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11-04-2016, 09:37 AM
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#11 |
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Regal Dwarven Shade
Join Date: Jan 2002
Location: A Remote Dwarven Hold
Posts: 3,594
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Hmm...where is everyone?
Numbers Post.
I'm slightly modifying the format...and this post will be a bit lengthy, but the content is pretty straightforward. I wish it was easier to set up charts and tables on the forum.  Worst Case Scenario if we do No-Lynch DAY ONE McCaber Nerwen Player 3 Player 4 Player 5 Bard Player Herbalist Player Baddie 8 Baddie 9 Baddie 10 DAY TWO McCaber Nerwen Player 3 Player 4 Player 5 Bard Player Herbalist Player Baddie 8 Baddie 9 Baddie 10 DAY THREE Player 3 Player 4 Player 5 Bard Player Herbalist Player Baddie 8 Baddie 9 Baddie 10 Dead McCaber Nerwen DAY FOUR Player 4 Player 5 Bard Player Herbalist Player Baddie 8 Baddie 9 Baddie 10 Dead McCaber Nerwen Inzil DAY FIVE Player 5 Bard Player Herbalist Player Baddie 8 Baddie 9 Baddie 10 Dead McCaber Nerwen Inzil Shasta DAY SIX Bard Player Herbalist Player Baddie 8 Baddie 9 Baddie 10 Dead McCaber Nerwen Inzil Shasta Player 5 I just put both gifteds in there for convenience sake. On the No-Lynch choice in the worst case scenario we would be dependent on a correct bard save/herbalist heal (assuming the herbalist has any juice left). This would be a pretty chancy prospect. But, I don't for a minute think this is actually the scenario we are facing. And if it is I take my hat off to the wolves. Medium Case Scenario if we do No-Lynch and assuming No Save DAY ONE McCaber Nerwen Player 3 Player 4 Player 5 Bard Player Herbalist Player Baddie 8 Baddie 9 Baddie 10 DAY TWO McCaber Nerwen Player 3 Player 4 Player 5 Bard Player Herbalist Player Baddie 8 Baddie 9 Baddie 10 DAY THREE Player 3 Player 4 Player 5 Bard Player Herbalist Player Baddie 8 Baddie 9 Baddie 10 Dead McCaber Nerwen DAY FOUR Player 4 Player 5 Bard Player Herbalist Player Baddie 8 Baddie 9 Baddie 10 Dead McCaber Nerwen Inzil DAY FIVE Player 4 Player 5 Bard Player Herbalist Player Baddie 9 Baddie 10 Dead McCaber Nerwen Inzil Shasta (Baddie 8) DAY SIX Player 5 Bard Player Herbalist Player Baddie 9 Baddie 10 Dead McCaber Nerwen Inzil Shasta (Baddie 8) Player 4 The wolves already cannot win if we are in this case, they can't get enough kills. A No-Lynch would be viable. Best Case Scenario if we do No-Lynch and assuming No Save DAY ONE McCaber Nerwen Player 3 Player 4 Player 5 Bard Player Herbalist Player Baddie 8 Baddie 9 Baddie 10 DAY TWO McCaber Nerwen Player 3 Player 4 Player 5 Bard Player Herbalist Player Baddie 8 Baddie 9 Baddie 10 DAY THREE Player 3 Player 4 Player 5 Bard Player Herbalist Player Baddie 8 Baddie 9 Baddie 10 Dead McCaber Nerwen DAY FOUR Player 3 Player 4 Player 5 Bard Player Herbalist Player Baddie 9 Baddie 10 Dead McCaber Nerwen Inzil (Baddie 8) DAY FIVE Player 3 Player 4 Player 5 Bard Player Herbalist Player Baddie 10 Dead McCaber Nerwen Inzil (Baddie 8) Shasta (Baddie 9) DAY SIX Player 4 Player 5 Bard Player Herbalist Player Baddie 10 Dead McCaber Nerwen Inzil (Baddie 8) Shasta (Baddie 9) Player 3 Also here the wolves are doomed and cannot win regardless of what they do. My personal belief is we have the best case scenario, but it is possible that we are on medium. There isn't much we can do if we are on worst. We would have to roll the dice on a lynch and hope for the best. But I don't believe we are on the worst case. Nothing about the way this game has unfolded leads me to believe we are facing the worst case scenario right now. All that being said, I invite everyone to pick apart my numbers and analysis to make sure it is sound. As I said before, never trust me with counting. While I think we are safe to Not Lynch, I kind of would like to lynch Lalaith. I think the case against her is compelling and I'd like to take a stab at winning this thing with a clean sweep. But I am not wedded to that if the rest of the Ward doesn't think it advisable. Xed with 2 Boro's
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...finding a path that cannot be found, walking a road that cannot be seen, climbing a ladder that was never placed, or reading a paragraph that has no... Last edited by Kuruharan; 11-04-2016 at 09:45 AM. Reason: 2nd edit - I screwed up my italics. There's got to be a better way to organize these lists |
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