If Sauron prevailed...

[Zigûr]

This topic was discussed here:
http://forum.barrowdowns.com/showthread.php?t=18770
My opinion is that Sauron's realm would have eventually torn itself apart through internal strife and civil war. A major theme of Professor Tolkien's work is the fissiparous nature of evil and I believe that thematic consistency would dictate that Sauron would, in time, lose control of parts of his own empire. Ring or no Ring, Sauron's will and attention was not omniscient or omnipresent, and Cirith Ungol alone shows how easily his own servants could fall to fighting each other. This was especially a problem with Orcs, as Professor Tolkien observes in the essay 'Orcs' published in Morgoth's Ring.

All his Orcs hated one another, and must be kept ever at war with some 'enemy' to prevent them from slaying one another.

While Men, not Orcs, would probably be the majority of Sauron's population, we might imagine Men becoming Orc-like under Sauron's repressive, degrading regime and developing similar traits.

Oppression breeds rebellion as well.

That being said, such a process might be expected to take hundreds, if not thousands, of years.

[Inziladun]

Originally Posted by Zigûr

Ring or no Ring, Sauron's will and attention was not omniscient or omnipresent, and Cirith Ungol alone shows how easily his own servants could fall to fighting each other. This was especially a problem with Orcs, as Professor Tolkien observes in the essay 'Orcs' published in Morgoth's Ring.

Then again, as Frodo, who, through possession of the Ring had special insight into Sauron's will and his rule over his servants noted to Sam, the two Orcs hunting them after their escape would have forgotten all about whatever quarrel they had if they'd spotted the Hobbits.
So maybe, as long as Sauron gave his subjects an external enemy to vent their anger and lust for conflict toward, his realm could have endured. Perhaps the utter subjugation of the West, once accomplished, would have indeed led to an insane plan to conquer even Valinor, and take down the 'false gods' of the West. I can see Sauron eventually getting arrogant enough to try it, or at least to feign that was an ultimate goal of his.

For a 1984 parallel, the "war' against the West need not even be actual. Sauron could manufacture 'attacks' by the remaining Elves and Men and blame the Valar, turning whatever hate and frustration fumed in Mordor's minions always away from himself.

[Zigûr]

Originally Posted by Inziladun

So maybe, as long as Sauron gave his subjects an external enemy to vent their anger and lust for conflict toward, his realm could have endured. Perhaps the utter subjugation of the West, once accomplished, would have indeed led to an insane plan to conquer even Valinor, and take down the 'false gods' of the West. I can see Sauron eventually getting arrogant enough to try it, or at least to feign that was an ultimate goal of his.

For a 1984 parallel, the "war' against the West need not even be actual. Sauron could manufacture 'attacks' by the remaining Elves and Men and blame the Valar, turning whatever hate and frustration fumed in Mordor's minions always away from himself.

I think something like the second scenario seems fitting. While I imagine Sauron would not have even admitted the existence of the Valar to his minions unless he had to, I can see him constantly finding new "undesirables" within his own realm to target for terrorisation and destruction in order to keep the rest of the populace in line. This would be consistent with real-world totalitarian policy, as Hannah Arendt for instance interpreted it.

[Galadriel55]

Originally Posted by Zigûr

I think something like the second scenario seems fitting. While I imagine Sauron would not have even admitted the existence of the Valar to his minions unless he had to, I can see him constantly finding new "undesirables" within his own realm to target for terrorisation and destruction in order to keep the rest of the populace in line. This would be consistent with real-world totalitarian policy, as Hannah Arendt for instance interpreted it.

I want to point out that an enemy need not be people. Easiest I can think of is hunger. Convince people that they need to work together for their own survival, to produce enough food. If Sauron is like Saruman in this respect, he's all about industry. Convince people they need to turn gears and build roads and complete other projects. They'll have to accept help from each other and they'll be too tired to rebel. It's all ruined by the less altruistic and trusting individuals, but then again Shagrat and Gorbag made a career and various Snagas would desert and break rules here and there. As a long term plan, this won't last, but it can sure help bridge gaps between armed conflicts.

[Rhun charioteer]

But with everyone under his thumb and some men(there will be) even exploiting the situation to oppress other men couldn't it go on either forever or a very very long time.

Any revolt will be crushed, any disloyal orcs destroyed. Sauron in theory could reign over Arda for thousands of years as an immortal god king to his subjects terrible and mighty, the lord of men and the earth.

It would be cruel and nearly a dereliction of duty of the Valar to allow this state to remain unchallenged.

[Inziladun]

Originally Posted by Rhun charioteer

Sauron in theory could reign over Arda for thousands of years as an immortal god king to his subjects terrible and mighty, the lord of men and the earth.

It would be cruel and nearly a dereliction of duty of the Valar to allow this state to remain unchallenged.

Like I said, I don't think the Valar would have tolerated Sauron indefinitely. A renegade Maia making himself king and god over Middle-earth was an insult to their authority, not to mention "unfair" to the lesser beings in his path. There would have been another plan to bring him down, though it would almost certainly have involved more cataclysmic damage and loss of life.