Middle-earth What-ifs

[Inziladun]

Originally Posted by Zigûr

So this had me thinking: did Sauron need the One Ring to become a "Dark Lord"? If he hadn't forged the Rings, would he have come up with some other equally fiendishly elaborate master plan, and would it have made him as simultaneously mighty and vulnerable as the Ring did? Would he have become a great tyrant among the Men of Darkness, but nothing more? And if so, would he thus be able to antagonise the Noldor and Númenóreans indefinitely, or would he have become trapped, like Morgoth, in one body, and thus ultimately vulnerable to being militarily defeated and killed?

As far as Númenor is concerned, I think the failure to make the One Ring is a non-issue.
As ME history stood, he had the One in his possession in his struggle against the Númenóreans, and it didn't bring him victory. Even with its power of Command, his troops would not stand against their enemies.

If Sauron had settled for the short-term goal of defeating Númenor (accomplished by guile in using their fear of death), and had not implemented his ring-plan, I think it would have been very possible to see in the Second Age a victory comparable to that envisioned by Gandalf much later, contingent on Sauron regaining the Ring.

'....his victory will be swift and complete: so complete that none can foresee the end of it while this world lasts.'

ROTK The Last Debate

If Sauron had not split his spirit and power by placing it in the Ring, I don't see how Elendil, Gil-galad, Elrond, and Isildur could have done anything against him in the Last Alliance, beyond wounding him bodily. Obviously, no Ring would have meant no opportunity of divesting Sauron of such a large portion of his power to occasion his "maiming" in that event, and eventual permanent disembodiment at the Ring's destruction.

[Kuruharan]

Originally Posted by Inziladun

If Sauron had not split his spirit and power by placing it in the Ring, I don't see how Elendil, Gil-galad, Elrond, and Isildur could have done anything against him in the Last Alliance, beyond wounding him bodily. Obviously, no Ring would have meant no opportunity of divesting Sauron of such a large portion of his power to occasion his "maiming" in that event, and eventual permanent disembodiment at the Ring's destruction.

So for Sauron the Ring was actually something of an albatross.

The Last Alliance did defeat him militarily even with the Ring. Sauron also had a tendency to flee when placed in physical danger so I think the outcome of the War of the Last Alliance might not have been that different with or without the Ring.

[Belegorn]

Originally Posted by Kuruharan

Sauron also had a tendency to flee when placed in physical danger so I think the outcome of the War of the Last Alliance might not have been that different with or without the Ring.

Maybe he does not fight Gil-galad and Elendil?

[Pitchwife]

I take it we're talking about a scenario where none of the Rings of Power were forged, right? No One, no Nine, no Seven, and no Three.

I think Sauron probably wouldn't have enslaved the Men of Harad and Rhûn quite so easily as he did by baiting their kings with Rings, but I have no doubt he would have succeeded nevertheless. If even the Númenóreans fell for his gospel of Melkor he would have had little difficulty of passing himself off as a god (or at least his prophet) to people who never were taught any better. We're talking about Men whose ancestors never rebelled against Melkor-worship like the Edain did, there probably was a Melkorist tradition among them he only had to appeal to.

The Seven never affected the Dwarves much in Sauron's favour. Maybe the Dwarves of Khazad-dûm wouldn't have dug quite so deep for mithril without the Ring held by Durin VI fuelling their greed, and thus wouldn't have awoken the Balrog? An undiminished Dwarven kingdom in Khazad-dûm would have made a difference on the political map, I think.

And then there would be no Elven rings. No preserving a semblance of the Undying Lands in Lórien. Elrond, too, would be diminished, and Gandalf would have no Ring of Fire to help him kindle hearts in a darkening world. Like Sauron himself, the leaders of the resistance against him would be both less vulnerable and less powerful.

[Corsair_Caruso]

Well, hello, everyone! Sorry for my long absence; doctoral school can be a bit life-consuming. :/

As for the idea of no Ring, I had explored a thought such as this some time ago, in a "What if" that involved a marriage between Celebrimbor and Celebrian in Eregion, and Galadriel remaining in Eregion long enough to convince Celebrimbor not to get involved with Annatar in the first place. But, setting that aside...

So, I think we need a "why" before we figure out how it would have changed things. The circumstances greatly effect the outcome.

Let's say, for example, that Celebrimbor was simply a better judge of character and took after Gil-galad and Elrond when they told the ostensible "Annatar" to shove off. Sauron's plan to seduce the Elves to his service has crashed and burned. This is going to **** him off something awful, as he really, REALLY wanted to make use of the Noldor, and now they're behind his reach in that fashion. His next best strategy, assuming he still wants them in his service at all, is to enslave them and, failing that, destroy them all and use human servants or other, less savory characters, to fulfill his dark plans for Endor.

This means war, most likely. Thus, we might find that the War of the Elves and Sauron comes a little sooner than in the "Original Time Line." However, Sauron will not have spent hundreds of years in Eregion and Ost-in-Edhil, which presumably gave him some inside information that he likely used to his advantage in the war. On the other hand, the Noldor of Eregion also don't have the knowledge of Sauron's impending betrayal via their Ring-connection to his. For all they know Annatar is just some creepy dude that rubbed them the wrong way, with no connection to Sauron. In fact, I don't even know if Sauron was on anyone's radar at this point in the Second Age, period. So, everyone is going into this war with less information, but Sauron has the benefit of more surprise on his side, being a generally unknown factor at this point, aside from their knowledge of him from the First Age. This is a whole different ball game, however.

Now, as for Sauron himself, I'm of the opinion that the forging of the One Ring, while making him vulnerable, also made him more powerful while the Ring was in his possession. The Rings with which Sauron was involved in the making, including his own, all increased the natural powers of the bearers, and I'm of the opinion that the One Ring was no different. Yes, it was made to be so potent so as to control the other 19, but I still believe that part of its basic function was also to increase Sauron's own potency of will, power, etc...

On the other hand, he no longer has the Achilles Heel. He can still be wounded and slain by warriors of sufficient power, but not destroyed utterly beyond all hope of eventual repair. I believe that if Sauron was faced by sufficiently potent warriors in the War of the Elves and Sauron, he could be destroyed (as can most Umaiar). He would regenerate in a few centuries to a thousand years, or so, but during that time there would be no major lieutenant (as far as we know) who could hold the empire together while Sauron put himself back together. Sauron could do it when he finally reappeared, but we would have centuries of no Dark Lord.

What kind of consequences would this have on Middle-earth? First of all, no Ulairi. There are some that believe that early shadow began to fall on Númenor because one of the three Numenorean Ringwraiths spent time in his homeland sowing discord and dissent. This could have been especially damaging to the Royal Line if he were a prince of the royal house. Perhaps the early murmurings and questions of rebellion against the Ban were insitigated by a Numenorean Ringbearer before he went wraith.

That is all speculation, however. What we do know is that, if Sauron is destroyed, the provocation of Ar-Pharazôn first against Sauron's overlordship of Endor, and then by Sauron against the Valar, would not occur as in the OTL. Heck, without Sauron's influence on the world, the entire line of Númenor might have turned out differently, and the analogue to Prince Pharazôn In This Time Line may not have tried to seize power. (We may not even have the same people born, period, so, who knows?)

So, assuming a destroyed Sauron, this means a Númenor that either doesn't fall under the shadow, or (more likely) is much less influenced by the shadow and the influence occurs much later in history. This means that there will be fewer Numenorean colonies in Middle-earth, as permanent settlements were, in part, a symptom of rebellion against the Ban of the Valar. Indigenous kingdoms may have risen up in their place, with more guidance from Númenor, maybe client Kingdoms of Middle-men, especially in what would have become Gondor and southern Arnor. Again, lots of speculation.

Eventually, however, Sauron would have shown up again, and perhaps his attention would have turned, as it did OTL, to the Númenoreans, who onc again would have become the dominant power east of the Pelori. While the Annatar guise may not have worked on the Noldor, who is to say it wouldn't on Men, who have much less acute senses than the Eldar. He needn't take the same form, but even if he did, would anyone associate Annatar with Sauron at this point? Perhaps, but not necessarily. The fall might go differently, take longer, and have to work through different people, but I think he could do to the Númenoreans as he did OTL, or perhaps have caused a civil war, or simply a break against the Eldar and sent them against Gil-galad. There are lots of possibilities.

This has all assumed Sauron's destruction in the earlier War. This is far from assured, and if he DID lose, but survive, then his wrath would be all the greater, but without the humbling experience of his destruction to add to his caution. If the Númenoreans were involved as in OTL, then his attention is drawn to them, if not, then he remains fixed on Middle-earth, most likely.

Now, it was brought up above that without the Ring of Durin pushing the Longbeards in later centuries to delve too greedily and too deep, that Khazad-dum would not be lost. I think this is a strong possibility, but I think we need to consider more immediate consequences.

The Noldor of Eregion and the Longbeards of Khazad-dum had a friendship the likes of which was unheard of between Elves and Dwarves. The Doors of Durin were just one example of the marvels of joint Elven-Dwarven lore and craft. Imagine if that relationship had been allowed to flourish? What kind of cultural growth, new advances in craft, in art, in new ideas and forms of expression could have come from the alliance of Eregion and Khazad-dum? I think that Celebrimbor and the Longbeards would have enriched one another and made one another much stronger. If this is the case, Sauron might have come across a much stronger Eregion later on, one which had a strong alliance with the mightiest Dwarven stronghold in Arda's history, which had likewise been enriched and strengthened over the centuries without a a Dark Lord's interference. In a way, I mourn for what could have been.

[Belegorn]

I think maybe things would have gone differently had he not made the Ring as far as his plans go. The Rings were meant to control the free people and they would be his slaves. I think in Morgoth's Ring Sauron would rather have slaves than destroy all his enemies. I do not know how he would go about enslaving all the other people. With the Rings enslavement only had limited success since the Dwarves were immune to that sort of thing and the Elves were able to sense their danger before it happened. Only the Men got ensnared. I think also he might have become less powerful with continued effort to dominate the people he became a tyrant over so maybe his sphere of influence grows less over the years. I think the Ring might have given him an endless reservior so that he did not have too much worry about wasting away his power like Melkor did.

How much did the Ring help in his influence over the people of Númenor aside from their own eagerness for immortality? When Sauron wore the Ring Tolkien says that he is actually more powerful, but even so he lost to the Last Alliance and was defeated in combat by Gil-galad and Elendil. He also could not even get his army to fight the Númenóreans when they were still plentiful as a people. So he would be wielding less power in the 2nd Age to some degree against his enemies.

There is the 3rd Age where he almost topples M-E anyway without the One. His enemies have grown weak through infighting, and skirmishes with men out of the east and south for a long time and he likewise had the Witch-king overthrow the North Kingdom. I'd think then that if he was still able to get Númenor toppled then he would probably just wear his enemies out over a long period of time, if not then he'd be done. Also I'd have to think about the Istari. Would Saruman have tried to become a tyrant himself, or would have have remained true to his mission? Apparently Saruman turned aside from his mission because he was in haste to get things done. Obviously he and Gandalf would not be expected to duel it out with Sauron anyway since they were to bring the people together to fight against a common foe.

[Zigûr]

Originally Posted by Belegorn

I think also he might have become less powerful with continued effort to dominate the people he became a tyrant over so maybe his sphere of influence grows less over the years. I think the Ring might have given him an endless reservior so that he did not have too much worry about wasting away his power like Melkor did.

I think this is a good point. We know Morgoth became diminished over thousands of years of spending his power on projects, as well as leeching himself into the earth. Sauron didn't need to go quite so far for the very reason that Morgoth had done it for him, but he still needed some way of taking full advantage of the Morgoth-element in nature as well as tethering himself and his greatest works to Middle-earth indefinitely. Otherwise, he would probably have spent his comparatively small amount of native power very quickly. He might have reached the point where, if defeated and probably executed by his enemies, he would have been incapable of embodying himself again.

So the Ring, or something like it, was probably necessary, and would have been quite clearly so to his intelligent if evil mind. Note that he started building Barad-dûr around 1000, but did not finish it until after he had forged the Ring around 1600. Presumably he knew he needed the Ring or something like it to complete these kinds of projects. It seems a little odd to imagine the foundations (which were the part bound to the Ring) being made after the rest of the structure, but there you go. Perhaps a scenario where he didn't make the Ring (at least by choice) isn't very likely.

As Corsair_Caruso has pointed out, a more likely scenario is a failure to collaborate with the Gwaith-i-Mírdain. This would probably have been the most realistic alternative to what actually happened, and the one with the best outcome. As Elrond states, "It would be better if the Three had never been." (Although he may specifically be referring to a scenario in which the One is regained by Sauron there; the phrasing is a little unclear in context).

It's been noted that Sauron was still defeated by the Last Alliance even while he had the Ring, which is a legitimate observation. I think on the other hand, however, the flaw with Sauron's plan was that he didn't have time to prepare properly for war with Gil-galad and Elendil. He had expected, I believe, that the Númenórean invasion of Valinor would simply force the Valar to wipe out the Númenóreans, not that Eru would intervene in a way which pushed the Faithful to Middle-earth and destroyed Sauron's body. That doesn't really relate to the rest of the issue, but I think it does remind that there were practical considerations to Sauron's policies as well. The Ring was not necessarily an "albatross" as Kuru put it but it certainly couldn't do everything on its own: it made Sauron's work easier, but not effortless.

[Kuruharan]

Originally Posted by Zigûr

I think this is a good point. We know Morgoth became diminished over thousands of years of spending his power on projects, as well as leeching himself into the earth. Sauron didn't need to go quite so far for the very reason that Morgoth had done it for him, but he still needed some way of taking full advantage of the Morgoth-element in nature as well as tethering himself and his greatest works to Middle-earth indefinitely. Otherwise, he would probably have spent his comparatively small amount of native power very quickly. He might have reached the point where, if defeated and probably executed by his enemies, he would have been incapable of embodying himself again.

So the Ring, or something like it, was probably necessary, and would have been quite clearly so to his intelligent if evil mind. Note that he started building Barad-dûr around 1000, but did not finish it until after he had forged the Ring around 1600. Presumably he knew he needed the Ring or something like it to complete these kinds of projects. It seems a little odd to imagine the foundations (which were the part bound to the Ring) being made after the rest of the structure, but there you go. Perhaps a scenario where he didn't make the Ring (at least by choice) isn't very likely.

As Corsair_Caruso has pointed out, a more likely scenario is a failure to collaborate with the Gwaith-i-Mírdain. This would probably have been the most realistic alternative to what actually happened, and the one with the best outcome. As Elrond states, "It would be better if the Three had never been." (Although he may specifically be referring to a scenario in which the One is regained by Sauron there; the phrasing is a little unclear in context).

It's been noted that Sauron was still defeated by the Last Alliance even while he had the Ring, which is a legitimate observation. I think on the other hand, however, the flaw with Sauron's plan was that he didn't have time to prepare properly for war with Gil-galad and Elendil. He had expected, I believe, that the Númenórean invasion of Valinor would simply force the Valar to wipe out the Númenóreans, not that Eru would intervene in a way which pushed the Faithful to Middle-earth and destroyed Sauron's body. That doesn't really relate to the rest of the issue, but I think it does remind that there were practical considerations to Sauron's policies as well. The Ring was not necessarily an "albatross" as Kuru put it but it certainly couldn't do everything on its own: it made Sauron's work easier, but not effortless.

Two related points:

First, while you are probably right that some item like the Ring was necessary to provide that tie to the world that would allow Sauron to keep coming back as long as the Ring existed, in a way it embodied a form of pessimism for Sauron in that the Ring provided him a safety valve to come back in case he was defeated. However, it also provided an instant self-destruct tool (although, I can't recall, was that clearly understood at the time?) If I had been Sauron, I think I would have opted against the creation of the Ring and tried to avoid being defeated in the first place.

Second, to pose a silly question, could even the Ring have worked in this manner indefinitely? Say Sauron gets defeated repeatedly but the Ring still exists? Would the power provided by the existence of the Ring allow Sauron to keep coming back until he wins? In thinking about it, my belief is that it wouldn't have. Even in his origins, Sauron was not an infinite being and neither was the Ring an object of infinite power as it was created by a finite being. Given those limitations, I believe eventually one and or both of them could be depleted to the point of final impotence. Not that I think this is a particularly likely scenario, but I'm deliberately posing a hypothetical.

[Inziladun]

Originally Posted by Kuruharan

....some item like the Ring was necessary to provide that tie to the world that would allow Sauron to keep coming back as long as the Ring existed, in a way it embodied a form of pessimism for Sauron in that the Ring provided him a safety valve to come back in case he was defeated.

I don't think Sauron ever considered the idea that he would ever be without the Ring.
The passing of part of his fea into it could have been a mere byproduct of his deliberate act of putting his power in it. That would make the Ring an unintended Horcrux of a sort, pardon the Potterism.

Originally Posted by Kuruharan

Second, to pose a silly question, could even the Ring have worked in this manner indefinitely? Say Sauron gets defeated repeatedly but the Ring still exists? Would the power provided by the existence of the Ring allow Sauron to keep coming back until he wins? In thinking about it, my belief is that it wouldn't have. Even in his origins, Sauron was not an infinite being and neither was the Ring an object of infinite power as it was created by a finite being. Given those limitations, I believe eventually one and or both of them could be depleted to the point of final impotence.

Tolkien touched on this somewhat in Letters # 200:

After the battle with Gilgalad and Elendil, Sauron took a long while to rebuild, longer than he had done after the Downfall of Númenor (I suppose because each building-up used up some of the inherent energy of the spirit, which might be called the 'will' or the effective link between the indestructible mind and being and the realization of its imagination.

So I think you might be correct. Each re-embodiment for Sauron would have taken longer, and resulted in a weaker form. The problem for his Third Age enemies was that they lacked the power of the Last Alliance, and destroying his physical form while the Ring existed would in practice have been close to impossible,

[Zigûr]

Originally Posted by Kuruharan

However, it also provided an instant self-destruct tool (although, I can't recall, was that clearly understood at the time?) If I had been Sauron, I think I would have opted against the creation of the Ring and tried to avoid being defeated in the first place.

It's a good point. It seems that Sauron knew the Ring could be destroyed at Mount Doom. Presumably otherwise he wouldn't have panicked so much when Frodo put the Ring on at the Sammath Naur. On the other hand, given that Sauron never imagined his enemies trying to destroy the Ring before that moment, I'd argue that even if he knew "academically" that the Ring could be destroyed in that manner, presumably the idea of it actually being destroyed never crossed his mind.

It reminds me of that existentialist thought experiment: "Technically there's nothing stopping me from jumping off this cliff, but why would I?" Technically the Ring could be destroyed by melting it in the Fires of Doom, but to Sauron I imagine such an idea would be completely absurd, not just for him but for anyone: "Why would anyone destroy the Ring when they could use it?" So presumably, in Sauron's mind, the vulnerability of the Ring was so absurdly unlikely to be a problem that he didn't consider it to be a problem at all.

EDIT: It also occurs to me that this is a good additional counterargument to the idea that Sauron left the Ring behind in Mordor when he went to Númenor (which is kind of implied in "Of the Rings of Power and the Third Age" but refuted by Letter 211). Letter 211 aside, it seems incredibly unlikely to me that Sauron would ever have voluntarily taken the Ring off for any reason ever. I imagine that, essentially, he expected to be wearing it forever.

Originally Posted by Kuruharan

Second, to pose a silly question, could even the Ring have worked in this manner indefinitely? Say Sauron gets defeated repeatedly but the Ring still exists? Would the power provided by the existence of the Ring allow Sauron to keep coming back until he wins? In thinking about it, my belief is that it wouldn't have. Even in his origins, Sauron was not an infinite being and neither was the Ring an object of infinite power as it was created by a finite being. Given those limitations, I believe eventually one and or both of them could be depleted to the point of final impotence. Not that I think this is a particularly likely scenario, but I'm deliberately posing a hypothetical.

I think you have a point. On the one hand, it isn't clear how the Ring could eventually "run out of power" because it seems like the whole point of it was to operate in a way which didn't involve the expenditure of power. I feel as if the power imbued in it was "transformed", in a sense, which made its existence static. That doesn't mean the power is "infinite" - it could only do a certain amount of "work" within the bounds of the power bound in it and its wielder - but the power it did have was contained indefinitely. I think it makes sense to an extent to think of the Ring as a "machine" (albeit one without moving parts) which gives some kind of mechanical advantage, although the "Ring as amplifier" explanation is a bit problematic in my opinion.

At the same time, so much of Arda is entropic. I can't help but imagine that if Sauron's body continued to be destroyed, for instance, he would have severe trouble rebuilding it eventually, Ring or no Ring, because the Ring probably couldn't be used in that way. Then another might claim the Ring and wield it. Perhaps the Ring might eventually wear down and lose its potency, but I believe that Sauron himself would first.

I suppose that's the thing, though. The Ring was made for a very specific purpose which was never properly fulfilled. In Sauron's perfect world, the original Ringbearers would have fallen under his control, with everything else to follow. Instead that didn't work, he had to fight a war for the other Rings, he lost a body in Númenor, he lost another body against the Last Alliance, and he lost the Ring. If none of that had happened, maybe Sauron and the Ring would have kept each other "alive" for a very, very long time.

[Kuruharan]

Originally Posted by Zigûr

If none of that had happened, maybe Sauron and the Ring would have kept each other "alive" for a very, very long time.

Undoubtedly so, especially since if Sauron had won the War of the Ring his dominion would have been established effectively forever, barring intervention of Eru or the Valar (which I think probably would have happened under the circumstances).

[denethorthefirst]

If Sauron hadn't created the one ring he would not be able to come back in the third age (He was fully incarnated at the time of the war of the last alliance).
If he would have been able to become the dark lord without the one ring is another matter. Some say that the one ring had the very narrow purpose of only dominating the other rings. If you take that view the one ring was essentially a failure and not necessary for Sauron to become the powerful ruler he was in the original timeline.
On the other hand, some speculate that the one ring made it possible for Sauron to somehow control the "Morgoth Element" ... if you take that view the one ring was actually not only successful but the foundation and cornerstone of Saurons rise to power.

If Borormir had claimed the kingship I'm certain that this decision (and the ensuing civil war) would have destroyed gondor. There are a lot of houses more noble (and with connections to the house of Anarion) than the House of Hurin. The decision to let the stewards rule was a compromise between the great houses of gondor to prevent another civil war and it worked so well precisely because the stewards were a relatively lesser house that couldn't hope to claim kingship and was dependent on the other great houses - a house of cards that falls if a steward decides to rock the boat.