Werewolf CXII - Dueling Wizards III - The Living Thread

[Nogrod]

Just getting my gut feelings in order...

Brinn doesn't post a loads but posts and is making sense. I like it. Same goes more or less with Lalaith (we need to open a Sancerre one Day!). Now both could be evil as well, but they are not ringing any evil-bells in my mind, at least yet.

Shasta and Mith post less - especially less of substance (whatever that is - let's not go back to that discussion) but Shasta makes me more worried than Mith. That is kind of normal and I wouldn't make any strong inferences on that either way.

Sally I believe to be innocent, at least now - but a pretty decent turn-candidate as well. So one to truly watch, but probably not evil yet...

Nerwen is my eternal enigma - I always suspect her (most of the times being correct - I feel!) and I know she's good in this. But does that merit a vote as itself? Probably not at this stage.

Eomer I find hard to read - which is normal as well. On average I see him positively as trying to stir things a little - but maybe his carefulness should warn me? Anyway, he's one I might consider voting because of his laid back stirring of the pot.

Legate I have a bad feeling with even if I can't quite point into any exact thing. He's being his normal self-doubting and pondering self but has also kind of laid low being almost over-round-about. One of my possible vote-candidates.

I'm not the first one to notice Boro's game has been a bit odd - and with the self-vote episode (which was actually pretty safe for him) it does look weird at some points. At the same time, I could see an innocent Boro taking the fun-road into the game and just enjoy that kind of a game. The problem is that he could be turned and then be pretty hard to lynch.

So Lottie and Eönwe then? Both have a tendency to try and steer the game, and I get somewhat evil vibes from both with the way they play. Lottie has been more easy toDay (which could just be wisdom), Eönwe is the kind of very cool and intelligent driver / second Phantom or the one who called the evil to take him into her service (or was given this role by the EW on N1).

[Eomer of the Rohirrim]

I'm sure the GW has thought about this a lot more than I have, but can we expect a visitor to go straight into the dead thread tomorrow? Seems like that role is made to be used quickly. I'm pleased that we seem to be getting through a day without the duel; think it benefits the good side. It's possible that us ordos are hugely outnumbered just now, though maybe more likely that the GW and the EW, at least once, picked the same person.

[Eönwë]

Ok, well since Wizard tactics have been discussed a bit at this point, I'm just going to say it outright: I think if the GW knows who the EW is, they should really think about dueling soon.

Our worst-case scenario at this point is 4 baddies and 8 goodies. That means that if we don't get rid of the EW, we would have to lynch (or hunter-kill, or visitor-pick) a wolf both toDay (or toNight) and toMorrow (or toMorrow Night) to not lose the game. And if it's not the worst-case scenario, stopping the EW from creating any more wolves would be really good.

[Legate of Amon Lanc]

Okay, I went through some stuff and now I am trying to sort my thoughts. I managed to read Nerwen's posts; the thing is, she's been posting a lot, but like 90% of it is providing reference (especially on Day 1). That makes her look helpful and all, but objectively, it doesn't really say anything. Also she was somewhat wishy-washy on her vote:

Originally Posted by Nerwen

So, I'm probably going to vote Zil, not so much for the "slip" as for his reaction to my rather low-key probing, also for voting me with what frankly looks to me like forced suspicion.

My problem here is that I fear my judgement may be coloured by a.) the fact that it's me he's been voting and b.) the fact his playing style tends to be rather creepy regardless of role. Hmmn.

Otherwise, my mind isn't still at ease about Boro, but he hasn't really been around. He was also very late on the Zil bandwagon, which could be a good spot for a Wolf to simply hide a vote. (And if Zil was a Wolf, and Boro as well, then it would probably also be a place to simply dump a vote since the bandwagon was practically finished at that point.)

If I am looking at the votes, Eönwë's vote has a similar quality. The earlier votes for Zil were still at the time when they actually mattered (it could have changed things), so that is a different case and what they meant would show better once we know Zil's role. At the same time, any of the early votes for separate people could have been throwaway, but they still commited to a statement, unlike the votes added to already big pile of other votes.

I think I will now do some summary and try to figure out whom to vote. It's pretty difficult when there is no known role, since practically everything can be interpreted both ways.

EDIT: x-ed with some Eönwës, Nerwen, and Nogrod

[Nerwen]

Originally Posted by Legate of Amon Lanc

Okay, I went through some stuff and now I am trying to sort my thoughts. I managed to read Nerwen's posts; the thing is, she's been posting a lot, but like 90% of it is providing reference (especially on Day 1). That makes her look helpful and all, but objectively, it doesn't really say anything. Also she was somewhat wishy-washy on her vote:

Wishy-washy nothing. I had genuine doubts, and I stated them. (I may also have been getting a trifle jittery, giving that my merely pointing out Zil's possibly suspicious behaviour had got me jumped on surprisingly hard.)

Edit: x'd since Legate #425.

[Brinniel]

A look at the Inzil bandwagoners:

Lottie: She did bandwagon, but her reasoning that Inzil looked suspicious due to his defensiveness rather than the slip itself makes her vote look less suspicious to me. Aside from that, I do have some reservations about her, mainly for the same reason I voted her on Day 1.
Eonwe: His reasoning for suspicion of Inzil's seems to latch onto others', which is classic bandwagoning technique. More on him below.
Nerwen: She is the one who pointed out his slip. I found her eagerness to jump on him suspicious which is why I voted her. If Inzil is indeed innocent, I could see an evil Nerwen bluffing to make it look like an innocent-on-innocent spat. Or if he's evil...perhaps an evil-on-evil spat for the ultimate bluff, though that's more of a stretch.
Boro: I thought his self vote Day 1 looked innocent, but that could make him a good target for conversion the following Night. He reasoned yesterDay wanting to make it to the Dead Thread so that he wouldn't have to be the EW's pawn. The "I don't want to be turned" sort of act combined with his bandwagon vote doesn't sit well with me.

None the bandwagon voters look terribly innocent to me. There may be more to tell once we know Inzil's role.

I did mention yesterDay that those who focused more on the Dead Thread than the actual lynching could be suspicious. So let's look at that:

Nogrod: While he has provided other substance, a good portion of his talk has to do with the Dead Thread. And he's a bit chaotic about it, which concerns me.
Eonwe: While Nogrod is chaotic, Eonwe at least looks like he's trying to be helpful. I did mention yesterDay that his helpfulness makes him a good target for wolf conversion. So I could see him starting off the game genuinely trying to help the village strategize the Dead Thread, but then turn and as a wolf, give the illusion that he's trying to help all the while quietly manipulating us. Which is scary. And I don't like that he seems to continually draw focus away from toDay's lynch.
Legate: Actually, he didn't focus much on the Dead Thread yesterDay, but it has been a large portion of his subject matter toDay. Could the change in focus point to a newly turned wolf? Possibly. I may need to look at him further.

EDIT: X-ed with Nog and Eomer