Werewolf CXI - The Black Breath Ward

[Kuruharan]

First off, yay, I'm still alive!

Originally Posted by Loslote

And if I'm reading the narration right, I think Zil having nightmares about tp and Nerwen means he was, in fact, evil?

I hope so, and it was possible, but I don't read the narration as necessarily implying that.

However, that is neither here nor there.

(It's the Black Breath, in case I wasn't clear enough. I am not long for this world, my friends, not long indeed...)

Alas.

I do think the people who pushed for that yesterDay (Shasta and Lalaith, primarily) deserve a closer look.

I wholeheartedly agree.

[Legate of Amon Lanc]

Originally Posted by Loslote

And if I'm reading the narration right, I think Zil having nightmares about tp and Nerwen means he was, in fact, evil? So yay for staying calm and not flying off the handle.

Funny, because I read it completely in the opposite way. "It looks as if he was good, being haunted in the same way they were." Although I see now that it would make equal, if not more sense if that was that those he had contributed to killing haunted him. But I assume it's meant to be ambiguous anyway. So I am not sure.

Originally Posted by Loslote

Also, I'm assuming the Herbalist saved Kuru, probably to even out the odds in case we end up with the Day Six winning condition. Thanks, Herbalist.

Speaking of that, would that mean the option of "waiting it out" might be feasible again? Of course there is the ambiguity whether Zil was good or evil (if evil, then it should be fairly good in our favor, though). Can somebody do the maths? Are we once again in the "if one kill can be prevented..." situation? Because then it might be better to avoid the lynching. It would be close though, I bet.

Originally Posted by Loslote

I also think the way Shasta tried to defend Zil and then suddenly put him in his top three for lynching looks very suspicious. Now that the narration seems to suggest that Zil was a wolf, I would argue that Shasta looks likely to be his packmate.

I would not be too hasty about that. First, let's keep in mind that we really don't know whether Zil was a Wolf or not. Second, I don't actually think Shasta put Zil among his top three in any striking manner.

In fact, I was sorta surprised Zil got lynched in the end, because it started to look like he wasn't a very popular target. Obviously, Lalaith's vote for him was self-preservation. But that Shasta was indeed a "0.5", because he simply did not want to lynch Lalaith more.

Anyway, I have generally fairly good feeling about Shasta, myself. Whether I agree with his opinions or not, he seems to be thinking things through and it feels like it is genuine.

[Boromir88]

I'm likely going to have to vote very, very early today. Unless something dramatically changes in the next few hours, I want Kuru for rep.

No matter Inzil's role, Lottie, you did the best with what you were given and with the knowledge you had at the time. It's all any of us could ask from a representative. Your conscience is clear. Sleep in peace if the herbalist can't cure your affliction tonight.

[Kuruharan]

Originally Posted by Legate of Amon Lanc

Anyway, I have generally fairly good feeling about Shasta, myself. Whether I agree with his opinions or not, he seems to be thinking things through and it feels like it is genuine.

See, I don't get where you are picking that up. As I will demonstrate in a post later toDAY, he at the very least is not reading the thread with a great deal of care, which is a classic wolf tell.

Who is your wolf pack?

My worst case scenario wolf pack is Shasta, Lalaith, and Lommy.

My better case scenario wolf pack is Shasta, Lalaith, and Inzil.

[Kuruharan]

I would also like to propose that Lottie be our representative for the DAY so that if she isn't healed she can go out with a bang and hopefully take a wolf down too.

I mean, there can't be any doubt that she is innocent.

[Boromir88]

Originally Posted by Kuruharan

I would also like to propose that Lottie be our representative for the DAY so that if she isn't healed she can go out with a bang and hopefully take a wolf down too.

I mean, there can't be any doubt that she is innocent.

In that case...

++Lottie for rep.

I agree with having another lynch chosen today. If Inzil was a conspirator, we are in a good spot. If he wasn't, and we decide no lynch today it seems we'll be hard pressed to hold on til the reinforcements.

The ones who make me most nervous of conspiracy are Shasta and Legate.

[Loslote]

Originally Posted by Kuruharan

See, I don't get where you are picking that up. As I will demonstrate in a post later toDAY, he at the very least is not reading the thread with a great deal of care, which is a classic wolf tell.

Who is your wolf pack?

My worst case scenario wolf pack is Shasta, Lalaith, and Lommy.

My better case scenario wolf pack is Shasta, Lalaith, and Inzil.

I agree with your pack scenarios. I don't think Boro is a wolf, which means it has to be one of the other four (Lommy, Lalaith, Zil, or Shasta). Since we killed one last Night, if we kill another toNight, I think we are just about guaranteed to have killed at least one wolf, which is why I think we definitely should have another lynch toNight.

Also, I will be in and out today, but I will be around closer to dl.

[Kuruharan]

Looks like everyone is like me and doesn't have much time to play the game today.

Shasta posts from yesterday

Post 185 - Says the Herbalist might only have one save and seems...unduly happy about this for an ordo.

Post 190 - Still defends Inzil rather strenuously.

Post 194 - This is the post that gives me the strongest impression that he is not paying attention to the thread. He somehow managed to miss my Post 166 which from visual style alone is one of the most noticeable posts in the thread. Not actually reading the thread is a potential wolfish tell because wolves can subconsciously not read the thread because they don't need to. They already know who is guilty.

Also, at that stage, no-lynch was detrimental to the Ward because we couldn't win that way at that point.

Post 197 - He says he doesn't really suspect anybody. Says with almost a "ho-hum" that he will take a look at Lommy and Lalaith.

Post 198 - Suspicious of Legate for no other reason than it would be really cleverly evil of Legate to be evil in this game. Still defending Inzil.

Post 207 - Why does he write disparagingly about the Ward behaving sensibly?

Post 212 - Suddenly says there might be an outside shot at Inzil being a wolf...but why at that point all of a sudden when Inzil had been deeply suspected from the beginning?

I haven't had time toDAY to run a numbers scenario, and I am not sure that I will. That being said, I am not sure not-lynching is a winning strategy for the Ward at this point. To borrow the analogy from Thucydides, by starting to lynch we have taken a tiger by the tail (our lynches might be wrong). It might have been dangerous for us to seize the tiger by the tail but it is more dangerous for us to let it go now (i.e. the only way for us to correct a bad lynch at this point is a correct lynch).

Now, if somebody wants to run a few scenarios and post them here, I strongly encourage that to happen. I'm just not sure I will be able to get to it as I am very busy at work today.

Xed with Boro

[Kuruharan]

I would also like to say that my preference for a lynch toDAY would be Lalaith as she seems the most likely wolf suspect to achieve a solid consensus.

[Lalaith]

Unless something dramatically changes in the next few hours, I want Kuru for rep.

Now why would you say that? It's evidently clear that Lottie is innocent - Kuru is probably innocent but there is a scenario where he could be guilty. So why choose Kuru over Lottie?

(The scenario where Kuru could be guilty is as follows: desperate wolves would be needing to replace known innocent Lottie with one of their own - how would they do this? Well, once Lottie was finally out of the way, the next 'survivor' would take her place - thus having a conspirator controlling the lynching. It would be possible to stage-manage by simply not breathing on anyone on Night 2 and then having Kuruwolf claiming to be sick).
No, I'm not putting anyone in the known innocent pile other than Lottie and myself. I do think Zil was probably a wolf. I think Boro, Lommy, Legate and [B]Shasta could be wolves. And think even Kuru, far-fetched as it might be, could be a wolf. He has been so adamant about Legate being innocent because of the no-lynching plan, but what if that had been hatched as a wolfy plan to keep the conspirators safe until night-kills put them in the majority to control lynchings? It doesn't seem to have worked out that way, what with Lottie being such a great survivor. But that doesn't mean I'm giving Legate a clean bill of health.
(Thought - if Legate and Kuru turn out to be wolves they will have played with such wily elegance that frankly they deserve to win)

[Loslote]

At this point, I am not super worried about Lommy. She has seemed much more innocent in the past couple Days than she had at first, and I think Shasta and Lalaith are by far the most sinister seeming of the four unknowns. Could Legate be a wolf? Maybe - but if the only argument against him is that there is no proof that he's for sure innocent, I would be wary of anyone who seriously suggested him as a target toDay.

[Legate of Amon Lanc]

Ok, very short time so I will try to be brief and say as much as possible at the same time. I'll be back later in a couple of hours, but for now...

Originally Posted by Boromir88

I'm likely going to have to vote very, very early today. Unless something dramatically changes in the next few hours, I want Kuru for rep.

That was random - why was the initial choice this and not Lottie? Just curious.

Originally Posted by Kuruharan

See, I don't get where you are picking that up. As I will demonstrate in a post later toDAY, he at the very least is not reading the thread with a great deal of care, which is a classic wolf tell.

I actually believe reading the thread carefully is the mark of a Wolf, because they are trying to "stay on top of things". But it depends on the Wolf, I guess. Anyway, after reading your analysis of Shasta, really at least half of it is absolutely the case of "I see a guilty person, now everything he does is evil". That's not to say I don't see reasonably based accusations among some of those, but many of them I don't see as suspicious or think they can be interpreted either way. In any case, I would not base any suspicion on what he has read or not. Many people can read half on the run, from the mobile, whatnot, and this has happened before. Like, I also don't understand how somebody can skip a post like your analysis which takes about half a page, but however frustrating it is, it has happened before. And if it's so visible, then why would a Wolf skip that, of all things. So that actually is one of the (tiny, admitted) things that speak actually for me in Shasta's favor.

Originally Posted by Kuruharan

Who is your wolf pack?

Probably in the positive case something like Lalaith, Boro and Inzil. In case Zil was innocent, then something like Lalaith, Boro and Lommy. Boro more so than Lalaith.

My AbsoluteWorstNightmareScenarioOfAll(TM) is Loslote, Kuru and Boro, given how well you just all seemed to agree on everything just among yourselves now (but I understand there was nobody around). But that is just good ol' paranoia right now. I hope.

But, on the subject of Boro, he seems really flip-floppy now, and I don't really trust him. I wish to see more from Lommy and Lal however. My pick for lynch toDay will probably be among them.