Werewolf CXI - The Black Breath Ward

[Lalaith]

I don't even get the pun. I'm so embarrassed. Maybe just lynch me for sheer slow-wittedness.

[Inziladun]

Ok, so the rules state:

The conspirators may only converse during Night phases. Each Night, they choose one person (by sending me a PM), to whom they whisper dark thoughts. Once demoralized by the conspirators, a patient lives through the Day, but if not treated, succumbs to their despair during the next Night and dies the following Dawn. (Example: Sally is targeted Night 2. I am notified of this by PM at the start of Day 3, and am dead at the start of Day 4.)

If the Conspirators' target isn't blocked by Bard or healed by the herbalist, xe is gone Day 2 after they are afflicted, right? So it would take six Days to take out three villagers?

Ten players, three Conspiarators. If no one is submitted to the guards for removal, is it possible to just wait things out?

[Loslote]

Originally Posted by Inziladun

Ok, so the rules state:



If the Conspirators' target isn't blocked by Bard or healed by the herbalist, xe is gone Day 2 after they are afflicted, right? So it would take six Days to take out three villagers?

Ten players, three Conspiarators. If no one is submitted to the guards for removal, is it possible to just wait things out?

We lose someone every Day starting on Day 2, and I'm pretty sure we only win if we survive with a Gifted, which makes it a much more risky strategy to try to wait out the plague. It's not just numbers vs numbers - we need to give our Gifteds the best possible chance of survival if we want to win.

[Inziladun]

Originally Posted by Loslote

We lose someone every Day starting on Day 2, and I'm pretty sure we only win if we survive with a Gifted, which makes it a much more risky strategy to try to wait out the plague. It's not just numbers vs numbers - we need to give our Gifteds the best possible chance of survival if we want to win.

But does calling the guards not endanger the Gifteds?

[Legate of Amon Lanc]

Originally Posted by Inziladun

But does calling the guards not endanger the Gifteds?

What calling the Guards? If I got it right, that's an event which happens on Day 5 spontaneously (or 6??? Clarification here, sally? When exactly does it happen? Evening of Day 5? Morning of Day 5? Morning of Day 6?). So the game ends on that Day in any case, just depends of what is the ratio in the village and whether the Gifteds are still alive. Am I reading it right?

[Inziladun]

Originally Posted by Legate of Amon Lanc

What calling the Guards? If I got it right, that's an event which happens on Day 5 spontaneously (or 6??? Clarification here, sally? When exactly does it happen? Evening of Day 5? Morning of Day 5? Morning of Day 6?). So the game ends on that Day in any case, just depends of what is the ratio in the village and whether the Gifteds are still alive. Am I reading it right?

I was talking about this:

Originally Posted by the Admin Thread

The representative informs me (by private message) of one person they wish to have removed from the Ward. During the Night, the target will be dispatched; like with those who succumb to the Black Breath, no body will be left as evidence, leaving no indication of whether the person was a conspirator or a victim.

On an unrelated note, I propose that anyone afflicted by the Black Breath, fearful as they may be, not announce their condition in an appeal to the Herbalist. I can see an easy way for Conspirators to sow confusion that way.

[Legate of Amon Lanc]

Originally Posted by Inziladun

On an unrelated note, I propose that anyone afflicted by the Black Breath, fearful as they may be, not announce their condition in an appeal to the Herbalist. I can see an easy way for Conspirators to sow confusion that way.

I disagree. (Technical note: according to the rules, nobody is allowed to actually "announce" it, but they can make hints, of course.) If all the villagers, from the next Day on, avoid saying things like "I am not feeling well" just as a banter and only say it when they are actually being affected by the Black Breath, then it could be a decent tool for the village, if the Herbalist cooperates. Because then if one Wolf decides to sow confusion into this and pretends to be sick, then we have two people on the thread who say "oh I slept really badly toNight", and it is clear one of them is probably sick and the other probably an impostor Wolf. Granted, we don't know the roles, so it may be a problem, and if neither of them dies, we don't know whether it is because they were cured, resp which of them was cured, or if they are both Wolves, or whatever. But it is at least something to process; like if one person keeps constantly whining how sick they are and still they aren't dying, then it is bound to become suspicious. But of course, that's just my opinion.

[Legate of Amon Lanc]

Originally Posted by Loslote

Since what we suffer from most of all is a lack of information, I think we should all explicitly state our intentions in the case that we are elected representative. Maybe not names, necessarily, although I do think a name would be nice later in the day when we are close to voting, but we should spell out our general philosophies and strategies early in the Day so that we have a framework to build on later.

Good one. Even though I believe we should go a step further and actually say who we would vote for if we were elected the Representative.

My intentions for Day 1 as it is: I am not 100% sure about that, but I would consider not sending a lynch the first Day at all. I would, however, also support a public opinion (unless by some inexplicable chain of events it was absolutely contrary to all human logic in my opinion, but in that case I don't assume people would choose me in the first place).

MORE IMPORTANTLY: I believe we should elect someone we can trust. Basically the most innocent. If we get the opinions from everyone (preferably early enough before DL!), then the vote can also be based on that.

Originally Posted by Nerwen

Just one problem- the admin thread says there's three conspirators, not two.

Ah, right. That makes it a slightly worse theory, then. Well, the question stands anyway. But that puts us much more back towards a "normal" game-style. We just have slightly better chances thanks to effectively having something like two Rangers, and slightly worse by having no info whatsoever.

Originally Posted by Kuruharan

1) We can assume that people who are Black Breathed are innocent. It would be one twisted group of...let's call them Wolves for the sake of brevity...who would do in one of their own in a game with this level of anonymity. Not to say it is utterly impossible, but we should assume they would not do this at the beginning.

The problem is that if I am not mistaken, nobody is supposed to say that aloud. They can only hint. (With which I would suggest that all innocents refrain from making any comments regarding their health unless they really are sick. In fact, if we already have one ill person here, maybe too late for toDay.)

Originally Posted by Kuru

2) We cannot trust the intentions of the representative! This is a vital point to establish. The Ward must make clear to the representative the appropriate target selection. The only way to hold the representative accountable is if the target is clear and then punish them if they deviate from the Ward's will.

That makes perfect sense.

Originally Posted by Kuru

3) While I am tentatively inclined to be supportive of Legate's suggestion of not lynching somebody toDAY...I believe the numbers dictate that we will have to eventually. We can't win by just passing the lynch each time.

After correcting my numbers, I agree. But we'll see what exactly we do.

EDIT: x-ed with Zil and Boro

[Kuruharan]

Originally Posted by Legate of Amon Lanc

The problem is that if I am not mistaken, nobody is supposed to say that aloud. They can only hint. (With which I would suggest that all innocents refrain from making any comments regarding their health unless they really are sick. In fact, if we already have one ill person here, maybe too late for toDay.)

Yes, that is correct.

My intention was to state that we could look at their posts after they are definitively gone and feel fairly confident of their innocence.

The utility of this will have to be left for us to determine later.

[Kuruharan]

And when I say "utility" I mean that since we are all operating in the dark there is no guarantee that the innocents were speculating on good information.

But we must work with what we have.

[Kuruharan]

Originally Posted by Lalaith

I don't even get the pun. I'm so embarrassed. Maybe just lynch me for sheer slow-wittedness.

Don't feel bad. The joke was quite stupid.

[Loslote]

If I did my very quick math right, the probability that we lose both Gifteds is about 30%. I would estimate higher, because it isn't just a shot in the dark. All of us here know how to hunt Godteds, and that will be priority number one for the wolves. Not the best odds, in my opinion, but not insurmountable. I still don't like the plan, though. I think it leaves too much up to the wolves.

[Legate of Amon Lanc]

Well the biggest problem I see in it is that even if the whole village agrees not to lynch anyone ever, then if a Wolf manages to infiltrate the Rep even once (for example the Day before the last), they would win. (Or would they? Anyway, you get the point - it basically depends on everyone keeping that strategy all the time. We'd have to keep in line, and not to chicken out at some wrong moment just because we lose a nerve.)

As a counter-argument, I still trust the Gifteds we have would be able to help as well. The WWs have to either try to kill them, or work around them so that they don't waste a kill, etc... so that balances out the lack of knowledge on the innocents' part.

EDIT: x-ed with Zil