Mac you've addressed as an "oops, don't know how that got there" which sounds innocent but is still EXTREMELY unhelpful, since it sticks incorrectly in people's memories. When did Zil cast accusation on Legate as being a wolf? Find me that post, please, because I don't see one. What you said about Lommy - seriously?

I get that it's been part joke, but it's also so dangerous to half-seriously summarize things with such blatant exaggeration and inaccuracy, because again this is how it sticks in people's minds. Moreover, it's how people (especially yourself) can easily justify votes and suspicion later on - based on incorrect summaries. I can argue about the statements involving me as well, except that would be biased and there is sufficient to be said without it; the exception is the first statement, cause I can't recall where I "concluded" we need to lynch a wolf (I recall Lommy's post that you refer to but not mine).

So yes. A subtle diversion / tweaking of how people remember the events is not at all beyond your posts' potential achievements. Throw some unsupported shade on people, then dismiss half of it as a joke and half of it as an oopsy daisy, and the post gets forgiven but the shade remains. Actually, it was so bombastically inaccurate I am surprised only Mac called you out on it except for me.

(for ease of discussion for everyone else, we are both talking about #69.

Okay, so, let's actually look at this post, then, shall we?

Originally Posted by Rikae

Oh ... hello! I'm sorry, I've just been busy making these masks. They have pockets!

Well, it's good to see that Lommy and G55 have come to the conclusion that we need to try lynch a wolf, er, quarantine an infected. And G55 and Legate have agreed we should cast fake votes.

And G55 and Lommy have decided that Legate is a cobbler, and Inzil and Mac have suggested he's infected?

Seriously, it's interesting how the fake votes discussion evolved, seemingly from a couple of throwaway comments to a serious suggestion. Normally it would be totally pointless, but there is some sense in it as a way to prevent people from lurking and waiting to bandwagon on the QT vote. However, I don't think it's practical, and probably won't be necessary, as "lurk and wait for the QT vote" would become suspicious behavior very quickly anyway.

When it comes to single top suspects vs lists, both have their pros and cons and leave material to analyze later on. Me, I like lists. Here's one, just to get the ball rolling:

Pitchwife
G55
Macalaure

This was still very early on Day 1, and frankly, I am not sure what in this post you think is so inaccurate. Is it a bit tongue in cheek? Yeah, maybe. But I'm pretty sure everything Rikae summarized actually was part of the early banter and tentative strategy talk. If you were a wolf, I could see you not wanting to focus on the other members of the G55-Legate-Pitch tangle, and wanting to try to start up a distracting bandwagon. I honestly don't really see the motivation for an ordo to devote this much energy towards a suspicion that isn't really built on much of anything. If we were doing the bonus vote, I would definitely be voting for G55 at this point.

[Huinesoron]

Am now stuck on my phone, so this is going to be a bit fractured.

Originally Posted by G55

Speaking of hypothetical ideas, this scenario kinda came into my mind last night. So, it's the EndGame, and alive are Wolf, Hunter (hunting the Wolf), and Ordo. Ordo dies. Wolf devours Hunter, but Hunter takes down the wolf. Does either side win?

Is it just me, or is hypothetically contemplating possible Wolf victories not entirely the action of an innocent villager?

Originally Posted by Mac

I'm not even saying that there*isn't*a wolf among them - it's possible - but I don't like the way this is gaining momentum.

We're, what, three and a bit hours from deadline? There's been a few other suspicions around, but I haven't seen anyone (Besides maybe you, but see below) strike more than one or two people as dodgy other than on general feel. The GLP has kind of drowned the rest out; I think the best evidence we have on everyone else might actually be their reactions to it all? I'll try and have a look later.

Originally Posted by Mac

Translation: "I'm trying to frame an innocent but I don't want to get my own hands dirty, can someone help me out?"*

To be honest I still lean against you being a wolf. I'm willing to be persuaded by the evidence - but I was mostly hoping for a wolf to stick their neck out too far in manufacturing said evidence.

It does look like I over-read the amount of discussion there was(n't) of you, so I think that's probably a blind alley.

Originally Posted by A Little Green

Huin*then says*Lommy*seems to have eased off a bit, and later speculates if it’s a coincidence that she seemed to appear just to defend herself and then disappear again when he seemed satisfied with her explanation. I’m not sure what to make of any of this, but I think it merits more attention than it got.

By 'eased off', I mean that her explanations struck me as less suspicious in presentation than her previous behaviour. But as she says - sometimes she leans into the stereotypes, so presumably she can lean out of them at need?

Originally Posted by A Little Green

I’m as interested (if not more) in other people’s reactions to those three as in the trio themselves.

This. (I think already said this in this same post, actually.)

Okay, I think I've caught up with the ever-moving present. I feel like the Day has split into three phases: phase 1 being the actual discussion over the fake votes idea, phase two being reactions to and suspicions over the parts people played in it, and now phase 3 is suspicion over those reactions. I want to reread phase 2, because I think phase 4 (analysing the current suspicions) is likely to be too deep down the rabbit hole: we'll all be looking at so many levels of info that you could form a plausible suspicion of everyone!

hS, as of post 149

[Inziladun]

Originally Posted by Legate of Amon Lanc

Hey, THAT is actually a pretty good idea. Because seriously. It would kinda force the Wolves' hands (or tongues). I like that. I mean people can of course flip-flop later, but it isn't easy. I like it. I wholeheartedly second it. Let's do this!

Don't many do this anyway, as in saying whom they suspect and might vote for? And those who don't, voting quickly and seemingly haphazardly, are rightly questioned.

Originally Posted by Pitchwife

You know, if G55 hadn't brought up the topic of a no lynch D1 this would be about the most non-committal thing you could possibly say. (As in, when can we ever afford not to try to lynch a wolf?)

Cue my usual "a no lynch plays to the baddies" quote.

x/d with Lottie