Werewolf CXI - The Black Breath Ward - The Barrow-Downs Discussion Forum

Kuruharan · 10-31-2016, 07:14 AM

Quote:

Originally Posted by Shastanis Althreduin

I don't think the Herbalist has any saves left.

Just a quick chime in before I go to work but I don't think this can be correct.

This is only DAY THREE. We've had one confirmed save. The way the rules read it strongly implies that the Herbalist has multiple saves. Now Sally could be yanking our chain in some way, but that seems an odd way to do it. That's the sort of thing people might be angry about after the game rather than thinking is a good joke and I don't think Sally would do something like that.

I would also like to note that this is exactly the sort of post that is bugging me about Shasta this game. Almost everything he says seems to have an unduly pessimistic slant.

Legate of Amon Lanc · 10-31-2016, 08:45 AM

Quote:

Originally Posted by Inziladun

Based on that, and the fact that it's hard to see Lalaith as a Conspirator

This just caught my eye, care to share why you think so?

Quote:

Originally Posted by Inziladun

I would put the lynch for Boro, Lommy, or Shasta in that order.

Actually, whereas I have my uneasiness about Inzil, there is something to this as well. For example in regards to Boro, I have had similar vibes from him, and at least Inzil is talking and contributive and all. Whereas Boro is just sitting somewhere and not speaking at all. Also as a general thought, I would not be surprised to have at least a couple silent WWs (although I still think at least in the previous few Days, the village's plan of seemingly not lynching and just waiting it out would rather have forced them out to be active, methinks. That is, if I go back, also the reason why I am partly suspicious of Inzil being rather vocal on lynching. On the other hand, pushing a lynch would really make sense for the WWs only in case they weren't threatened (!) - important note).

Quote:

Originally Posted by Inziladun

I was disappointed that the only one I had any strong negative feel for wasn't evil.

Understood. I can imagine that; having experienced similar situation in many games.

Quote:

Originally Posted by Kuruharan

I would also like to note that this is exactly the sort of post that is bugging me about Shasta this game. Almost everything he says seems to have an unduly pessimistic slant.

Well, I think there is a certain generic approach Shasta has like this, almost always. Speaking of generic approaches however, where his proverbial psychic powers are in this game?

Kuruharan · 10-31-2016, 08:58 AM

Here is the latest run of numbers on a no-lynch scenario, discounting any saves.

DAY ONE
McCaber
Nerwen
Player 3
Player 4
Player 5
Player 6
Player 7
Baddie 8
Baddie 9
Baddie 10

DAY TWO
McCaber
Nerwen
Player 3
Player 4
Player 5
Player 6
Player 7
Baddie 8
Baddie 9
Baddie 10

DAY THREE
Player 3
Player 4
Player 5
Player 6
Player 7
Baddie 8
Baddie 9
Baddie 10
Dead
McCaber
Nerwen

DAY FOUR
Player 4
Player 5
Player 6
Player 7
Baddie 8
Baddie 9
Baddie 10
Dead
McCaber
Nerwen
Player 3

DAY FIVE
Player 5
Player 6
Player 7
Baddie 8
Baddie 9
Baddie 10
Dead
McCaber
Nerwen
Player 3
Player 4

DAY SIX
Player 6
Player 7
Baddie 8
Baddie 9
Baddie 10
Dead
McCaber
Nerwen
Player 3
Player 4
Player 5

Now, my belief is we still have a few saves left in the can...at least I sure hope so.

That being said, I think we have reached the point where serious consideration has to be given to lynching.

I also want to say right now that I think Legate or Lottie are the only viable choices for Representative toDAY.

Player analysis post to come.

Loslote · 10-31-2016, 10:08 AM

First off, I regret to inform you that I will be even less available than I had hoped toDay. It turns out tonight is going to be the only clear night all week, so I have to run an observing session for the class I'm TAing - which means I will have to leave an hour before DL, and won't have as much time in between classes as I thought I might.

Since I don't know how much I'll be on, I will say that I do think we need to start lynching - the numbers for the passive scenario are no longer in our favor, so we need to start making moves. If I had to vote for someone to lynch toDay, I would say ++Lommy. I don't think Boro is playing very wolf-like - he's playing a lot quieter than usual, that's for sure, but when he's a wolf, I'm pretty sure he tends to be a louder, more aggressive wolf, not a quieter one. I wouldn't go for a lynch on him just based on him being quiet so far. Similarly with Shasta - I just don't think we have enough on him yet, and what I have seen doesn't strike me as being too far off the norm for him.

Lalaith and Zil I am concerned about, but I think my suspicion of Lommy is the more concrete of the three. Her tone in general has felt like she's trying to play it cool and like she always does, and she's been jumping on suspicions (like my Nerwen idea) too readily. I would go for her if I had to choose right now.

I would be happy with Legate or maybe even Kuru for rep toDay. I see no reason thus far to distrust Kuru's claim, and Legate has seemed trustworthy all game - and I trust that both of them will not deviate very far from the will of the people.

Edit: xed with Kuru and Zil

Loslote · 10-31-2016, 10:17 AM

I agree with Kuru that a Lommy-Lalaith pack would make a lot of sense, with how they've interacted and how they've almost played around each other, avoiding stepping on each other's toes. I don't know that Lommy and Zil are likely packmates - they both jumped on my Nerwen idea, and I think were the two loudest supporters of it, and I think if they were packmates they would have tried to split their forces rather than throwing all of their wolves into the same basket. That would leave either Shasta or Boro as the third packmate, and I am inclined to say it would be Shasta, since I don't think a Borowolf would be playing as quietly as he has been thus far.

(Also I keep imaging what would happen if Kuru and Legate were wolves, and it remains a horrifying thought.

If you two are wolves, massive kudos, guys.

)

Kuruharan · 10-31-2016, 10:20 AM

Quote:

Originally Posted by Loslote

(Also I keep imaging what would happen if Kuru and Legate were wolves, and it remains a horrifying thought.

If you two are wolves, massive kudos, guys.

)

Right back at you. If you and Legate are wolves I will take my hat off to both of you any day of the week.

Kuruharan · 10-31-2016, 10:27 AM

Quote:

Originally Posted by Loslote

I would be happy with Legate or maybe even Kuru for rep toDay. I see no reason thus far to distrust Kuru's claim, and Legate has seemed trustworthy all game - and I trust that both of them will not deviate very far from the will of the people.

I would also like to remove my name from consideration for Rep toDAY.

I have been smote by foul humors and the last thing we need is for somebody to counter-claim and then have a huge mess with that and having my name in the mix for Rep at the same time.

Loslote · 10-31-2016, 10:33 AM

Quote:

Originally Posted by Kuruharan

I would also like to remove my name from consideration for Rep toDAY.

I have been smote by foul humors and the last thing we need is for somebody to counter-claim and then have a huge mess with that and having my name in the mix for Rep at the same time.

Yeah, that's why I said "maybe even" - I'm more than happy to trust your claim right now, but not everyone's checked in yet. Also, the wolves could have not sent in a kill last Night - we have no narration to say otherwise - so unless you die/are saved, it's always possible that you are lying. However, you were pretty trusted before you claimed to be Stricken, so you wouldn't really gain anything from lying, so I'm pretty sure you're telling the truth.

Inziladun · 10-31-2016, 10:38 AM

Quote:

Originally Posted by Loslote

Also, the wolves could have not sent in a kill last Night - we have no narration to say otherwise -

If no Breath was attempted, I can only see that as an error, rather than a deliberate act. What motive would there be to hold off?

Legate of Amon Lanc · 10-31-2016, 10:59 AM

Quote:

Originally Posted by Inziladun

I guess it's just that she hasn't been very involved. That could also be said for the ones I said I would consider for a lynch.

Wait, now that confuses me - because you said you can't see her as Conspirator, but it is because of reasons which, in case of others, don't cause the same conclusion? ??

Quote:

Originally Posted by Loslote

First off, I regret to inform you that I will be even less available than I had hoped toDay. It turns out tonight is going to be the only clear night all week, so I have to run an observing session for the class I'm TAing - which means I will have to leave an hour before DL, and won't have as much time in between classes as I thought I might.

But you will be able to send in a lynch vote during the Night, if we elect you so?

Quote:

Originally Posted by Loslote

Since I don't know how much I'll be on, I will say that I do think we need to start lynching - the numbers for the passive scenario are no longer in our favor,

Basically agreed, but just a remark with looking at Kuru's numbers - if we still get at least one more save (and have living Gifteds, of course), it is still possible for us to win by the numbers (since if the numbers are equal, the village still wins). I don't however mind lynching toDay. We should, like Nerwen had said, review on Day-to-Day basis.

The problem might be if, like Kuru said, Boro is really at risk of being modfired. That is something we don't really need at all. But we shall see. There are still several Days ahead of us.

I would be okay with the lynch being either of those names that have been brought up - Lalaith, on review, really strikes me as a possibility of a quiet Wolf. Zil concerns me, but like I said earlier, at least he is active. About Lommy it is hard to say. I would not dramatically object to it, because it is a possibility. Maybe I would prefer others. In any case I would hope to see her and Lal (and others, like Boro and Shasta) to post soon.

Quote:

Originally Posted by Kuruharan

I would also like to remove my name from consideration for Rep toDAY.

I have been smote by foul humors and the last thing we need is for somebody to counter-claim and then have a huge mess with that and having my name in the mix for Rep at the same time.

Reasonable point, even though I don't think it very likely. (Btw if this is all a scheme to gain our trust, what a scheme.)

EDIT: x-ed after Kuru's post

Loslote · 10-31-2016, 11:14 AM

Quote:

Originally Posted by Legate of Amon Lanc

But you will be able to send in a lynch vote during the Night, if we elect you so?

Yes, I just won't be around *at* the deadline.

Quote:

Originally Posted by Legate

I would be okay with the lynch being either of those names that have been brought up - Lalaith, on review, really strikes me as a possibility of a quiet Wolf. Zil concerns me, but like I said earlier, at least he is active. About Lommy it is hard to say. I would not dramatically object to it, because it is a possibility. Maybe I would prefer others. In any case I would hope to see her and Lal (and others, like Boro and Shasta) to post soon.

I would be okay with Lalaith, if that's what people agree on. I would prefer Lommy, but I find it highly likely that they are packmates, so I think we probably will end up needing to lynch both eventually.

Kuruharan · 10-31-2016, 11:16 AM

I would like to ask everyone, if at all possible, to post a player analysis some time in the near future and not wait until the tail end of the DAY to do so...or fail to do player analysis at all.

We know there are Innocents in the Unknown column so please be helpful and share your thoughts. If we lynch toDAY we need to do our best to make sure we get it right.

Not to put too fine a point on it, but for the Unknown Innocents it is in your own self-interest to do so.

Inziladun · 10-31-2016, 11:30 AM

Quote:

Originally Posted by Legate of Amon Lanc

Wait, now that confuses me - because you said you can't see her as Conspirator, but it is because of reasons which, in case of others, don't cause the same conclusion? ??

Well, she has also expressed some confusion about the roles similar to what I've felt, though admittedly that could be a ploy. I'd think though a baddie might not appear so 'at sea'.

Lalaith · 10-31-2016, 11:39 AM

Sorry, work and differing time zones have necessitated a late arrival toDay .But anyway, I’ve been thinking about our no-shows and the effect they might have had on game play.

Quote:

I agree that the assumption should be Cab was innocent.

Kuru

Yes, that’s been an assumption lots of people have made, but then I got thinking, what if he'd been a wolf? I remembered someone had thought there were just two wolves - I went back and checked, and it was Legate . So then I thought, lets say McCaber was a wolf who hadn’t showed up – might this be a slip from a fellow wolf who knew they were only two around?
I know he's a top-grade player and so unlikely have made such a careless slip were he a wolf. But you never know. Legate seems to be very widely trusted at the moment. I know he carried out the will of the village on the first day and I do think he appears very helpful, but I don’t want to trust him blindly - I personally would much prefer Lottie as representative.

Then there’s our current sick patient, Kuru. No-one has come forward to counterclaim against him, but might the no-show of Boro yesterday tempt the wolves to risk breathing on him (Boro I mean) and then sending one of their number in to make a false claim? There is no reason that the wolves might not assume what most of the rest of us did, that Nerwen would be saved by the herbalist last night, in which case their situation would be getting desperate and they’d be prepared to take risks in order to get a kill.
An appearance by Boro himself would therefore be very welcome for a number of reasons.

Inziladun · 10-31-2016, 10:07 AM

Quote:

Originally Posted by Legate of Amon Lanc

This just caught my eye, care to share why you think so?

I guess it's just that she hasn't been very involved. That could also be said for the ones I said I would consider for a lynch.

10-31-2016, 08:58 AM	#3
Kuruharan Regal Dwarven Shade Join Date: Jan 2002 Location: A Remote Dwarven Hold Posts: 3,593	Numbers Post Here is the latest run of numbers on a no-lynch scenario, discounting any saves. DAY ONE McCaber Nerwen Player 3 Player 4 Player 5 Player 6 Player 7 Baddie 8 Baddie 9 Baddie 10 DAY TWO McCaber Nerwen Player 3 Player 4 Player 5 Player 6 Player 7 Baddie 8 Baddie 9 Baddie 10 DAY THREE Player 3 Player 4 Player 5 Player 6 Player 7 Baddie 8 Baddie 9 Baddie 10 Dead McCaber Nerwen DAY FOUR Player 4 Player 5 Player 6 Player 7 Baddie 8 Baddie 9 Baddie 10 Dead McCaber Nerwen Player 3 DAY FIVE Player 5 Player 6 Player 7 Baddie 8 Baddie 9 Baddie 10 Dead McCaber Nerwen Player 3 Player 4 DAY SIX Player 6 Player 7 Baddie 8 Baddie 9 Baddie 10 Dead McCaber Nerwen Player 3 Player 4 Player 5 Now, my belief is we still have a few saves left in the can...at least I sure hope so. That being said, I think we have reached the point where serious consideration has to be given to lynching. I also want to say right now that I think Legate or Lottie are the only viable choices for Representative toDAY. Player analysis post to come. __________________ ...finding a path that cannot be found, walking a road that cannot be seen, climbing a ladder that was never placed, or reading a paragraph that has no...

10-31-2016, 10:08 AM	#4
Loslote The Werewolf's Companion Join Date: Aug 2009 Location: The Moon Posts: 3,021	First off, I regret to inform you that I will be even less available than I had hoped toDay. It turns out tonight is going to be the only clear night all week, so I have to run an observing session for the class I'm TAing - which means I will have to leave an hour before DL, and won't have as much time in between classes as I thought I might. Since I don't know how much I'll be on, I will say that I do think we need to start lynching - the numbers for the passive scenario are no longer in our favor, so we need to start making moves. If I had to vote for someone to lynch toDay, I would say ++Lommy. I don't think Boro is playing very wolf-like - he's playing a lot quieter than usual, that's for sure, but when he's a wolf, I'm pretty sure he tends to be a louder, more aggressive wolf, not a quieter one. I wouldn't go for a lynch on him just based on him being quiet so far. Similarly with Shasta - I just don't think we have enough on him yet, and what I have seen doesn't strike me as being too far off the norm for him. Lalaith and Zil I am concerned about, but I think my suspicion of Lommy is the more concrete of the three. Her tone in general has felt like she's trying to play it cool and like she always does, and she's been jumping on suspicions (like my Nerwen idea) too readily. I would go for her if I had to choose right now. I would be happy with Legate or maybe even Kuru for rep toDay. I see no reason thus far to distrust Kuru's claim, and Legate has seemed trustworthy all game - and I trust that both of them will not deviate very far from the will of the people. Edit: xed with Kuru and Zil __________________ I have loved the stars too fondly to be fearful of the night. Double Fenris

10-31-2016, 10:17 AM	#5
Loslote The Werewolf's Companion Join Date: Aug 2009 Location: The Moon Posts: 3,021	I agree with Kuru that a Lommy-Lalaith pack would make a lot of sense, with how they've interacted and how they've almost played around each other, avoiding stepping on each other's toes. I don't know that Lommy and Zil are likely packmates - they both jumped on my Nerwen idea, and I think were the two loudest supporters of it, and I think if they were packmates they would have tried to split their forces rather than throwing all of their wolves into the same basket. That would leave either Shasta or Boro as the third packmate, and I am inclined to say it would be Shasta, since I don't think a Borowolf would be playing as quietly as he has been thus far. (Also I keep imaging what would happen if Kuru and Legate were wolves, and it remains a horrifying thought. If you two are wolves, massive kudos, guys. ) __________________ I have loved the stars too fondly to be fearful of the night. Double Fenris

10-31-2016, 11:16 AM	#12
Kuruharan Regal Dwarven Shade Join Date: Jan 2002 Location: A Remote Dwarven Hold Posts: 3,593	A Request I would like to ask everyone, if at all possible, to post a player analysis some time in the near future and not wait until the tail end of the DAY to do so...or fail to do player analysis at all. We know there are Innocents in the Unknown column so please be helpful and share your thoughts. If we lynch toDAY we need to do our best to make sure we get it right. Not to put too fine a point on it, but for the Unknown Innocents it is in your own self-interest to do so. __________________ ...finding a path that cannot be found, walking a road that cannot be seen, climbing a ladder that was never placed, or reading a paragraph that has no...